🚢 STNG: Someone Just SOLD $6.6 MILLION in Tanker Calls - The Plot Thickens!

📅 August 29, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Buckle up! A whale just SOLD $6.6 MILLION worth of deep in-the-money STNG calls with a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's 1,152x larger than average! 🌋 With Scorpio Tankers trading at $50.26 and these $40 calls expiring in just 21 days, someone's making a massive bearish bet that this tanker stock won't sail much higher. Translation: This institutional player is collecting premium betting the party's over for STNG's recent rally! 😰

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Let me break down this monster trade that hit the tape at 9:44 AM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
09:44:47	STNG	SELL	CALL	$40	$6.6M	6.5K	320	6,500	$50.26	$10.20

Option Symbol: STNG20250919C40
Expiration: September 19, 2025 (21 days away!)

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - we're talking "once in a year" territory! 🌋

Here's the translation for us regular folks:

The Call Sell (Bearish Signal):
- Collecting $10.20 per contract in premium
- These are DEEP in-the-money calls ($10.26 ITM!)
- Strike at $40 when stock is at $50.26
- Seller keeps the premium if STNG stays below $50.20 at expiration

Why This Matters:
- Volume vs Open Interest: 6,500 contracts traded vs only 320 existing - that's 20x the open interest!
- Unusualness: 1,152x larger than average STNG option trade!
- Moneyness: These calls are so deep ITM they're basically stock replacements
- Direction: Selling deep ITM calls = bearish or capping upside

Translation: This isn't just bearish - it's "I'm taking my chips off the table after a nice run" bearish! Someone with serious money thinks STNG has topped out near $50! 📉

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at the YTD performance, STNG has been choppy but basically flat:

Key Metrics:
- 📊 YTD Return: +0.10% (Basically flat!)
- 📊 Current Price: $50.08
- 📉 YTD High: ~$56 (January peak)
- 😰 YTD Low: ~$32 (April bottom)
- 📊 Average Volume: 1.05M shares/day

Technical Levels:
- 🎯 Current: $50.08
- 🚫 Resistance: $56 (January high)
- 🛡️ Support: $40 (conveniently the strike price!)
- 😐 Range-bound: Trading between $40-$50 for months

Translation: STNG has been stuck in a range all year, and this whale is betting it stays that way! 🎯

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events 🔮

🚢 Q3 2025 Earnings - Late October

• Q2 already showed revenue down 40% YoY
• Market expecting further weakness in tanker rates

🌍 IMO 2030 Environmental Regulations

• New sulfur emission standards requiring fleet upgrades
• STNG's modern fleet (8.8 years avg) has advantage with 85% scrubber-fitted vessels

🛢️ OPEC+ Production Decisions - September Meeting

• Any production cuts could impact refined product demand
• Critical for tanker utilization rates

Already Happened 📰

✅ Q2 2025 Results - Mixed Bag

• Revenue: $222.8M (down 40.4% YoY)
• EPS: $1.47 (beat by 39.2%)
• Operating margin collapsed from 67.9% to 35.4%

🚨 Red Sea Crisis Continues

• Ships still rerouting around Cape of Good Hope
• Adds 4,000+ miles to journeys, supporting ton-mile demand
• But market has already priced this in!

💰 Massive Share Buybacks

• $826M in buybacks from Jan 2023-June 2025
• Reduced debt by $2.2B since Dec 2021
• Management trying to support stock price

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive bearish option flow and market conditions:

😰 Bear Case (50% chance)

Target: $45-$48 by October
- Tanker rates continue declining
- New fleet supply pressures margins
- This whale's thesis plays out perfectly
- Stock stays well below $50 through expiration

⚖️ Base Case (35% chance)

Target: $48-$52
- Range-bound trading continues
- Geopolitical tensions support some demand
- Dividend yield of 3.3% provides floor
- Whale keeps most of their premium

🚀 Bull Case (15% chance)

Target: $54-$58
- Red Sea crisis escalates further
- Tanker supply tightens unexpectedly
- Q3 earnings surprise to upside
- This whale gets burned on their bearish bet!

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Dividend Collector"

• Strategy: Buy shares and sell $55 covered calls
• Entry: Buy STNG at $50
• Premium: Collect ~$1.50 per contract monthly
• Why it works: 3.3% dividend + call premium = 8%+ annual yield
• Risk: Stock drops below $45

⚖️ Balanced Play: "The Contrarian Spread"

• Strategy: Buy $45/$50 put spread for October
• Cost: ~$1.80 per spread
• Max profit: $3.20 per spread (178% return)
• Why it works: Follow the smart money's bearish bet
• Risk: Stock stays above $50

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Fade the Whale"

• Strategy: Buy $52.50 calls for October
• Cost: ~$1.20 per contract
• Why it works: Contrarian bet against the bearish flow
• Risk: Total loss if STNG doesn't break above $53.70

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Cyclical Industry: Tanker rates are notoriously volatile
• Fleet Oversupply: ~85 new MR tankers coming in 2025
• Dangote Refinery Impact: New Nigerian refinery reducing import demand
• Geopolitical Resolution: Red Sea normalization would crush ton-miles
• Already Priced In: Market may have fully valued the geopolitical premium

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🏢 Company Overview

Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG) is the world's largest product tanker company, specializing in transporting refined petroleum products globally. With a market cap of $2.54 billion, they operate:

• Fleet: 99 owned tankers (38 LR2, 56 MR, 5 Handymax)
• Average Age: 8.8 years (vs industry average of 13.4 years)
• Headquarters: Monaco
• Business: Marine transportation of petroleum products

The company has a modern, fuel-efficient fleet with 85% scrubber-fitted vessels, positioning them well for environmental regulations but facing headwinds from declining tanker rates.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made a MASSIVE bearish bet on STNG with a $6.6 million call sale that's 1,152x larger than average! This isn't your neighbor Bob - this is institutional money saying "thanks for the ride, but I'm out!" 🚪

Here's your action plan:

If you own STNG:
- Consider selling covered calls above $52
- This whale clearly thinks upside is capped
- Watch the $50 level like a hawk - break below could accelerate

If you're watching:
- Wait for a break below $48 for short entry
- Don't fight the smart money without a good reason
- The 3.3% dividend provides some cushion, but may not be enough

If you're bullish:
- You're fighting a $6.6 million bearish bet
- Make sure you have a catalyst this whale doesn't see
- Consider waiting until after September 19 expiration

Mark your calendar: September 19th (option expiration) and late October (Q3 earnings) are going to be critical! 📅

Remember: When someone sells $6.6 million in deep ITM calls on a stock that's basically flat YTD, they're either taking profits after a nice run or they know something we don't. Given the tanker market headwinds and this EXTREME unusual activity, I'd bet on the latter! 🎲

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⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This whale-sized bearish bet is extraordinary and not typical. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big money is doing!