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By Ainvest in unusual-options-activity —

RIOT Options Analysis - Bear Call Spread

💰 $14.3M in unusual options activity detected. Premium-only analysis reveals the strategy, catalysts, and trading opportunities.

🚀 RIOT Massive $9.8M Bear Call Spread - Smart Money Betting Against Bitcoin Mining Rally! 💰

📅 November 28, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just constructed a $14.3 MILLION bear call spread on Riot Platforms at 10:36:09 AM today! This sophisticated trade sold 40,000 contracts of $16 strike calls while buying 40,000 contracts of $20 strike calls, both expiring January 16, 2026. With RIOT trading at $16.58 amid the Bitcoin mining boom, this institutional player is betting that the stock won't exceed $20 by mid-January - collecting $5.3M in net premium while capping upside risk. Translation: Smart money sees the recent rally as overextended and expects RIOT to trade range-bound or lower over the next 7 weeks!

📊 Company Overview

Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company focused on building, supporting, and operating blockchain technologies:
- Market Cap: $5.56 Billion
- Industry: Finance Services
- Current Price: $16.58 (up from recent lows)
- Primary Business: Bitcoin Mining (primary revenue driver) + Engineering (custom electrical products)

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 28, 2025 @ 10:36:09):

Time Symbol Buy/Sell Type Expiration Premium Strike Volume OI Size Spot Option Price Option Symbol
10:36:09 RIOT SELL CALL 2026-01-16 $9.8M $16 44K 50K 40,000 $16.58 $2.44 RIOT20260116C16
10:36:09 RIOT BUY CALL 2026-01-16 $4.5M $20 40K 30K 40,000 $16.58 $1.13 RIOT20260116C20

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a bear call spread - a classic strategy for profiting from sideways or bearish price action! Here's the breakdown:

  • 🔴 Sold $16 calls: Collected $9.8M ($2.44 per contract × 40,000 contracts)
  • 🔵 Bought $20 calls: Paid $4.5M ($1.13 per contract × 40,000 contracts)
  • 💰 Net premium collected: $5.3M ($1.31 per contract × 40,000)
  • 🎯 Profit zone: RIOT stays below $16 at January expiration = keep full $5.3M
  • ⚠️ Max loss: $10.7M if RIOT closes above $20 (=$4 spread × 40,000 - $5.3M credit)
  • 📊 Breakeven: $17.31 (=$16 strike + $1.31 net credit)
  • ⏰ Time decay advantage: 49 days until January 16 expiration

What's really happening here:

The trader is betting that RIOT's recent rally driven by Bitcoin's surge won't sustain through mid-January. They're collecting $5.3M in premium by selling calls at-the-money ($16 strike vs $16.58 spot), protected by long $20 calls if the stock explodes higher. This is NOT your neighbor Bob's Robinhood account - the position size represents 4 million shares worth ~$66M!

The strategy's logic:
- If RIOT stays below $16: Keep full $5.3M (100% profit on risk)
- If RIOT trades $16-$17.31: Partial profit as short calls go ITM
- If RIOT trades $17.31-$20: Spread loses money but capped at $10.7M
- If RIOT explodes above $20: Long calls kick in, limiting max loss to $10.7M

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (12,794x average size) - This happens maybe a few times a year! The $9.8M short call leg alone is larger than 100% of RIOT option trades in the past 30 days. We're talking about institutional desk-level size here.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

RIOT ytd chart

Riot Platforms is showing strong momentum in late 2025, currently trading at $16.14. The chart reveals the volatile nature of Bitcoin mining stocks - with RIOT experiencing significant swings throughout the year as Bitcoin prices fluctuate.

Key observations:
- 📈 Recent rally: Stock has rebounded from earlier lows, tracking Bitcoin's recovery
- 🎢 High volatility: Typical for crypto-correlated names with outsized moves
- ⚡ Bitcoin correlation: RIOT moves largely in lockstep with BTC price action
- 📊 Volume spike: Increased trading activity suggests institutional repositioning

