NBIS Unusual Options: $8.6M AI Infrastructure Play | Score: 9.2/10
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🚀 NBIS Explodes on $8.6M Institutional Options Bets!
📅 August 20, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected | Unusualness Score: 9.2/10
🎯 The Quick Take
Holy moly! Someone just placed $8.6 MILLION in coordinated options trades on Nebius Group (NBIS) - the AI infrastructure play that's already up 121% year-to-date! This isn't your neighbor Bob trading on Robinhood - these are institutional-sized bets positioning for significant movement around the company's massive data center expansion and path to profitability. With the stock at $67.46, big money is betting on both explosive upside potential AND collecting massive premiums through strategic put sales.
📈 YTD Performance & Chart Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
- Current Price: $67.46
- YTD Return: +121.11% 🔥
- 52-Week Range: ~$20 - $75
- Key Support: $59 (where institutional puts were sold)
- Key Resistance: $71-75 (previous highs)
The chart shows NBIS underwent a dramatic transformation in 2025:
- January-March: Consolidation phase around $30-40
- April-May: First breakout to $50s
- June-July: Explosive move from $40s to $70s
- August: Testing new highs with institutional accumulation
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 Today's Tape Analysis (All Trades at 13:04:48)
| Strike | Type | Buy/Sell | Side | Expiration | Premium | Volume | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 | CALL | BUY | Above Ask | 2025-08-22 | $634K | 14K | 🚀 Aggressive Bull - Betting on breakout above ATH |
| $69 | CALL | BUY | Above Ask | 2025-08-29 | $3.0M | 14K | 🚀 Mega Bull - Largest position, 9 days to expiry |
| $67 | PUT | SELL | Mid | 2025-08-22 | $3.6M | 14K | 💰 Premium Collection - ATM puts, bullish signal |
| $59 | PUT | SELL | Below Bid | 2025-08-29 | $1.4M | 14K | 🛡️ Support Level - Confident in $59 floor |
Total Premium: $8.634 Million
Total Contracts: 56,000 (14K each position)
Spot Price at Trade: $65.66
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This is textbook "smart money positioning" ahead of major catalysts! Here's the translation:
-
The $3M Call Buy at $69: Someone's betting BIG that NBIS breaks above $70 within 9 days. That's not speculation - that's conviction with serious capital behind it.
-
The $3.6M Put Sale at $67: This trader is so confident NBIS stays above $67 that they're willing to buy 14,000 shares at that price if wrong. Translation: They think $67 is a gift.
-
The Coordinated Timing: All four trades hit at exactly 13:04:48 - this is ONE institutional desk executing a complex strategy, not random retail activity.
-
The Strike Selection: Notice the strikes? $59 (support), $67 (near ATM), $69 (slight OTM), $71 (resistance). This trader has done their homework on key levels.
🎪 Upcoming Catalysts
🏗️ Near-Term Catalysts (Next 30 Days)
-
New Jersey Data Center Launch (Late July/Early August)
- 300 MW facility going live
- Major capacity expansion enabling enterprise contracts
- Could trigger re-rating similar to CoreWeave -
Q3 2025 Earnings (Expected mid-September)
- Tracking toward $900M-$1.1B ARR guidance
- June ARR already at $430M (+72.7% QoQ)
- Path to positive EBITDA in H2 2025
🚀 Medium-Term Catalysts (3-6 Months)
-
1 GW Power Capacity Target
- Targeting 1 GW by 2026
- 220 MW connected by end of 2025 (raised from 100 MW)
- Two large U.S. greenfield projects underway -
Avride Funding Round
- 100% owned autonomous vehicle subsidiary
- Potential $5B+ valuation based on sector comps
- Partnership with Uber Eats, Grubhub, Hyundai -
NVIDIA Blackwell Partnership
- Strategic alliance with early Blackwell GPU access
- UK launch with Blackwell Ultra infrastructure
- Major competitive advantage vs other AI cloud providers
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
🚀 Bull Case: $90 (35% probability)
- New Jersey facility attracts OpenAI/Google-scale contracts
- ARR hits upper guidance of $1.1B
- Avride valued at $5B+ in funding round
- Multiple expansion to match CoreWeave valuation
- BWS Financial's $90 target
😐 Base Case: $75 (45% probability)
- Steady execution on capacity expansion
- ARR reaches $950M (midpoint of guidance)
- Achieves group EBITDA positive in Q4
- Maintains current P/S multiple
- Consensus analyst target of $67.50
😰 Bear Case: $50 (20% probability)
- Execution delays on data center buildout
- Competition from hyperscalers intensifies
- Cash burn exceeds $2B CapEx guidance
- Market rotation out of AI infrastructure plays
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "The Premium Collector"
Sell Cash-Secured Puts
- Strike: $60 (September 20 expiry)
- Premium: ~$2.50 per contract
- Return: 4.2% in 30 days (50% annualized)
- Why it works: Collect premium with 11% downside cushion
⚖️ Balanced: "The Calendar Spread"
Buy October $70 Calls / Sell August $71 Calls
- Net Cost: ~$2.00 per spread
- Max Profit: If NBIS at $71 on August expiry
- Why it works: Profit from near-term resistance at $71 while maintaining upside exposure
🚀 Aggressive: "Follow the Whale"
Buy September $75 Calls
- Cost: ~$1.50 per contract
- Breakeven: $76.50
- Target: $85+ if New Jersey news hits
- Why it works: Leverage the upcoming catalyst with defined risk
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
-
Cash Burn Monster: $2B CapEx planned for 2025 - that's serious capital deployment risk
-
Valuation Stretched: Trading at 64x trailing P/E - any execution hiccup = major correction
-
Competition Heating Up: AWS, Azure, and CoreWeave aren't sitting still in the AI infrastructure race
-
Short Interest Elevated: 7.02% of float shorted - potential for squeeze but also skepticism
-
Capacity Constraints: Current limitation preventing large enterprise deals - expansion MUST execute flawlessly
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: This $8.6M options flow is positioning for NBIS's transformation from "promising AI infrastructure play" to "legitimate hyperscaler competitor." The smart money is betting that the New Jersey data center launch and path to profitability will trigger a re-rating above $75.
If you own it: Hold tight and consider selling covered calls at $75+ to generate income
If you're watching: The $59-62 zone (where institutions sold puts) looks like strong support for entry
If you're bearish: Wait for confirmation of execution issues before shorting - this has squeeze potential
Mark your calendar: Watch for New Jersey facility updates (any day now) and Q3 earnings (mid-September)
The fact that institutions are comfortable selling $67 puts while buying $69-71 calls tells you everything - they expect near-term consolidation followed by a breakout. With 121% YTD gains already in the bank, NBIS is playing with house money, but the real game starts when that 300 MW facility lights up.
Remember: Options are risky and can result in 100% loss. This unusual activity is interesting but not investment advice. Always size positions appropriately!
📚 References & Source Links
Company & Financial Data
- Nebius Q2 2025 Results & Raised Guidance
- Q4 2024 Financial Results
- Stock Analysis - NBIS Fundamentals
- Path to Positive EBITDA
Expansion & Infrastructure
- 1 GW Capacity Target by 2026
- UK Launch with NVIDIA Blackwell
- Key Catalysts Analysis - MVC Investing
- Q2 2025 Earnings Deep Dive
