SE $9M Call Buying - Massive Bets Before Q3 Earnings!

📅 October 28, 2025 | 🐋 Unusual Institutional Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Two massive call option buys totaling $9 MILLION in premium just hit the tape for Sea Limited! Traders are loading up on October 31st expiring calls - just 3 days away - at the $130 strike when the stock is trading at $159. With Q3 earnings dropping November 11th, these deep in-the-money calls look like a leveraged bullish position ahead of major catalysts. Translation: Big money is making a very short-term bet on SE holding these levels or pushing higher!

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📊 Company Overview

Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) is a Singapore-based consumer internet powerhouse dominating Southeast Asia:
- Market Cap: $94.8 Billion
- Industry: Consumer Internet & E-commerce
- Core Businesses: E-commerce (Shopee), Digital Entertainment (Garena - Free Fire game), and Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney)
- Current Price: $159.33 (as of trade time)
- Market Position: Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platform by GMV with ~52% market share

Sea has been on a tear in 2025, delivering extraordinary returns as Shopee achieved profitability after years of losses and Garena's gaming business staged a comeback. The company operates the dominant Free Fire mobile game globally and has rapidly expanded its SeaMoney fintech ecosystem across Southeast Asia.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 28, 2025):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
13:34:08	SE	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-10-31	$5.9M	$130	4.1K	5K	1,909	$159.33	$30.70
13:36:46	SE	ASK	BUY	CALL	2025-10-31	$3.1M	$130	5.1K	5K	1,000	$159.71	$30.55

🤓 What This Actually Means

These are deep in-the-money calls with just 3 days until expiration! The traders:

• 🎰 Bought 2,909 total $130 calls for $9M in premium
• 📅 Expiration: October 31, 2025 (just 3 days away!)
• 💵 Break-even: Already deeply profitable - these are $29-30 in-the-money
• 🎯 Betting SE stays above $160 or pushes higher before Friday
• ⏰ Timing: Positioned right before Q3 earnings on November 11th

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (1,553x average size) - This is incredibly rare activity! These trades are roughly 1,500 times larger than typical SE option activity. We're talking about trades that happen maybe once or twice a year - this is institutional-level positioning that demands attention!

The execution is telling: one trade at MID-market and one aggressively hitting the ASK shows urgency. With these calls so deep in-the-money (delta approaching 100), this is essentially a leveraged stock replacement strategy - someone wants massive SE exposure RIGHT NOW for minimal time premium. The 3-day expiration suggests they're either:
1. Delta hedging a larger position
2. Betting on a near-term catalyst or news event
3. Rolling forward from another position
4. Making a very short-term directional bet

The fact that open interest was already 5K before these trades suggests this strike has been popular, and now we're seeing renewed aggressive buying!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

SE has been absolutely crushing it! The stock has surged approximately 80-195% in 2024-2025, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the company's path to profitability. After years of burning cash to dominate Southeast Asia, Sea has finally proven it can make money!

Key observations:
- 🏔️ Strong uptrend: Currently at $159, up from much lower levels earlier in the year
- 📊 Profitability inflection: Three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP income for Shopee
- 🎢 Increased volatility: Options getting active ahead of Q3 earnings
- 💪 Sector leadership: Outperforming e-commerce peers as profitability narrative takes hold

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $159.23

The gamma chart reveals critical levels where options activity will influence price action:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma):
- $155 (Strongest): -0.66M net gamma (1.76M total) - Major support just 2.7% below current price
- $150: -0.32M net gamma (1.11M total) - Secondary support floor at 5.8% below
- $140: -0.43M net gamma (1.51M total) - Deep support if we see major pullback
- $135: 0.44M net gamma (1.50M total) - Transitional level
- $130: 0.97M net gamma (2.79M total) - THIS IS THE TRADE STRIKE! Strong call gamma support

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma):
- $160 (Immediate): 1.56M net gamma (2.87M total) - Key psychological level just 0.5% above
- $165: 0.95M net gamma (1.95M total) - First major resistance at 3.6% above
- $167.50: 1.11M net gamma (1.19M total) - Secondary resistance
- $170: 2.09M net gamma (2.82M total) - Major resistance zone at 6.8% above
- $175: 1.43M net gamma (2.25M total) - Heavy resistance if we breakout

📊 Gamma Verdict: Net GEX bias is BULLISH with total call gamma (19.33M) significantly exceeding put gamma (9.97M). The $160 level right above current price represents the nearest hurdle, but once cleared, SE has a path toward $170+. The massive calls at $130 (the trade strike) create a support floor and show institutions are comfortable using that level as downside protection.

