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By Ainvest in options-flow —

🏃 ONON $1M Bullish Call Bet - Swiss Running Brand Betting Big on 2026! 🚀

Massive $1M institutional bet detected on ONON call options. Someone just dropped $1 MILLION on ONON calls this morning at 10:34:19! This massive bet bought 35,700 contracts of the $40 strike calls expiring March 20, 2026 - wagering on a 14% rally over the next 133 days. With ONON currently trading

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $1 MILLION on ONON calls this morning at 10:34:19! This massive bet bought 35,700 contracts of the $40 strike calls expiring March 20, 2026 - wagering on a 14% rally over the next 133 days. With ONON currently trading at $35.03 and down 36.6% year-to-date, a major player is positioning for a comeback story in 2026. Translation: Institutional money is betting that the Swiss running shoe maker's recent struggles are temporary!

📊 Company Overview

On Holding AG (ONON) is a premium Swiss athletic footwear and apparel company competing against giants like Nike and Adidas:
- Market Cap: $11.6 Billion
- Industry: Athletic footwear & apparel
- Current Price: $35.03 (down from $55.37 YTD start)
- Primary Business: Premium running shoes featuring CloudTec cushioning technology, performance apparel, and athletic accessories
- Revenue Model: Hybrid distribution through both direct-to-consumer (38.8% of sales) and selective wholesale partnerships

The company has carved out a premium niche with innovative products like the LightSpray manufacturing technology and strategic partnerships with celebrities (Zendaya) and luxury brands (Loewe), while expanding aggressively in high-growth markets like China.

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 7, 2025 @ 10:34:19):

Time Symbol Side Buy/Sell Type Expiration Premium Strike Volume OI Size Spot Option Price
10:34:19 ONON ASK BUY CALL $40 2026-03-20 $1M $40 36K 185 35,700 $35.03 $3.06

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a long-term bullish speculation on ONON's recovery and growth! Here's the breakdown:

  • 💸 Huge premium paid: $1.09M ($3.06 per contract × 35,700 contracts)
  • 🎯 Ambitious target: $40 strike is 14% above current price - needs substantial rally
  • ⏰ Strategic timing: 133 days to expiration captures Q4 2024 earnings (March 2025), full holiday sales results, China expansion progress, and multiple product launches
  • 📊 Massive size: 35,700 contracts represents 3.57 million shares worth ~$125M of stock exposure
  • 🚀 Conviction play: This isn't a hedge - it's a pure bullish bet on ONON's turnaround

What's really happening here:
This trader is betting that ONON's 36.6% YTD decline has created a buying opportunity. At $3.06 per option, they're paying a reasonable premium to get leveraged exposure to what they see as an undervalued growth story. The $40 target represents a return to levels last seen in mid-2025, suggesting they believe the market has overreacted to recent concerns about profitability and competition.

The March 20, 2026 expiration is smart timing - it gives the company enough time to prove Q4 2024 earnings strength, demonstrate holiday season momentum, show results from the 100-store China expansion, and launch multiple products including the Cloudboom Max and MI350 competitors. If any of these catalysts hit, the stock could easily surge past $40.

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (193x average size) - This happens a few times per year for ONON! The volume of 35,700 contracts compared to existing open interest of just 185 contracts is remarkable. This single trade increased OI by 19,300% - showing this is completely new positioning, not rolling existing contracts.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

ONON Ytd Chart

ONON has been absolutely hammered in 2025 - down -36.6% YTD with current price of $35.09 (started the year at $55.37). The chart tells a painful de-rating story - after peaking at $63.62 in early 2025 during the AI/tech bubble peak, the stock has been in a relentless downtrend.

