💼 Monday.com (MNDY) - $3.2M Bullish Call Play Before Earnings!

📅 October 13, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $3.2M on Monday.com calls expiring January 16, 2026! This bullish bet at the $210 strike gives the buyer 95 days to capitalize on earnings momentum and the company's massive $870M buyback program. With MNDY trading at $183.65, this trader needs a 14%+ rally to break even - but they're clearly betting on November earnings and AI monetization catalysts to deliver!

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📊 Company Overview

Monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) is a work management and execution platform that's evolved from project management into a comprehensive AI-powered SaaS ecosystem:

• Market Cap: $9.54 billion
• Industry: Software & IT Services (Work Management Platforms)
• Employees: 2,508
• Primary Business: SaaS-based work management platform with per-seat pricing model serving 245,000+ customers
• Key Products: Monday WorkOS, Monday CRM, Monday Dev, Monday Service, and new AI-powered agents

The company generates revenue through subscription tiers across multiple products, with strong enterprise momentum and expanding AI capabilities.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

The Tape (October 13, 2025 @ 13:53:58):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
13:53:58	MNDY	ASK	BUY	CALL	2026-01-16	$3.2M	$210	2K	173	2,000	$183.65	$16.10

Trade Breakdown:
- Premium Paid: $16.10 per contract = $3.22M total ($16.10 × 2,000 contracts × 100 shares)
- Breakeven: $226.10 by January expiration (23.1% rally needed)
- Days to Expiration: 95 days
- Implied Move: Betting on $42.45+ upside from current levels

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a straightforward bullish call purchase - someone's betting big on MNDY moving higher! The trader:

• Paid $3.2M at the ask price (aggressive entry showing urgency)
• Selected January 2026 expiration to capture Q3 earnings (November 10) and holiday momentum
• Chose $210 strike that's 14.3% out-of-the-money but aligns with key gamma resistance
• Maximum loss is the $3.2M premium paid
• Unlimited upside potential if MNDY rallies on earnings and AI catalysts

Unusual Score: Normal activity (0.4x average size) - This is a solid institutional-sized position but not extreme. The volume of 2,000 contracts represents typical institutional positioning ahead of earnings, occurring roughly every 0.01 days in MNDY options flow.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

Monday.com has had a brutal 2025 with -20.1% YTD losses, but the chart tells a nuanced story. After peaking above $310 in June-July, MNDY crashed hard in August following Google algorithm changes that disrupted customer acquisition, dropping from $310 to current levels around $185.

Key observations:
- Max drawdown: -47.71% from peak (painful for bulls)
- High volatility: 69.6% signals massive moves expected
- Recent stabilization: Found support in the $175-190 range after the August selloff
- Volume spike: Massive volume in August during the crash, now normalizing
- 52-week range: $175 (recent low) to $310 (mid-year high)

The stock is currently trading near YTD lows, which could represent either a value opportunity or continued deterioration depending on upcoming earnings.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $184.76

The gamma chart reveals critical levels that frame this bullish trade:

Call Gamma Resistance (Orange bars above current price):
- $185-190 zone: Immediate resistance with moderate call gamma - first hurdle
- $200 wall: Significant call gamma concentration requiring momentum to break
- $210 target: Heavy call gamma at the strike where this trade was placed - smart money chose this level for a reason!
- $220 ceiling: Ultimate resistance if rally extends beyond earnings

Put Gamma Support (Blue bars below current price):
- $180 floor: Immediate support with balanced put/call gamma
- $175 strong support: Heavy put gamma providing downside protection
- $170 backup floor: Additional put gamma if selloff accelerates

Market Maker Dynamics:
The gamma setup shows MNDY is in a critical zone. With current price at $184.76 and the strongest resistance at $185, we're sitting right at a key inflection point. The heavy call gamma at $190 and $210 means market makers will need to buy stock as price rises (positive gamma), potentially accelerating moves higher. However, the $200-210 zone represents the biggest resistance wall.

