🚀 UPST: Someone Just Dropped $12.6 MILLION on AI Lending's Comeback Kid!

📅 August 28, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just unleashed $12.6 MILLION in option trades on Upstart (UPST) - the AI lending platform that's up 21.3% YTD and just turned profitable for the first time since 2022! 🐋 With an 8.5/10 EXTREME unusual score that's 1,035x larger than average, someone's betting BIG that this AI-powered fintech is about to explode higher! Translation: When institutional money drops $12.6M on a stock that just achieved GAAP profitability with 102% revenue growth, you better pay attention! 👀

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Let me break down this monster flow that hit the tape at 15:54:44:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Expiration	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price	Option Symbol
15:54:44	UPST	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$72	$2.6M	12K	25K	10,000	$73.87	$2.63	UPST20250829C72
15:54:44	UPST	BUY	CALL	2025-09-05	$76	$1.8M	11K	206	10,000	$73.87	$1.84	UPST20250905C76
15:54:44	UPST	BUY	PUT	2025-09-05	$66	$810K	10K	230	10,000	$73.87	$0.81	UPST20250905P66

Total Premium: $5.21 MILLION (displayed trades only - full flow was $12.6M!)

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored an 8.5/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's "once in a lifetime" territory! 🌋

Here's the translation for us regular folks:

The Ultra Short-Term Call (Expires TOMORROW!):
- Buying $72 calls expiring August 29 (1 day away!)
- Breakeven: $74.63
- Needs just $0.76 move (1%) to start printing
- This is a YOLO bet on immediate upside!

The Weekly Call Play:
- Buying $76 calls expiring September 5 (8 days out)
- Breakeven: $77.84
- Needs 5.4% move to profit
- Betting on momentum continuation

The Protective Put:
- Buying $66 puts as insurance
- Only $810K vs $4.4M in calls = OVERWHELMINGLY BULLISH
- Just hedging downside below $66 (10.6% down)

The Combined Message:
- Net bullish exposure: $3.6M ($4.4M calls - $810K puts)
- Unusualness: 1,035x larger than average UPST option trade!
- Someone knows something about tomorrow's action!

Translation: This isn't just bullish - it's "betting the farm on an immediate move" bullish! Someone with serious conviction thinks UPST is about to rip higher RIGHT NOW! 🚀

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🏢 Company Overview

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is revolutionizing lending with AI that's literally destroying traditional credit scoring! Here's what you need to know:

• What They Do: AI-powered lending marketplace connecting consumers to 100+ banks
• Market Cap: $6.63 billion
• Sector: Finance Services - specifically AI-driven lending tech
• The Magic: Their AI processes 1,500+ data points vs traditional FICO's handful
• Automation Rate: 92% of loans approved instantly by AI (no human needed!)

Translation: They're the Tesla of lending - using AI to do what banks take weeks to do, but in seconds! 🤖

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at the YTD performance, UPST is showing serious resilience:

Key Metrics:
- 📈 YTD Return: +21.32% (solid in this market!)
- 📊 Current Price: $73.76
- 🚀 YTD High: ~$88 (February peak)
- 😰 YTD Low: ~$34 (April bottom)
- 📊 Average Volume: 6.3M shares daily

Technical Levels:
- 🎯 Current: $73.76
- 🚀 Immediate Target: $76 (weekly call strike)
- 💪 Major Resistance: $80-$85 (February highs area)
- 🛡️ Support: $66 (put protection level)
- 📈 Recovery Play: Up 117% from April lows!

Translation: UPST bounced HARD from $34 to $88, pulled back, and now consolidating around $74. This whale is betting the next leg up starts NOW! 🎢

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🎪 Catalysts

Buckle up! Here's what's driving this AI lending revolution:

🚀 Upcoming Events:

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 5, 2025

• Q2 delivered first GAAP profit since 2022!
• Revenue guidance raised to $280M (3.9% above estimates)
• Full year guidance: $1.055 billion revenue

AI Model 22 Full Deployment - Q4 2025

• Neural network breakthrough driving conversion rates
• 92% automation rate for instant approvals
• Expected to drive Q4 acceleration

Balance Sheet Transition - End of 2025

• Moving new products off-balance sheet
• Will free up capital for massive growth
• Partnership with Fortress for $1.2B funding

✅ Recent Game-Changers (Already Happened):

Q2 2025: Return to Profitability!

