🛰️ VSAT: Someone Just Bet $17 MILLION on Viasat's Satellite Comeback Story!

📅 August 27, 2025 | 🔥 Volcanic Unusual Activity Detected

---

🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just dropped $17 MILLION into VSAT call options in a massive strategy that's literally off the charts! 🐋 This trade scored a nuclear 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score that's 7,290x larger than typical VSAT trades - literally unprecedented activity that we've NEVER seen before! With VSAT rocketing +248.1% YTD to $33.17, someone's making a massive bet that this satellite communications giant has serious upside as space internet competition heats up and ViaSat-3 constellation deployment advances! 🚀

---

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Here's the monster trade flow that hit the tape at 10:33 AM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
10:33:41	VSAT20260116P25	SELL	PUT	$25	$7.4M	27K	13	26,850	$30.68	$2.75
10:33:41	VSAT20260116C35	BUY	CALL	$35	$12M	27K	118	26,850	$30.68	$4.44
10:33:41	VSAT20270115C25	SELL	CALL	$25	$17M	13K	14K	13,425	$30.68	$12.61

Expiration Dates:
- Put Sell & Call Buy: January 16, 2026 (142 days away!)
- Call Sell: January 15, 2027 (507 days away!)

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score - that's "once in a lifetime" territory! 🌋

Here's the translation for us regular folks:

The Short Put Strategy (Bullish Signal):
- Sold 26,850 puts at $25 strike for $2.75 premium each
- Collecting $7.4M in immediate premium
- Obligated to buy VSAT shares at $25 if assigned (18% below current price!)
- Breakeven: $22.25 ($25 - $2.75)

The Long Call Strategy (Ultra Bullish):
- Bought 26,850 calls at $35 strike for $4.44 each
- Paying $12M in premium
- Right to buy VSAT at $35 through January 2026
- Breakeven: $39.44 ($35 + $4.44)

The Long-Term Call Sale (Income Generation):
- Sold 13,425 calls at $25 strike for $12.61 each (2027 expiration!)
- Collecting $17M in premium
- Capping upside at $25 but collecting massive premium

The Combined Strategy:
- Net credit collected: $12.4M ($7.4M + $17M - $12M)
- This whale is saying: "I'm so bullish on VSAT long-term, I'll collect $12.4M betting it stays above $25 and participate in upside to $35!"
- Unusualness: 7,290x larger than average VSAT trade!

Translation: Someone with serious institutional money is betting the farm that VSAT has found its bottom and is headed back toward $35-40! 🌙

---

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at VSAT's incredible YTD performance:

Key Metrics:
- 🚀 YTD Return: +248.1%
- 📊 Current Price: $33.17

• 📈 Market Cap: $3.79B
• 🎢 Volatility: High but stabilizing
• ⚡ Business: Radio & TV Broadcasting & Communications Equipment

Technical Levels:
- 🎯 Current: $33.17
- 🚀 Bull Target: $35 (call strike - 5.5% upside)
- 🛡️ Put Safety: $25 (24.5% downside cushion)
- 💚 Breakeven Zone: $22.25-$39.44
- 📊 52-Week High: $36.89 (within striking distance!)

Translation: VSAT has been on an absolute moonshot, up 248% YTD! This whale is betting the space race isn't over yet! 🛰️

---

🛰️ Company Overview

Viasat Inc (VSAT) is a $3.79B satellite communications giant providing bandwidth technologies across three key segments:

🌍 Communication Services: Residential and enterprise broadband via satellite
🛡️ Defense & Advanced Technologies: Government satellite solutions and military communications
📡 Broadcasting Equipment: Radio & TV broadcasting infrastructure

The company operates one of the world's most advanced satellite networks, competing directly with SpaceX's Starlink while serving government, aviation, and residential markets globally.