Implied Move Analysis

⚠️ Note: Implied move data is not available in our database for SE at this time. However, we can infer from the gamma structure and options activity that the market is pricing in elevated volatility around the Q3 earnings event on November 11th.

Based on typical earnings moves for SE and similar e-commerce names, we'd expect:
- Earnings week move: ±8-12% ($13-19 range)
- Post-earnings digestion (30 days): ±15-20% ($24-32 range)

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🎪 Catalysts

🔜 Upcoming Events

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 11, 2025 🎯

This is THE major catalyst! Sea Limited will report Q3 2025 earnings on November 11, 2025, before market open, with a conference call at 7:30 AM ET.

Wall Street is watching closely:
- Consensus EPS: $0.95-$1.11
- Revenue Estimate: $5.61-$5.63 billion, representing strong growth
- Key Focus Areas:
- Shopee profitability expansion and GMV growth
- Garena bookings growth (expected 30%+ for full year 2025)
- SeaMoney's rapid scaling and lending book growth

According to Sensor Tower, Garena could see a 47% increase in revenue in Q3 2025, making this a huge catalyst for beating expectations!

E-commerce Profitability Inflection 📦

Shopee has achieved a critical milestone: three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP income as of Q2 2025. This marks a transformational shift from nearly a decade of cash-burning operations.

Q2 2025 Results:
- Revenue growth: 33.7% YoY to $3.8 billion
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value): $28.6 billion, up 28% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA: positive and improving quarter-over-quarter
- Logistics optimization: SPX Express reduced costs by 15% in Asia and 23% in Brazil YoY

The market will be laser-focused on whether this profitability trend accelerates in Q3 and how guidance looks for Q4!

Garena Gaming Recovery Momentum 🎮

After post-pandemic headwinds, Garena has staged a remarkable comeback:

Q2 2025 Performance:
- Revenue: $559.1 million (up 28.4% YoY)
- Bookings: surged 23% with over 30% growth expected for full year 2025
- Average daily active users (DAUs) approaching pandemic highs

Catalyst Drivers:
- Free Fire relaunched in India in 2023 with sustained double-digit growth potential
- New game launches: Delta Force Mobile crossed 10 million downloads; Free City entering phased launch
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 59%, contributing approximately $1.2 billion EBITDA annualized

This is pure cash generation that funds the rest of the business!

SeaMoney Fintech Expansion (The "Quiet" Growth Story) 💳

SeaMoney represents the fastest-growing and potentially most transformative segment:

Q2 2025 Performance:
- Revenue: $882.8 million (up 70% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 31% (four consecutive quarters of profitability)
- Loan book: $5.8 billion, expanding 75% YoY
- Active loan users: 28 million (up 50% YoY)

Strategic Advantages:
- Ecosystem integration with Shopee and Garena creates first-party data advantages
- Digital banks established in Indonesia (SeaBank), Philippines (SeaBank), and Singapore (MariBank)
- Product expansion: Mobile wallets, consumer lending, BNPL (SPayLater), payment processing, insurance, and wealth management

The fintech segment could be the long-term differentiator that outlasts e-commerce price wars, as competitors cannot easily replicate Sea's bundled ecosystem at scale!

Analyst Sentiment Turning Bullish 📊

Consensus Rating: Buy/Moderate Buy

Price Targets:
- Average: $182.66-$202.98 (14-30% upside from current levels)
- High: $230-$241
- Recent upgrades: Bank of America upgraded to Buy with $215 target (October 16, 2025)

Analyst Distribution:
- Buy ratings: 17 analysts
- Hold ratings: 5-6 analysts
- Sell ratings: 0 analysts

The Street is getting more bullish as profitability proves sustainable!

✅ Recently Completed

Q2 2025 Earnings Beat (August 2025) 💚

Sea delivered strong Q2 results that beat expectations:
- Overall revenue: $5.26 billion (up 38.2% YoY, beating estimates of $4.98 billion)
- Net income exceeded estimates, demonstrating operating leverage
- All three business segments showed acceleration

This set the stage for optimism heading into Q3!

Competitive Positioning Strengthened 🛡️

Shopee maintains ~52% GMV share in Southeast Asia, well ahead of competitors:
- Lazada (Alibaba): ~$18.8 billion GMV (roughly 1/3 of Shopee's volume)
- TikTok Shop: ~$16 billion GMV in 2023, but banned in Indonesia (Sea's largest market)

Sea's integrated logistics network (SPX Express) offers faster, cheaper delivery than competitors, creating a sustainable moat!

