💎 SOC Pipeline Restart Play - $6.6M Institutional Bets Pile In! 🛢 (2025-09-28)
Massive $6.6M institutional bet detected on SOC. Big money just placed $6.61M in options bets on Sable Offshore (SOC) ahead of the critical Las Flores Pipeline restart! Institutions are loading up on both calls and spreads with October 3rd expiratio Unusual activity score: high/10. Detailed breakdow
📅 September 29, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Big money just placed $6.61M in options bets on Sable Offshore (SOC) ahead of the critical Las Flores Pipeline restart! Institutions are loading up on both calls and spreads with October 3rd expiration - just 4 days away. Translation: Smart money is positioning for major news on the pipeline that's been shut for 10 years! 💰
📊 Company Overview
Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) is an independent oil & gas producer with:
- Market Cap: $1.97 billion
- Industry: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
- Primary Focus: Developing the Santa Ynez Unit offshore California
- Current Price: $18.09 (as of 9/29/25)
The company operates three platforms (Harmony, Heritage, Hondo) in federal waters, attempting to restart production after a decade-long shutdown.
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 The Tape (September 29, 2025)
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:07:47 | SOC | MID | SELL | CALL | 2025-10-03 | $850K | $22.5 | 10K | 10 | 10,000 | $18.27 | $0.85 |
| 14:07:47 | SOC | ASK | BUY | CALL | 2025-10-03 | $2.4M | $17.5 | 20K | 0 | 10,000 | $18.27 | $2.40 |
| 14:00:22 | SOC | MID | SELL | CALL | 2025-10-03 | $420K | $23.5 | 6K | 0 | 6,000 | $18.48 | $0.70 |
| 13:52:44 | SOC | MID | BUY | CALL | 2025-10-03 | $2.5M | $17.5 | 10K | 0 | 10,000 | $18.38 | $2.50 |
| 13:52:44 | SOC | BID | SELL | CALL | 2025-10-03 | $420K | $23 | 10K | 63 | 6,000 | $18.38 | $0.70 |
Total Premium: $6.61M across all trades
🤓 What This Actually Means
This is a bull call spread bonanza! Here's what's happening:
- Heavy buying at $17.50 strike (in-the-money) - $4.9M total premium
- Selling higher strikes ($22.50-$23.50) - Creating spreads to reduce cost
- Super short-term expiry (October 3rd) - Just 4 days away!
- Pattern suggests: Expecting movement but capping upside around $23
Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (675x average size) - This volume is absolutely massive for SOC! Happens maybe once a year!
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
YTD Performance
SOC has been on a roller coaster in 2025! Down -22.3% YTD, the stock peaked around $33 in May/June before crashing back to current levels. Recent volatility of 97% shows the market is pricing in massive uncertainty around the pipeline restart.
Key observations:
- 52-week range: $16.26 - $35.00 (currently near lows)
- Max drawdown: -46.95% from highs
- Current setup: Consolidating near $18 support
Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis
Current Price: $18.09
The gamma chart reveals crucial levels explaining today's trades:
- 🔵 Major Support: $18.00 (massive put gamma wall) - Price won't easily break below
- 🟠 Key Resistance: $20.00 (huge call gamma concentration) - Major target above
- 🟠 Secondary Resistance: $22.00-$24.00 zone - Where today's spreads are capped
- Market Maker Impact: Heavy gamma at $18 acts like a magnet pulling price
This setup perfectly aligns with the spread trades - betting on a move to $20-23 range!
🎪 Catalysts
⏰ Upcoming Events
Las Flores Pipeline Restart (September/October 2025) - IMMINENT!
- Final operational barrier to commercial oil sales after 10-year shutdown
- Seven of eight pipeline sections successfully hydrotested
- 350,000 barrels of oil already in storage awaiting transport
Q3 2025 Earnings - November 13, 2025
- Analysts expect EPS of -$0.68 (improvement from -$1.10 in Q2)
- First earnings with potential oil sales revenue
Heritage Platform Production - October 2025
- Second platform restart targeting 10,000 barrels/day
- Following successful Harmony platform restart in May
✅ Recently Completed
Harmony Platform Restart - May 2025
- Successfully restarted production after decade offline
- First of three platforms back online
- Initial production flowing to storage
Court Battles Resolved - June 2025
- Overcame preliminary injunctions that temporarily halted operations
- Cleared regulatory hurdles with state agencies
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Using gamma levels and catalyst timeline:
🚀 Bull Case (30% chance)
Target: $23-$25
Pipeline restart announced successfully this week! Based on gamma resistance:
- Break above $20 resistance triggers squeeze
- Target the $22-24 spread cap zone
- Production ramp to 40,000-50,000 BOE/d drives rerating
😐 Base Case (45% chance)
Target: $18-$20 range
Pipeline restart delayed but imminent:
- Stays pinned around $18 gamma magnet
- Options expire with modest gains
- Market waits for official announcement
😰 Bear Case (25% chance)
Target: $15-$17
Regulatory setback or technical issues:
- Break below $18 support opens downside
- Legal challenges resurface
- Test $16 gamma support level
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: Wait for Confirmation
Play: Buy shares on pipeline news confirmation
- Enter: On official restart announcement
- Target: $22-23 (gamma resistance)
- Stop: Below $17
- Why it works: Reduced binary risk, ride momentum
⚖️ Balanced: Follow Smart Money
Play: Oct 3rd $17.50/$22.50 call spread
- Buy $17.50 calls
- Sell $22.50 calls
- Net cost: ~$1.50 per spread
- Max gain: $3.50 (233% return)
- Why it works: Same structure as today's institutional flow
🚀 Aggressive: Pure Upside Play
Play: Buy Oct 3rd $20 calls outright
- Premium: ~$0.30-0.40
- Breakeven: $20.40
- Target: $23+ on restart news
- Why it works: Maximum leverage if pipeline opens
⚠️ Risk Factors
Real talk - this is a high-risk binary event play! Here's what could go wrong:
- Regulatory delays: California agencies could block restart last minute
- Technical problems: 10-year shutdown means equipment issues likely
- Debt burden: $875.6M debt vs $247M cash
- Environmental opposition: Ongoing California offshore drilling resistance
- Options expiry: October 3rd is just 4 days away - time decay is brutal!
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: Someone with deep pockets just bet $6.6M that SOC moves big in the next 4 days. The pipeline restart catalyst is the make-or-break event - if it happens, SOC could rocket to $23+. If delayed, watch out below!
Action plan:
- Own it: Follow the institutional spread strategy if you believe in restart
- Watching: Set alerts for $20 breakout or $17 breakdown
- Bearish: Stay away or buy puts below $17
Mark your calendar - October 3rd options expiry will tell us if this massive bet pays off! With analyst targets at $30 (63% upside), the risk/reward is compelling for those willing to roll the dice on California oil! 🎰
Disclaimer: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor.