💊 TVTX Deep ITM Call Sale - $8.7M Pre-Earnings Play! 💰

📅 October 27, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dumped $8.7M worth of deep in-the-money calls on Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) this morning! This massive institutional sale at the $15 strike comes just 3 days before Q3 earnings and 78 days before the critical FDA decision on FILSPARI for FSGS. Translation: Smart money is locking in profits after a 55% YTD run, but someone else bought $1.5M in March puts for downside protection!

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📊 Company Overview

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX) is a San Diego-based biopharmaceutical company focused on rare kidney and metabolic diseases:
- Market Cap: $2.5 Billion
- Industry: Pharmaceutical Preparations
- Employees: 385
- Primary Business: Developing life-changing therapies for rare kidney, liver, and metabolic diseases, with focus on sparsentan (FILSPARI) for IgA nephropathy and FSGS

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📊 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 27, 2025):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:20:30	TVTX	MID	SELL	CALL $15	2025-12-19	$8.7M	$15	6.1K	7.6K	6,127	$29.03	$14.25
13:08:27	TVTX	ASK	BUY	PUT $25	2026-03-20	$1.5M	$25	5K	4	4,000	$29.06	$3.70

🤓 What This Actually Means

Trade #1: The $8.7M Call Sale (Deep ITM)

This is a profit-taking monster play! The trader:
- Sold 6,127 contracts of deeply in-the-money $15 calls expiring December 19
- Collected $8.7M in premium ($14.25 per contract)
- The $15 strike is massively ITM with stock at $29 - that's 93% in-the-money!
- Volume of 6.1K nearly matched open interest of 7.6K - this is significant positioning
- This screams profit-taking after the stock's 55% YTD run, especially with earnings 3 days away

Trade #2: The $1.5M Put Buy (March Protection)

A separate trader made a defensive play:
- Bought 4,000 contracts of March $25 puts expiring March 20, 2026
- Paid $1.5M in premium ($3.70 per contract)
- Strike at $25 provides 14% downside protection from current $29 level
- Expiration is after the critical January 13, 2026 FDA decision on FILSPARI for FSGS
- Open interest of only 4 vs 5K volume means this is fresh positioning

Unusual Score: EXTREME - Institutional desk trade level (8.7M premium qualifies as top-tier size)

The Contrarian Setup: One trader is cashing out deep ITM calls while another is loading puts for post-FDA protection. This screams sophisticated positioning around binary catalysts!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) is having a blockbuster year with +55.3% YTD performance! The stock has nearly doubled from its January start price of $18.97 to current levels around $29.46.

Key observations:
- Massive recovery: After bottoming at $12.91 (52-week low), TVTX has rallied over 128%
- Recent breakout: Strong momentum since August, climbing from $15 to current $29
- High volatility: 67.3% implied volatility signals big moves expected around catalysts
- Max drawdown: -43.2% shows this stock can move violently in both directions
- Volume spikes: Notice the massive volume bars in September - institutional accumulation phase

The chart shows a clear uptrend with higher lows, but we're now approaching potential resistance near the $30 psychological level.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $29.44

The gamma chart reveals critical levels that explain both trades:

🔵 Put Gamma Support Levels:
- $27.50: Moderate support with net GEX of 0.37 (6.5% below current price)
- $25.00: Strong support zone with total GEX of 0.71 (15% below) - This is exactly where the put buyer is positioned!

🟠 Call Gamma Resistance Levels:
- $30.00: MASSIVE resistance wall with net GEX of 1.22 (2% above current price) - This is the key level!
- $32.50: Secondary resistance at 10.5% above current price
- $35.00: Major resistance matching analyst targets at 19% above

Market Maker Impact: The huge gamma concentration at $30 means market makers will be selling into any rallies above this level. This creates a natural ceiling and explains why the call seller is taking profits here.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish (3.02 call GEX vs 0.54 put GEX) - but the $30 wall is formidable!

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events

Q3 2025 Earnings - October 30, 2025 (3 days away!)
- Expected EPS: -$0.31 (Source: MarketBeat)
- Revenue Estimate: ~$105M
- Key Focus: FILSPARI sales trajectory after 111.5% revenue growth in Q2
- Beat History: Last quarter beat EPS by $0.14 (-$0.14 vs -$0.28 est) (Source: MarketBeat)

FILSPARI FDA Decision for FSGS - January 13, 2026 (THE BIG ONE!)
- Catalyst Magnitude: This would be the first-ever FDA-approved treatment for FSGS (Source: Yahoo Finance)
- Market Opportunity: 40,000+ patients in US alone with leading cause of kidney failure
- Approval Odds: FDA canceled advisory committee requirement in September 2025 - historically viewed as positive signal
- Stock Impact: This is the binary event that could drive the stock to analyst targets of $35-$47

