MAR Massive $7.6M Call Sale - Smart Money Exits at All-Time Highs!

🏨 MAR Massive $7.6M Call Sale - Smart Money Exits at All-Time Highs! 💰

📅 November 26, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dumped $7.6 MILLION worth of MAR call options this morning at 10:03:10! This massive sale moved 779 contracts of February 20th $210 strike calls - collecting a huge premium just as Marriott trades at all-time highs of $305. With the stock up +10.9% YTD and sitting right at peak levels, smart money is cashing out their bullish bets. Translation: Institutional players are taking profits off the table after a strong run to record highs!

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📊 Company Overview

Marriott International (MAR) is the world's largest hotel company, operating a global hospitality empire:
- Market Cap: $81.6 Billion (hospitality industry giant)
- Industry: Hotels & Motels
- Current Price: $305.21 (near all-time high of $307.52)
- Primary Business: Operates ~1.8 million rooms across 30 brands globally including Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, W Hotels, JW Marriott, Courtyard, and Residence Inn. Revenue comes primarily from management fees, franchise fees, and incentive fees rather than direct operations (98% of rooms managed/franchised).

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 26, 2025 @ 10:03:10):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:03:10	MAR	ASK	SELL	CALL $210	2026-02-20	$7.6M	$210	779	2	779	$305.21	$97.30

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a massive profit-taking trade on deep in-the-money calls! Here's what went down:

• 💸 Huge premium collected: $7.6M ($97.30 per contract × 779 contracts)
• 🎯 Deep ITM strike: $210 is $95 below current price ($305) - these calls are MASSIVELY in-the-money
• ⏰ Strategic timing: 86 days to expiration (February 20th) - cashing out before year-end with max profit
• 📊 Size matters: 779 contracts represents 77,900 shares worth ~$23.8M
• 🏦 Institutional exit: This is sophisticated profit-taking, not a bearish bet - someone's celebrating big gains!

What's really happening here:
This trader likely bought these $210 calls months ago when MAR was trading much lower (possibly in the $240-270 range during the August-September consolidation). Now, with MAR hitting all-time highs at $305, these calls are worth $97.30 each - representing $95 of intrinsic value plus $2.30 of time premium. Rather than hold through potential volatility, they're locking in massive gains. Think of it like selling your winning lottery ticket before the drawing - you already won, why risk it?

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (898x average size) - This is UNPRECEDENTED! We're talking about a profit-taking event 898 times larger than typical MAR option trades. The Z-score of 15.73 means this is literally off-the-charts - only 2 larger trades in the past 30 days. This happens maybe once a year in MAR options.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

MAR has been steadily grinding higher - up +10.9% YTD with current price of $304.46 (started the year at $274.45). The chart shows a resilient recovery story - after a brutal 30.7% max drawdown in April when the stock bottomed at $212, MAR has rallied an impressive 43.8% from those lows to current all-time highs.

Key observations:
- 🚀 Steady uptrend: Consistent climb from $212 April lows to $305+ November highs
- 📈 New ATH: Just hit fresh all-time high of $307.52 - breaking out to new territory
- 🎢 Moderate volatility: 29.7% annualized vol shows this is a stable large-cap, not a wild mover
- 📊 Volume confirmation: Solid institutional participation throughout the rally
- ⚠️ Overbought territory: After a 44% rally from lows, near-term consolidation or pullback is normal

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $304.45

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price magnets and barriers governing near-term price action:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $300 - Immediate psychological support and round number (key level to hold)
- $297 - Secondary support with moderate put gamma exposure
- $290 - Stronger floor at gamma concentration zone
- $285 - Major structural support (roughly 6.4% pullback from highs)
- $280 - Deep support at significant put gamma accumulation

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $305-$310 - Immediate resistance cluster with heavy call gamma (current price pinned here!)
- $310 - Psychological resistance at round number ($10 strike)
- $320 - Extended ceiling with moderate call gamma exposure (5% rally needed)

What this means for traders:
MAR is trading right at a major gamma resistance zone between $305-$310. The concentration of call options at these strikes creates natural selling pressure as dealers hedge their exposure. This setup screams "consolidation at highs" - stock likely trades in a tight range between $300 support and $310 resistance for a while. The $300 level is THE critical support - hold above that and the uptrend stays intact.