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

RIOT gamma sr

Current Price: $16.14

The gamma exposure map shows critical price levels where options activity creates natural support and resistance:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $16.00 - Strongest nearby support with 24.16M total gamma exposure (13.45M net call gamma)
- This is exactly where the bear call spread starts - not a coincidence!
- Dealers will defend this level as massive call selling occurred here
- Only 0.87% below current price - very close floor
- $15.50 - Secondary support at 2.80M gamma (essentially neutral with -0.002M net)
- 3.97% below current price
- $15.00 - Major floor with 14.05M gamma (7.85M net call gamma)
- 7.06% below current price - substantial cushion
- $14.00 - Deep support at 7.20M gamma
- 13.26% below current price
- $13.00 - Extreme downside floor at 6.63M gamma
- 19.45% below current price

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $16.50 - Immediate resistance with 3.75M gamma (1.87M net call gamma)
- Only 2.23% above current price
- $17.00 - Secondary ceiling at 6.54M gamma (4.25M net call gamma)
- 5.33% above current price - key test level
- $17.50 - Extended resistance at 1.52M gamma (1.26M net call gamma)
- 8.43% above current price
- $18.00 - Major resistance zone with 4.19M gamma (3.14M net call gamma)
- 11.52% above current price
- $19.00 - Strong ceiling at 3.86M gamma (3.20M net call gamma)
- 17.72% above current price

What this means for traders:

The gamma data perfectly explains this trade! The trader sold calls at $16 (massive 24M gamma support level) and bought calls at $20 (well above the 17.72% resistance at $19). Between $16-$20, there's significant call gamma resistance at $17, $18, and $19 that should naturally cap upside. Market makers hedging these positions will sell stock as RIOT approaches these levels, creating price ceilings.

The strongest gamma concentration is at $16 where this spread begins. This suggests the trader believes RIOT will struggle to sustain prices above this level, especially with 49 days of time decay working in their favor.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish (97.17M call gamma vs 33.70M put gamma) - Overall positioning leans bullish, but the specific strikes in this spread suggest skepticism about continuation above $16-$17.

Implied Move Analysis

RIOT implied move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (Dec 5 - 7 days): ±$1.20 (±7.44%) → Range: $14.90 - $17.30
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (Dec 19 - 21 days): ±$2.31 (±14.33%) → Range: $13.79 - $18.41
  • 📅 January OPEX (Jan 16 - 49 days): ±$3.10 (±19.25%) → Range: $12.99 - $19.21
  • 📅 Yearly LEAPS (Dec 18, 2026 - 385 days): ±$9.82 (±60.98%) → Range: $6.28 - $25.92

Translation for regular folks:

Options traders are pricing in a 7.44% move ($1.20) over the next week and a 19.25% move ($3.10) through the January 16 expiration when this bear call spread expires. The implied move upper range for January is $19.21 - conveniently just below the $20 strike where the trader bought protection!

This is MASSIVE volatility pricing - nearly 20% expected move in 7 weeks. The trader constructing this bear call spread is betting that RIOT won't reach the upper end of that range. The $17.31 breakeven on the spread sits right in the middle of the January implied move ($12.99-$19.21), suggesting roughly 50/50 odds based on current volatility.

The weekly upper range of $17.30 aligns perfectly with the $17 gamma resistance level and the spread's breakeven at $17.31. Smart positioning!

🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts (Already Happened)

Convertible Notes Offering - December 2024 ✅

Riot completed a $594.4 million convertible notes offering with $579.2M net proceeds after fees. The notes carry a 0.75% interest rate and mature January 15, 2030, with a conversion price of $14.86 per share (32.5% premium). The company used proceeds to acquire 5,784 additional Bitcoin, bringing total holdings to 17,722 BTC (141% increase over prior year).

Impact: The $14.86 conversion price is actually BELOW current trading levels at $16.58, meaning these notes are in-the-money for conversion. This creates potential dilution overhang - the notes represent 40M+ shares (12% dilution at current 332M shares outstanding). Shareholders already diluted 21.8% in the past year.

November 2024 Production Update ✅

Riot produced 495 Bitcoin despite 7% network difficulty increase, with deployed hash rate reaching 30.8 EH/s (up 5% MoM, 148% YoY). Operating hash rate hit 25.8 EH/s (13% MoM increase). Bitcoin holdings grew to 11,425 BTC (5% increase from October). The company maintained industry-leading operational efficiency with 3.8¢/kWh all-in power cost and 22.3 J/TH fleet efficiency.

Impact: Strong operational metrics demonstrate RIOT's execution on capacity expansion. However, the 148% hash rate growth only translated to marginal Bitcoin production increases, highlighting the post-halving profitability squeeze.