Key observations:
- 📉 Brutal decline: From $63.62 high to $35.09 current - a 44.85% max drawdown
- 💔 Failed rallies: Multiple attempts to break above $50 in Q2 and Q3 all rejected
- 🎢 High volatility: 50.1% annualized vol shows this isn't a stable blue-chip - daily swings of 3-5% common
- 📊 Volume patterns: Notable volume spikes during selloffs (March, August, October) suggest institutional distribution
- ⚠️ Downtrend intact: Trading below all major moving averages, no signs of bottoming yet
- 🎯 Support test: Current price testing YTD lows around $35 - critical make-or-break level

However, there's a potential silver lining - the stock is now testing its IPO price range and trading at levels not seen since early 2024. If the company can deliver on its growth promises, the risk/reward at these levels could be attractive. The option buyer clearly thinks so.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

ONON Gamma Sr

Current Price: $35.07

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price magnets and barriers for near-term action:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $35 - STRONGEST IMMEDIATE SUPPORT with 8.38B total gamma exposure (current battleground!)
- $32.50 - Secondary support at 7.47B gamma (7.3% downside cushion)
- $31 - Deeper floor with 2.96B gamma (11.6% below current)
- $30 - Major psychological level at 1.54B gamma (14.5% below current)

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $35.50 - Immediate ceiling with 0.62B gamma (1.2% overhead)
- $36.50 - Secondary resistance at 0.34B gamma (4.1% above current)
- $37 - Near-term target with 1.50B gamma (5.5% rally needed)
- $37.50 - Major resistance at 4.60B gamma (6.9% above current) - THIS IS THE WALL
- $38 - Extended target at 0.41B gamma (8.4% rally)
- $40 - Option strike level with 7.22B gamma (14.1% rally needed) - matches the $1M call bet!

What this means for traders:
ONON is sitting RIGHT ON TOP of massive $35 support (8.38B gamma) - this is the LINE IN THE SAND. The gamma data shows market makers holding enormous put positions here, which means they'll be aggressive buyers if the stock dips below $35. However, there's a wall of call gamma resistance building at $37.50 (4.60B) that will create natural selling pressure.

The critical insight: The $40 strike where this trade is positioned shows 7.22B total gamma - one of the largest levels on the entire chain. This isn't random. The option buyer struck at a major gamma level where dealer hedging flows will amplify moves if price approaches. Smart positioning.

Net GEX Bias: Bearish (32.73B put gamma vs 18.94B call gamma) - Overall positioning remains defensive, with more protection purchased than upside speculation. This actually makes the $1M bullish call bet more contrarian and potentially more interesting.

Implied Move Analysis

ONON Implied Move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (Nov 14 - 7 days): ±$3.37 (±9.56%) → Range: $32.50 - $39.50
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (Nov 21 - 14 days): ±$3.84 (±10.89%) → Range: $32.00 - $40.26
  • 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 42 days): ±$4.76 (±13.5%) → Range: $31.08 - $41.68
  • 📅 March OPEX (Mar 20, 2026 - 133 days - THIS TRADE!): ±$17.13 (±48.6%) → Range: $19.26 - $48.39

Translation for regular folks:
Options traders are pricing in a 9.6% move ($3.37) by next week - that's massive volatility for a stock this size! The market expects continued choppiness through November and December with double-digit percentage swings.

The March 20, 2026 expiration (when this $1M trade expires) has an upper range of $48.39 - meaning the market thinks there's a realistic possibility ONON could trade as high as $48 by spring. The $40 strike on the call trade sits comfortably within this range, suggesting it's not an outrageous bet.

Key insight: The implied move shows the stock could realistically hit $40-42 by December (quarterly triple witch range), which would make these calls profitable EARLY. The buyer doesn't need to wait until March expiration - they could take profits in Q4 if positive catalysts materialize sooner.

🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q3 2024 Results (Announced November 12, 2024)

On reported mixed Q3 results that beat on revenue but missed on earnings[^2_1]:

The revenue beat and gross margin expansion are bullish, but the EPS miss explains some of the stock weakness. However, On raised full-year guidance to at least 32% constant currency growth[^10_1], showing management confidence.

🚀 Near-Term Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

Q4 2024 & Full Year 2024 Earnings - March 4, 2025 (Before Option Expiration!)

The BIGGEST catalyst for this trade happens March 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM ET[^14_1] - just 2 weeks before the options expire. This is THE moment of truth:

If the March 4th earnings call provides strong Q1 2025 guidance and reaffirms China expansion targets, this could be the catalyst that pushes the stock through $40. The option buyer positioned perfectly for this.

China Expansion - Accelerating Through 2026

The 100-store China expansion plan by 2026[^7_1] is perhaps the most underappreciated catalyst:

Each new store opening in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 provides a micro-catalyst for the stock. If management reports strong early results from the Chengdu flagship and announces additional tier-1 city openings, it validates the entire thesis.