Notice anything? The call seller struck at $210, which is so far in-the-money it's basically a stock proxy. They're not betting on direction here - they're simply converting a deep ITM call position into cash at all-time highs. Smart move.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• 📅 Weekly (Nov 28 - 2 days): ±$3.23 (±1.06%) → Range: $302.63 - $309.00
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (Dec 19 - 23 days): ±$12.49 (±4.09%) → Range: $294.30 - $320.93
• 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 23 days): ±$12.49 (±4.09%) → Range: $294.30 - $320.93
• 📅 February OPEX (Feb 20 - 86 days - THIS TRADE!): ±$25.83 (±8.5%) → Range: $283.65 - $330.59

Translation for regular folks:
Options traders are pricing in a 1% move ($3) by Friday for weekly expiration - basically expecting MAR to stay quiet in the $302-$309 range. The monthly OPEX shows a 4% implied move ($12) through December, which includes holiday travel season. The February 20th expiration (when this $7.6M trade expires) has an upper range of $330 - meaning the market thinks there's a real possibility MAR could trade as high as $330 over the next 3 months if business travel recovers strongly.

Key insight: The relatively modest 1% weekly move reflects MAR's stability as a large-cap hospitality leader. This isn't a volatile tech stock - it's a steady grinder. The call seller is taking advantage of low volatility to lock in gains without paying much time premium decay.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Past Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q3 2024 Earnings - November 4, 2024 (STRONG PERFORMANCE)
- Revenue: $6.26B (+6% YoY)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.26 vs. consensus $2.26, up from $2.11 prior year (+7.1% YoY)
- Worldwide RevPAR: +3.0% driven by both rate and occupancy gains
- International strength: +5.4% RevPAR growth offsetting softer U.S. (+2.1%)
- Development momentum: Record 123,000 gross room openings in 2024

Q4 2024 Earnings - February 11, 2025 (BEAT EXPECTATIONS)
- Worldwide RevPAR: +5.0% driven by gains in both ADR and occupancy
- U.S. & Canada RevPAR: +4.1% (strong domestic recovery)
- International RevPAR: +7.2% (Europe particularly strong at +7.2%)
- Full Year 2024: Global RevPAR +4.3%, Net Rooms Growth +6.8%
- Luxury outperformance: Leisure RevPAR +6% globally, business transient +3%

Q1 2025 Earnings - May 6, 2025 (GUIDANCE CUT)
- Management lowered 2025 RevPAR guidance from 3-5% to 2-4% citing softening U.S. demand
- Weakness in business and government travel segments
- Adjusted EPS guidance: $9.85-$10.08 (slightly below earlier estimates)
- CFO Leeny Oberg: outlook "does not incorporate a recession"
- International remains healthy with 5.3% RevPAR growth expected

Analyst Activity (September-November 2025)
- Wells Fargo: Initiated "Overweight" rating with $329 price target (highest on Street) on November 18, 2025
- BMO Capital: Raised target from $280 to $285 on November 5, 2025
- Barclays: Increased target from $262 to $274 on November 5, 2025
- Consensus: "Moderate Buy" with average price target $285-$289 (slightly below current $305 price!)

Capital Returns Program
- Share Buyback: 25M shares added in August 2025, total 32.4M shares authorized (~$9.6B at current prices)
- YTD Repurchases: 6.4M shares for $1.7B through July 2025
- Dividend: $0.67 quarterly ($2.68 annualized, 0.92% yield)

🚀 Upcoming Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

2025 Full-Year Outlook (CRITICAL TO WATCH)

Updated Guidance:
- RevPAR Growth: 2.0% to 4.0% (reduced from prior 3-5%) due to U.S. softness
- Net Rooms Growth: 4% to 5% expected for 2025
- Regional divergence: U.S./Canada flat-to-modest vs. international +5.3%

What to watch: Any further guidance adjustments would signal worsening fundamentals. Management explicitly stated outlook excludes recession scenario - if economy weakens, RevPAR could disappoint badly.

Luxury Portfolio Expansion - Throughout 2025

30+ luxury properties expected to open in 2025 from 260+ luxury hotel pipeline:
- The Luxury Collection: Casa Brera (Milan, January), The Palace (Madrid, March)
- JW Marriott: Kaafu Atoll Island Resort (Maldives), Crete Resort & Spa, Tokyo
- The Ritz-Carlton: San Juan (Puerto Rico), Nekajui Reserve (Costa Rica), Yacht "Luminara" (Summer 2025)
- W Hotels: New York Union Square, Punta Cana, Florence
- EDITION: Lake Como, Red Sea (Saudi Arabia)

Why this matters: Luxury segment delivers higher margins and attracts affluent travelers less sensitive to economic cycles. 61 luxury deals signed in 2024 (company record) shows strong pipeline momentum.

