🔥 SOC Put Hedge Fortress - $15M Oil Risk Protection Play!

📅 October 3, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $15M on SOC put protection this morning, with the largest being a $4.1M put buy on November 2025 strikes! This massive institutional hedge arrives just as Sable Offshore faces critical debt refinancing deadlines and pipeline approval uncertainties. With $873M in debt maturing January 2026, smart money is buying protection against potential downside. Translation: Big players are hedging serious risk ahead of make-or-break catalysts!

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📊 Company Overview

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is an independent oil and gas producer with:
- Market Cap: $1.95 Billion
- Industry: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
- Primary Business: Offshore oil production from Santa Ynez Unit in federal waters off California
- Key Asset: Three offshore platforms (Harmony, Heritage, Hondo) with 112 wells across 76,000 acres
- View SOC Stock Chart
- SOC Company Page

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape (October 3, 2025):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price	Option Link
14:03:36	SOC	ASK	BUY	PUT	2026-01-16	$15M	$17.5	42K	41K	39,000	$19.63	$3.90	View Chart
13:13:46	SOC	MID	BUY	PUT	2025-11-21	$4.1M	$12.5	55K	60K	55,000	$19.92	$0.75	View Chart
13:13:46	SOC	MID	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$4.1M	$35	55K	70K	55,000	$19.92	$0.75	View Chart

🤓 What This Actually Means

This activity shows sophisticated institutional hedging! Here's the breakdown:

The January 2026 Put Fortress ($15M):
- Buying 39,000 puts at $17.50 strike for $3.90 each
- Protection kicks in below $13.60 ($17.50 - $3.90)
- Expires RIGHT AFTER the critical debt maturity deadline
- This isn't speculation - it's MASSIVE downside insurance!

The November Risk Reversal ($8.2M total):
- Sold $35 calls to finance $12.50 put purchases (collar strategy)
- Zero net cost potentially - using call premium to fund put protection
- Positioned for pipeline approval decision timeline
- Classic "protect the downside, cap the upside" institutional move

Unusual Score: 4049x average size - This happens maybe once a year in SOC!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

SOC has been on a volatile journey in 2025, currently trading around $19.35 after wild swings. The stock peaked near $40 in May following production restart news but has since pulled back over 50% on regulatory delays and debt concerns.

Key observations:
- High volatility: Stock has shown 100%+ swings this year
- Recent breakdown: Failed to hold $25 support in September
- Volume surges: Heavy institutional activity on news events
- 52-week range: $12.20 - $42.75 (currently near lower third)

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $19.35

The gamma landscape reveals critical battlegrounds:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma):
- $19.00: Minor support (1.39 total gamma) - 1.8% below current
- $18.50: Weak support (0.42 gamma) - 4.4% below
- $18.00: Moderate support (1.95 gamma) - 7.0% below
- $17.50: MASSIVE support (6.35 gamma) - 9.6% below
- $16.00: Deep support (0.41 gamma) - 17.3% below

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma):
- $19.50: Immediate resistance (0.30 gamma) - 0.8% above
- $20.00: MAJOR resistance wall (15.27 gamma) - 3.4% above
- $20.50: Light resistance (0.12 gamma) - 5.9% above
- $21.00: Secondary resistance (1.12 gamma) - 8.5% above
- $22.50: Upper resistance (4.28 gamma) - 16.3% above

The massive gamma concentration at $20 creates a magnetic price level - options activity shows heavy institutional interest here, making it difficult to break above without major catalysts.

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🎪 Catalysts

⏰ Upcoming Events

Critical Debt Maturity - January 2026
- $873 million in debt comes due (Source: Ainvest analysis)
- Company reported $247M cash on hand in latest filings (Source: SEC Filing)
- Refinancing success could unlock 130%+ upside per analysts (Source: Benchmark Company)
- Failure could trigger significant downside per institutional hedging activity

Las Flores Pipeline Approval Decision - Q4 2025/Q1 2026
- Formal restart plans submitted September 2025 (Source: KEYT News)
- California Office of State Fire Marshal reviewing safety measures (Source: California State Fire Marshal)
- Approval unlocks full production potential of 40,000-50,000 BOE/d (Source: Company Guidance)
- Delays push company toward expensive Plan B alternative transport solution

Plan B Implementation - Q4 2026
- Offshore Storage & Treating vessel strategy requires $100M capex (Source: Benchmark analysis)
- Additional $3-4/barrel operating costs per company estimates (Source: Sable Offshore Investor Relations)
- Provides alternative if pipeline approval fails (Source: Company Press Release)
- Benchmark maintains $47 price target despite higher costs (Source: Benchmark Company Research)

✅ Recently Completed

Production Restart - May 15, 2025
- Platform Harmony restarted at 6,000 barrels/day (Source: World Oil)
- First oil production since 2015 shutdown
- Heritage and Hondo platforms pending pipeline approval
- Limited operations only until full transport solution approved

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on gamma levels and catalyst analysis:

🚀 Bull Case (25% chance): Target $22.50+

• Pipeline approval comes through by year-end
• Successful debt refinancing announced
• Production ramps to 40,000+ BOE/d target
• Strong gamma resistance at $22.50 becomes support
• Benchmark's $47 target suggests massive upside if execution succeeds

😐 Base Case (50% chance): Range $17.50-$20.00

• Stock stays pinned around massive $20 gamma wall
• Pipeline delays continue but Plan B progresses
• Debt refinancing negotiations ongoing
• Heavy put gamma at $17.50 provides floor
• Options market expects range-bound action

😰 Bear Case (25% chance): Target $16.00 or below

• Pipeline approval denied or significantly delayed
• Debt refinancing fails or highly dilutive
• Legal challenges escalate with court injunctions
• Break below $17.50 triggers accelerated selling
• January put buyers profit massively

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Sell Cash-Secured Puts

• Sell $17.50 puts for November expiration
• Collect $0.50-0.75 premium (3-4% in 6 weeks)
• Happy to own at $16.75-17.00 if assigned
• Strong gamma support provides cushion

⚖️ Balanced: Put Spread for Protection

• Buy $19 puts, Sell $17 puts (January expiration)
• Net cost ~$0.75 per spread
• Protects against 10%+ downside
• Max profit $1.25 if stock drops to $17

🚀 Aggressive: Call Calendar Spread

• Sell November $22.50 calls for $0.40
• Buy January $22.50 calls for $1.20
• Net cost $0.80, profits from time decay
• Positioned for post-debt resolution rally

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Real talk - here's what could go wrong:

• Binary Debt Event: $873M maturity could trigger massive volatility
• Regulatory Gridlock: California agencies moving slowly on approvals
• Legal Challenges: Multiple class-action suits allege misleading statements (Source: California Resources)
• Environmental Opposition: Groups actively fighting restart through courts
• Liquidity Concerns: Wide bid-ask spreads on options

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: Someone just spent $15M protecting against SOC downside, and they're not messing around! The January 2026 puts align PERFECTLY with the debt maturity deadline - this isn't random speculation, it's calculated institutional risk management.

If you own SOC: Consider hedging strategies NOW. That $17.50 put wall shows where smart money draws the line.

If you're watching: Wait for clarity on pipeline approval or debt refinancing. The risk-reward improves dramatically with any positive catalyst resolution.

If you're bearish: The put buyers might be onto something. January $17.50 puts offer 2:1 risk-reward if debt concerns materialize.

Mark your calendar for: January 2026 debt maturity - that's when this massive options bet pays off or expires worthless!

Remember: Options involve risk of total loss. This unusual activity suggests institutions are seriously concerned about near-term risks. Trade accordingly! 💪

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.