---

🎪 Catalysts

Buckle up! Here's what's driving this satellite stock:

🛰️ ViaSat-3 Constellation Deployment - 2026

• ViaSat-3 F2 launching early 2026 (previously delayed from 2025)
• ViaSat-3 F3 following in mid-2026
• Full constellation to provide 100+ Mbps speeds globally across Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania
• F1 satellite currently operational at ~10% capacity due to antenna deployment issues

💰 Ligado Networks Agreement - $568M Windfall

• $420M lump sum due October 31, 2025
• $100M payment due March 31, 2026
• Quarterly payments of ~$16M starting September 2025 (growing 3% annually through 2107!)
• Total agreement worth $568M in fiscal 2026 alone

🚁 Strong Defense & Aviation Growth

• Defense revenues up 20% year-over-year in latest quarter
• Aviation segment growing 13% YoY in commercial flights, 18% in business jets
• STARLUX Airlines full fleet order secured in Asia Pacific
• 1,000+ NexusWave orders with 190 vessels installed (doubling installation rate)

📊 Q1 FY2026 Earnings Beat (August 5, 2025)

• Beat EPS estimate by $0.223 (-$0.43 vs -$0.653 expected)
• $1.17B revenue with 4% YoY growth
• $408M adjusted EBITDA with 35% margin
• $60M positive free cash flow in Q1
• Stock jumped 30.7% following earnings

📅 Next Earnings: November 5, 2025

• Q2 FY2026 results due
• EPS forecast: -$0.48
• Key focus: ViaSat-3 F2 launch timeline updates

---

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive option flow and upcoming catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $40-$45 by early 2026
- ViaSat-3 F2 launches successfully and reaches full capacity
- Ligado payments strengthen balance sheet significantly
- Defense segment continues double-digit growth
- This whale's $35 calls print serious money!

⚖️ Base Case (50% chance)

Target: $28-$35
- Steady progress on satellite deployment
- Continued strength in aviation and defense
- Residential broadband stabilizes despite Starlink competition
- Stock trades within option strike range

😰 Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $22-$27
- ViaSat-3 F2 faces further delays or technical issues
- Starlink competition intensifies in residential market
- General satellite sector rotation
- Still above put assignment at $25 level!

---

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Satellite Safety Net"

• Strategy: Sell $22.50 puts, 45-60 days out
• Premium: ~$1.50-2.00 per contract
• Why it works: Collect premium with 32% downside cushion from current levels
• Risk: Assignment if VSAT drops below $22.50 (unlikely given whale support at $25)

⚖️ Balanced Play: "Mini Space Mission"

• Strategy: Buy $30/$37.50 call spread for December 2025
• Cost: ~$2.50-3.00 per spread
• Max profit: $5.00 per spread (100%+ return)
• Why it works: Limited risk with solid reward if VSAT continues satellite momentum

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Full Satellite YOLO"

• Strategy: Buy $35 calls for January 2026 (following the whale!)
• Cost: ~$4.50-5.00 per contract
• Why it works: Same exact thesis as the whale's $12M bet
• Risk: Total loss if VSAT doesn't reach $40+ by expiration

---

⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could derail this satellite mission:

• Technical Risk: ViaSat-3 satellites have deployment challenges (F1 at only 10% capacity)
• Competition: Starlink continues eating market share in residential broadband
• Execution Risk: Satellite launches and deployments are complex and risky
• Valuation Stretch: Already up 248% YTD - a lot of good news may be priced in
• Capital Intensive: Satellite business requires massive upfront investments
• Regulatory Risk: Space and telecom regulations could change

---

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made the BIGGEST bet we've EVER seen on VSAT - a $17 million position that's 7,290x larger than average! This isn't just unusual, it's VOLCANIC! 🌋

Here's your action plan:

If you own VSAT:
- Hold tight through ViaSat-3 F2 launch in early 2026
- Consider taking some profits above $35
- Watch for Ligado payment confirmations in October/November

If you're watching:
- Any pullback toward $25-28 could be a gift (whale put support at $25!)
- ViaSat-3 F2 launch is the next major catalyst
- November earnings could provide roadmap clarity

If you're bearish:
- You're fighting a $17 million institutional position
- Wait for clear technical breakdown below $25
- This whale has deep pockets and long-term conviction

Mark your calendar: October 31st (Ligado $420M payment), November 5th (earnings), and early 2026 (ViaSat-3 F2 launch) are going to be WILD! 🛰️

Remember: When someone bets $17 million on a satellite stock that's already up 248%, they either have inside knowledge of the space race heating up, or they're about to fund someone else's vacation. Given VSAT's defense growth, upcoming satellite launches, and massive Ligado windfall, I'm betting on the former! 💫

---

⚠️ Options involve significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. This massive satellite bet is extraordinary and not typical. Satellite stocks are particularly volatile due to technical and regulatory risks. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big space money is doing!