Business Travel Recovery Trajectory

2025 Outlook:
- Global business travel spending projected to exceed $1.48T (surpassing 2019 record of $1.43T)
- Domestic U.S. growth: 1.4% in 2025
- 71% of travel buyers reported increased bookings in 2024 vs. 2023

Mixed signals:
- Corporate travel incidence rate dropped from 36% (2024) to 31% (2025) - concerning trend
- Larger organizations showing more caution; 1 in 5 expect budget declines
- Meeting budgets expected to increase 1-5%, with 60% in-person

International Expansion Momentum

Pipeline Strength:
- 577,000+ rooms in global development pipeline
- Greater China: 161 signed agreements in 2024 (31K rooms), 73% surge in luxury room signings
- Asia Pacific (ex-China): 109 deals signed across 11 markets (21K rooms), 77K total rooms in pipeline
- Top markets: India, Japan, Indonesia (72% of APEC signings)
- Conversion opportunity: 36% of APEC signings were conversions of existing properties

Technology Rollout - Next 18 Months

System Modernization:
- $1.0-$1.2B technology investment in 2024 (+$150M YoY)
- Beta-launching next-generation reservation, property management, and loyalty systems at six properties
- Phased rollout planned over 18 months across 9,500+ properties
- AI Incubator with 150+ use cases submitted, prioritizing ~10 high-value AI initiatives for 2025

Mobile momentum:
- 78% surge in app downloads in Asia Pacific, 60%+ of bookings now via mobile vs. 37% web
- Strong customer engagement driving direct bookings (higher margins)

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios through February 20th expiration:

📈 Bull Case (30% probability)

Target: $320-$330

How we get there:
- 💪 Business travel recovery accelerates beyond expectations in Q4/Q1
- 🌍 International demand (especially Asia/Europe) continues outperforming (+7-8% RevPAR)
- 🏨 Luxury portfolio openings drive strong Q4 holiday season performance
- 📊 Q4 earnings beat with upward revision to 2026 guidance (RevPAR back to 4-5% range)
- 💰 Company accelerates share buyback program ($32.4M authorization deployed aggressively)
- 🎯 Wells Fargo's $329 price target validated by strong fundamentals
- 📈 Breakout above $310 gamma resistance triggers momentum rally

Key metrics needed:
- U.S. RevPAR growth inflects positive (currently flat-to-modest)
- Marriott Bonvoy 228M members driving 65%+ direct bookings (reducing OTA costs)
- Net rooms growth 5%+ (high end of guidance)
- Gross margins expanding from operational leverage

Probability assessment: Only 30% because it requires U.S. demand improvement contrary to current guidance cut. International strength alone can't drive stock much higher from all-time highs at $305. Analyst consensus $285-$289 suggests limited upside priced in.

🎯 Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $290-$310 range (CONSOLIDATION AT HIGHS)

Most likely scenario:
- ✅ Solid execution on guidance (2-4% RevPAR growth achieved)
- 📱 Steady luxury portfolio expansion with 30+ openings as planned
- ⚖️ U.S. demand remains soft but stable (no recession, but no acceleration either)
- 🌍 International carries the load with healthy 5-6% growth
- 🤖 Technology investments pay off with improved customer engagement
- 🔄 Trading between $300 support and $310 resistance for months
- 💤 Stock consolidates gains after 44% rally from April lows
- 📊 Valuation at ~20-22x forward earnings keeps gains modest

This is the call seller's likely view: Stock has already priced in solid execution. At $305 (all-time highs), risk/reward no longer favors holding leveraged call positions. Better to lock in the 30-40% gains on the calls and wait for better entry. The $7.6M collected represents mission accomplished - they already won.

Why 50% probability: This aligns with management guidance and consensus expectations. Stock at technical inflection point - neither breaking out nor breaking down. Most investors will hold and collect the 0.92% dividend while waiting for next catalyst.