LightSpray Technology Scaling

On's revolutionary LightSpray manufacturing technology[^4_1] debuted in July 2024 with the Cloudboom Strike LS, but scaling is the key:

If On announces LightSpray production expansion or new models using the technology in Q4/Q1, it could trigger a re-rating of the stock's innovation premium.

Product Launch Pipeline - Q4 2024 through Q1 2025

Multiple new products launching during the option timeframe:

Cloudboom Max (August 2025, $230):
- Marathon racing shoe for 4:00-4:30 hour finishers[^17_1]
- Targets mass-market runners vs elite-only super shoes
- Expands addressable market significantly

Cloudsurfer Max (July 2025, $180):
- Most cushioned Surfer series for long-distance comfort[^17_1]
- Builds on Cloudeclipse success

Cloudultra Pro (June 2025, $260):
- Premium trail running entry[^17_1]
- Competes with Hoka Speedgoat, Nike Wildhorse

Each successful launch incrementally adds to quarterly revenue and validates product development capabilities.

Celebrity & Luxury Partnerships Expanding

Zendaya Partnership Momentum:
- Cloudzone Moon and Cloudtilt Moon collaborations[^5_1]
- Targeting Gen-Z consumers (fastest growing demographic)
- Future creative campaigns scheduled for Q1 2025

Loewe Luxury Collaboration:
- Fifth season launching Spring 2025[^6_1]
- Rare co-branded logo elevates luxury positioning[^6_1]
- Spring/Summer 2025 collection across multiple models

These partnerships drive brand heat and premium pricing, especially important in soft retail environment.

📊 Upcoming Major Events

Q1 2025 Earnings - May 13, 2025 (After Option Expiration)

While this falls after the March 20th option expiration, Q1 2025 earnings[^16_1] will heavily influence the stock in the weeks leading up to March expiration:

  • 📊 Consensus EPS: $0.24 per share (-36.84% YoY)[^16_1] - concerns about investment drag
  • 🎯 Key Metrics: DTC penetration (target 40%+), China same-store sales, gross margin sustainability
  • ⚠️ Risk Factor: Year-over-year comps getting tougher as growth rate normalizes

If the company pre-announces strong Q1 trends in late February/early March, it could provide the final push to $40+.

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Profitability Pressure from Expansion

The Q3 EPS miss (CHF 0.09 vs CHF 0.15 estimate)[^2_2] signals that aggressive store expansion is pressuring near-term profits:

If Q4 or Q1 show continued EPS misses despite revenue growth, valuation multiple could compress further.

Competition Intensifying

The performance running market is getting crowded:

Analyst downgrades in 2025 (Raymond James, Jefferies, BWG)[^13_1] reflect concerns about competitive positioning.

Valuation Concerns

At current levels, ONON still trades at premium multiples:

  • 📊 P/S Ratio: ~5x sales (vs Nike 2.5x, Adidas 1.2x)
  • 💰 Growth Required: Needs to maintain 25-30% growth to justify valuation
  • ⚠️ Execution Risk: Limited margin for error at premium multiple

Any growth deceleration could trigger further multiple compression.

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios through March 20, 2026 expiration:

📈 Bull Case (35% probability)

Target: $42-$48

How we get there:
- 💪 March 4th earnings CRUSH with strong Q4 results and optimistic Q1 guidance
- 🇨🇳 China expansion exceeding expectations - 60+ stores opened by March, strong SSS growth
- 🚀 LightSpray scaling announcement - rollout to 3-4 additional models by spring
- 🎯 DTC penetration reaches 42%+ (vs 38.8% Q3), driving gross margin expansion to 61-62%
- 📈 Analyst upgrades following earnings as profitability concerns ease
- 🏆 Major product launch success (Cloudboom Max, Cloudsurfer Max) drives brand momentum
- 💚 Apparel business accelerates past CHF 150M annual run rate (51% growth continuing)

Key milestones needed:
- Q4 2024 revenue CHF 700M+ (vs ~CHF 680M consensus)
- Q1 2025 guidance CHF 600M+ showing no seasonal weakness
- Gross margin holding 60.5%+ despite expansion investments
- China store openings on track for 100 by year-end 2026

What happens to the $40 calls:
- Stock at $45 on Mar 20: Calls worth $5.00, profit = $1.94/share × 35,700 = $692K gain (63% ROI)
- Stock at $48 on Mar 20: Calls worth $8.00, profit = $4.94/share × 35,700 = $1.76M gain (161% ROI!)

