ONON Big Money Bets on Swiss Running Giant Before Earnings!

📅 September 23, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $7.7M in total premium on ONON call options across four massive trades! This isn't your average retail account - we're seeing institutional money betting big on the Swiss running giant ahead of their November earnings. The largest single trade? A $3M bet that's 1,764x larger than the average ONON option trade. Translation: Big money expects fireworks! 🎆

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🏢 Company Overview

On Running (ONON) is a Swiss premium sportswear company that's revolutionizing athletic footwear. With a $14.89B market cap, this isn't just another sneaker brand - it's a technology company that happens to make the world's most innovative running shoes. Think of them as the Tesla of running gear, complete with Roger Federer as a strategic partner holding a 3% equity stake.

Key Stats:
- Market Cap: $14.89B
- Current Price: $46.57
- Revenue (TTM): $3.42B
- Business: Premium performance sports brand rooted in technology, design, and impact

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened - Complete Screenshot Analysis

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	C/P	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
11:00:26	ONON $46.5C 10/17	ABOVE ASK	BUY	CALL	2025-10-17	$2M	46.5	15K	13	9,500	$46.57	$2.1
11:00:26	ONON $45C 10/24	MID	SELL	CALL	2025-10-24	$3M	45	15K	15K	9,500	$46.57	$3.17
10:56:12	ONON $45C 10/24	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-10-24	$1.6M	45	5K	15K	5,000	$46.58	$3.2
10:56:12	ONON $46.5C 10/17	ASK	BUY	CALL	2025-10-17	$1.1M	46.5	5K	13	5,000	$46.58	$2.13

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This is UNPRECEDENTED activity for ONON! 🚨 Here's the breakdown:

• 🔥 $7.7M total premium across four massive trades
• 📈 100% call buying - zero put activity means pure bullish conviction
• 🎯 Strike prices clustered around current levels ($45-$46.5) = modest upside expectations
• ⏰ Mixed expirations (October 17th & 24th) = different time horizons but same direction
• 🐋 Institutional size - These aren't retail trades, this is serious money

The heaviest action is on the ONON $45C 10/24 calls with both massive buying ($1.6M) and selling ($3M), suggesting either profit-taking on existing positions or sophisticated strategies like covered calls.

Unusual Score: 9/10 - 🔥 EXTREME
This is 1,764x larger than average - we're talking about activity that happens maybe once a year for this ticker!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Chart

The YTD chart tells a compelling story of resilience and recovery. After starting 2025 at $55.37, ONON took a beating in the spring (touching lows around $38), but has shown remarkable strength since May. The stock surged to $60+ levels in early summer before settling into the current $45-47 range. That 52-week volatility of 51.6% explains why options traders are paying up for premium - this stock moves! 📊

Key technical observations:
- Support zone: $42-45 range has held multiple times
- Resistance: Previous highs around $60-63 from earlier this year
- Volume spikes: Institutional interest clearly visible during major moves
- Current position: Trading near technical support with room to run

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis:

This professional chart shows where the real action happens in ONON options:

• 🔵 Blue bars (Put Gamma) = Support levels below current price where buying pressure kicks in
• 🟠 Orange bars (Call Gamma) = Resistance levels above current price where selling pressure emerges
• Bigger bars = Stronger levels where market makers have to hedge more aggressively

For ONON at $46.57, the gamma landscape reveals:
- Strong support appears around $45 (massive put gamma concentration)
- First resistance near $47-48 where call gamma builds
- Major resistance at $50+ levels where significant call open interest sits

Translation for regular folks: Options activity shows heavy interest at these key price levels, making them natural magnets for the stock price. These aren't just lines on a chart - they're where millions of dollars in hedging activity creates real buying and selling pressure! 💪

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Catalysts

• 📅 November 11, 2025 - Q3 2025 Earnings Report (EPS estimate: $0.33, Revenue estimate: $955-959M)
• 🚀 Holiday season sales - Peak athletic footwear buying period
• 🏃‍♂️ Marathon season - Spring 2026 race registrations drive demand
• 🌏 China expansion updates - Management guidance on Asia Pacific growth

Already Happened (Recent Wins)

• ✅ Raised 2025 guidance - Net sales growth upgraded to 31% from 28%
• ✅ LightSpray™ technology launch - Revolutionary 3-minute manufacturing process
• ✅ Q2 2025 revenue beat - Despite EPS miss, strong top-line growth
• ✅ Analyst upgrades - Multiple price target increases from major firms

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using our gamma-based analysis and the massive option flow, here are the realistic scenarios:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $52-55
- Gamma resistance at $50 gets broken on earnings beat
- Holiday season demand exceeds expectations
- China growth story accelerates
- Why it works: $7.7M in call buying suggests institutions see upside

😐 Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $47-50
- Stock gravitates toward $47-48 gamma resistance levels
- Modest earnings beat, in-line guidance
- Gradual climb toward analyst price targets
- Why it works: Current option strikes suggest modest expectations

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $42-45
- Falls back to major gamma support around $45
- Earnings disappoint or guidance cut
- Broader market weakness hits growth stocks
- Why it works: High volatility means downside risk exists

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: "Sleep Well at Night"

Play the Support Bounce
- Strategy: Buy ONON stock around $45 support with 6% stop loss
- Target: $50 (11% upside)
- Risk: Limited downside if gamma support holds
- Why this works: Big money is betting on upside, support looks solid

⚖️ Balanced: "Riding the Wave"

Follow the Smart Money
- Strategy: Buy ONON $47C 10/24 calls (slightly out-of-the-money)
- Cost: ~$2.50 per contract
- Target: $52+ by October 24th (100%+ gains)
- Risk: Time decay if stock stays flat
- Why this works: Similar strikes to institutional activity, reasonable time frame

🚀 Aggressive: "YOLO with Training Wheels"

Earnings Explosion Play
- Strategy: Buy ONON $50C 11/15 calls for earnings
- Cost: ~$1.50 per contract
- Target: $55+ post-earnings (300%+ potential)
- Risk: Could lose 100% if earnings disappoint
- Why this works: Massive call buying suggests something big coming

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⚠️ Risk Factors

What could derail this rocket ship:

• 📉 Earnings miss - Company has mixed earnings history (50% beat rate)
• 🌍 Tariff impact - Management warned of 25-30% cost increases from potential tariffs
• 💸 High valuation - PE ratio of 88.46 leaves little room for error
• 🎢 Volatility - 51.6% volatility means big moves in both directions
• ⏰ Time decay - October options expire soon, need quick moves
• 🏃‍♂️ Competitive pressure - Nike, Adidas still dominate athletic footwear

Remember: Options can go to zero. Never risk more than you can afford to lose! 🚨

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: When you see $7.7M in institutional call buying that's 1,764x larger than average, you pay attention! 👀

This isn't some meme stock pump - ONON is a legitimate growth company with revolutionary technology, celebrity partnerships, and expanding global reach. The raised guidance and LightSpray™ innovation give smart money reasons to be excited.

Action Plan:
- 🟢 Own it: If you believe in the growth story, November earnings could be the catalyst
- 👀 Watching: Monitor how the stock handles $47-48 gamma resistance
- 🔴 Bearish: Wait for a better entry around $42-45 support

Mark your calendar: November 11th earnings could be fireworks! 🎆

But remember - this is unprecedented activity for ONON. When institutions bet this big, they usually know something we don't. The question is: Are you ready to run with the big dogs? 🏃‍♂️💨

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Disclaimer: Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.