📉 Bear Case (20% probability)

Target: $270-$285 (PULLBACK FROM HIGHS)

What could go wrong:
- 😰 U.S. recession materializes - business travel craters (management admits outlook excludes recession scenario)
- 🚨 Q4/Q1 earnings disappoint with further guidance cuts (RevPAR revised to 0-2% range)
- 💼 Corporate travel incidence continues falling from 31% as remote work persists
- 🏨 Select service weakness spreads to full-service and luxury segments
- 💸 Technology spending ($1B+) fails to deliver ROI, pressuring margins
- 📊 Hilton Honors overtakes Marriott Bonvoy by 2026 as membership leader
- 🔨 Break below $300 psychological support triggers technical selling to $285-$290

Critical support levels:
- 🛡️ $300: Major psychological level and gamma support - MUST HOLD
- 🛡️ $290: Secondary floor (4.7% pullback from highs) - normal consolidation
- 🛡️ $285: Deep support (6.4% pullback) - matches analyst consensus targets

Probability assessment: Only 20% because MAR's fundamentals remain solid (international strong, luxury expanding, 577K room pipeline). $15.1B debt is manageable. Even with U.S. softness, stock has defensive qualities. However, trading at all-time highs with consensus targets below current price leaves little margin for error.

Call seller's P&L:
At any price above $210 at February expiration, the calls expire in-the-money but seller already collected $97.30 per contract. They made their profit when they bought these calls months ago at much lower prices - this sale simply converts the position to cash at peak valuation.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Sidelines or Trim Longs

Play: If you own MAR stock at these levels, consider trimming 25-30% to lock in profits

Why this works:
- ⏰ Stock at all-time highs after 44% rally from April lows - major gains already captured
- 💸 Analyst consensus $285-$289 is BELOW current $305 price - limited upside priced in
- 📊 $7.6M institutional call sale signals smart money taking profits (follow the smart money!)
- 🎯 Guidance cut in Q1 shows management concerned about U.S. demand headwinds
- 📉 Corporate travel incidence falling suggests business travel recovery still uncertain
- 🤔 Better to take some chips off table and wait for pullback to $285-$290

Action plan:
- 👀 Sell 25-30% of position at current $302-$305 levels
- 🎯 Keep core position for dividend ($2.68 annual, 0.92% yield) and long-term upside
- ✅ Look to re-enter shares sold if stock pulls back to $285-$295 range (6-10% correction)
- 📊 Monitor Q4 earnings (likely February 2026) for any positive inflection in U.S. demand
- ⏰ If stock breaks above $315, consider buying back shares (confirms breakout)

Risk level: Minimal (profit protection on existing position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

Expected outcome: Lock in 30-40% gains from earlier purchases. Reduce exposure at peak valuation. Maintain core position for upside optionality.

⚖️ Balanced: Sell Cash-Secured Puts (Premium Collection)

Play: Sell put options at lower strikes to generate income and potentially buy stock cheaper

Structure: Sell $295 puts or Sell $290 puts (February 20 expiration - SAME as the $7.6M call trade)

Why this works:
- 🎢 Collect premium in range-bound environment ($300-$310 consolidation expected)
- 📊 If assigned, you buy MAR at $290-$295 (3-5% below current price) - good entry!
- 🎯 Strikes below gamma support at $300 provide margin of safety
- 🤝 Essentially getting paid to set a buy limit order at better prices
- ⏰ 86 days to expiration gives plenty of time for premium decay
- 🛡️ Even in bear case ($270-$285), assignment at $290-$295 isn't catastrophic

Estimated P&L (based on current pricing):
- 💰 Collect ~$8-10 per contract selling $295 puts (2.7-3.4% return in 86 days)
- 💰 Collect ~$5-7 per contract selling $290 puts (1.7-2.4% return in 86 days)
- 📈 Max profit: Keep entire premium if MAR stays above strike at expiration
- 📉 Assignment risk: Obligated to buy at strike if MAR drops below (but you wanted to buy anyway!)
- 🎯 Annualized return: 11-15% if premium collected and not assigned

Entry timing:
- ✅ Can enter now while implied volatility is moderate (29.7%)
- 🎯 Sell puts on any spike up to $307-$310 (collect more premium)
- ❌ Avoid if stock breaks below $300 (wait for stabilization)

Position sizing: Risk only what you'd be comfortable investing in MAR stock. Each put = obligation to buy 100 shares.