YouTube Partnership for Social Commerce 📱

Sea announced a YouTube partnership integration and Shopee Live streaming to drive engagement and counter TikTok's content-commerce fusion. This expands the platform's reach and keeps users engaged longer!

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on gamma levels, upcoming catalysts, and analyst expectations:

🚀 Bull Case (40% probability)

Target: $180-$215 by early 2026

Drivers:
- ✅ Q3 earnings crush expectations with accelerating profitability
- ✅ Garena delivers the projected 47% revenue increase
- ✅ SeaMoney loan book growth continues at 70%+ YoY pace
- ✅ Q4 guidance shows sustainable margin expansion across all segments
- ✅ Analyst upgrades follow earnings with higher price targets

Key Levels:
- Break through $170 resistance with volume (gamma resistance zone)
- Clear $175 and establish new base
- Target zone: $180-215 aligns with analyst average price targets

Why this works: SE is at an inflection point where all three businesses are firing on all cylinders. If Q3 proves profitability is sustainable and accelerating, the market will re-rate the stock higher to reflect its evolution from "cash burner" to "profitable compounder."

⚖️ Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $150-$175 range through Q1 2026

Drivers:
- ✅ Solid Q3 earnings meet expectations without major surprises
- ✅ Profitability continues but doesn't accelerate dramatically
- ✅ Competition from TikTok and Lazada remains intense
- ✅ Stock consolidates after strong 2025 rally
- ✅ Valuation concerns at 80-94x trailing P/E ratio cap upside

Key Levels:
- Support holds at $155 (strongest put gamma level)
- Resistance caps upside at $170 (major call gamma wall)
- Trade range respects gamma support/resistance bands

Why this works: SE has already had a massive run, so some consolidation is healthy. The market may want to see several more quarters of proof before pushing significantly higher. The gamma structure suggests $155-175 is where most options players are positioned.

😰 Bear Case (15% probability)

Target: $120-$145 by Q1 2026

Drivers:
- ❌ Earnings disappoint on slowing GMV growth or margin compression
- ❌ Competition intensifies, forcing increased marketing spend
- ❌ SeaMoney credit quality deteriorates as loan book expands
- ❌ Broader market correction hits high-multiple growth stocks
- ❌ Regulatory headwinds in Southeast Asia impact operations

Key Levels:
- Break below $155 support triggers cascade to $150
- $140 becomes critical support (deep put gamma floor)
- Worst case: Test $130 level (the trade strike from these calls!)

Why this could happen: The valuation is stretched at 80-94x P/E, making SE vulnerable to any execution missteps. Competition from TikTok Shop, Lazada, and MercadoLibre remains fierce, and Southeast Asian e-commerce regulations continue evolving.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Cash-Secured Put at Support

Play: Sell SE December 19th $150 puts

Rationale: The gamma data shows strong support at $150 (5.8% below current price). Selling puts here gives you a cushion while collecting premium on earnings volatility.

Risk: $150 per contract max (if SE goes to zero)
Reward: ~$8-12 premium per contract (estimate)
Break-even: ~$138-142 (varies by entry price)

Why this works: You're positioned at major gamma support, get paid to wait, and would be happy to own SE at an effective cost basis around $138-142 if assigned. Plus, this gives you exposure through earnings with defined risk.

⚖️ Balanced: Bull Call Spread into Earnings

Play: Bull call spread (November 21st expiration - captures earnings)
- Buy SE $160 calls
- Sell SE $175 calls

Risk: ~$7-10 net debit per spread (estimate)
Reward: $15 max profit (spread width)
Break-even: ~$167-170
Sweet Spot: SE rallies to $175+ on strong earnings

Why this works: Captures the bullish thesis through earnings while defining risk. If SE beats and pops through $170 resistance, you capture most of the move with limited capital at risk. The $175 target aligns with analyst expectations.

🚀 Aggressive: Follow the Whale (Short-Term Long Calls)

Play: Buy SE November 8th $165 calls (expires right before earnings)

Risk: ~$4-6 per contract (estimate - will decay fast!)
Reward: Potentially 2-3x if SE runs into earnings
Break-even: ~$169-171

Why this works: You're betting SE rallies into earnings as anticipation builds, similar to what the $9M whale might be playing. This is a pure momentum trade targeting the gamma resistance at $165-170. You're out before earnings, avoiding the binary event risk.

High Risk Note: This is a very short-term directional bet with rapid theta decay. Only allocate 1-2% of portfolio max! Set a stop loss if SE breaks below $155 support.