Probability assessment: 35% because it requires strong execution on multiple fronts, but the pieces are in place. Q4 earnings beat + China momentum + product success could create perfect storm.

🎯 Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $36-$40 range (SLOW GRIND HIGHER)

Most likely scenario:
- ✅ March 4th earnings solid but not spectacular - meets consensus on revenue, slight EPS miss
- 📱 China expansion progressing steadily - 50-60 stores by March, but not blowing away expectations
- ⚖️ Product launches well-received but not game-changing - incremental revenue adds
- 🎢 Stock trades range-bound $35-38 for weeks, then rallies into earnings anticipation
- 💤 Reaches $38-40 by option expiration but doesn't break out meaningfully above
- 📊 Volatility compression as downtrend ends but new uptrend not established
- 🛡️ Gamma support at $35 and $37.50 creates trading range

This scenario gives the option buyer modest profits:
Stock at $38.50 on Mar 20: Calls worth $0 (out of money), loss = -$3.06/share × 35,700 = -$1.09M (100% loss)
Stock at $40.50 on Mar 20: Calls worth $0.50, loss = -$2.56/share × 35,700 = -$914K (84% loss)
Stock at $42 on Mar 20: Calls worth $2.00, loss = -$1.06/share × 35,700 = -$378K (35% loss)

Why 45% probability: Most realistic outcome given current setup. Fundamentals improving but not enough to trigger re-rating. Stock needs to break convincingly above $40 for calls to be profitable, which requires multiple catalysts aligning.

📉 Bear Case (20% probability)

Target: $28-$34 (RETEST LOWS)

What could go wrong:
- 😰 March 4th earnings disappoint - Q4 revenue miss or very weak Q1 guidance
- 🚨 China expansion hits speed bumps - store opening delays, weaker-than-expected traffic
- ⏰ LightSpray production issues or scaling delays create credibility gap
- 🇨🇳 Chinese consumer spending weakness accelerates, hitting Asia-Pacific growth
- 💸 Continued EPS misses trigger multiple downgrades and "growth at any cost" concerns
- 📊 Competitive pressure intensifies - Nike fights back, Hoka gains more share
- 💔 Product launches underperform - full-price sell-through weak, inventory builds
- 🔨 Break below $35 gamma support triggers technical cascade to $32.50, then $30

Critical support levels:
- 🛡️ $35: Must hold or momentum shifts decisively bearish
- 🛡️ $32.50: Secondary floor (7.47B gamma) - major breakdown level
- 🛡️ $30: Psychological level and 45% discount from YTD high

What happens to the calls:
- Stock at $32 on Mar 20: Calls expire worthless, loss = -$3.06/share × 35,700 = -$1.09M (100% loss)
- Stock at $28 on Mar 20: Calls expire worthless, loss = -$3.06/share × 35,700 = -$1.09M (100% loss)

Probability assessment: Only 20% because fundamentals remain solid (33% revenue growth, 60.6% gross margins, 84.5% Asia-Pacific growth). Would require multiple negative surprises or macro deterioration. The option buyer clearly sees this as lower probability but not impossible - which is why they're using options for leverage rather than buying stock outright.

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait for March Earnings Clarity

Play: Stay on sidelines until March 4th earnings validates/invalidates thesis

Why this works:
- ⏰ Earnings in 117 days provides THE catalyst that determines direction - why front-run?
- 📊 Stock in downtrend for 9 months - catching falling knives dangerous
- 💸 High volatility (50.1%) means better entry opportunities will present themselves
- 🎯 Can reassess after Q4 earnings when full-year 2024 results and Q1 guidance clarify picture
- 📉 If stock breaks below $35 support before earnings, wait for $32.50 or $30 retest
- ✅ Need to see DTC penetration progress, China SSS data, and LightSpray scaling timeline before committing

Action plan:
- 👀 Watch March 4th earnings for: Q4 revenue vs CHF 680M target, FY24 net income vs CHF 240M, Q1 guidance vs CHF 600M
- 🎯 Post-earnings, look for entry on dips to $36-37 with stop-loss below $35
- ✅ Only enter if: China expansion on track, gross margins 60%+, DTC penetration rising
- ⏰ Alternative: Wait until after Q1 2025 earnings (May 13) when business trajectory clearer

Risk level: Minimal (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

Expected outcome: Avoid potential additional downside if earnings disappoint. Get better risk/reward entry if story validates.