Net GEX Bias: Bearish (-0.36B net put gamma vs call gamma) - Overall options positioning still leans defensive, which makes this bullish $210 call buy a contrarian bet.

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 10, 2025 📊
- Wall Street expects EPS of $0.57-0.88 (TipRanks)
- Revenue guidance: $311-313M for Q3 (27% growth expected) (MarketBeat)
- Key focus: Enterprise customer growth metrics - 46% YoY growth in $100K+ customers last quarter
- Critical metric: Net dollar retention rates (111% overall, 117% for enterprise)
- Wildcard: AI monetization update - over 46 million AI actions completed in Q2

$870 Million Share Buyback Program 💰
- Announced September 15, 2025 - represents 9.1% of current market cap
- Signals strong management confidence despite recent selloff
- Could provide price support and reduce float
- Timeline: Active through 2026 (GuruFocus)

AI Product Monetization Launch 🤖
- Monday Agents: AI specialists that execute tasks end-to-end launched recently
- Monday Magic: AI-powered workflow generator gaining adoption
- Monday Sidekick: Context-aware digital assistant
- 150%+ quarter-over-quarter growth in AI feature adoption (Stock Titan)
- Monetization impact expected in Q4 2025 and beyond

2027 Revenue Target: $1.8 Billion 🎯
- Ambitious target announced at Investor Day (47% CAGR required)
- Requires successful AI monetization and enterprise expansion
- Market watching execution closely

Recently Completed

Monday CRM Reaches $100M ARR Milestone 📈
- Hit $100M annual recurring revenue in Q2 2025
- On track toward $300M ARR target
- Fastest product to $100M in company history

Monday Service Product Launch
- Reached $7M ARR in first year
- Fourth product in portfolio demonstrating platform expansion
- Cross-sell opportunity: only 6% of customers use multiple products

Google Algorithm Change Impact ⚠️
- Algorithm changes disrupted organic traffic and lead generation
- Caused 30% stock crash in August
- Management adapting go-to-market strategy
- SMB segment affected; enterprise segment still strong

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, technical setup, and upcoming catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $210-230

Path to profit:
- Q3 earnings exceed expectations with strong enterprise growth
- AI monetization shows meaningful revenue contribution
- Share buyback program provides support and removes sellers
- Net dollar retention improves from 111% toward 115%+
- Technical breakout above $190 gamma resistance triggers momentum

This trade's sweet spot: The $210 strike becomes profitable above $226.10, requiring a 22.8% rally from current levels. Bull case targets perfectly align with this breakeven.

Catalyst timing: November 10 earnings + buyback support + AI momentum could deliver this move by January expiration.

😐 Base Case (40% chance)

Target: $175-200 range

Likely scenario:
- Mixed earnings results - revenue growth solid but margins pressured
- Google algorithm impact continues to weigh on SMB segment
- Enterprise growth remains strong but not accelerating
- Stock consolidates in current range as market digests buyback news
- Volatility remains elevated heading into 2026

This trade's outcome: Gradual premium decay as expiration approaches. Needs breakout above $200 to avoid losses. Time decay becomes significant after 60 days.

😰 Bear Case (25% chance)

Target: $150-175

Downside risks:
- Earnings disappointment on margin compression or slowing growth
- Google algorithm changes have lasting impact on customer acquisition costs
- Competition intensifies in enterprise work management space
- Broader SaaS multiple compression
- Execution risk on ambitious $1.8B revenue target

This trade's pain: Full $3.2M loss if stock remains below $210 at expiration. Maximum downside capped but painful.

Risk factor: Put gamma support at $180 and $175 could slow decline, but technical breakdown below $175 would be severe.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait and See

Play: Let this play out and enter on confirmation

Watch for MNDY to break above $190 resistance post-earnings before entering.

Why this works: Earnings volatility is high (69.6% IV), so waiting for direction reduces risk. If earnings are positive, buying calls after initial move could still catch multi-week rally.

