SMR Nuclear Options Play - $13.7M Smart Money Bet!

📅 October 14, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just placed a $13.7M multi-leg options bet on NuScale Power (SMR) with less than 3 days to expiration! This sophisticated play combines deep in-the-money calls at $40.5 with near-the-money calls at $49, while simultaneously selling puts at $43. With Q3 earnings on November 6th and the historic 6GW TVA partnership driving momentum, big money is positioning for explosive upside. Translation: Institutions are loading up ahead of major catalysts!

---

📊 Company Overview

NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is the only U.S. company with NRC-approved small modular reactor (SMR) technology, positioning it as America's nuclear energy leader:
- Market Cap: $6.02 Billion
- Industry: Fabricated Plate Work (Boiler Shops)
- Primary Business: Small modular reactor development with 77 MWe per module capacity, scalable to 924 MWe with 12 modules
- Competitive Advantage: Second NRC-approved design (77 MWe uprated version) as of May 2025, years ahead of competitors

---

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 14, 2025 @ 14:26:06):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
14:26:06	SMR	MID	BUY	CALL $40.5	2025-10-17	$10M	$40.5	15K	16K	15,420	$46.66	$6.66
14:26:06	SMR	MID	BUY	CALL $49	2025-10-17	$2.2M	$49	16K	1.6K	15,420	$46.66	$1.41
14:26:06	SMR	MID	SELL	PUT $43	2025-10-17	$1.5M	$43	16K	383	15,420	$46.66	$1.00

Net Strategy Cost: $7.07 per contract = $10.9M total invested ($6.66 + $1.41 - $1.00 = $7.07 × 15,420 contracts)

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a complex bullish play combining multiple strategies:

• $40.5 ITM calls: Deep in-the-money for delta exposure (acts like owning 15,420 × 100 = 1.54M shares!)
• $49 OTM calls: Speculative upside bet (~$2 above current price)
• $43 put selling: Collects premium while betting SMR stays above $43
• 3-day expiration: Friday October 17th - this is a short-term directional bet
• Profit zones: Breakeven around $47.50, maximum profit if SMR rallies above $49

Unusual Score: EXTREME (4,894x average size) - This is a rare institutional-sized position that happens maybe once a year for SMR!

---

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

NuScale Power is absolutely crushing it in 2025 with +166.2% YTD performance! Starting from $17.71, SMR has surged to $47.15, though not without volatility along the way.

Key observations:
- Explosive growth: Triple-digit returns driven by TVA partnership announcement and AI data center demand
- High volatility: 113.0% implied volatility signals massive expected swings
- Peak drawdown: -56.67% from highs shows this isn't for the faint of heart
- Recent momentum: Multiple volume spikes in October indicate renewed institutional interest
- Bottoming pattern: March-April lows around $14-16 held firm before explosive rally began

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $46.95

The gamma profile reveals why smart money is making this precise bet:

Resistance Levels (Orange Call Gamma):
- $47: Minor resistance with $1.33M GEX - we're right at this level now! 📍
- $50: MASSIVE wall with $4.91M GEX - this is the key level to break through
- $55: Secondary resistance at $1.13M GEX - long-term target if momentum continues

Support Levels (Blue Put Gamma):
- $46: STRONGEST support with $5.46M GEX - market makers will defend this aggressively
- $45: Secondary floor at $4.35M GEX - multiple layers of protection
- $42: Deep support at $6.17M GEX - major institutional accumulation zone
- $40-40.5: Ultimate backstop where the $40.5 calls provide natural protection

Gamma Interpretation:
- Net GEX Bias: BULLISH with $34.2M call gamma vs $15.6M put gamma
- Pinning Effect: Strong probability of consolidation around $46-47 into Friday expiration
- Breakout Setup: If SMR clears $47, minimal resistance until $50 creates acceleration zone
- Downside Protection: Multiple gamma floors mean any dip gets bought aggressively

This gamma setup perfectly explains the trade logic - buying the $40.5 strike positions at major support with clear runway to $50!

