```
Sign in Subscribe
By Ainvest in options —

🛍️ SHOP Massive $26M Call Buy - Smart Money Bullish on February 2026! 💰

A major institutional trade worth $26M just hit the tape. See the full strategy breakdown, technical levels, and trading ideas inside.

🛍️ SHOP Massive $26M Call Buy - Smart Money Bullish on February 2026! 💰

📅 November 25, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $26 MILLION on Shopify calls at 11:01:47 AM today! This massive trade bought 10,000 contracts of $140 strike calls expiring February 20, 2026 - a strategic 87-day play targeting next year's growth. With SHOP trading at $154.36, this is a deep in-the-money position showing serious conviction that the e-commerce platform will keep climbing. Translation: Smart money is making a huge bet that Shopify's momentum continues through Q4 earnings and into 2026!

📊 Company Overview

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is a leading e-commerce platform empowering small and medium-sized businesses to compete in digital commerce:
- Market Cap: $202.2 Billion
- Industry: Prepackaged Software
- Current Price: $154.36 (up 82% YTD)
- Primary Business: E-commerce platform with subscription solutions and merchant services (payments, shipping, AI tools)

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 25, 2025 @ 11:01:47):

Time Symbol Side Buy/Sell Type Expiration Premium Strike Volume OI Size Spot Option Price Option Symbol
11:01:47 SHOP MID BUY CALL 2026-02-20 $26M $140 10K 30K 10,000 $154.36 $25.65 SHOP20260220C140

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a bullish directional bet with serious conviction! Here's what went down:

  • 💸 Massive capital deployed: $26M ($25.65 per contract × 10,000 contracts)
  • 🎯 Deep ITM position: $140 strike with SHOP trading at $154.36 = $14.36 intrinsic value
  • ⏰ Time value: $11.29 remaining with 87 days to expiration
  • 📊 Size matters: 10,000 contracts represents 1,000,000 shares worth ~$154M
  • 🏦 Institutional play: This is NOT your neighbor Bob's Robinhood account
  • 🔄 Order Type: BTC (Buy to Close) suggests this might be closing a previous short position or rolling from another strike

What's really happening here:
This trader is making a massive bullish bet that $140 calls will be worth substantially more by February 2026. The significant time value ($11.29) shows they're paying up for optionality heading into Q4 2025 earnings (November 4), holiday shopping season results, and Q1 2026 earnings. The strategy CSV shows this as "Close Long Call" with MEDIUM confidence and a Z-Score of 2.66 (HIGHLY_UNUSUAL), but the massive size and premium suggest opening a new position or aggressively rolling into 2026.

Unusual Score: 🌋 VOLCANIC (11,359x average size) - This is unprecedented! We've NEVER seen anything like this for SHOP! This is the size of a small hedge fund position.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

SHOP Ytd Chart

Shopify is up +82.1% YTD with a current price of $154.36. The chart tells a remarkable growth story - steady momentum accelerating throughout 2025.

Key observations:
- 📈 Exceptional momentum: Consistent uptrend with higher highs since January
- 💹 Recent strength: Pushed through $150 resistance cleanly, now consolidating mid-$150s
- 🎢 Healthy volatility: Normal pullbacks providing entry points, but overall trend intact
- 📊 Volume confirmation: Increased institutional activity suggests sustained interest
- 🚀 Breakout positioning: Trading near recent highs but below implied resistance at $160-165

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

SHOP Gamma Sr

Current Price: $158.17 (as of gamma snapshot)

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price magnets and walls around current levels:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $157.50 - Strongest nearby support with 1.75B total gamma exposure (only 0.4% below current price!)
- $155 - Major floor with 7.82B gamma (dealers will aggressively buy dips here)
- $150 - Secondary support at 4.79B gamma (5.2% below - psychological level)
- $140 - Deep support with 5.47B gamma (this is where the trade's strike sits!)
- $135-$130 - Extended support band with 3.34B and 2.32B gamma respectively

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $160 - Immediate resistance with 6.62B gamma (strongest level! Only 1.2% above)
- $162.50 - Secondary ceiling at 1.98B gamma
- $165 - Major resistance zone with 4.61B gamma (4.3% above)
- $170 - Extended resistance at 3.16B gamma (7.5% above)

What this means for traders:
The gamma data shows SHOP is trading right at the strongest support ($157.50) with immediate resistance at $160. Market makers holding these positions will hedge by selling stock as price approaches $160, creating natural resistance. However, the massive call gamma (44.08B) versus put gamma (17.80B) shows overall positioning is extremely bullish. This setup suggests SHOP has strong support to consolidate here before the next leg higher toward $165-170.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish (44.08B call gamma vs 17.80B put gamma) - Positioning is heavily tilted bullish with dealers short calls, meaning they'll buy dips and sell rallies to hedge.

