🔥 RGTI: $14M Call Sale Signals Institutional Profit-Taking on Quantum High-Flyer!
Institutional traders just executed $$21.66M in massive call selling after rally on RGTI. - **November 11, 2025:** [Q3 2025 Earnings](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/RGTI/earnings/) See the full institutional flow analysis and retail trading opportunities inside.
📅 September 19, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just dumped $14 MILLION worth of RGTI calls right at the money - that's the kind of institutional selling that makes you sit up and pay attention! With the stock up 44% YTD and approaching September expiration, this whale is cashing out their chips after a massive quantum computing rally that took RGTI from $20 to nearly $29 in just weeks.
🏢 Company Overview
Rigetti Computing Inc is a quantum computing pioneer building the future of computing:
- Market Cap: $8.0 billion
- Industry: Computer Programming Services
- Core Business: Full-stack quantum computing platform delivered via cloud service through Rigetti QCS
- Employees: ~140
- YTD Performance: +44.25% (currently $28.85)
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | C/P | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:05:16 | RGTI | BELOW BID | SELL | CALL | 2025-09-26 | $14M | $23 | 30K | 70K | 28,731 | $27.5 | $4.85 |
| 11:05:16 | RGTI | BELOW BID | SELL | PUT | 2025-09-26 | $2.9M | $25 | 31K | 2.3K | 28,731 | $27.5 | $1.02 |
| 11:05:16 | RGTI | BELOW BID | SELL | PUT | 2025-09-26 | $460K | $20 | 30K | 69K | 28,731 | $27.5 | $0.16 |
| 11:05:16 | RGTI | BELOW BID | SELL | CALL | 2025-09-26 | $4.3M | $29 | 29K | 712 | 28,731 | $27.5 | $1.48 |
Option Symbols:
- RGTI+20250926+C+00002300 - View Option Chart
- RGTI+20250926+P+00002500 - View Option Chart
- RGTI+20250926+P+00002000 - View Option Chart
- RGTI+20250926+C+00002900 - View Option Chart
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This is textbook profit-taking behavior! Let me break this down:
- 💰 Total Premium Collected: $21.66 million across 120,000+ contracts
- 🎯 Strike Concentration: Average strike of $24.20 vs spot price of $27.50
- 📉 Execution Below Bid: ALL trades filled below bid = aggressive selling pressure
- 🐋 Size Context: 28,731 contracts per leg = controlling 2.87 million shares worth $79 million
- ⏰ Time to Expiry: Just 7 days until September 26 expiration
Translation for us regular folks: This whale just executed a massive closing trade, selling deep in-the-money calls ($23 strike when stock at $27.50) and puts to collect $21.66M in premium. That's like seeing the smart money head for the exits after a 44% rally - time to pay attention! 👀
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
Looking at the YTD chart, RGTI has been on an absolute tear:
- YTD Return: +44.3% (crushing the broader market)
- Recent Surge: Explosive move from $15 to $28 in September
- Key Support: $20 level (previous resistance now support)
- Current Level: $28.85 - testing recent highs
- Max Drawdown: -69.75% (massive volatility)
- Volatility: 155.1% (extremely high even for quantum stocks)
The stock exploded higher in late August/early September with multiple 300M+ volume days. This vertical move is exactly the kind of parabolic action that triggers profit-taking from smart money.
🎪 Catalysts
📅 Upcoming Events
- November 11, 2025: Q3 2025 Earnings - Critical update on quantum roadmap progress
- End of 2025: 100+ qubit system target - Major technical milestone
- 2026: 336-qubit Lyra™ system development
🔥 Recent Developments
- July 2025: Achieved 99.5% two-qubit fidelity - triggered 30% stock surge
- $5.8M Air Force Contract: Three-year quantum networking project with QphoX
- Quanta Partnership: $250M combined investment over five years
- 36-qubit Cepheus-1: Already achieved mid-2025 target ahead of schedule
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on Wall Street consensus of $17.43 (yes, below current price!) and recent volatility:
🚀 Bull Case ($35+ by October) - 25% chance
- Positive Q3 earnings surprise with contract announcements
- Breakthrough in quantum fidelity or qubit count
- Additional government contracts or enterprise partnerships
- Short squeeze potential with high short interest
😐 Base Case ($22-28) - 50% chance
- Consolidation after massive rally
- Normal profit-taking and volatility
- Awaiting Q3 earnings for next catalyst
- Range-bound trading in current zone
😰 Bear Case ($15-20) - 25% chance
- Mean reversion after 44% YTD gain
- CEO Kulkarni selling 1M shares for $12M
- Reality check on 3-4 year timeline to quantum advantage
- Competition from IonQ, D-Wave, and other quantum players
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "Wait for the Dust to Settle"
Stay on sidelines or take profits if holding
- Massive institutional selling suggests near-term top
- Wait for support test at $20-22 level
- Consider buying shares on 20%+ pullback
- Set alerts for $22 (support) and $20 (major support)
⚖️ Balanced: "Volatility Harvest"
Sell RGTI Oct $30 Covered Calls (if you own shares)
- Collect premium while stock consolidates
- Strike above recent highs provides upside room
- Use premium to reduce cost basis
- Exit if stock breaks below $25
🚀 Aggressive: "Fade the Rally"
Buy RGTI Oct $25 Puts (currently ~$2.50)
- Play the mean reversion after parabolic move
- Risk only $250 per contract
- Target $20 support for 100% gain potential
- Stop loss if stock breaks above $32
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
- 📉 Valuation Disconnect: Trading 60% above analyst targets
- 🔬 Technology Risk: Quantum advantage still 3-4 years away
- 💸 Cash Burn: $164.83M trailing losses despite government contracts
- 🎢 Extreme Volatility: 155% implied volatility means wild swings
- 🏃 Insider Selling: CEO and insiders taking profits at these levels
- 🤝 Competition: IonQ showing stronger private sector traction
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: When someone dumps $14 million in calls right after a stock runs up 44%, that's not gambling - that's profit-taking from someone who rode this quantum wave perfectly. This whale is essentially saying "thanks for the ride, but I'm out at $28!"
The Action Plan:
✅ If you own RGTI: Consider taking some chips off the table - follow the smart money
✅ If you're watching: Wait for a pullback to $20-22 before entering new positions
✅ If you're bearish: The October $25 puts offer attractive risk/reward for a mean reversion play
Mark your calendar for November 11th - that's when Q3 earnings will either justify this $8 billion valuation or trigger a reality check. With the stock trading 60% above analyst targets and massive insider selling, this looks more like a "sell the news" setup than a breakout.
Remember: Quantum computing is revolutionary technology, but revolutionary doesn't always mean profitable. This whale just showed us that sometimes the best trade is knowing when to take your profits and run! 💪
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.