Block Mining Acquisition - July 23, 2024 ✅

RIOT acquired Block Mining for $92.5 million ($18.5M cash + $74M stock), adding 60 MW operational capacity in Kentucky with expansion potential to 155 MW. The deal added immediate 1 EH/s hash rate and raised 2024 deployed hash rate guidance from 31 EH/s to 36 EH/s. The acquisition diversified power supply beyond Texas ERCOT into the MISO region (TVA and Big Rivers Electric).

Impact: Geographic and power diversification reduces concentration risk, but integration is still ongoing. The $74M stock portion created dilution during a period when the stock was trading significantly higher than today.

🚀 Upcoming Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

Q4 2024 Earnings - February 24, 2025 (88 days away!) 📊

Riot will report Q4 2024 results with consensus revenue of $129.3M (64% YoY growth) or alternative estimate of $114M. Consensus EPS is a loss of $0.27 per share (56.25% YoY decline). This is the CLOSEST major catalyst to the January 16 option expiration (39 days before).

What to watch:
- Bitcoin production following November's 495 BTC
- Impact of 30.8 EH/s deployed hash rate on mining revenue
- Power curtailment credits from Texas ERCOT participation (previously $31.7M annually)
- Bitcoin holdings relative to 11,425 BTC at end of November
- Updates on Block Mining integration and Kentucky expansion
- Critical: Guidance on 2025 hash rate targets and AI/HPC data center timeline

Why this matters for the trade: If earnings disappoint or guidance is weak, RIOT could easily fall below $16 by January expiration, allowing the spread to capture maximum profit. Even a "meet expectations" result might not provide enough fuel to push RIOT above the $17.31 breakeven.

AI/HPC Data Center Initiative - Evaluation Ongoing 🤖

On January 21, 2025, RIOT launched formal evaluation of AI/HPC uses for 600 MW of Corsicana capacity, halting previously planned Bitcoin mining Phase II expansion. This represents a major strategic pivot:

Capacity allocation:
- Up to 600 MW designated for AI/HPC workloads (out of 1.0 GW total ERCOT-approved capacity)
- 400 MW currently operational for Bitcoin mining
- 858 total acres following land acquisitions

Strategic advantages:
- Proximity to Dallas (major AI/cloud computing hub)
- 265 acres of developable land
- Operational 400 MW infrastructure as foundation
- Altman Solon feasibility study confirmed significant AI/HPC potential

Financial impact:
- $245 million reduction in 2025 capital expenditures due to halted Bitcoin mining expansion
- Revenue potential undisclosed, but analysts view pivot as "encouraging" for long-term value creation
- Timeline unclear - deployment timeline TBD

Why this matters for the trade: This is a LONG-TERM catalyst (likely 12-18+ months to materialize). For the January 16 expiration, this provides NO near-term bullish catalyst. The uncertainty around execution, timeline, and customer acquisition actually creates overhang that could cap the stock below $20.

Hash Rate Expansion Trajectory

RIOT is targeting 56 EH/s total self-mining hash rate capacity upon full deployment in 2025, up from current 30.8 EH/s. Block Mining Kentucky sites are expected to expand to 110 MW by end of 2024 (from current 60 MW).

Why this matters for the trade: Hash rate expansion is already largely priced in. The 2024 target of 36 EH/s was raised following the Block Mining acquisition. With Bitcoin halving already occurred and network difficulty at all-time highs, hash rate growth doesn't translate 1:1 to production growth. This is an incremental positive but not a re-rating catalyst for January.

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative) - These Support the Bear Call Spread!

Post-Halving Profitability Crisis 💸

This is the BIGGEST headwind facing RIOT and supports the bearish thesis:

Translation: Even with 148% hash rate growth, RIOT is burning cash. Each Bitcoin costs $32K to mine when it used to cost $3.8K. That's unsustainable unless Bitcoin prices keep climbing.

Bitcoin Price Volatility 📉

RIOT's revenue and profitability are "hitched tightly to Bitcoin prices". While BTC rallied to $100K+ in late 2024, prolonged decline would severely impact:
- Mining revenue (currently $67.5M/quarter)
- Value of 17,722 BTC holdings (marked-to-market on balance sheet)
- Ability to service $594.4M convertible debt
- Stock price correlation with BTC

Bitcoin price forecasts for 2025 range widely ($116K-$250K), creating uncertainty. Some analysts suggest halving effects are diminishing with 98% of BTC already mined.