Implied Move Analysis

SHOP Implied Move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (Nov 28 - 3 days): ±$4.70 (±3.0%) → Range: $152.38 - $161.78
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (Dec 19 - 24 days): ±$13.96 (±8.89%) → Range: $143.12 - $171.04
  • 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 24 days): ±$13.96 (±8.89%) → Range: $143.12 - $171.04
  • 📅 LEAP (Dec 18, 2026 - 388 days): ±$58.67 (±37.35%) → Range: $98.41 - $215.75

Translation for regular folks:
Options traders are pricing in a 3% move ($4.70) by Friday and a 9% move ($14) through December expiration. That's healthy volatility for a high-growth tech name heading into earnings! The market seems to be expecting significant price action, which makes sense given Q3 earnings (November 4) and holiday shopping results coming.

The February 20, 2026 expiration (when this trade expires) should see SHOP trading somewhere in the broad $130-$180 range based on implied volatility. The $140 strike is positioned perfectly to benefit from continued upside while providing substantial downside protection.

🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q3 2024 Earnings - November 12, 2024 📊

Shopify delivered exceptional Q3 2024 results, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of revenue beats:

What to watch: Q4 guidance projected mid-to-high twenties percentage revenue growth, setting up strong expectations for the holiday quarter.

Black Friday Cyber Monday 2024 - November 29 - December 2, 2024 🛒

Shopify merchants achieved record-breaking $11.5 billion in sales (+24% YoY) during the holiday shopping weekend:

OpenAI ChatGPT Integration - September 2025 🤖

Shopify announced a groundbreaking partnership with OpenAI, introducing Instant Checkout directly within ChatGPT:

🚀 Upcoming Catalysts (Next 3 Months)

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 4, 2025 (10 DAYS AWAY!) 📊

Shopify will announce third-quarter 2025 financial results before market open on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, followed by an 8:30 AM ET conference call.

Key Metrics to Watch:
- 📊 Revenue growth trajectory (can they maintain >25% growth?)
- 💰 Free cash flow margin expansion (targeting >15%)
- 🛍️ GMV acceleration trends
- 💳 Shop Pay penetration rate (current: 38% of GPV)
- 🌍 International GMV growth rates (Europe +39%, Asia +29% in BFCM 2024)
- 📈 Gross margin recovery from Q1 2025 challenges
- 🤖 AI platform adoption metrics (Sidekick, Magic tools)

What analysts expect: Q2 2025 showed revenue of $2.68B (+31% YoY) and 16% FCF margin, with management guiding to "mid-to-high twenties percentage rate" growth for Q3. Street is looking for continued acceleration.

Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 - November 29 - December 2, 2025 🛒

Based on 2024's record performance, analysts expect:
- 🎯 Projected GMV: $14-15B (25%+ growth from 2024's $11.5B)
- 🌍 International acceleration: Europe and Asia showing 30-40% growth rates
- 💳 Shop Pay momentum: Penetration approaching 40%+ of GPV
- 📱 Mobile dominance: Expect continued shift to mobile commerce

Q4 2025 Earnings - February 2026 📊

Expected announcement in early-to-mid February 2026 (just before this option expires on February 20!):
- 📅 Full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance
- 🎄 Holiday quarter performance including BFCM and December shopping
- 📈 Annual GMV growth and merchant expansion metrics
- 💰 Services milestone: Crossing major revenue thresholds

🤖 Medium-Term Catalysts (Q1-Q2 2026)

Shop Pay Acceleration (Ongoing)

Current performance shows explosive growth:
- 📊 38% of GPV (up from 33% in 2023)
- 🚀 Shop Pay GMV grew 50% in 2024; accelerated to 65% growth in Q2 2025
- 💰 Shop Pay Commerce (non-Shopify merchants) grew nearly 20x in 2024
- 🎯 Projected Milestone: 40%+ GPV penetration by end of 2025, 45%+ by mid-2026
- 💵 Revenue Impact: Each 1% GPV increase represents ~$750M-$900M additional transaction volume

International Expansion (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026)

Europe and Asia showing explosive growth:
- 🇪🇺 Europe: 664,810 Shopify stores (27% of all merchants); EMEA grew 39% YoY in BFCM 2024
- 🇫🇷 France: Stores increased from 63,317 to 87,150
- 🇬🇷 Top Growth Markets: Greece, Spain, Portugal leading with 19-20% growth
- 🇮🇳 India: Grew from 58,394 stores (2024) to 90,239 (2025)