• Revenue: $257M (102% YoY growth!)
• First GAAP profit: $5.6M net income
• EPS: $0.36 (beat by 50%!)
• Loan originations: $2.8B (154% YoY growth!)

Model 22 Launch - May 2025

• Conversion rates jumped to 23.9% from 19.1%
• Record loan originations in 3 years
• AI now handles 92% of approvals automatically

Prime Borrower Expansion Success

• Super-prime borrowers now 32% of loans (vs 2% in 2024!)
• Accessing $1.2 trillion underserved market
• Lower default rates improving margins

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive option flow and AI momentum:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $85-$95 by year-end
- Model 22 drives explosive Q3/Q4 growth
- Auto loans hit $500M+ quarterly run rate
- HELOC product scales rapidly
- Multiple expansion on AI leadership
- Tomorrow's $72 calls print immediately!

⚖️ Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $78-$82
- Steady execution on raised guidance
- Maintain 100%+ revenue growth
- Profitability streak continues
- Stock grinds higher toward analyst targets
- Weekly $76 calls barely profitable

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $65-$70
- Macro headwinds hurt lending demand
- Margin compression from prime shift
- Competition from traditional banks intensifies
- Put protection at $66 saves the day

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The AI Believer"

• Strategy: Buy shares and sell $65 puts, 30 days out
• Premium: ~$1.20 per contract
• Why it works: Get paid to own UPST at a discount
• Risk: Assignment if drops below $65
• Probability of Profit: 72%

⚖️ Balanced Play: "Follow the Smart Money"

• Strategy: Buy $75/$85 call spread for October
• Cost: ~$2.80 per spread
• Max profit: $7.20 per spread (257% return)
• Why it works: Limited risk, huge reward if momentum continues
• Breakeven: $77.80

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Tomorrow's Lottery Ticket"

• Strategy: Buy $74 calls expiring this Friday (8/30)
• Cost: ~$1.50 per contract
• Why it works: Whale bought $72 calls for TOMORROW - they know something!
• Risk: Total loss if no immediate move
• Reward: Unlimited upside if news drops

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Valuation Concerns: Trading at high multiples despite growth
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Fed moves could crush lending demand
• Competition Heating Up: Traditional banks fighting back with their own AI
• Prime Shift Risk: Moving upmarket means lower margins
• Regulatory Wild Card: Fintech regulation could tighten
• Execution Risk: Transitioning products off balance sheet

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made a $12.6 MILLION bet on UPST with trades that are 1,035x larger than average - including calls that expire TOMORROW! This isn't just unusual, it's EXTREME! 🌋

Here's your action plan:

If you own UPST:
- Hold tight! This whale knows something
- Consider selling some calls above $80 for income
- Watch tomorrow's action VERY carefully

If you're watching:
- Any dip toward $70-$72 could be a gift
- Q3 earnings November 5 is the next major catalyst
- Model 22's impact is just getting started

If you're bearish:
- You're fighting $12.6 million in bullish flow
- Wait for clear breakdown below $66
- This whale has conviction through September

Mark your calendar:
- TOMORROW (8/29) - Those $72 calls expire!
- September 5 - Weekly options expiration
- November 5 - Q3 earnings could be explosive!

Remember: When someone drops $12.6 million on options including next-day expiration calls, they either have inside knowledge or they're about to learn a VERY expensive lesson. Given UPST's AI momentum and return to profitability, my money's on the former! 💰

Translation: This AI lending revolution is just getting started, and someone with deep pockets just went ALL IN! 🚀

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⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This whale-sized bet is extraordinary and not typical. Calls expiring tomorrow are basically lottery tickets - extreme risk! Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big money is doing!