⚖️ Balanced: Shares at Support with Options Kicker

Play: Buy stock at $35 gamma support + small position in Apr 2026 $37.50 calls

Structure:
- 📊 Buy 100-200 shares of ONON at $35.00-35.50
- 🎯 Buy 2-5 Apr 2026 $37.50 calls (1 month after March earnings)

Why this works:
- 🛡️ Stock sitting on massive $35 gamma support (8.38B) - defined risk entry
- 📈 Shares provide core exposure with less time decay risk than options
- 🚀 April calls give extra leverage if March earnings catalyst works
- ⏰ April expiration allows 1 month buffer after March 4th earnings for dust to settle
- 💰 Breakeven on calls only $37.50 + premium (~$40.50) vs $40 for the large trade
- 🎢 Asymmetric: Risking $35-32 on shares ($3 downside to next support) for potential to $42-45 ($7-10 upside)

Position sizing:
- 💵 Shares: $3,500-7,000 (100-200 shares at $35)
- 📞 Calls: $800-1,500 (2-5 contracts at $3-4 each, adjust based on current pricing)
- 📊 Total capital: $4,300-8,500

Entry criteria:
- ✅ Wait for stock to touch $35.00-35.25 (don't chase rallies)
- ✅ Set stop-loss at $33.50 (below $32.50 gamma support)
- ✅ Target: $39-40 on shares (12-14% gain), $42+ on calls (100%+ gain if hit)

Exit strategy:
- 📈 Take 50% profit on shares at $38, let rest run
- 🎯 Take profit on calls at 100% gain or if stock hits $40
- ⚠️ Exit ALL if breaks below $33.50 (thesis invalidated)
- ⏰ Re-evaluate entire position after March 4th earnings

Risk level: Moderate (defined stop-loss on shares, limited options allocation) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: Copy The Trade (Smaller Scale!)

Play: Buy March 2026 $40 calls - EXACT same trade structure, scaled down

Structure: Buy March 20, 2026 $40 calls

Why this could work:
- 🐋 Piggybacking on $1M institutional bet - they did the homework
- 📊 Strike at major gamma level ($40 shows 7.22B gamma) - price magnet effect
- ⏰ Perfect timing for March 4th earnings catalyst + Q1 preview
- 💰 Leverage: Controls 100 shares per contract vs buying stock outright
- 🎯 Breakeven only $43.06 (current $35 + $3.06 premium + $40 strike upside)
- 📈 Implied move shows $48 upper range - target well within probability cone

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):
- ⏰ TIME DECAY KILLER: Theta burns daily as March approaches - premium erosion accelerates
- 💸 OUT OF MONEY: Stock needs 14% rally just to reach strike, then continue higher for profit
- 😱 TOTAL LOSS POSSIBLE: If stock stays below $40, you lose 100% of premium paid
- 📉 Current downtrend: Fighting 9 months of bearish momentum - trend is NOT your friend
- 🎢 Volatility risk: If IV drops from 50% to 35%, option value collapses even if stock rises modestly
- ⚠️ Stock at $39 on March 20th = call worth $0, you lose EVERYTHING

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Cost: ~$3.00-3.20 per contract ($300-320 per contract)
- 📈 Profit scenario: Stock at $45 = calls worth $5, gain $1.80-2.00 per contract (60% ROI)
- 🚀 Home run: Stock at $48 = calls worth $8, gain $4.80-5.00 per contract (160% ROI!)
- 📉 Loss scenario: Stock at $38 = calls worth $0, lose entire premium (100% loss)
- 💀 Total loss: Stock below $40 = expire worthless, -100%

Breakeven point:
- 🎯 Need stock at $43+ for profit ($40 strike + $3 premium)