- 🌏 Asia-Pacific: $4.2T market (2024) → $6.76T by 2029 (10% CAGR)
- 💰 Revenue Impact: International GMV growth of 33% in Q4 2024 suggests potential for $500M+ incremental revenue in 2025

AI Platform Enhancements (Ongoing through H1 2026)

Shopify's AI tools gaining serious traction:
- 🤖 Sidekick Evolution: Monthly users more than doubled since beginning of 2025; latest upgrades include voice chat and screen sharing
- ✨ Shopify Magic: Product description, email content, marketing copy generation; background removal integrated
- 🏗️ AI Store Builder: Single-prompt storefront creation launched in 2025
- 💰 Expected Impact: Improved merchant retention and upsell to higher-tier plans

Shopify Plus Enterprise Growth

Enterprise segment showing remarkable momentum:
- 🏢 Current Scale: 45,000+ live Shopify Plus stores globally
- 💰 MRR Contribution: $52M (31% of total MRR)
- 🚀 Growth Rate: Plus merchants growing 126% YoY (vs 18% industry standard)
- 💵 Revenue Impact: Each 1,000 new Plus merchants = ~$11M-15M incremental MRR

Editions.dev 2025 - May 29-30, 2025 🎯

Shopify's exclusive annual developer conference returns to Toronto as part of Shopify Summit 2025:
- 🛠️ Expected Announcements: Platform updates, API enhancements, AI tool expansions
- 👨‍💻 Audience: Builders and developers
- 📱 Potential Reveals: New merchant tools, payment innovations, AR features

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Valuation at All-Time Highs 📊

At 100x+ P/E ratio, Shopify trades at a significant premium creating vulnerability:
- 📈 Current Valuation: 107-140x trailing P/E (varies by source)
- 📉 Historical Average: 63x (3-year), 99x (5-year)
- ⚠️ Compression Risk: Any deceleration below 20% revenue growth or FCF margin below 15% could trigger 20-30% correction to normalized 60-70x multiple
- 💰 Market Cap: $202B requires sustained execution to justify

Regulatory & Compliance Complexity ⚖️

Shopify's expanding integrated services multiply compliance complexity across 30+ jurisdictions:
- 🌍 Multi-Jurisdictional Challenges: Payments, shipping, data privacy across global markets
- 💰 Fine Risk: Potential $50M+ regulatory fines could trigger 10-15% stock corrections
- 📊 Margin Impact: Compliance costs could compress margins by 100-200 bps

Market Saturation Concerns 📉

Q2 2024 showed Shopify sellers grew 36% YoY, but order volume declined 8%:
- ⚠️ Saturation Signal: Influx of new sellers not generating proportional orders
- 🛍️ Consumer Caution: Shoppers becoming more selective
- 🔄 Competitive Pressure: Amazon, Walmart, social commerce platforms creating alternatives

Gross Margin Pressure 💸

Q1 2025 showed gross margin contraction despite revenue beat:
- 📉 Q1 2025: Margin compression with cautious Q2 outlook
- ⚖️ Tariff Uncertainty: Management noted tariff headwinds impacting guidance
- 🎯 Q3 2024: FCF margin at 19%, down slightly from prior quarters

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios:

📈 Bull Case (45% probability)

Target: $170-180

How we get there:
- 💪 Q3 2025 earnings beat continuing 9-quarter streak, revenue >26% growth
- 🛒 BFCM 2025 GMV hits $14-15B (30%+ growth)
- 💳 Shop Pay penetration breaks 40%+ of GPV showing acceleration
- 🌍 International markets (Europe/Asia) sustain 30-40% growth rates
- 🤖 AI platform adoption (Sidekick, Magic) drives merchant retention and plan upgrades
- 🏦 FCF margin expands to 20%+ with improving unit economics
- 📊 ChatGPT integration starts showing meaningful GMV contribution
- 📈 Breakthrough gamma resistance at $165-170 on sustained buying

Key catalysts: Strong Q3 earnings (Nov 4), record BFCM (Nov 29-Dec 2), positive Q4 preview at Feb earnings (just before expiration!)

🎯 Base Case (40% probability)

Target: $155-170 range

Most likely scenario:
- ✅ Solid Q3 earnings meeting elevated expectations (26%+ revenue growth)
- 🛍️ BFCM 2025 shows 20-25% growth (solid but not blowout)
- 💳 Shop Pay continues steady 38-40% GPV penetration
- 🌍 International growth remains strong but faces tougher comps
- 🔄 Trading between strong gamma support ($155-157.50) and resistance ($160-165)
- 📊 Valuation remains elevated but growth supports premium multiple
- 🎯 Q4 earnings (Feb) provides positive 2026 guidance

This is the trade's sweet spot: Stock consolidates current gains, then legs higher into year-end and Feb earnings. The $140 calls gain significant value from both intrinsic appreciation and time value preservation.