Why this matters for the trade: If Bitcoin consolidates or pulls back over the next 7 weeks, RIOT will likely follow. The stock trades as a leveraged Bitcoin play. Any BTC weakness keeps RIOT below the $16-$17 resistance levels.

Environmental & Regulatory Risks ⚖️

RIOT faces mounting ESG and climate regulation pressure:
- Dismal ESG score of 1.06/10 from Bloomberg; 0 on environmental factors due to lack of disclosure
- Greenpeace highlighted RIOT as operating "the most energy-intensive Bitcoin mine in the U.S."
- New climate legislation could impose "significant costs" on energy-intensive mining operations
- Escalating government scrutiny regarding environmental impact

Competitive Pressure from MARA 📊

RIOT is falling behind market leader Marathon Digital:
- Marathon's (MARA) 53.2 EH/s hash rate vs RIOT's 30.8 EH/s (73% larger)
- MARA's 44,893 BTC holdings vs RIOT's 17,722 BTC (153% more)
- MARA's December production: 890 BTC vs RIOT's 516 BTC (72% higher)
- Market cap: MARA at $4.8B vs RIOT at $5.56B (RIOT actually trading at premium despite inferior metrics!)

Why this matters for the trade: RIOT's valuation appears stretched relative to the industry leader. This creates downside risk if the market reprices RIOT to reflect its #2 position.

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios for the January 16, 2026 expiration:

📉 Bear Case (45% probability) - SPREAD WINS BIG

Target: Below $16

How we get there:
- 😰 Bitcoin consolidates or corrects from $100K+ levels (most likely scenario)
- 📊 Q4 earnings meet/miss on February 24 provides no catalyst before January 16 expiration
- ⛏️ Post-halving profitability challenges intensify ($32K mining costs)
- 🔴 Network difficulty continues rising, squeezing margins further
- 💸 Market reprices RIOT vs Marathon (MARA) (MARA produces 72% more Bitcoin with better economics)
- ⚠️ Environmental regulatory headline risk (unlikely but possible)
- 📉 Broader crypto mining sector weakness as reality of post-halving economics sets in

Spread P&L: Maximum profit of $5.3M - Both calls expire worthless, trader keeps full net premium collected.

Why this is most likely: The January expiration comes BEFORE earnings (Feb 24), so there's no positive catalyst. Bitcoin miners are facing the harshest economics in years. RIOT would need sustained Bitcoin rally just to maintain current levels. Strong gamma support at $16 means stock likely trades in $15-$16.50 range.

🎯 Base Case (35% probability) - SPREAD STILL PROFITABLE

Target: $16.00 - $17.30 range

Most likely scenario:
- ⚡ Bitcoin trades sideways in $95K-$110K range (digesting recent gains)
- ✅ RIOT tracks BTC with modest volatility, testing $17 gamma resistance
- 🔄 Hash rate expansion continues as planned but doesn't drive re-rating
- 📊 AI/HPC pivot remains in evaluation phase - no material updates before January
- 🏭 Production metrics remain solid but not exceptional
- 💰 Stock trades between strong gamma support ($16) and first resistance ($17)

Spread P&L: Profit of $1.2M - $5.3M depending on where RIOT closes within range:
- At $16.50: Short calls worth $0.50, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $5.3M credit - $2M loss = $3.3M profit
- At $17.00: Short calls worth $1.00, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $5.3M credit - $4M loss = $1.3M profit
- At $17.31 (breakeven): Short calls worth $1.31, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $0 (break even)

Why this makes sense: RIOT respects the $16-$17 gamma concentration zone. No major catalyst before expiration. Time decay works heavily in spread's favor over 49 days. Even if stock inches higher, trader still profits below $17.31.