Risk level: Moderate (obligation to buy stock if assigned) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: Bull Put Spread (Defined Risk Bullish Play)

Play: Bet on MAR holding above $300 through February while limiting downside risk

Structure: Sell $300 puts / Buy $290 puts (February 20 expiration)

Why this could work:
- 💥 Profits if MAR stays above $300 (current gamma support and psychological level)
- 🎰 Betting the all-time high momentum continues or consolidates sideways
- 📊 $300 level has strong put gamma support - dealers will buy dips here
- 🚀 Only need stock to avoid 2% drop to $300 to keep max profit
- ⚡ Spread width ($10) limits max loss to defined amount
- 📈 Target the base case scenario (consolidation $300-$310)

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Collect ~$3-4 net credit per spread (selling $300 put premium minus cost of $290 put)
- 📈 Max profit: $300-400 per spread if MAR above $300 at Feb 20 expiration
- 📉 Max loss: $600-700 per spread if MAR below $290 at expiration (defined and limited)
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$296-297
- 📊 Risk/Reward: ~1.5:1 to 2:1 (good for defined-risk bullish play)

Why this could blow up (RISKS):
- 💸 Binary event risk: Recession or earnings disappointment could gap stock below $290
- ⏰ Support breaks: If $300 fails, next support isn't until $285-$290
- 😱 Guidance cut: Further 2025/2026 outlook reductions would pressure stock
- 📊 No upside participation: Even if MAR rallies to $330, you only keep the $3-4 credit
- 🎢 Limited profit potential capped while downside risk significant if wrong on direction

CRITICAL WARNING - DO NOT attempt unless you:
- ✅ Understand defined-risk spreads and max loss scenarios
- ✅ Can afford to lose $600-700 per spread (real possibility if recession hits!)
- ✅ Believe MAR holds $300 support based on gamma levels and fundamentals
- ✅ Accept that max profit is capped at $300-400 regardless of upside
- ⏰ Plan to manage position at 50% profit or 2x loss (don't hold to expiration)

Risk level: HIGH (can lose 1.5-2x premium collected) | Skill level: Advanced only

Probability of profit: ~60-65% (stock needs to stay above $296-297 breakeven)

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

• 📉 U.S. Recession Risk: CEO Capuano acknowledged potential recession risks hinging on corporate profits and employment. CFO Oberg explicitly stated outlook "does not incorporate a recession" - if economy contracts, RevPAR could drop 5-15% (precedent from 2008-2009). Business travel gets cut first in downturns. Marriott operates cyclical business highly exposed to economic health.

• 💼 Business Travel Structural Decline: Corporate travel incidence fell from 36% to 31% suggesting remote work permanently reducing business travel. Larger organizations (>$7.5M travel spend) showing caution with 1 in 5 expecting budget declines. Government-related travel drop particularly acute. If this trend continues, RevPAR growth stays muted even without recession.

• 🎯 Valuation at All-Time Highs with Limited Upside: Stock at $305 near all-time high of $307.52, but consensus price targets average $285-$289 - that's 5-7% BELOW current price! Wells Fargo's $329 target is the outlier. After 44% rally from April lows, most upside already realized. Downside to consensus targets suggests 5-7% correction likely.

• 📊 Guidance Already Cut Once: Management lowered 2025 RevPAR from 3-5% to 2-4% in Q1 citing U.S. softness. If conditions worsen, another cut could drop outlook to 0-2% range. Stock would likely gap down 10-15% on additional guidance reduction. Credibility hit if management has to revise down twice in same year.

• 🏨 Loyalty Program Competition: Hilton Honors growing 147%, on track to overtake Marriott Bonvoy's 228M members by 2026. Loss of loyalty leadership would pressure direct bookings and increase OTA commission costs. Member defection risk if value proposition weakens. Increased marketing spend to retain leadership.

• 💻 Technology Transformation Execution Risk: $1B+ annual investment in multi-year system overhaul across 9,500+ properties carries integration risk. Beta testing new platforms at six properties before 18-month rollout. Potential for system disruptions affecting operations and bookings. If technology investments don't deliver ROI, margins pressured.

• 💰 Debt Burden in Rising Rate Environment: $15.1B debt manageable but limits financial flexibility if economy weakens. Rising interest rates pressure refinancing costs. Less dry powder for acquisitions or accelerated buybacks if recession hits.

• 🐋 Smart Money Exit Signal: This $7.6M call sale represents institutional profit-taking at all-time highs. When sophisticated players cash out 898x average size positions rather than staying long, it's a caution flag. They're not bearish on the story - they just see better risk/reward elsewhere after capturing huge gains.