HARMONY Study Restart - 2026
- Phase 3 trial for pegtibatinase in classical HCU expected to resume enrollment
- Manufacturing scale-up issues being resolved
- Phase 1/2 showed 53.5% reduction in disease metabolites

Recently Completed

FDA REMS Modification Approval
- REMS modification approved for FILSPARI in IgA Nephropathy (reduces prescribing barriers)

Strong Q2 2025 Performance
- Revenue: $94.84M (Source: MarketBeat)
- US net product sales: $71.9M (up 165% YoY)
- Beat bottom line EPS estimates significantly

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🎯 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, analyst targets, and catalyst timing:

🚀 Bull Case (30% chance)

Target: $35-$47

What needs to happen:
- Earnings beat on revenue growth acceleration
- Positive commentary on FSGS FDA submission strength
- Break above $30 gamma resistance with momentum
- FDA approval in January 2026 drives explosive move

Gamma roadmap: Must break $30 resistance (1.22 GEX wall), then clear $32.50 and $35

Analyst support: HC Wainwright at $47 target, consensus at $35

😐 Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $25-$32 range

What needs to happen:
- In-line earnings with steady FILSPARI growth
- Stock consolidates below $30 resistance until FDA decision
- Gamma at $30 keeps price capped in near-term
- Wait-and-see mode into January catalyst

Perfect scenario for the $25 put buyer - stock stays range-bound but protected

😰 Bear Case (25% chance)

Target: $20-$25

What needs to happen:
- Earnings disappointment on revenue or guidance
- FDA raises concerns or requests additional data
- Manufacturing issues resurface with pegtibatinase
- Broader biotech sector selloff

Put buyer profits at any level below $25 (14% downside from current)

Support levels: $27.50 gamma support should hold first, then $25 becomes critical

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: The Earnings Straddle Play

Play: Sell the volatility after earnings settles

Wait until after October 30 earnings, then consider selling December $30 calls against long stock positions

Risk: Assignment if stock breaks $30
Reward: Collect premium in $25-$30 range with gamma support below

Why this works: Gamma at $30 creates natural ceiling until January catalyst

⚖️ Balanced: Follow the Put Buyer

Play: Buy March $25 puts as FDA hedge

Buy puts around $3.50-$4.00 for protection through January 13 FDA decision

Risk: $350-400 per contract premium
Reward: Protected if FDA disappoints or stock pulls back to support

Why this works: Institutional money is positioning for post-FDA volatility at this exact strike

🚀 Aggressive: The January FDA Lottery

Play: Buy February $35 calls for FDA approval pop

Risk: Total premium loss if approval fails
Reward: Multi-bagger if FDA approves first-ever FSGS treatment

Why this works: Matches analyst targets and gamma resistance level - approval could gap stock to $40+

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⚠️ Risk Factors

• Binary FDA catalyst: January 13 decision is all-or-nothing event that could move stock 30-50% either way
• Earnings timing: October 30 results could set tone - any disappointment derails momentum
• Manufacturing risk: HARMONY pause in 2024 shows execution challenges remain
• Valuation: Trading at $2.5B market cap while still unprofitable (negative margins)
• Short interest: 12.6% of float shorted with 5.7 days to cover - squeeze potential but also skepticism
• $30 gamma wall: Technical resistance could cap upside until catalyst clears
• Volatility crush: 67% IV will compress after earnings, hurting long premium positions

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🏁 The Bottom Line

Real talk: These two trades tell opposite stories about Travere Therapeutics (TVTX). One trader just locked in massive profits on a 55% YTD winner with $8.7M in deep ITM calls. Another trader spent $1.5M on March puts positioned perfectly for the January 13 FDA decision.

If you own TVTX: Consider taking some profits above $28-29 like the smart money, but keep a core position for the FDA catalyst. The $30 gamma wall is real.

If you're watching: This is a binary FDA play disguised as a biotech stock. The January 13 PDUFA date for FSGS approval is THE catalyst that matters. Everything between now and then is noise.

If you're bullish: Wait for earnings to clear, then position for the FDA approval with February/March calls. The $35-$47 analyst targets are achievable if they get the green light.

If you're bearish: The $1.5M put buyer has the right idea - protect downside at $25 through the FDA decision. Manufacturing issues and profitability concerns remain.

Mark your calendar:
- October 30: Q3 earnings (3 days away) - could set short-term direction
- January 13, 2026: FILSPARI FSGS FDA decision - the binary event that determines this stock's future

The options market is telling us to expect big moves. That $30 gamma resistance is your near-term ceiling. The $25 gamma support is your floor. And the January FDA decision is your lottery ticket!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Biotech stocks and binary FDA catalysts are especially volatile and can result in total loss of investment.

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About Travere Therapeutics (TVTX): Travere is a biopharmaceutical company focused on identifying, developing and delivering life-changing therapies to people living with rare kidney, liver, and metabolic diseases, with a $2.5 billion market cap in the pharmaceutical preparations sector.