CRITICAL WARNING - DO NOT attempt unless you:
- ✅ Can afford to lose ENTIRE premium (100% loss is realistic)
- ✅ Understand you're betting against 9-month downtrend
- ✅ Have conviction that March 4th earnings will be blockbuster
- ✅ Accept that even if stock hits $38-39, you still lose money
- ✅ Won't panic-sell during normal volatility (stock could touch $38, drop to $33, rally to $42)
- ⏰ Plan to actively manage - take profits at 50-100% gain, don't hold to expiration hoping for moon shot

Position sizing: Risk ONLY 1-3% of portfolio (this is pure speculation!)
- Conservative: 2-5 contracts ($600-1,600)
- Aggressive: 10-20 contracts ($3,000-6,400)
- NEVER more than 5% of portfolio

Risk level: EXTREME (can lose 100% of premium) | Skill level: Advanced only

Probability of profit: ~35-40% (requires significant rally in short timeframe)

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

  • 📉 Downtrend momentum: Stock down 36.6% YTD with no signs of bottoming - trying to catch falling knife is dangerous. Multiple failed rally attempts at $50, $45, $42 all rejected. Technical damage severe - trading below all moving averages. Would need powerful catalyst to reverse 9 months of bearish sentiment.

  • 💸 Profitability concerns post Q3 miss: The Q3 EPS miss (CHF 0.09 vs CHF 0.15 estimate) spooked growth investors. Despite 32% revenue growth, bottom-line isn't keeping pace. Store expansion costs front-loaded - opening 20-25 stores per year creates drag on EPS for 2-3 quarters before payback. If Q4 or Q1 show continued EPS misses, valuation multiple could compress from 5x sales to 3x sales (implying $28 stock price).

  • 🇨🇳 China execution risk with 100-store target: The 100-store China plan by 2026 is AGGRESSIVE. Need to go from 50 stores to 100+ in 12-18 months while maintaining 4-wall margins and brand prestige. Chinese consumer spending under pressure - retail sales growth slowing. Local competitors (Li-Ning, Anta) have home-field advantage and price 30-40% lower. Any store opening delays or weak SSS growth torpedoes thesis.

  • 🏃 Intense competition from Hoka and Brooks: Hoka's market share grew from 0.2% to 0.7% - that's 3.5x growth rate outpacing On's trajectory. Brooks maintains 15% runner preference, highest among specialty brands. New Balance targeting $10B revenue with heavy performance focus. Nike will eventually respond to share losses with aggressive counter-moves. On's 1.2% market share leaves them vulnerable to competitive squeeze from both above (Nike/Adidas) and below (Hoka/Brooks).

  • 💰 Premium valuation despite stock decline: Even after 36% YTD drop, ONON trades at ~5x sales vs Nike 2.5x and Adidas 1.2x. Requires sustained 25-30% growth to justify multiple. If growth decelerates to 15-20% range (still good!), stock could re-rate to 3x sales = $21 stock price. Limited margin of safety at current levels.

  • 🎯 Analyst downgrades signaling caution: Raymond James downgraded Strong Buy to Outperform, Jefferies downgraded Hold to Underperform, and BWG Global downgraded Positive to Mixed - all in 2025. These aren't random - sell-side analysts talking to institutional investors and hearing concerns about valuation, competition, and profitability trajectory. Consensus price target of $62 is 77% above current - either analysts are wildly optimistic or stock has serious rebound potential.

  • 📊 Gamma ceiling at $37.50 creates resistance: The 4.60B call gamma at $37.50 represents a significant wall. Market makers will systematically sell into rallies above $37 to hedge their exposure. Breaking through requires sustained buying pressure that current downtrend hasn't shown. This makes reaching $40+ meaningfully harder.

  • ⏰ Product launch execution risk: Multiple new launches (Cloudboom Max, Cloudsurfer Max, Cloudultra Pro) hitting market Q4-Q1. If any fail to gain traction, it raises questions about product development process. LightSpray scaling from one model to production fleet unproven - manufacturing complexity could create delays or quality issues.

  • 🎢 Extreme volatility (50.1%) creates whipsaw risk: ONON can move 5-8% on no news. Max drawdown of 44.85% shows how fast sentiment shifts. This isn't a stable blue-chip - daily price swings will test emotional discipline. Options buyers face rapid premium decay during consolidation periods.

