🛢️ SOC: Someone Just Bet $4 MILLION on California Oil's Comeback Story!

📅 September 3, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected

---

🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just deployed $4 MILLION into SOC options with a sophisticated call spread strategy - buying $30 calls while selling $37.50 calls! 🐋 This isn't just unusual, it's a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - literally 810x larger than average SOC trades! With the stock at $22.85 and this trader targeting $30-37.50, someone's betting BIG that Sable Offshore's controversial California oil restart is about to pay off massively! 🚀

---

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Let me break down these monster trades that hit the tape at 10:29 AM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
10:29:09	SOC	BUY	CALL	2025-11-21	$3M	$30	15K	3.8K	15,000	$22.89	$2.00
10:29:09	SOC	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$1M	$37.50	15K	533	15,000	$22.89	$0.67

Option Symbols:
- Buy: SOC20251121C30
- Sell: SOC20251121C37.5

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's "happens maybe once a year" territory! 🌋

Here's the translation for us regular folks:

The Call Spread Strategy:
- Paying $2.00 per contract for $30 calls
- Collecting $0.67 per contract selling $37.50 calls
- Net debit: $1.33 per contract ($2M total)
- Maximum profit: If SOC hits $37.50, this trader makes $5.17 per share ($7.75M total!)
- Breakeven: $31.33 (37.1% above current price)
- Risk: Limited to $2M if SOC stays below $30

The Unusualness Factor:
- 810x larger than average SOC option trade!
- Only 4 trades larger in recent history
- 99.99th percentile trade size
- Z-score of 26.12 (statistically off the charts!)

Translation: Someone with SERIOUS conviction just placed a calculated bet that SOC explodes 31-64% higher by November! This isn't gambling - it's a structured play with defined risk and massive upside! 💎

---

🏢 Company Overview

Sable Offshore Corp (NYSE: SOC) is a Houston-based independent oil and gas company that just pulled off what ExxonMobil couldn't do in 7 years - restart the Santa Ynez Unit offshore California!

Key Stats:
- 📊 Market Cap: $2.68 billion
- 🛢️ Industry: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
- 📍 Core Asset: Santa Ynez Unit (3 platforms, 114 wells, 76,000 acres)
- 💰 Reserves: 190 million barrels of recoverable oil
- 🎯 Current Production: 6,000 barrels/day (ramping to 40,000-50,000!)

They acquired this world-class asset from ExxonMobil for $1.2 billion in February 2024, after Exxon gave up trying to restart it following a 2015 pipeline spill. Now SOC is bringing it back online! 🔥

---

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at the YTD performance, SOC has been on a volatile ride:

Key Metrics:
- 📉 YTD Return: -1.87%
- 📊 Current Price: $22.85
- 📈 YTD High: ~$33 (February)
- 📉 YTD Low: ~$17 (April)
- 🎢 Average Volume: 2.1M shares/day

Technical Levels:
- 🎯 Current: $22.85
- 🚀 Call Buy Strike: $30 (31.1% upside)
- 🌙 Call Sell Strike: $37.50 (64.1% upside)
- 🛡️ Support Zone: $20-22
- 💪 Resistance: $27-28 (recent rejection level)

Translation: SOC has been consolidating between $20-28 for months. This whale is betting on a massive breakout above $30! 🚀

---

🎪 Catalysts

Buckle up! Here's what could send SOC to the moon:

⏰ Upcoming Events

🛢️ Full Production Ramp-Up - Q3/Q4 2025

• Platform Heritage (44 wells) starting July 2025
• Platform Hondo (26 wells) starting August 2025
• Target: 40,000-50,000 barrels/day vs current 6,000!
• That's a potential 7-8x production increase! 🚀

🔧 Pipeline System Full Restart - July 2025

• Las Flores Pipeline repairs nearly complete
• Enable actual oil sales vs just storage
• Critical for revenue generation

📊 Q3 2025 Earnings - November 6-17

• Analyst estimates: -$0.07 EPS, $93M revenue
• First full quarter with production online
• This options expiration perfectly timed for earnings!

✅ Recent Positive Developments

🎯 Production Already Restarted - May 15, 2025

• Successfully restarted Platform Harmony after 10-year shutdown
• 350,000 barrels already in storage
• Proved they can actually do what Exxon couldn't!

💰 Fresh Capital Raised - May 2025

• $282.6 million equity raise completed
• Fully funded for operations ramp-up
• No immediate dilution risk

---

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive option flow and upcoming catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $38-45 by year-end
- Full production reaches 50,000 barrels/day
- Oil prices stay above $80
- Regulatory issues resolved favorably
- This whale's $37.50 calls cap out with maximum profit!

⚖️ Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $28-35
- Production ramps to 30,000 barrels/day
- Some regulatory delays but progressing
- Q3 earnings show strong momentum
- Option spread hits sweet spot around $33-35

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $18-25
- California regulatory battles intensify
- Production ramp-up delays
- Oil prices collapse
- Whale loses most/all of the $2M investment

---

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Income Generator"

• Strategy: Sell $20 puts, 30-45 days out
• Premium: ~$1.50 per contract
• Why it works: Collect premium with 12.5% downside cushion
• Risk: Assignment if SOC drops below $20

⚖️ Balanced Play: "Mini Whale Spread"

• Strategy: Buy $25/$30 call spread for November
• Cost: ~$1.75 per spread
• Max profit: $3.25 per spread (186% return)
• Why it works: Similar thesis to the whale, smaller size, lower strikes

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Ride the Whale's Wave"

• Strategy: Buy $30 calls for November (same as whale!)
• Cost: ~$2.00 per contract
• Why it works: Follow the smart money with exact same position
• Risk: Total loss if SOC doesn't reach $32

---

⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could torpedo this trade:

• Regulatory Nightmare: $18 million penalty from California Coastal Commission
• Legal Battles: Multiple lawsuits and cease & desist orders
• Environmental Opposition: Strong California resistance to offshore oil
• Execution Risk: Management's previous bankruptcies raise concerns
• Class Action Lawsuits: Securities fraud claims over misleading statements
• Oil Price Dependency: Any oil crash would crush this thesis

---

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made a $4 MILLION calculated bet that SOC explodes 31-64% higher by November - and this isn't your average trade, it's 810x larger than normal! 🌋

Here's your action plan:

If you own SOC:
- Hold tight! This whale sees something big coming
- Consider taking profits above $35
- Watch the $30 level - that's where the big money starts printing

If you're watching:
- Any dip toward $20-21 could be a gift
- November earnings is THE catalyst to watch
- Pipeline restart news in July could trigger the move

If you're bearish:
- You're fighting against $4 million in conviction
- California regulators are your best friends
- Wait for clear breakdown below $20

Mark your calendar:
- July 2025 - Pipeline restart & Platform Heritage production
- November 6-17 - Q3 earnings (right before option expiration!)
- November 21 - Option expiration date

Remember: When someone bets $4 million on a controversial California oil restart with a 9/10 unusual score, they're either seeing massive opportunity or about to learn an expensive lesson. Given the production ramp-up timeline perfectly aligning with these options, my money's on the former! 💰

This isn't just an oil play - it's a bet that California's energy reality trumps its environmental idealism. With 190 million barrels of reserves and production ramping from 6,000 to potentially 50,000 barrels/day, SOC could be the comeback story of 2025! 🛢️

---

⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This $4 million bet is extraordinary and not typical. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the smart money is doing!