---

⚡ Catalysts

Upcoming Events

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 6, 2025
- Wall Street expects -$0.13 EPS with $11.18M revenue (Source: NuScale IR)
- Key focus: Revenue growth continuation after 710% YoY surge in Q2 and 857% growth in Q1
- Cash runway: $489.9M provides over 2 years of operational cushion - no dilution concerns
- Contract updates: Market anticipates news on TVA implementation timeline

Commercial Deployment Milestone
- First commercial plant targeted for 2030 with CEO stating "closure on a deal here soon"
- Manufacturing partner Doosan has 12 modules in production with capacity for 20 per year
- Any contract finalization would be explosive catalyst

AI Data Center Partnerships
- Nuclear power is emerging as THE solution for 24/7 AI data center power needs
- Tech giants securing nuclear partnerships creates massive addressable market
- TVA's 6GW SMR program sized to power entire data center regions

Recently Completed

Landmark TVA Partnership - September 2025
- 6-gigawatt SMR deployment with TVA and ENTRA1 Energy - LARGEST SMR program in U.S. history
- Capable of powering the equivalent of entire Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area with carbon-free electricity
- Validates commercial viability and creates blueprint for future deployments
- Stock surged 14% on announcement
- Perfect positioning for AI and data center 24/7 reliable, carbon-free power needs

NRC Approval of Uprated Design - May 2025
- 77 MWe design approved, making it the second approved NuScale design
- Scalable up to 924 MWe with 12 modules
- Significant first-mover advantage over competitors like Oklo still years from approval
- Clears pathway to commercial deployment by 2030
- Features Triple Crown for Nuclear Plant Safety™ with passive safety systems requiring no operator intervention, AC/DC power, or additional water for emergency shutdown

International Expansion Progress
- Romanian power project advancing through licensing phases
- Global partnership framework through ENTRA1 for international deployment
- Diversifies revenue streams beyond U.S. market
- Potential applications include hydrogen production (200 metric tons per day from 12 modules), desalination (150 million gallons daily per module), industrial process heat, and district heating

---

🎯 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, technical setup, and catalyst timeline:

🚀 Bull Case (40% chance)

Target: $55-65 by year-end

Catalysts:
- Commercial contract announced before earnings with "closure on a deal here soon"
- Q3 revenue beats analyst estimates continuing 710% growth trajectory
- Additional AI/data center partnership announcements
- International project funding secured

Technical Setup:
- Breaks $50 resistance (orange gamma wall)
- Minimal resistance between $50-55 creates acceleration
- Volume surge confirms institutional accumulation
- This options trade profits massively with $49 calls going deep ITM

Risk Reward: 10x+ return on the $49 call portion alone

😐 Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $44-50 consolidation

Scenario:
- Earnings meet expectations with no major surprises
- Contract timeline pushed to 2026 but progress confirmed
- Market digests recent gains while awaiting concrete milestones
- Gamma support at $46 and $45 provides floor

Technical Setup:
- Trades within current gamma bands around $46-47
- Put gamma support at $46 ($5.46M) holds firm
- Chop between resistance at $50 and support at $45
- Options trade breaks even to modest profit - $40.5 calls retain intrinsic value

Perfect scenario for patient accumulation

😰 Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $38-42 pullback

Risks:
- Earnings disappointment or contract delays announced
- Broader market correction affecting speculative growth stocks
- Regulatory hurdles or public perception challenges emerge
- Profit-taking after +166% YTD run

Technical Setup:
- Breaks below $45 support triggering stop losses
- Falls to major $42 gamma support zone ($6.17M GEX)
- High volatility (113%) means quick moves possible
- Options trade shows moderate loss - $43 puts get assigned, $49 calls expire worthless

Gamma floors at $42 and $40 likely contain downside

---

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Ride the Gamma Support

Play: Bull put spread (October 25th expiration)

Sell SMR $42 puts, buy SMR $39 puts

Risk: $300 per spread max loss
Reward: $80-120 credit per spread
Probability: ~75% success rate based on gamma support

Why this works: Major put gamma floor at $42 ($6.17M GEX) provides institutional support. Selling premium at this level captures time decay while gamma mechanics defend the strike.