  • 🌍 Currency exposure amplifies volatility: Reporting in CHF creates FX volatility - 33.2% constant currency growth vs 29.4% reported shows 380bps difference from currency. Strong USD headwind for international sales. Swiss Franc strength could pressure reported results even if underlying business performs.

  • 💔 Apparel business still tiny (4% of revenue): While growing 51%, apparel remains subscale. Target of 10% revenue mix requires years of execution. Footwear concentration creates single-category risk - if running trend cools, no diversification buffer.

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just bet $1 MILLION that ONON rallies 14% to $40+ by March 2026. This isn't random gambling - it's a calculated bet on mean reversion after a 36.6% YTD decline that may have been overdone.

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Sophisticated buyer sees the 44.85% drawdown from highs as an opportunity, not a warning
- 💰 Willing to pay $3.06/share for 133 days of exposure - that's conviction
- ⚖️ The timing (March 20 expiration) perfectly captures March 4th earnings catalyst
- 📊 Positioned at $40 strike where 7.22B gamma creates price magnet if momentum turns
- ⏰ Looking past near-term profitability concerns to 2026 China expansion and product pipeline payoff

This is NOT a "buy everything" signal - it's a "distressed growth story with binary catalysts" signal.

If you own ONON:
- ✅ Holding makes sense at $35 support level - risk/reward improved significantly from $55 highs
- 📊 Set MENTAL STOP at $32.50 (major gamma support) to protect against breakdown
- ⏰ March 4th earnings is THE catalyst - be prepared for 10-15% move either direction
- 🎯 Consider adding small position if dips to $33-34 (better entry than chasing rallies)
- 🛡️ If nervous, trim 25-30% and buy April $37.50 calls to maintain upside exposure with less capital at risk

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ⏰ March 4, 2025 after market close is the decision point - DO NOT enter large position before earnings!
- 🎯 Post-earnings dip to $32-34 would be EXCELLENT entry (genuine support levels with gamma backing)
- 📈 Looking for confirmation: Q4 revenue CHF 700M+, gross margins 60%+, Q1 guidance CHF 600M+, China store count on track
- 🚀 Longer-term (6-12 months), 100-store China rollout and LightSpray scaling are legitimate catalysts for $45-50
- ⚠️ Current 5x P/S valuation still premium - needs execution to justify, one stumble and it's $28-30

If you're bearish:
- 🎯 Waiting for break below $35 makes sense - that's the gamma support LINE IN THE SAND
- 📊 Next support at $32.50 (7.47B gamma), then $30 psychological
- ⚠️ Post-earnings put spreads could work if stock rallies into event (IV crush helps bearish plays)
- 📉 Watch for failed rally at $37.50 resistance (4.60B call gamma wall)
- ⏰ Shorting now risky - already down 36% YTD, low-hanging fruit picked

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 November 14 (Weekly expiration) - First test of $35 support, ±9.56% implied move
- 📅 November 21 (Monthly OPEX) - ±10.89% implied move window closes
- 📅 December 19 (Quarterly triple witch) - ±13.5% implied move, range $31-$42
- 📅 March 4, 2025 (Tuesday) after market close - Q4 & FY24 earnings (THE CATALYST!)
- 📅 March 20, 2026 - Option expiration, $1M call trade settles
- 📅 May 13, 2025 - Q1 2025 earnings (post-option expiration but influences late March)

Final verdict: ONON's long-term growth story remains intact - 33% revenue growth, 84.5% Asia-Pacific expansion, 60.6% gross margins, revolutionary technology, and 100-store China plan are all real. BUT, the stock has been in a brutal downtrend and profitability concerns are legitimate. The $1M call bet signals an institutional player thinks the pendulum has swung too far negative.

At $35 with $8.38B gamma support, the risk/reward is more balanced than it was at $55+. For patient investors willing to hold through March earnings volatility, this could be a reasonable entry. For traders, wait for the catalyst and let the stock prove itself.