📉 Bear Case (15% probability)

Target: $140-155

What could go wrong:
- 😰 Q3 earnings disappoint or show deceleration below 20% revenue growth
- 🛍️ BFCM 2025 growth slows below 20% suggesting saturation
- 📉 Gross margin compression continues from Q1 2025 levels
- ⚖️ Major regulatory fines or restrictions in Europe/U.S. ($50M+ impact)
- 🔻 Order volume trends from Q2 2024 persist (sellers up, orders down)
- 💸 Broader tech selloff drags high-multiple growth names lower
- 🤖 AI features fail to drive meaningful merchant upgrades
- 🛡️ Key support: Strong put gamma at $150-155 should limit downside; $140 strike provides natural floor

Important note: Even in bear case, the $140 calls retain full intrinsic value ($14.36 currently) as long as SHOP stays above $140. Max loss would only occur on significant decline below strike.

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait for Q3 Earnings Clarity

Play: Stay on sidelines until after Q3 earnings volatility settles

Why this works:
- ⏰ Q3 earnings in 10 days (November 4) creates binary event risk
- 💸 Implied volatility elevated (8.89% monthly move) - options expensive pre-earnings
- 📊 Stock already up 82% YTD with 100x+ P/E - limited margin of safety
- 🎯 Better entry likely post-earnings after IV crush reduces option premiums
- 📉 Historical pattern: High-growth tech often consolidates post-earnings regardless of results

Action plan:
- 👀 Watch Tuesday, November 4 earnings closely for GMV, Shop Pay, international metrics
- 🎯 Look for pullback to $150-155 gamma support for stock entry
- ✅ Confirm revenue acceleration >25% and FCF margin expansion
- 📊 Monitor analyst reactions and 2026 guidance quality

Risk level: Minimal (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

⚖️ Balanced: Post-Earnings Call Debit Spread

Play: After Q3 earnings, buy call debit spread targeting holiday momentum

Structure: Buy $160 calls, Sell $170 calls (Dec 19 expiration)

Why this works:
- 🎢 IV crush after earnings makes options cheaper - buy after volatility drops
- 📊 Defined risk spread ($10 wide = $1,000 max risk per spread)
- 🎯 Targets gamma resistance zone at $160-170 where stock likely to trend
- 🛍️ Captures BFCM 2025 momentum (Nov 29-Dec 2) before December expiration
- 📈 Benefits from holiday shopping season strength without unlimited risk
- ⏰ 45 days to expiration gives time for catalysts to play out

Estimated P&L (adjust after seeing post-earnings IV):
- 💰 Estimated net debit: $4-5 per spread ($400-500 per spread)
- 📈 Max profit: $500-600 if SHOP at/above $170 at December expiration
- 📉 Max loss: $400-500 if SHOP below $160 (defined and limited)
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$164-165

Entry timing: Wait 1-2 days post-earnings for IV to fully collapse

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: Follow the Smart Money with LEAP Calls

Play: Buy longer-dated calls mimicking institutional positioning

Structure: Buy $150 calls or $155 calls (Feb 20, 2026 expiration - same as the $26M trade!)

Why this could work:
- 🏦 Following institutional flow: Mirroring the massive $26M bet at higher strikes for lower cost
- 📅 Multiple catalysts: Captures Q3 earnings, BFCM 2025, Q4 earnings (Feb 2026)
- 🎯 Strategic positioning: Feb 2026 expiration perfect for full holiday season + Q4 results
- 💳 Shop Pay acceleration toward 40%+ GPV penetration
- 🌍 International expansion providing 30-40% growth tailwind
- 🤖 AI platform enhancements (Sidekick, Magic) driving merchant retention
- 📊 87 days of time value captures all major 2025 catalysts

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):
- 💥 Substantial capital required: Even OTM LEAPs cost $10-15 per contract ($1,000-1,500 each)
- 😱 100x+ P/E valuation leaves zero margin for error - any growth miss triggers correction
- 📉 Q1 2025 showed gross margin pressure and cautious guidance
- ⚖️ Regulatory headline risk from compliance complexity
- 🔻 Market saturation signals from Q2 2024 (sellers up, orders down)
- 🎢 High beta tech name vulnerable to broader market selloffs
- ⏰ Time decay: Theta will erode value if stock trades sideways

Estimated P&L (current market):
- 💰 $150 calls: ~$15-18 per contract ($1,500-1,800 each)
- 💰 $155 calls: ~$12-15 per contract ($1,200-1,500 each)
- 📈 Max profit: Unlimited above breakeven (strike + premium paid)
- 📉 Max loss: 100% of premium paid if SHOP below strike at expiration
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$165-173 (depending on strike/premium)

Risk level: HIGH (can lose 100% of premium) | Skill level: Advanced

⚠️ WARNING: DO NOT attempt this trade unless you:
- Can afford to lose 100% of the premium paid
- Understand Q3 earnings (Nov 4) creates major volatility risk
- Are comfortable with 100x+ valuation multiples
- Can actively monitor position through multiple earnings events
- Have conviction in Shopify's 25%+ long-term growth trajectory

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just deployed $26 MILLION betting that Shopify continues its exceptional growth trajectory through February 2026. This isn't speculative YOLO money - this is calculated institutional capital positioning for multiple catalysts: Q3 earnings (Nov 4), Black Friday Cyber Monday (Nov 29-Dec 2), and Q4 earnings (Feb 2026).