• 🌍 International Revenue Concentration Risk: Heavy reliance on international growth (+7.2% Q4 RevPAR) to offset U.S. weakness. Geopolitical events, travel restrictions, or currency fluctuations could impact 144 countries of operations. China market expansion (161 deals in 2024) carries regulatory and political risk.

• 📈 Gamma Resistance at $310: Call gamma concentration at $305-$310 creates mechanical selling pressure. Would need sustained institutional buying to overcome dealer hedging flows. Current price pinned right under this ceiling - breakout difficult without major catalyst.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just collected $7.6 MILLION selling deep in-the-money MAR calls at all-time highs. This isn't a bearish bet on hospitality - it's smart profit-taking by an institution that likely made 30-40% on these calls and decided $305 is a great place to lock in gains.

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Sophisticated player sees $300-$310 as a reasonable range for near-term trading (not expecting breakout)
- 💰 They're satisfied with the rally from $212 April lows to $305 (44% gain) - mission accomplished
- ⚖️ The timing (at all-time highs with consensus targets $285-$289) shows disciplined risk management
- 📊 Rather than hope for $320-$330, they're converting paper gains to cash at peak valuation
- ⏰ February 20th expiration originally chosen to capture year-end holiday travel and Q4 earnings

This is NOT a "sell everything" signal - it's a "take some profits and be selective" signal.

If you own MAR:
- ✅ Consider trimming 25-30% at $302-$305 levels (lock in solid gains, reduce risk)
- 📊 If holding long-term, set MENTAL STOP at $300 (major support) to protect remaining position
- ⏰ Don't get greedy - stock up 44% from April lows is EXCELLENT. Protecting profits is smart.
- 🎯 If you're trimmed and stock pulls back to $285-$290, consider re-entering (better risk/reward)
- 🛡️ Dividend of $2.68/year (0.92% yield) provides some downside cushion while you wait

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ⏰ Wait for pullback to $285-$295 before initiating new position (6-10% correction from highs)
- 🎯 Current $305 offers poor risk/reward with consensus targets below current price
- 📈 Looking for confirmation of: U.S. demand stabilization, Q4 earnings beat, business travel recovery
- 🚀 Longer-term (12+ months), 577K room pipeline, luxury expansion, and 228M Bonvoy members support growth story
- ⚠️ But near-term (3-6 months), path of least resistance likely sideways-to-down given valuation

If you're bearish:
- 🎯 $300 psychological support is THE level to watch - break triggers cascade to $285-$290
- 📊 Put spreads ($305/$295 or $300/$290) offer defined-risk way to play modest pullback
- ⚠️ Don't fight the tape by shorting at $305 - wait for break of support before aggressive bearish positioning
- 📉 Watch for any additional guidance cuts or recession warnings from management
- ⏰ Q4 earnings (likely February 2026) could be catalyst if U.S. demand deteriorates further

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 November 28 (Thursday) - Weekly options expiration (±1% implied move to $302-$309)
- 📅 December 19 - Monthly OPEX & Quarterly Triple Witch (±4% implied move to $294-$321)
- 📅 January 16, 2026 - Monthly OPEX
- 📅 February 20, 2026 - Monthly OPEX, expiration of this $7.6M call trade
- 📅 Late February 2026 - Q4 2024 earnings likely (critical test of guidance)
- 📅 Throughout 2025 - 30+ luxury property openings

Final verdict: MAR's long-term hospitality dominance story remains compelling - world's largest hotel company, 577K room pipeline, record luxury expansion, and asset-light model (98% managed/franchised) generates strong cash flow. The international growth (+7.2% RevPAR) and $9.6B buyback authorization provide support. BUT, at $305 (all-time highs) with consensus targets at $285-$289 and U.S. demand softness, the risk/reward is NO LONGER attractive for new money.

The $7.6M institutional call sale is a CLEAR signal: smart money is taking profits at the peak, not adding exposure.

Be patient. Let the stock digest gains. Look for better entry at $285-$295. The hospitality recovery will still be here in 3-6 months, and you'll sleep better paying $290 instead of $305.

Profit-taking is not bearish - it's smart capital allocation. 💪

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 898x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent MAR history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. The call seller may have complex portfolio hedging needs or acquisition costs not disclosed that affect their profitability.

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About Marriott International: Marriott International operates approximately 1.8 million rooms across 30 brands globally in the Hotels & Motels industry, with a market cap of $81.6 billion. The company generates revenue primarily through management fees, franchise fees, and incentive fees (98% of rooms managed/franchised rather than owned).