ONON: Swiss Running Giant Sees $48 MILLION Call Dump - Is the Sprint Over?
Someone just SOLD **$4.8 MILLION** worth of [ONON](https://www.ainvest.com/stocks/NYSE-ONON/?utm_source=optionlabs&utm_medium=post) call options right before the stock hit $43! 📉 This volcanic-level a...
📅 September 15, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just SOLD $4.8 MILLION worth of ONON call options right before the stock hit $43! 📉 This volcanic-level activity scored a 10/10 unusual score - that's 2,823x larger than average and literally UNPRECEDENTED for ONON! With the stock down 22.7% YTD despite crushing earnings, this institutional-sized exit could signal either massive profit-taking or bearish positioning ahead. Time to lace up and pay attention! 👟
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
Check out this monster trade that hit the tape at 12:49 PM:
| Time | Symbol | Side | Type | Strike | Premium | Volume | OI | Size | Spot Price | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:49:49 | ONON | SELL | CALL | $45 | $4.8M | 6.5K | 694 | 5,433 | $43.03 | $8.75 |
Expiration: January 15, 2027 (487 days away - LEAPS!)
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This trade scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score - we've NEVER seen anything like this in ONON! 🌋
Here's the translation for us regular folks:
The Call Sell (Bearish/Neutral Signal): - Collecting $8.75 per contract in premium - Selling deep-in-the-money calls ($45 strike vs $43 stock) - Total premium collected: $4.8 MILLION - Volume of 6.5K vs Open Interest of only 694 (9x OI!)
What This Strategy Suggests: - Profit Taking: With ONON recovering from lows, someone's cashing out - Covered Call: Could be a long holder collecting premium while capping upside - Bearish Bet: Expecting ONON to stay below $45 through 2027 - Unusualness: 2,823x larger than average ONON option trade!
Translation: Someone with SERIOUS money just took $4.8M off the table - either locking in gains or betting ONON's best running days are behind it! 🏃♂️💨
🏢 Company Overview
On Holding AG is a premium performance sports brand rooted in technology, design, and impact. The Swiss company has revolutionized running shoes with their iconic CloudTec® cushioning system and expanded into apparel and accessories.
Key Company Stats: - 💼 Market Cap: $14 billion - 🏃 Sector: Athletic Footwear & Apparel - 🌍 Founded: 2010 in Switzerland - 📈 NYSE: Listed in 2021
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
📈 ONON Year-to-Date Performance with Volume Analysis
Looking at the YTD performance, ONON is experiencing some turbulence:
Key Metrics: - 📉 YTD Return: -22.72% (Ouch!) - 📊 Current Price: $42.79 - 📈 Start of Year: $55.37 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -40.82% (April low) - 💪 Volatility: 5.78
Technical Levels: - 🎯 Current: $42.79 - 🚀 Strike Sold: $45 (5.2% upside) - 📉 YTD High: ~$55 (28.5% above current) - 😰 YTD Low: ~$32.70 (23.6% below current)
Translation: ONON has been struggling in 2025, down 23% YTD! This whale might be saying "I'm out before it gets worse!" 📉
🎪 Catalysts
Buckle up! Here's what's on the horizon:
Upcoming Events:
📊 Q3 2025 Earnings - November 11-18, 2025
👟 Cloud 6 Launch Impact - Ongoing
- Latest iteration launched March 2025
- 40% bio-based materials
- Enhanced durability features
- Driving Q2/Q3 sales momentum
🤖 LightSpray™ Technology Commercial Release - Imminent
- Revolutionary robotic manufacturing
- 75% reduction in CO2 emissions
- 3-minute production time
- Successfully tested at Paris Olympics
🏦 Retail Expansion - Ongoing
- Nearly 50 owned stores globally
- China expansion accelerating
- DTC channel growing 45%+ YoY
Past Events (Already Happened):
✅ Q1 2025 Results - Strong Beat
- Record quarterly sales: CHF 726.6M (43% YoY growth!)
- DTC channel: 45.3% growth
- Raised full-year guidance
🌟 Zendaya Partnership Announced
- Multi-year collaboration
- 'Dream Together' campaign launched
- Expanding brand visibility
💰 2026 Strategic Targets Set
- Double 2023 sales to $4B by 2026
- EBITDA margin target: >18%
- Post-2026: 20-25% annual growth
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on the massive call sale and mixed signals:
🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)
Target: $55-$60 by year-end - Q3 earnings crush estimates - LightSpray technology drives margin expansion - Holiday sales exceed expectations - Stock reclaims YTD highs
⚖️ Base Case (50% chance)
Target: $42-$48 - Steady growth continues - Stock grinds sideways to slightly up - Call seller's $45 strike acts as resistance - Consolidation after volatile year
😰 Bear Case (25% chance)
Target: $35-$40 - Growth slows from tough comps - Competition intensifies from Nike/Adidas - Market rotation out of growth stocks - Retest April lows
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Swiss Safety Net"
- Strategy: Sell $40 puts, 30-45 days out
- Premium: ~$1.50-2 per contract
- Why it works: Collect premium with 7% downside cushion
- Risk: Assignment if ONON drops below $40
⚖️ Balanced Play: "Fade the Whale"
- Strategy: Buy $40/$45 call spread for December
- Cost: ~$2 per spread
- Max profit: $3 per spread (150% return)
- Why it works: Profit if ONON recovers but stays under whale's strike
🚀 Aggressive Play: "Contrarian Runner"
- Strategy: Buy $50 calls for March 2026
- Cost: ~$3-4 per contract
- Why it works: Bet on Q4 recovery after whale exits
- Risk: Total loss if recovery doesn't materialize
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
- Valuation Concerns: P/E ~95 is steep for slowing growth
- YTD Performance: Already down 23% - momentum broken
- Competition: Nike and Adidas fighting back hard
- Trade Policy: Vietnam sourcing concerns with tariffs
- Currency Headwinds: Strong USD vs CHF hurting margins
- Whale Exit: This $4.8M sale could signal insider pessimism
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: Someone just dumped $4.8 MILLION in ONON calls - that's 2,823x larger than average and literally UNPRECEDENTED activity! 🌋 With the stock already down 23% YTD, this whale is either taking profits off the table or positioning for more pain ahead.
Here's your action plan:
If you own ONON: - Consider taking some profits on any bounce toward $45 - The whale's exit could cap upside near that level - Watch Q3 earnings closely for growth trajectory
If you're watching: - Let the dust settle from this massive sale - $40 could offer support if tested - Wait for clearer trend before jumping in
If you're bullish: - This could be a contrarian opportunity - Company fundamentals still strong (43% Q1 growth!) - Long-term story intact despite YTD weakness
Mark your calendar: November 11-18 (Q3 earnings) will be CRUCIAL for determining if this whale was right to bail! 📅
Remember: When someone sells $4.8 million in calls on a stock that's already down 23%, they're either brilliant or about to miss the rebound. Given ONON's strong fundamentals but weak price action, this feels like risk management rather than insider knowledge. But hey, that's still a LOT of money walking away! 💸
⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This volcanic-sized trade is extraordinary and happens maybe once in ONON's lifetime. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader watching the whales make moves!