🌋 UPST Whale Alert: $16.3M in Options Just Hit the Tape!
Someone just dropped $16.3 MILLION on UPST options - including a single $10M call bet that's 3,982x larger than the average UPST trade! 🤯 This isn't your nei...
🌋 UPST Whale Alert: $16.3M in Options Just Hit the Tape!
📅 August 22, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just dropped $16.3 MILLION on UPST options - including a single $10M call bet that's 3,982x larger than the average UPST trade! 🤯 This isn't your neighbor Bob trading - this is institutional money positioning HARD ahead of Q3 earnings on November 6. With the stock at $70.35 and showing +13% YTD gains, big money is betting on an explosive move higher!
🏢 Company Overview
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST)
- What They Do: AI-powered lending platform connecting borrowers with banks
- Market Cap: $6.14 billion
- Industry: Fintech/AI Lending Services
- Employees: 1,193
- Key Products: Personal loans, auto loans, HELOCs, small-dollar loans
Upstart uses proprietary AI to revolutionize lending - think of it as the Tesla of loan approvals! 🤖 Their cloud-based platform helps banks approve more loans with better risk assessment than traditional FICO scores.
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 Today's Massive Trades (All at 11:05:35 AM)
| Time | Symbol | Side | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | Size | Spot | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:05:35 | UPST | MID | CALL | 2025-08-22 | $10M | $66 | 24K | 22,439 | $70.35 | $4.58 |
| 11:05:35 | UPST | MID | CALL | 2025-08-29 | $4M | $72 | 24K | 22,439 | $70.35 | $1.79 |
| 11:05:35 | UPST | MID | PUT | 2025-08-29 | $1.4M | $63 | 23K | 22,439 | $70.35 | $0.63 |
| 11:05:35 | UPST | MID | PUT | 2025-08-22 | $853K | $59 | 23K | 22,439 | $70.35 | $0.38 |
🔥 Unusual Score: 10/10 [🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴] VOLCANIC!
Translation for us regular folks: This $10M trade is literally OFF THE CHARTS - we've NEVER seen anything like this in UPST! It's 3,982x larger than the average trade. This is like seeing Godzilla walk through Times Square! 🦖
🤓 What This Actually Means
Someone just made THREE massive bullish bets:
1. $10M on $66 calls expiring TODAY - They're betting UPST stays above $66 (already ITM by $4.35!)
2. $4M on $72 calls for next week - Looking for a breakout above $72
3. $2.25M in protective puts - Smart hedging, but notice it's only 14% of the bullish bet size!
The bullish-to-bearish ratio is 6:1 - this whale is CONFIDENT! 🐋
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
Looking at the YTD chart:
UPST Year-to-Date Performance Chart
- Current Price: $68.72
- YTD Performance: +13.03% 💚
- Key Support: $60.80 (start of year price)
- Resistance: $85 (March highs)
- Volatility: 91.1% - This thing moves like a rocket! 🚀
The stock has been building a beautiful base between $60-$70 since May, coiling like a spring ready to explode!
🎪 Upcoming Catalysts
🔥 Near-Term Catalysts:
- Q3 2025 Earnings: November 6, 2025 - THE BIG ONE!
- Partnership Expansion: Recently signed Cobalt Credit Union - more coming!
- Short Squeeze Setup: High short interest + strong financials = potential fireworks!
📊 Recent Performance:
- Q2 2025: Beat EPS by $0.36, revenue up 101.6% YoY! 🎯
- Full-year guidance: $1.01B revenue (massive growth!)
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
🚀 Bull Case: $108 (35% chance)
If AI expansion continues and partnerships accelerate, we're looking at $108+ by year-end. That's 57% upside from here!
😐 Base Case: $73 (50% chance)
Steady growth gets us to analyst consensus of $73.38. Modest but solid 6.5% gain.
😰 Bear Case: $50 (15% chance)
If macro headwinds hit or credit quality deteriorates, we could revisit $50. That's -27% downside.
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "The Covered Call Collector"
- Buy 100 shares at $70.35
- Sell Sep 6 $75 calls for $2.50 premium
- Max Gain: $715 (10.2% in 2 weeks!)
- Why it works: Collect premium while waiting for the move
⚖️ Balanced: "The Earnings Momentum Play"
- Buy Nov 1 $72 calls at $4.20
- Sell Nov 1 $80 calls at $1.80
- Net Cost: $240 per spread
- Max Gain: $560 (233% return!)
- Why it works: Captures pre-earnings run-up with defined risk
🚀 Aggressive: "YOLO with Training Wheels"
- Buy Sep 6 $72 calls at $1.90
- Buy Sep 6 $65 puts at $0.85 (protection)
- Total Cost: $275
- Breakeven: $72.75 up / $64.25 down
- Why it works: Play both sides of a big move - someone knows something!
⚠️ Risk Factors
Real talk about what could go wrong:
- 📉 Interest Rate Sensitivity: If rates spike, lending demand tanks
- 💸 $1.43B Debt Load: Heavy debt burden needs monitoring
- 🏦 Competition: Legacy lenders and fintechs are gunning for market share
- 🎢 91% Implied Volatility: Options are EXPENSIVE - you're paying for excitement!
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: When someone drops $10M on calls expiring TODAY, they're not gambling - they KNOW something. This is the most unusual options activity we've EVER seen in UPST (literally a 10/10 volcanic score!).
With Q2 earnings crushing it (+101% revenue growth!), new partnerships rolling in, and short squeeze potential building, this AI lender is setting up for a massive move.
Action Plan:
- If you own it: Hold tight and consider selling covered calls into strength
- If you're watching: Set alerts at $72 (breakout) and $65 (support)
- If you're bearish: That $10M whale disagrees with you!
Mark your calendar for November 6 earnings - that's when the real fireworks begin! 🎆
Disclaimer: Options trading involves significant risk and isn't suitable for all investors. These massive trades suggest institutional positioning, but remember - even whales can be wrong! Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice, just one trader sharing unusual activity with another! 💪