The Swiss running shoe revolution isn't dead - it might just be on sale. But don't confuse "on sale" with "safe". Volatility will remain extreme. 🏃‍♂️

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 193x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent ONON history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. The stock has declined 36.6% YTD and remains in a technical downtrend - catching falling knives can result in permanent capital loss. March earnings create binary event risk with potential for 10-15% gaps either direction.

About On Holding AG: On Holding AG is a premium Swiss athletic footwear and apparel company with a market cap of $11.6 billion, specializing in innovative running shoes featuring CloudTec cushioning technology and revolutionary LightSpray manufacturing. The company distributes through a hybrid model of direct-to-consumer retail (38.8% of sales) and selective wholesale partnerships, with aggressive expansion plans targeting 100+ stores in China by 2026.

References

[^2_1]: StockTitan, "On Holding Surges 32% to Record Q3 Sales, Raises 2024 Outlook on Strong DTC Growth", November 12, 2024, https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ONON/on-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-and-nine-month-period-ended-43wvz3jpzpiv.html

[^2_2]: Investing.com, "On Holding shares volatile as company lifts annual outlook, misses Q3 earnings", November 2024, https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/on-holding-shares-volatile-as-company-lifts-annual-outlook-misses-q3-earnings-3698132

[^3_1]: Jing Daily, "Asia-Pacific leads On Running revenue growth", November 13, 2024, https://jingdaily.com/intels/2024-11/13/asia-pacific-leads-on-running-revenue-growth

[^4_1]: Dezeen, "On unveils sprayable trainer made with textile 'there's not even a word for'", July 15, 2024, https://www.dezeen.com/2024/07/15/on-sprayable-trainer-lightspray-cloudboom-strike-ls/

[^5_1]: WWD, "Zendaya Joins On Running as Brand Partner: Details, Photos", June 2024, https://wwd.com/eye/people/zendaya-on-running-shoe-brand-partner-1236414606/

[^6_1]: The Hollywood Reporter, "Loewe x On Summer 2025: Cloudtilt, Cloudventure, Loewe On Cloud Shoes", 2025, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/shopping/loewe-on-cloud-summer-2025-running-shoes-clothing-release-date-pricing-where-to-buy-1236217326/

[^7_1]: Jing Daily, "On expands in China with Chengdu flagship, 100-store plan", 2024, https://jingdaily.com/posts/on-expands-china-chengdu-flagship-100-store-plan

[^10_1]: On Holding Investor Relations, "On Reports Results for the Third Quarter and Nine-Month Period Ended September 30, 2024", November 12, 2024, https://investors.on-running.com/financials-and-filings/financial-releases/news-details/2024/On-Reports-Results-for-the-Third-Quarter-and-Nine-Month-Period-Ended-September-30-2024/default.aspx

[^11_1]: S-GE, "On developing running shoes with innovative LightSpray technology", 2024, https://www.s-ge.com/en/article/news/20243-textile-lightspray-technology

[^12_1]: Runner's World UK, "On reveals 'LightSpray' technology on Cloudboom Strike LS", July 2024, https://www.runnersworld.com/uk/gear/shoes/a61632786/on-cloudboom-strike-lightspray/

[^13_1]: Benzinga, "On Holding AG (ONON) Analyst Ratings and Price Targets", 2024, https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ONON/analyst-ratings

[^14_1]: Zacks, "On Holding (ONON) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates", March 4, 2025, https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2424960/on-holding-onon-q4-earnings-and-revenues-surpass-estimates

[^15_1]: On Holding Press Release, "On Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results, and the Filing of its Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2024", March 2025, https://press.on-running.com/on-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-and-the-filing-of-its-annual-report-on-form-20-f-for-2024

[^16_1]: Zacks, "What date does On Holding's (ONON) report Earnings", 2025, https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/ONON/earnings-calendar

[^17_1]: The Hollywood Reporter, "On Cloud Shoes 2025 Releases: On Cloud 6, Loewe On Cloud, Cloudmonster", 2025, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/shopping/best-on-cloud-2025-shoe-releases-1236233314/

[^18_1]: Retail Dive, "On plans 100 more stores in the coming years", 2024, https://www.retaildive.com/news/on-running-100-stores-fourth-quarter/710235/

[^22_1]: Maximize Market Research, "Running Shoes Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast Analysis (2025-2032)", 2025, https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/running-shoes-market/193998/

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