⚖️ Balanced: Follow Smart Money Into Earnings

Play: Calendar spread positioning

Buy SMR November $45 calls, sell SMR October 25th $49 calls

Risk: Net debit of $2-3 per spread
Reward: Profits from theta decay short-term plus upside into earnings
Setup: Maintains exposure through November 6th earnings while collecting premium

Why this works: Captures current consolidation theta while keeping long gamma exposure for Q3 earnings catalyst on November 6th. If contract news hits, November calls surge.

🚀 Aggressive: YOLO the Breakout

Play: Short-dated OTM calls

Buy SMR $50 calls or SMR $55 calls (October 25th or November expiration)

Risk: 100% of premium (likely $1-2 per contract)
Reward: 5-10x return if contract news breaks
Catalyst: "Closure on a deal here soon" per CEO

Why this works: Asymmetric bet on commercial contract announcement. Doosan has 12 modules ready, any finalized deal sends stock vertical through $50 resistance. Gamma chart shows minimal resistance between $50-55.

---

⚠️ Risk Factors

Execution Risks:
- Pre-revenue from module sales - profitability depends on contract closures
- Project delays or cost overruns could impact commercialization timeline
- First plant targeted for 2030 - still 5 years away from revenue generation

Market Dynamics:
- Extreme volatility: 113% IV means violent swings in both directions
- Speculative premium: +166% YTD gain could see profit-taking
- Competition: Other SMR developers (Oklo, TerraPower) advancing, though NuScale has regulatory head start
- Public perception: Nuclear energy stigma could impact permitting and partnerships

Regulatory Challenges:
- While NRC approval secured, individual site licenses take years
- Local opposition could delay deployments
- Changing political landscape affects nuclear policy support

Options-Specific:
- Friday expiration risk: October 17th contracts expire in 3 days - theta decay accelerates
- Gamma pin: Price likely held near $46-47 by dealer hedging through expiration
- IV crush potential: After short-term catalyst (or lack thereof), volatility could collapse rapidly

---

🏁 The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $13.7M options position tells us institutional money is betting on NuScale Power having a big short-term catalyst coming. The combination of deep ITM calls ($40.5), speculative OTM calls ($49), and put selling ($43) with just 3 days to expiration screams "we know something's about to happen."

What makes this interesting: The timing aligns perfectly with CEO comments about "closure on a deal here soon" and the historic TVA 6GW partnership momentum. The gamma data confirms strong institutional support at $46 with clear runway to $50.

If you own SMR: Hold through potential contract announcement - the $40.5 call buying shows institutions adding leverage to existing positions.

If you're watching: The $46-47 zone is critical - break above $47 on volume could trigger squeeze to $50 resistance. Gamma mechanics favor bulls.

If you're bullish: Consider November options rather than October expiries to capture the November 6th earnings catalyst while avoiding this Friday's theta burn.

Mark your calendars:
- October 17th (This Friday): These options expire - watch for gamma pin around $46-47
- November 6th: Q3 earnings could provide next major catalyst with contract timeline updates

The nuclear thesis: Between the AI data center power boom, 6GW TVA partnership, and first-mover regulatory advantage, NuScale is uniquely positioned in America's nuclear renaissance. This options flow suggests the smart money agrees - they're just betting it happens sooner rather than later!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The high volatility (113% IV) and short expiration (3 days) make these particular contracts extremely risky.

---

About NuScale Power: NuScale Power Corp is the only U.S. company with NRC-approved small modular reactor (SMR) technology, developing proprietary nuclear reactors that produce 77 megawatts per module with passive safety systems. With a $6.02B market cap in the fabricated plate work sector, the company is pioneering factory-built, transportable nuclear reactors for the AI data center era.