🔥 UPS: Whoa! Massive $34M Put Sale Shows Big Money Betting on Turnaround!
UPS unusual options activity: $33.9M premium. Unusualness score: 9.5/10. YTD performance: -30.43%.
🔥 UPS: Whoa! Massive $34M Put Sale Shows Big Money Betting on Turnaround!
📅 August 21, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Holy moly! Someone just sold $34 MILLION worth of UPS puts right as the stock sits near 52-week lows at $86.18! 🐋 With an unprecedented 9.5/10 unusual score (happens maybe once a year), this isn't retail trading - this is institutional money betting BIG that UPS won't fall much further despite being down 30% YTD. Translation: Smart money thinks the bottom is in, and they're willing to own UPS at these higher strike prices if assigned! 👀
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
🎬 The Actual Trade Tape
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:34:49 | UPS | MID | 🔴 SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $7.4M | $110 | 3.2K | 634 | 3,150 | $86.33 | $23.65 |
| 14:34:49 | UPS | MID | 🔴 SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $5.6M | $105 | 3K | 675 | 3,025 | $86.33 | $18.65 |
| 14:34:49 | UPS | MID | 🔴 SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $12M | $125 | 3K | 603 | 3,000 | $86.33 | $38.65 |
| 14:34:49 | UPS | MID | 🔴 SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $4.3M | $115 | 1.5K | 300 | 1,500 | $86.33 | $28.65 |
| 14:34:49 | UPS | MID | 🔴 SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $4.6M | $120 | 1.4K | 274 | 1,375 | $86.33 | $33.65 |
Check out this monster put selling spree that hit the tape at 14:34:49:
| Time | Strike | Premium | Volume | OI | Size | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:34:49 | $110 | $7.4M | 3.2K | 634 | 3,150 | $23.65 |
| 14:34:49 | $105 | $5.6M | 3K | 675 | 3,025 | $18.65 |
| 14:34:49 | $125 | $12M | 3K | 603 | 3,000 | $38.65 |
| 14:34:49 | $115 | $4.3M | 1.5K | 300 | 1,500 | $28.65 |
| 14:34:49 | $120 | $4.6M | 1.4K | 274 | 1,375 | $33.65 |
Total Premium Collected: $33.9 MILLION 💰
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This trade scored an UNPRECEDENTED 9.5/10 on our unusual scale! That's 6,772x larger than average UPS option trades! 🔥
Translation for us regular folks:
- All strikes are OTM puts ABOVE current price ($86.18)
- Seller is bullish/neutral - They're saying "I'll happily buy UPS at $105-$125"
- Expiration: September 19, 2025 - Just 29 days away!
- Max profit if UPS stays above $125: $33.9M (that's the dream scenario)
- Break-even levels: Range from $71.35 (for the $105 puts) to $86.35 (for the $125 puts)
This isn't gambling - this is calculated positioning by someone who thinks UPS's transformation story is real! 🎯
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
Looking at the technicals, UPS is deeply oversold but showing signs of life:
Key Levels to Watch:
- 🎯 Current: $86.18 (down 30.43% YTD - ouch!)
- 🛡️ 52-Week Low: $84.28 (just $1.90 below!)
- 📈 52-Week High: $145.01 (41% upside if recovered)
- 🔴 Key Resistance: $95-$100 zone
- 💚 Support: $84-$86 (current levels)
What the Chart Says:
- 📉 Down 30% YTD while broader market is up
- 📊 Trading near 52-week lows (oversold territory)
- 🎢 Volatility at 36.4% (elevated but not extreme)
- 📈 Max drawdown of 41.79% suggests capitulation may be near
Translation: We're in the bargain basement, and this whale just backed up the truck! 🚚
🎪 Upcoming Catalysts
Buckle up! Here's what could move the needle:
🏭 Massive Network Transformation (Ongoing through 2026)
United Parcel Service is executing the largest network reconfiguration in company history, with plans to:
- Reduce Amazon volume by 50% by June 2026 (already down 16% YoY)
- Close 73 facilities by June 2025
- Cut 20,000 positions in 2025
- Expected savings: $3.5 BILLION 💰
🏥 Healthcare Logistics Expansion
- Just announced $1.6B acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group
- Goal: Double healthcare revenue to $20B by 2026
- Healthcare = Higher margins than regular packages! 💊
🤖 AI & Technology Revolution
- Deploying RFID across 60,000 vehicles in 2025
- AI-driven tools saved $889M in ONE quarter
- "Lights-out" facility showing 300% productivity gains
📅 Q3 2025 Earnings (Late October)
- Analysts expect 7.1% annual earnings growth
- EPS forecast to grow 10.31% to $8.77
- Will transformation efforts start showing results? 👀
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on the massive put selling and transformation catalysts:
🚀 Bull Case (30% chance)
Target: $112-$120 by year-end
- Network transformation beats expectations
- Healthcare acquisitions drive margin expansion
- Analyst consensus target of $112.11 achieved
- Put sellers make BANK on their $34M bet! 💰
⚖️ Base Case (50% chance)
Target: $90-$100
- Gradual recovery as efficiency gains materialize
- Dividend yield of 7.60% provides floor
- Stock grinds higher but stays below put strikes
- Put sellers keep most of their premium
😰 Bear Case (20% chance)
Target: $75-$84
- Economic slowdown hurts volumes
- Transformation costs exceed benefits near-term
- Put sellers get assigned (but still profitable on most strikes)
- Stock tests new lows before recovering
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "The Dividend Collector"
- Buy 100 shares at $86.18
- Sell monthly $90 calls for income
- Collect 7.60% dividend yield while waiting
- Why it works: Get paid to wait for recovery with 7.6% yield + call premium
⚖️ Balanced: "The Put Seller's Apprentice"
- Sell the September $85 puts for ~$3.50
- Cash-secured with $8,500 per contract
- Break-even: $81.50 (5.5% below current)
- Why it works: Follow the whale's playbook at safer strikes
🚀 Aggressive: "The Turnaround Bet"
- Buy October $90/$100 call spreads at ~$2.00
- Max profit: $8.00 if UPS hits $100
- Risk/Reward: 4:1 ratio
- Why it works: Leverage the transformation story with defined risk
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
❗ Economic Sensitivity: UPS is tied to consumer confidence and manufacturing activity
❗ Amazon Volume Loss: Cutting Amazon by 50% = revenue headwinds
❗ Transformation Risk: 20,000 layoffs could disrupt operations
❗ Dividend Sustainability: 96.41% payout ratio is concerning
❗ Competition: FedEx and Amazon logistics eating market share
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: When someone sells $34 MILLION in puts on a stock down 30% YTD, you pay attention! This isn't retail money - this is institutional positioning that screams "we think the bottom is in!"
If you're bullish: Consider following the whale with put selling or buying shares for that juicy 7.6% dividend yield.
If you're watching: Mark your calendar for Q3 earnings in late October - that's when we'll see if the transformation is working.
If you're bearish: Stay away, but note that even bears are respecting the $84 support level.
The lesson: Sometimes the best trades happen when everyone else is scared. This whale just showed us they're not afraid of UPS at these levels - in fact, they're betting $34 million that it won't get much worse! 🐋
Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.