SNOW Massive Collar Strategy - $7.3M Institutional Hedge Play! - September 24, 2025

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🏢 Company Overview

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)
- Description: Fully managed platform that consolidates data hosted on different public clouds for centralized analytics and governance
- Market Cap: $75.74B
- Sector: Services-Prepackaged Software

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just executed a $7.3M collar strategy on Snowflake at 11:09:45 AM today! This sophisticated institutional trade sells $6.4M in calls while buying $945K in protective puts, all targeting November 21st expiration right around Q3 earnings. With SNOW trading at $224.69, big money is positioning for range-bound action with downside protection - they're collecting massive premium while hedging against a drop below $195!

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

The Tape (September 24, 2025 @ 11:09:45):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
11:09:45	SNOW	ASK	BUY	PUT	2025-11-21	$945K	$195	1.8K	1.5K	1,750	$224.69	$5.40
11:09:45	SNOW	MID	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$6.4M	$195	1.8K	284	1,750	$224.69	$36.32

Net Credit: $30.92 per contract = $5.4M total collected ($36.32 - $5.40 = $30.92 × 1,750 contracts)

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a collar strategy - the swiss army knife of institutional hedging! Here's the breakdown:

• Selling deep ITM calls ($195 strike): Collecting massive $6.4M premium, but capping upside at $195
• Buying protective puts ($195 strike): Spending $945K for downside protection below $195
• Net result: Pockets $5.4M in premium while creating a synthetic box around the position
• Perfect setup: November 21st expiration aligns with Q3 earnings (expected Nov 18-28)

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (2,566x average size) - We're talking institutional desk-level activity here! This happens maybe once a year tops. The $6.4M premium alone is absolutely massive for SNOW options.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

📊 View Live SNOW Chart on AInvest

Looking at Snowflake's year-to-date performance, we're seeing solid momentum with the stock trading at $224.69. The chart shows a strong recovery pattern from earlier lows, with recent consolidation suggesting we might be at a decision point.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $222.84 (from GEX data)

The gamma exposure reveals critical levels that explain this massive trade:

🛡️ Support Levels (Put Gamma):
- $220: Strongest support with 6.38 total GEX (just 1.3% below current)
- $215: Secondary support at -2.05 net GEX (3.5% down)
- $210: Additional floor at 3.89 total GEX (5.8% down)
- $200: Deep support at 3.87 total GEX (10.2% down)

🚀 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma):
- $227.50: Immediate resistance with 1.79 net GEX (2.1% above)
- $230: Major wall with 8.70 total GEX - strongest resistance! (3.2% up)
- $235: Additional resistance at 2.21 total GEX (5.5% up)
- $240: Strong ceiling at 4.91 total GEX (7.7% up)

Key Insight: The $195 strike for this collar is well below all major gamma levels, suggesting this trader expects SNOW to stay within the $200-230 range through November expiration. The massive gamma wall at $230 makes that a tough ceiling to break!

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events

Q3 2026 Earnings - November 18-28, 2025 (Source: MarketBeat)
- Revenue estimate: $1.18 billion (consensus)
- EPS estimate: $0.31 (normalized)
- Key focus: AI product adoption rates and consumption patterns
- This collar expires RIGHT during earnings week - perfect timing!

AI Platform Monetization (Source: WebProNews)
- Cortex AI: Natural language querying capabilities gaining traction
- Snowflake Intelligence: AI-powered analytics tools driving adoption
- AI agents: Projected to exceed historical 21% CAGR growth

Startup Accelerator Investment Program (Source: Snowflake Blog)
- $200 million investment fund for startups building on platform
- Creates ecosystem of AI-powered applications
- Driving platform adoption and stickiness

Recently Completed

Q2 2026 Results (August 27, 2025) (Source: Nasdaq)
- Product revenue: $1.09 billion (32% YoY growth)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.35 (beat estimates by $0.08)
- Customer count: 12,062 total (19% growth)
- Large customers: 654 with $1M+ revenue (30% growth)
- Net revenue retention: 125% - absolutely crushing it!

Strategic Partnerships Expansion (Source: AInvest)
- Microsoft Azure: 40% YoY growth as fastest-growing platform
- Siemens collaboration: Industrial AI for manufacturing
- Salesforce/ServiceNow: AI-powered contact center services

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on gamma levels and catalyst timeline, here's what we're looking at:

🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)

Target: $230-235
- Break above immediate resistance at $227.50
- Challenge the massive gamma wall at $230
- Requires strong Q3 pre-announcement or AI momentum news
- Collar seller loses money above $231 (breakeven)

😐 Base Case (55% chance)

Target: $215-225
- Range-bound between gamma support at $220 and resistance at $227.50
- Perfect scenario for the collar strategy
- Aligns with current consolidation pattern
- Trader keeps full $5.4M premium

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $195-210
- Test gamma support levels at $215 and $210
- Protective puts kick in below $195
- Could happen on guidance concerns or macro headwinds
- Collar provides full downside protection

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: "Follow the Smart Money"

• Sell SNOW 2025-11-21 $240 calls for $3.50 premium
• Collect income while SNOW faces resistance at $230-240
• Risk: Stock breaks above $243.50 by expiration
• Why it works: Gamma wall at $230 creates natural ceiling

⚖️ Balanced: "Earnings Straddle Light"

• Buy SNOW 2025-11-21 $225 call for $8.20
• Buy SNOW 2025-11-21 $220 put for $7.50
• Total cost: $15.70 (~7% of stock price)
• Profits if SNOW moves beyond $209.30 or $240.70
• Why it works: Position for earnings volatility with less capital

🚀 Aggressive: "Gamma Squeeze Setup"

• Buy SNOW 2025-10-18 $230 calls for $2.85
• Target the gamma wall for potential squeeze
• Risk entire premium if SNOW stays below $230
• Why it works: If SNOW breaks $230, market makers must hedge aggressively

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Real talk - here's what could mess up these trades:

• Competition heating up: Google BigQuery, Databricks gunning for market share
• Valuation concerns: Trading at premium multiples vs cloud peers
• Consumption variability: Large customers' usage patterns unpredictable
• AI investment drag: Heavy spending on AI could pressure near-term margins
• Macro headwinds: Enterprise spending cuts would hit growth hard

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: When someone drops $7.3M on a collar strategy, we pay attention! This institutional trader is basically saying: "I think SNOW stays between $195-230 through November earnings, and I'm willing to bet millions on it."

The gamma setup supports this thesis perfectly - massive resistance at $230 and strong support at $220. With Q3 earnings approaching, this looks like smart positioning for range-bound action with downside protection.

Your action plan:
- If bullish: Sell calls against resistance levels for income
- If neutral: Consider iron condors between $210-235
- If bearish: The $195 put protection level is your target

Mark your calendar: November 18-28 for Q3 earnings - that's when this whole setup pays off or blows up!

Remember: Options trading involves risk of 100% loss. This institutional trader can afford to lose millions - make sure you size appropriately for your account! 💪

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.