🚀 NBIS: AI Infrastructure Whale Just Dropped $3.4 MILLION on This Under-the-Radar Play!

📅 September 4, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just unloaded $3.4 MILLION into NBIS options this morning in a complex multi-leg strategy - that's a 8.5/10 EXTREME unusual score, happening 731x larger than average for this ticker! 🐋 This AI infrastructure play is up 114% YTD and someone with serious conviction is positioning for MORE upside with September expiration just days away! With NVIDIA Blackwell partnership launching and massive data center expansion underway, this looks like smart money betting on an AI infrastructure moonshot! 🚀

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🏢 Company Overview

Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) is a Netherlands-based AI infrastructure powerhouse that's flying under most retail radars.

The Basics:
- 💰 Market Cap: $15.7 Billion
- 🏭 Business: European provider of infrastructure and services to AI builders globally
- 🌍 What They Do: Full-stack AI cloud platform competing with hyperscalers at 20-25% lower costs
- 📊 Current Price: $65.26
- 📈 YTD Performance: +114% (Started at $30.44!)

Translation: Think of them as the "AWS for AI" but cheaper, faster, and with NVIDIA's blessing!

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Check out this massive institutional positioning that hit at 09:55 AM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Expiration	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price	Option Symbol
09:55:13	NBIS	BUY	CALL	2025-09-05	$71	$202K	13K	24K	13,481	$64.64	$0.15	NBIS20250905C71
09:55:13	NBIS	SELL	PUT	2025-09-05	$61	$337K	13K	23K	13,481	$64.64	$0.25	NBIS20250905P61
09:55:13	NBIS	SELL	PUT	2025-09-12	$58	$836K	13K	294	13,481	$64.64	$0.62	NBIS20250912P58
09:55:13	NBIS	BUY	CALL	2025-09-12	$68	$2M	13K	374	13,481	$64.64	$1.49	NBIS20250912C68

Total Premium Volume: $3.375 Million! 💸

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This scored an 8.5/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's "once in a year" territory! 🔥

Let me break down this institutional chess move:

The September 5th Play (EXPIRES TOMORROW!):
- Selling $61 puts = Collecting premium, bullish AF
- Buying $71 calls = Lottery tickets for immediate upside
- Net position: Bullish with defined risk

The September 12th Play (Next Week):
- Selling $58 puts = Even more premium collection at lower strikes
- Buying $68 calls for $2 MILLION = The real conviction play!
- Breakeven on calls: $69.49

The Master Strategy:
- Total put premium collected: $1.173M
- Total call premium spent: $2.202M
- Net debit: $1.029M
- Unusualness: 731x larger than average NBIS option trade!

Translation: This whale is SO bullish they're willing to be assigned shares at $58-61 (below current price) while betting $2M that NBIS rockets past $68 by next week! That's not speculation - that's CONVICTION! 💪

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at the YTD performance, NBIS has been on an absolute tear:

Key Metrics:
- 🚀 YTD Return: +113.90%
- 📊 Current Price: $65.26
- 📈 Start of Year: $30.44
- 🎢 Trading Range: $20-$75 (wild swings!)
- 📊 Average Volume: 12.7M shares daily (liquid!)

Technical Levels:
- 🎯 Current: $65.26
- 🚀 Near Call Strike: $68 (4.2% upside)
- 🌙 Far Call Strike: $71 (8.8% upside)
- 🛡️ Put Support: $58-61 (premium cushion zone)
- 💎 Recent High: $75 (room to run!)

Translation: After consolidating from $75 highs, NBIS looks coiled for another leg up! This whale is positioning RIGHT at the breakout zone! 📈

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events 🔥

NVIDIA Blackwell Partnership - Q4 2025
- First European provider of NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 instances
- 72 GPUs per instance (absolute monsters!)
- Strategic partnership with NVIDIA (who also owns equity!)

Massive Data Center Expansion - 2025-2026
- New Jersey: 300 MW facility launching Summer 2025
- UK: 54-100 MW facility Q4 2025
- Target: 1 GW+ capacity by 2026 (10x expansion!)

Q3 2025 Earnings - Expected November
- Raised 2025 guidance to $900M-$1.1B ARR
- Q2 revenue up 625% YoY to $105.1M
- Path to profitability by H2 2025

Avride Funding Round - Coming Soon
- Autonomous vehicle subsidiary
- Partners include Uber, Grubhub, Rakuten
- External valuation benchmark incoming

Already Happened Events ✅

Toloka Funding - $72M from Jeff Bezos
- Bezos Expeditions led the round in May 2025
- AI data labeling platform serving Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic
- Major validation from the richest man on Earth!

ClickHouse Valuation - $6.35 Billion
- NBIS owns 28% stake worth ~$1.68 billion
- Database used by Tesla, OpenAI, Meta
- IPO potential in coming years

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive option flow and upcoming catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $80-85 by year-end
- Blackwell launch drives massive demand
- Data center expansion on track
- Q3 earnings blow out expectations
- Those $71 calls print HARD!

⚖️ Base Case (50% chance)

Target: $68-75
- Steady execution on growth plan
- Gradual revenue ramp to $1B ARR
- Market recognizes AI infrastructure value
- Stock grinds toward upper call strikes

😰 Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $55-60
- Execution delays on expansion
- Competition from hyperscalers intensifies
- Market rotation out of AI plays
- Still above put assignment levels!

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Premium Collector"

• Strategy: Sell $55 puts, 30 days out
• Premium: ~$1.50-2.00 per contract
• Why it works: 15% downside cushion, collect premium on volatility
• Risk: Assignment if NBIS drops below $55

⚖️ Balanced Play: "Follow the Whale"

• Strategy: Buy $65/$70 call spread for October
• Cost: ~$2.00 per spread
• Max profit: $3.00 per spread (150% return)
• Why it works: Limited risk, solid reward if momentum continues

🚀 Aggressive Play: "YOLO Like the Whale"

• Strategy: Buy $70 calls for September 20th
• Cost: ~$1.50-2.00 per contract
• Why it works: Same thesis as our whale, smaller position size
• Risk: Total loss if NBIS doesn't hit $72

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Execution Risk: Scaling from $117M to $1B+ revenue is MASSIVE
• Competition: CoreWeave and hyperscalers aren't sleeping
• Capital Intensive: Data centers eat cash like crazy
• Valuation: Up 114% YTD - lots of good news priced in
• Short-term Expiries: These options expire FAST (Sept 5 & 12!)

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made an EXTREME bet on NBIS - $3.4 million with an 8.5/10 unusual score that's 731x larger than average! This isn't day trading noise - this is institutional positioning ahead of major catalysts. 🐋

Here's your action plan:

If you own NBIS:
- Hold through the September expiration dates
- Watch the $68 and $71 levels closely
- Consider taking some profits above $70

If you're watching:
- Any dip toward $60-62 is a gift (put support zone)
- September 12th expiry could create volatility
- Blackwell launch is the big catalyst ahead

If you're bearish:
- You're fighting a $3.4 million whale
- Wait for clear breakdown below $58
- Put sellers are providing strong support

Mark your calendar: September 5th (tomorrow!), September 12th (next week), and Q4 Blackwell launch are the KEY dates to watch! 🎢

Remember: When someone drops $2 MILLION on calls expiring in 8 days while up 114% YTD, they're either seeing something massive coming or about to learn an expensive lesson. Given NBIS's AI infrastructure positioning and NVIDIA partnership, I'm leaning toward the former! 💡

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⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This extreme unusual activity is rare and not typical. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader showing you where the smart money is flowing!