🛢️ SOC: Major Oil Restart Play Attracts $13.8M in Bullish Bets!

📅 September 4, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just placed $13.8 million in bullish option bets on SOC right before a critical regulatory decision! This isn't your average retail trader - we're seeing institutional money positioning for a potential explosive move as Sable Offshore prepares to restart oil production after a 10-year shutdown. With regulatory approval expected this month, this could be a make-or-break moment. 👀

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Here's the massive option activity that caught our attention:

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
14:17:32	SOC	ASK	BUY	CALL	2025-11-21	$9.4M	$35	55K	1.6K	55,000	$22.72	$1.70
14:17:32	SOC	BID	SELL	PUT	2025-11-21	$4.4M	$12.50	55K	8	55,000	$22.72	$0.80

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This is a massive risk-reversal strategy! 💡

Translation for us regular folks:
- 🚀 Bought 55,000 calls at $35 strike = Betting on SOC exploding above $36.70 by November
- 🛡️ Sold 55,000 puts at $12.50 strike = Collecting premium while showing confidence it won't crash below $11.70
- 💰 Net premium spent: $5M ($9.4M - $4.4M) for a leveraged bullish position
- 📈 Break-even: Around $36.70 (59% upside needed from current price)

This trader is essentially saying: "I'm so bullish, I'll risk getting assigned shares at $12.50 to fund my upside bet!" That's conviction! 🎯

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🏢 Company Overview

Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) is a Houston-based independent oil & gas company that just pulled off the deal of the decade. They're in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas industry with a market cap of $2.3 billion.

Here's the kicker: They bought the Santa Ynez Unit from ExxonMobil for just $883 million - an asset estimated to be worth $10 billion! 🤯 That's like buying a Ferrari for the price of a Honda Civic. The catch? It's been shut down for 10 years due to a pipeline leak, and they need regulatory approval to restart.

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📈 Technical Setup

The chart tells an interesting story:
- 📊 52-week range: $16.26 - $35.00
- 🎯 Current price: $22.72 (35% below 52-week high)
- 💪 Key resistance: $35 (exactly where those calls are targeting!)
- 🛡️ Major support: $20 (psychological level)
- 📈 Momentum: Building base after June correction

The $35 strike isn't random - it's the previous high that acted as resistance. If SOC breaks above this level with volume, we could see a new leg higher! 🚀

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🎪 Catalysts

⏰ Upcoming Events (Make or Break!)

• 🚨 September 2025: Final pipeline restart authorization expected - THE BIG ONE!
• 📅 September 26, 2025: Securities fraud lawsuit lead plaintiff deadline
• 🛢️ Q3-Q4 2025: Full production ramp to 40,000-50,000 barrels/day

✅ Recently Completed

• May 2025: Successfully restarted oil production at Platform Harmony - 6,000 barrels/day
• July 2025: Platform Heritage brought online with 44 additional wells
• August 2025: Platform Hondo activated with 26 more wells

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

🚀 Bull Case (30% chance)

Target: $47 📈
- Pipeline approval comes through clean
- Production hits 50,000 barrels/day by year-end
- Benchmark's price target validates at $47
- Oil prices stay above $75/barrel
- Legal challenges dismissed

😐 Base Case (50% chance)

Target: $30-32
- Pipeline approval with some conditions/delays
- Production ramps to 35,000 barrels/day
- Matches analyst consensus of $30.50
- Some legal settlements required
- Moderate operational hiccups

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $15-18 📉
- California Coastal Commission blocks restart
- Securities fraud lawsuits gain traction
- Production delays beyond Q4
- Oil prices crash below $60
- Environmental groups win injunctions

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Income Collector"

Sell November $20 Puts
- Collect ~$1.50 premium (7.5% return in 2.5 months)
- Only assigned if SOC drops 12% from here
- Effective entry at $18.50 if assigned
- Why this works: Strong support at $20, limited downside with production already restarting

⚖️ Balanced Strategy: "The Smart Spread"

Buy Nov $25/$35 Call Spread
- Cost: ~$2.50 per spread
- Max gain: $7.50 (200% return)
- Breakeven: $27.50 (21% move needed)
- Why this works: Captures most of the upside to analyst targets with defined risk

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Following the Whale"

Buy November $30 Calls
- Current price: ~$2.00
- Needs 44% move to breakeven
- Unlimited upside if regulatory approval triggers squeeze
- Why this works: Same timeframe as the whale bet, lower entry cost, catches the momentum

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - this isn't risk-free money:

• 🏛️ Regulatory Russian Roulette: California Coastal Commission has already fined them $18M and could block everything
• ⚖️ Legal Landmines: Multiple securities fraud lawsuits could spook investors
• 🌊 Environmental Opposition: Center for Biological Diversity actively fighting restart
• 💸 Debt Mountain: $875.6 million in short-term debt needs refinancing
• 🛢️ Oil Price Risk: Any recession fears could tank crude prices
• ⏰ Timeline Uncertainty: Already delayed multiple times, could slip again

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: Someone with deep pockets and likely inside knowledge just placed a $13.8 million bet that SOC is about to rip higher. With pipeline approval potentially coming THIS MONTH, we're at a critical inflection point.

This is a classic binary event play - it'll either double or get cut in half based on regulatory decisions. The risk/reward is compelling if you size appropriately.

Action Plan:
- 💚 If you're bullish: Consider the balanced call spread for defined risk exposure
- 🤔 If you're neutral: Sell puts to collect premium while the saga unfolds
- 🔴 If you're bearish: Stay away - this has squeeze potential written all over it

Mark your calendar: September regulatory decision could be the catalyst that sends this to $35+ or back to $18. The $35 November calls aren't hoping - they're positioning for a specific outcome.

Remember: The smart money doesn't always win, but when they bet this big, it's worth paying attention. This isn't financial advice - it's sharing what the big players are doing so you can make your own informed decision! 💡

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⚠️ Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past unusual activity doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.