📈 Bull Case (20% probability) - SPREAD TAKES LOSSES

Target: $17.31 - $20.00

What could go wrong (for the spread):
- 🚀 Bitcoin explodes to $120K-$150K on institutional adoption surge or favorable regulations
- 💎 Crypto mining sector re-rates higher on scarcity value thesis
- 🤝 Major AI/HPC partnership announcement for Corsicana facility (unlikely before January but possible)
- 📊 Exceptional December production update drives enthusiasm
- ⚡ RIOT breaks through $17-$18-$19 gamma resistance on sustained buying
- 🌊 Retail FOMO into crypto stocks drives momentum

Spread P&L: Losses of $0 to $10.7M depending on price:
- At $18.00: Short calls worth $2.00, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $5.3M credit - $8M loss = -$2.7M loss
- At $19.00: Short calls worth $3.00, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $5.3M credit - $12M loss = -$6.7M loss
- At $19.99: Short calls worth $3.99, long calls worthless → Net P&L = $5.3M credit - $15.96M loss = -$10.66M loss

Important: Even in this scenario, the long $20 calls cap maximum loss at $10.7M if RIOT closes above $20. That's the beauty of the spread structure - defined risk despite unlimited theoretical exposure on naked short calls.

Why this is less likely: Requires multiple catalysts to align simultaneously. January expiration comes before earnings. Bitcoin would need to rally another 20%+ from current levels. RIOT faces significant gamma resistance at $17, $18, $19. Post-halving economics create fundamental headwind to valuation expansion.

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Follow the Smart Money

Play: Construct your own bear call spread on RIOT (smaller size obviously!)

Structure: Sell $17 calls / Buy $20 calls (January 16 expiration)
- Start at slightly higher strike than institutional trade to reduce risk
- Collect premium betting RIOT stays below $17
- Use 1-2 contracts max ($100-200 shares exposure)

Why this works:
- 🎯 Aligned with institutional positioning (they see cap at $16-$17)
- 📊 Strong gamma resistance at $17-$20 creates natural ceiling
- ⏰ 49 days of time decay works in your favor
- 🛡️ Defined risk - know maximum loss upfront
- 💸 No earnings catalyst before expiration (Feb 24 is after Jan 16)
- ⛏️ Post-halving economics create fundamental headwind

Estimated P&L (adjust for current premiums):
- 💰 Collect ~$0.80-1.20 per spread (net credit)
- 📈 Max profit: $80-120 per spread if RIOT below $17
- 📉 Max loss: $220-280 per spread if RIOT above $20
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$17.80-18.20

Risk level: Low-Moderate (defined risk, institutional validation) | Skill level: Intermediate

⚖️ Balanced: Bet on Volatility Crush

Play: Sell iron condor around expected trading range

Structure:
- Sell $15 puts / Buy $13 puts
- Sell $18 calls / Buy $20 calls
(January 16 expiration)

Why this works:
- 🎯 Profits if RIOT stays in $15-$18 range (aligned with gamma levels and implied move)
- 📊 Implied volatility extremely high (7.44% weekly move priced) - likely overstated
- ⏰ Time decay accelerates as expiration approaches
- 🔄 Captures premium on both sides of market
- 💰 Strong gamma support at $15-$16 and resistance at $17-$18 define range

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Collect ~$1.20-1.80 per iron condor
- 📈 Max profit: $120-180 if RIOT stays $15-$18 at expiration
- 📉 Max loss: $180-220 if RIOT below $13 or above $20
- 🎯 Profit zone: $15.00 - $18.00 (wide range!)

Key advantage: Profits from range-bound trading, which is most likely scenario given lack of near-term catalyst and post-halving headwinds.

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk both sides) | Skill level: Intermediate-Advanced

🚀 Aggressive: Contrarian Long Play (HIGH RISK!)

Play: Buy call spreads betting on Bitcoin rally continuation

Structure: Buy $17 calls / Sell $22 calls (February 21 expiration - after earnings!)
- Extends beyond January to capture Q4 earnings catalyst
- Targets $17-$22 range on sustained Bitcoin strength
- Defined risk but requires multiple catalysts

Why this could work:
- 🚀 Bitcoin continues rally to $120K-$150K on institutional adoption
- 📊 Q4 earnings on Feb 24 beat estimates, provide strong guidance
- 🤝 AI/HPC partnership announcement re-rates the stock
- ⚡ RIOT breaks through gamma resistance on momentum
- 💎 Market recognizes RIOT's industry-leading power costs ($8,300/BTC after credits) as competitive moat

Why this could blow up:
- 😱 Going against institutional positioning - they're betting bearish for a reason!
- 💸 Post-halving economics terrible: $32K mining costs vs $3.8K last year
- 📉 Bitcoin pullback crushes leveraged miners like RIOT
- ⚠️ Environmental regulations or ESG pressure creates headline risk
- 📊 Earnings disappoint or guidance weak

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Pay ~$1.50-2.00 per spread
- 📈 Max profit: $3.00-3.50 if RIOT above $22 (100%+ return)
- 📉 Max loss: $1.50-2.00 (100% loss if RIOT below $17)
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$18.50-19.00

⚠️ WARNING: You're fighting a $14.3M institutional bet AND terrible industry fundamentals. Only consider this if Bitcoin conviction is EXTREMELY high and you can afford 100% loss.