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⚠️ Risk Factors

💰 Valuation Stretched

SE trades at 80-94x trailing P/E ratio, significantly higher than many profitable tech companies. This premium reflects high growth expectations, but any miss or guidance disappointment could trigger sharp multiple compression. The stock has already surged 80-195% in 2024-2025, so much good news may be priced in!

⚔️ Intensifying Competition

The Southeast Asian e-commerce war is brutal:
- TikTok Shop is growing rapidly (though banned in Indonesia)
- Lazada backed by Alibaba with deep pockets
- MercadoLibre targeting low-value segment in Brazil
- Local players gaining share in various markets

Price wars could force SE to increase marketing spend, pressuring the newly achieved profitability!

💳 SeaMoney Credit Risk

The loan book is expanding 75% YoY to $5.8 billion, which is fantastic for growth. But rapid lending expansion always carries credit risk. If the Southeast Asian economy slows or if underwriting standards aren't tight enough, we could see loan losses spike. This is the classic fintech risk that has burned other companies!

🌍 Geographic Concentration

Heavy dependence on Southeast Asian markets means SE is exposed to regional economic slowdowns, currency volatility, and regulatory changes. The company has limited diversification outside this region (except Brazil for Shopee).

📋 Regulatory Uncertainty

E-commerce regulations across Southeast Asia remain evolving, with governments increasingly scrutinizing platform dominance, merchant fees, and consumer protection. Any adverse regulatory changes could impact Shopee's business model or force costly compliance changes.

🎮 Gaming Business Cyclicality

While Free Fire is hot right now, gaming is inherently cyclical and hit-driven. SE experienced this painfully post-pandemic when gaming engagement dropped. New game launches might not replicate Free Fire's success, and player engagement could wane.

⏰ Profitability Sustainability Question

This is the elephant in the room: Can SE maintain profitability while still investing for growth? The company slashed sales and marketing from 26.3% of revenue (2022) to 20.8% (2024), which helped profitability. But to fend off TikTok and Lazada, they might need to spend more aggressively again. The balance between growth and profitability is delicate!

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $9M in call buying is serious institutional money making a leveraged bullish bet with very short timeframe! The use of deep in-the-money calls with just 3 days to expiration suggests someone either:
1. Wants immediate leveraged exposure to SE RIGHT NOW
2. Is hedging a larger short position
3. Knows something about near-term momentum or news
4. Is rolling forward from another position

The setup is compelling: SE has finally achieved profitability across its core segments after years of losses. All three businesses - Shopee, Garena, and SeaMoney - are accelerating. The stock has massive momentum, and Q3 earnings on November 11th could be a major catalyst if they beat and raise.

The concerns are real: Valuation is stretched at 80-94x P/E, competition is brutal, and much good news might already be priced in. The stock has already doubled (or more) in 2024-2025, so some consolidation wouldn't be surprising.

If you own SE:
- Consider selling covered calls at $170-175 to monetize the gamma resistance
- Hold core position through earnings if you believe in the long-term story
- Maybe trim 10-15% if you're sitting on huge gains and want to reduce risk

If you're watching:
- Wait for a pullback to $150-155 support levels for better risk/reward entry
- Use options to define your risk (spreads or put sales at support)
- Watch how the stock acts around $170 resistance - a clean break could signal more upside

If you're bullish:
- Consider the balanced bull call spread to participate with limited risk
- November 21st expiration captures earnings with some time for the move to develop
- Or be patient and sell puts at $150 support - get paid to wait for your entry

Mark your calendar: 📅
- November 11, 2025 - Q3 Earnings (before market open) - This is THE catalyst!
- October 31, 2025 - These $9M whale calls expire (just 3 days away!)
- Watch $160 level - Gamma suggests this is key near-term pivot

Final thought: The $9M whale trade is bullish, but the ultra-short timeframe makes it less of a long-term conviction signal. However, SE is genuinely at an inflection point. If you believe they can sustain profitability while defending market share, the 14-30% analyst upside looks reasonable. But don't chase here - wait for your pitch! 🎯

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. The unusualness score of 1,553x average size indicates this is institutional-scale trading activity. Individual traders should carefully consider their risk tolerance and position sizing. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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About SE: Sea Limited is a Singapore-based consumer internet company operating Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platform (Shopee), a global gaming business (Garena - Free Fire), and a rapidly growing fintech ecosystem (SeaMoney). With a $94.8 billion market cap, Sea dominates digital commerce in Southeast Asia and is expanding into digital financial services across the region.