RGTI Quantum Computing Moonshot - $27M Institutional Bets on Parabolic Move! - September 24, 2025

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🏢 Company Overview

Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI)
- Description: Rigetti Computing Inc is engaged in the business of full-stack quantum computing. The company offers full-stack quantum computing platform as a cloud service
- Market Cap: $10.2B
- Sector: Services-Computer Programming Services

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $27.1 MILLION on RGTI quantum computing bets at 10:04:08 AM! With the stock already up 2,400% YTD to $31.42, institutional money is loading up on both September 26 weekly calls and October 3rd monthlies. Translation: Big money expects this quantum rocket to keep soaring despite the vertical move! 🌙

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

The Tape (September 24, 2025 @ 10:04:08):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:04:08	RGTI	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-09-26	$12M	$28	30K	34K	30,000	$31.42	$4.08
10:04:08	RGTI	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-10-03	$8.6M	$32.5	30K	-	30,000	$31.42	$2.85
10:04:08	RGTI	MID	SELL	PUT	2025-10-03	$6.5M	$29	30K	1.5K	30,000	$31.42	$2.17

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This is VOLCANIC activity on Rigetti Computing! 🌋 Here's the playbook:

• $12M on weekly $28 calls expiring in 2 days - That's betting on immediate continuation of the rally
• $8.6M on $32.5 calls for October 3rd - Expecting new highs above current levels within 9 days
• Sold $6.5M in $29 puts - Collecting premium while showing confidence stock won't crash below $29

Unusual Score: 🔥 10/10 VOLCANIC - 12,504x average size! This happens NEVER. We're talking size of a small hedge fund position here!

The net position is aggressively bullish - they're risking $20.6M to potentially make multiples if RGTI keeps climbing. With implied volatility at 68.3%, the market expects fireworks! 🎆

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Chart

Holy quantum leap! 🚀 RGTI has gone absolutely parabolic with +2,400% YTD gains, rocketing from around $1.25 to current levels at $31.42. The chart shows:

• Exponential acceleration starting in August 2025
• No meaningful pullbacks during the entire run
• Volume explosion confirming institutional accumulation
• All-time high at $32.40 hit today (September 24)

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $33.11 (as of gamma calculation)

The gamma exposure reveals critical levels that explain today's massive trades:

Key Resistance Levels (Orange bars above):
- 🟠 $34 strike: Immediate resistance with 0.71M total gamma
- 🟠 $35 strike: Major wall with 2.37M gamma concentration
- 🟠 $37 strike: Extended target with 1.12M gamma

Key Support Levels (Blue bars below):
- 🔵 $33 strike: Strongest support with 1.74M gamma (current price area)
- 🔵 $31 strike: Mega support with 5.10M gamma - massive floor
- 🔵 $30 strike: Additional support with 3.26M gamma
- 🔵 $28-29 zone: Heavy put gamma creating strong support band

Gamma Insight: The bullish net GEX bias with 32.27M call gamma vs 15.00M put gamma shows market makers are positioned for upside. The massive gamma concentration at $31 creates a "gravity well" that should act as strong support on any dips.

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events 🔮

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 11, 2025
- Wall Street expects EPS of -$0.04 to -$0.05 with revenue around $2.17M (Source: MarketBeat)
- Key focus: Progress on commercial Novera QPU sales and government contracts

100+ Qubit System Launch - Q4 2025
- Rigetti plans to launch their next-gen quantum system maintaining 99.5% fidelity
- This would be a major technological milestone demonstrating quantum advantage

Trump Administration Quantum Executive Actions - Expected Soon
- Reports indicate the White House is preparing executive actions on quantum technology
- Could trigger additional government funding and contracts

Lyra™ 336-Qubit System - 2026
- Long-term roadmap includes scaling to 1,000+ qubits by 2026-2029
- Would position RGTI as quantum computing leader

Recently Completed ✅

$5.8M Air Force Contract - September 2025
- Secured three-year AFRL contract with QphoX for quantum networking
- Validates government interest in Rigetti's technology

99.5% Gate Fidelity Achievement
- Achieved record fidelity with 36-qubit Cepheus-1 system
- 2x reduction in error rates vs previous generation

Novera QPU Commercial Launch
- First commercially available 9-qubit quantum processor at $900K
- Adopted by Fermilab, Air Force Research Lab, and Horizon Quantum

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on gamma levels and catalyst timeline, here's what we're looking at:

🚀 Bull Case (40% chance)

Target: $37-40
- Break above $34-35 gamma resistance triggers squeeze
- Positive news on government contracts or technology milestones
- Quantum computing hype continues with sector rotation
- Options activity suggests this is the institutional expectation

😐 Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $31-34
- Consolidates around current $33 gamma magnet zone
- Digests massive gains before next leg
- Theta decay hurts weekly call buyers
- Strong support at $31 holds any dips

😰 Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $28-30
- Profit-taking after 2,400% run triggers correction
- Falls to major gamma support at $28-29 put wall
- Still up massively YTD even at these levels
- Sold puts suggest floor around $29

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: "Quantum Support Play"

• Sell RGTI Oct 18 $28 Puts for ~$2.50 premium
• Collect 9% return in 3 weeks if stock stays above $28
• Worst case: Own RGTI at $25.50 effective cost (20% below current)
• Works if stock consolidates or continues higher

⚖️ Balanced: "Gamma Squeeze Rider"

• Buy RGTI Oct 3 $33 Calls for ~$3.00
• Play the potential break above $34 resistance
• Risk $300 per contract to make $400+ if hits $37
• Same expiration as institutional flow

🚀 Aggressive: "YOLO Quantum Leap"

• Buy RGTI Sep 26 $32 Calls for ~$1.50
• Pure momentum play on continuation
• Expires in 2 days - maximum leverage
• Following the $12M weekly bet at $28 strike

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Valuation Insanity: $10.2B market cap on $7.9M revenue - that's 1,290x sales! 🤯
• Parabolic Reversal: What goes up 2,400% can come down FAST
• Competition: IBM, Google, IonQ all gunning for quantum supremacy
• Timeline Risk: Commercial quantum advantage still 5-10 years away
• Liquidity: Wide spreads on options could hurt exits
• IV Crush: 68% implied vol means options are EXPENSIVE

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone with DEEP pockets just bet $27M that RGTI's quantum rocket isn't done launching! 🚀 The combination of aggressive call buying and put selling shows supreme confidence in continued upside.

If you own it: Hold with trailing stops at $28-29 gamma support. This momentum could continue.

If you're watching: Wait for a pullback to $30-31 support zone or play it safe with put selling.

If you're bearish: Stay away! Don't fight this momentum with shorts.

The quantum computing revolution is capturing imaginations and RGTI is riding the wave. With government contracts flowing and technology milestones ahead, the music might not stop yet. But remember - when stocks go parabolic, they eventually come back to Earth. Size accordingly!

Mark your calendar: Watch September 26 weekly expiration and October 3rd for potential volatility as these massive positions expire.

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⚠️ Options involve risk and aren't suitable for everyone. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.