Risk level: EXTREME (fighting smart money) | Skill level: Advanced only

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: A sophisticated institutional player just made a $14.3M bet that RIOT won't exceed $20 by mid-January. They sold $9.8M worth of at-the-money calls at $16 (largest RIOT option trade in 30 days by 12,794x!), protected by $4.5M of $20 calls, netting $5.3M in premium. This isn't a hedge - it's a directional bet with serious conviction.

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Smart money expects RIOT to stay range-bound or decline over next 7 weeks
- 💰 They're comfortable collecting premium at current levels ($16.58) with 49 days of time decay
- ⚖️ Risk management via $20 long calls shows they respect Bitcoin's volatility
- 📊 Positioning BEFORE Q4 earnings (Feb 24) suggests weak catalyst outlook
- 💸 Post-halving profitability challenges likely factored into their thesis

The institutional logic:
1. Bitcoin miners face worst economics in years: $32K mining costs vs $3.8K last year
2. Network difficulty at all-time highs, hashprice down 59%
3. RIOT burning cash despite revenue growth (Q3 loss of $154.4M)
4. No near-term catalyst before January expiration (earnings Feb 24)
5. AI/HPC pivot is multi-year story, not 7-week catalyst
6. Strong gamma resistance at $17-$20 should cap upside
7. Bitcoin consolidation or pullback from $100K+ highly possible

If you own RIOT:
- 🚨 Seriously consider trimming exposure - this institutional position is a warning signal
- 📊 Strong gamma support at $16 provides some floor, but broken support leads to $15
- ⚡ If Bitcoin keeps rallying to $120K+, RIOT could reach $18-$20, but that's the bull case (20% probability)
- 🛡️ Set mental stop at $15 (gamma support) to protect capital
- ⏰ Key risk period: Next 7 weeks with no positive catalyst until Feb 24 earnings

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ✅ Wait for better entry point - institutional bet suggests downside or consolidation ahead
- 🎯 Look for pullback to $14-$15 range (major gamma support) for long entry
- 📈 Long-term (12+ months), AI/HPC pivot and hash rate expansion to 56 EH/s could re-rate stock
- ⚠️ Near-term (January), risk/reward favors the bear call spread thesis
- 💎 If you're bullish on Bitcoin continuing to $120K+, RIOT offers leveraged exposure - but timing is critical

If you want to follow this trade:
- 🎯 Construct smaller bear call spread: Sell $17 calls / Buy $20 calls (1-2 contracts)
- 💰 Collect premium betting on range-bound or weak action through January 16
- 🛡️ Defined risk via long $20 calls protects against Bitcoin moonshot scenario
- ⏰ Time decay is your friend over 49 days with no catalyst
- 📊 Gamma resistance at $17-$20 supports the thesis

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 January 16, 2026 - Bear call spread expiration (49 days away)
- 📅 February 24, 2025 - Q4 2024 earnings report (88 days away, 39 days AFTER spread expiration)
- 📅 Ongoing - AI/HPC feasibility evaluation and customer engagement
- 📅 2025 - Hash rate expansion to 56 EH/s target
- 📅 Daily - Bitcoin price action (most important variable!)

Final verdict: This is the clearest "fade the rally" signal you'll see from institutional money. Post-halving economics are terrible, no catalyst before expiration, and smart money is willing to bet $14.3M on it. The gamma data supports range-bound trading between $16-$17. Unless Bitcoin goes parabolic to $120K+ in the next 7 weeks (low probability), this bear call spread should profit. For retail traders, the message is clear: Be cautious on RIOT at current levels, wait for better entry points, and respect what the big money is telling you.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 12,794x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Bear call spreads have limited profit potential but defined risk. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Bitcoin mining stocks are highly volatile and correlated to cryptocurrency prices, which can move violently in either direction.

About Riot Platforms Inc.: Riot Platforms is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company focused on building, supporting, and operating blockchain technologies, with a $5.56 billion market cap in the Finance Services industry.

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