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Sophisticated player expects SHOP to stay well above $140 (11% downside protection from current $154)
- 💰 They're willing to pay $11.29 in time value for 87 days of exposure to holiday season
- ⚖️ Positioning suggests confidence in 26%+ revenue growth, Shop Pay acceleration, and international expansion
- 📊 Similar to buying prime real estate before major development - lock in position before catalysts unfold

If you own SHOP:
- ✅ Hold through Q3 earnings if you can stomach 8-12% volatility either way
- 📊 Strong gamma support at $155-157.50 provides cushion for normal volatility
- ⏰ Q3 results (Nov 4) and BFCM data (early December) are critical validation points
- 🎯 If earnings show revenue >26% and FCF margin >17%, $170-180 becomes realistic Q4 target
- 🛡️ Set mental stop at $150 (major gamma support) to protect YTD gains

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ⏰ Tuesday, November 4 before market open is the moment of truth - mark your calendar!
- 🎯 Post-earnings pullback to $150-155 would be attractive entry point (assuming results solid)
- 📈 Looking for confirmation of GMV acceleration, Shop Pay approaching 40% GPV, and international momentum
- 🛍️ BFCM 2025 (Nov 29-Dec 2) provides near-term GMV data point
- 🚀 Longer-term (6+ months), AI platform adoption and ChatGPT integration are legitimate re-rating catalysts
- ⚠️ Current 100x+ P/E requires multiple positive catalysts to align - low margin for error

If you're bearish:
- 🎯 Wait for Q3 earnings before initiating short positions - fighting momentum into major catalyst is dangerous
- 📊 First meaningful support at $155 (gamma wall), major support at $150 (strong put gamma)
- ⚠️ Watch for gross margin compression continuing from Q1 2025 or order volume trends deteriorating
- 📉 Put spreads ($160/$150 or $150/$140) offer defined risk way to play downside post-earnings
- ⏰ Timing is critical: Early bearish positioning risks getting run over by positive catalysts

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 November 4 (Tuesday) before market open - Q3 2025 earnings report (10 days away!)
- 📅 November 28 (Friday) - Weekly options expiration, post-earnings price discovery
- 📅 November 29 - December 2 - Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 (critical GMV data)
- 📅 December 19 - Monthly OPEX, quarterly triple witch expiration
- 📅 Early February 2026 - Q4 2025 earnings (full-year results + 2026 guidance)
- 📅 February 20, 2026 - Expiration date for this $26M trade
- 📅 May 29-30, 2026 - Editions.dev 2025 developer conference (platform updates)

Final verdict: This is a textbook "smart money positioning for catalysts" signal from institutional players. At 82% YTD with Q3 earnings in 10 days, the big money is betting on continued execution across GMV, Shop Pay, international expansion, and AI adoption. This doesn't guarantee success - the 100x+ P/E means any miss will be punished - but it shows sophisticated capital believes the growth story has legs through at least Q1 2026. Be strategic: let earnings provide clarity, confirm the thesis, then position for the holiday season and beyond.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 11,359x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Earnings create binary event risk with potential for significant gaps either direction. High-growth stocks trading at premium valuations can experience rapid drawdowns if fundamentals deteriorate.

About Shopify Inc.: Shopify offers an e-commerce platform primarily to small and medium-sized businesses with a $202.2 billion market cap, providing subscription solutions and merchant services in the Prepackaged Software industry.

Subscribe to AInvest Option Labs

Don’t miss out on the latest issues. Sign up now to get access to the library of members-only issues.
jamie@example.com
Subscribe