Alternative: Sell $180 puts (November expiration) to collect premium with gamma support below.

⚖️ Balanced: Follow the Flow with Protection

Play: Bull call spread for earnings

Buy $190 calls, sell $210 calls (November 21 expiration)

Risk: $800-1,000 per spread maximum loss
Reward: $1,000+ profit if moves to $210
Breakeven: ~$195-198

Why this works: Captures earnings move with defined risk. Selling the $210 strike (where today's flow went) reduces cost and aligns with gamma resistance. Expires after earnings to capture move.

🚀 Aggressive: Go Big on the Comeback

Play: Buy January $200 calls or $210 calls

Follow this exact trade or buy slightly closer to the money at $200 strike.

Risk: Premium paid (likely $18-20 per contract for $200s)
Reward: Unlimited upside if MNDY rallies 20%+ on earnings and AI momentum

Why this works: 95 days gives time for earnings catalyst + buyback support + AI monetization story to play out. MNDY historically volatile (69.6% IV) - if this breaks right, moves could be explosive.

Position sizing: Risk only 1-2% of portfolio - this is a high-conviction but binary bet.

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Execution Risk on AI Monetization 🤖
- Over 46 million AI actions completed but revenue impact still unclear
- Market wants to see actual dollars from AI features, not just adoption metrics
- Competitors like Asana, Smartsheet also launching AI - differentiation critical

Google Algorithm Headwinds 🔍
- SMB segment facing headwinds from search optimization challenges
- Customer acquisition costs rising in lower-tier segments
- Recovery timeline uncertain - could persist into 2026

Margin Pressure from Investments 💸
- 30% headcount growth planned for FY2025 pressuring near-term margins
- Heavy R&D spend on AI could delay profitability expansion
- Non-GAAP operating margin only 15% in Q2 - investors want improvement

Valuation Concerns 💰
- High P/E over 200x despite growth deceleration
- Trading at premium to SaaS peers despite challenges
- Further multiple compression risk if growth disappoints

Competitive Dynamics ⚔️
- Intense competition in work management space (Asana, Smartsheet, Microsoft, Atlassian)
- Enterprise wins require displacing entrenched solutions
- Price pressure in competitive deals

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🏁 The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $3.2M Monday.com call buy is a bet on the comeback story. After a brutal 35% decline in 90 days, someone thinks the worst is over and earnings will surprise to the upside.

Why this could work:
- Stock down 47.7% from highs - bad news priced in
- $870M buyback program provides massive support (9%+ of market cap)
- Enterprise segment crushing it with 46% growth in $100K+ customers
- AI monetization story just starting to unfold
- Gamma setup shows clear resistance at $210 but path is defined

Why this could fail:
- Google algorithm changes prove more persistent than expected
- Earnings disappoint on margin compression
- AI revenue contribution underwhelms market expectations
- Broader market correction hits high-multiple SaaS names

If you own MNDY: This institutional bet ahead of earnings suggests smart money sees value here. Consider holding through earnings or adding on dips to $180 gamma support.

If you're watching: November 10 earnings is the make-or-break catalyst. Options are expensive (69.6% IV), so you're paying up for the move. Consider waiting for post-earnings clarity.

If you're bearish: The $870M buyback program and gamma support at $180/$175 make aggressive downside bets risky. If shorting, use tight stops.

Mark your calendar:
- November 10: Q3 earnings (the main event!)
- January 16: Option expiration (95 days of theta decay)

This trade needs MNDY to rally 23% to break even - it's not a small ask, but the buyback, AI story, and enterprise momentum could deliver if earnings surprise. Position accordingly!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Options can expire worthless.

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About Monday.com: Monday.com is a work management platform with a $9.54 billion market cap serving 245,000+ customers. The company generates revenue through SaaS subscriptions across multiple products including WorkOS, CRM, Dev, and Service, with expanding AI capabilities and strong enterprise momentum.