LYFT Erupts with VOLCANIC Option Activity - Waymo Partnership Drives Monster Bets! - September 24, 2025

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $16.2M in bearish option bets on LYFT following its recent Waymo partnership surge! This isn't your average retail trade - we're talking institutional-sized positioning with 30,000 contracts each that's 12,152x larger than typical LYFT option activity. With the stock up 40% this month, smart money appears to be locking in gains or betting on a pullback.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape - What Actually Hit Today

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	C/P	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:07:54	LYFT	BID	SELL	CALL	2027-01-15	$9.2M	$35	30K	22K	30,000	$22.23	$3.05
10:07:54	LYFT	BELOW BID	SELL	CALL	2025-10-31	$3.8M	$23	30K	391	30,000	$22.23	$1.26
10:07:54	LYFT	MID	BUY	PUT	2027-01-15	$3.2M	$12	30K	25K	30,000	$22.23	$1.07

Symbol Format: LYFT20270115C35, LYFT20251031C23, LYFT20270115P12

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This is VOLCANIC activity that scored a perfect 10/10 on our unusual meter 🌋

• $9.2M Call Sell at $35 strike (2027): Big money is betting LYFT won't hit $35 by January 2027. That's capping upside at 57% from here.
• $3.8M Call Sell at $23 strike (Oct 2025): Near-the-money call selling suggests resistance right above current levels. They're betting the rally stalls.
• $3.2M Put Buy at $12 strike (2027): Deep downside protection - someone's hedging against a 46% crash or worse.

Translation for us regular folks: After a 40% moonshot this month, institutional traders are taking profits and protecting against downside. This looks like classic "sell the news" positioning after the Waymo catalyst played out. 🎯

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Chart Analysis

LYFT has been on an absolute tear in 2025! The stock exploded from around $16 to over $22 this month (+40%) following the Waymo partnership announcement. We're now testing resistance near the year's highs, with momentum indicators stretched to the upside.

🎯 Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Critical Levels from Options Activity:

🛡️ Support Levels (Blue bars = Put gamma):
- $22.00 - STRONGEST support (right at current price!)
- $21.00 - Secondary support (-4.7% from here)
- $20.00 - Major floor with heavy gamma (-9.2% down)

🚧 Resistance Levels (Orange bars = Call gamma):
- $22.50 - Immediate resistance (+2.2% up)
- $23.00 - Key resistance where today's calls were sold (+4.4%)
- $25.00 - Major resistance with massive call gamma (+13.5%)

The gamma profile shows we're sitting RIGHT on the $22 pivot - this is make-or-break territory! Options activity suggests the stock will likely pin near $22-23 in the near term, with heavy resistance above $23.

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🎪 Catalysts

📅 Upcoming Events

2026 Catalysts:
- Waymo Nashville Launch - Fully autonomous ride-hailing service goes live with Google's Waymo per partnership announcement
- BENTELER/HOLON Autonomous Shuttles - Airport and city deployments begin late 2026 via Lyft blog
- Baidu Europe Expansion - RT6 autonomous vehicles launch in Germany & UK source

✅ Recently Happened

• September 17, 2025: Stock surged 12.2% on Waymo partnership news market reaction
• July 31, 2025: FreeNow acquisition closed, expanding European presence SEC filing
• Q2 2025: Record results - $1.6B revenue (+11% YoY), $329M free cash flow earnings report

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on gamma levels and catalyst timeline:

🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)

Target: $25.00
Major call gamma resistance sits here. Would need Q3 earnings beat + strong FreeNow integration numbers to push through. The 2027 $35 call seller clearly doesn't see much beyond this level.

😐 Base Case (60% chance)

Target: $22.00-$23.00
Pin right between support and resistance. Today's massive call selling at $23 creates a ceiling, while $22 gamma support holds as floor. Expect rangebound action near current levels.

😰 Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $20.00
If $22 support breaks, next major gamma support is at $20 (where we see heavy put interest). That deep $12 put buy suggests someone's worried about tail risk, but that's extreme downside insurance.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play

Sell $21 Puts (Oct expiration)
- Collect premium while stock sits on support
- Get paid to potentially buy LYFT 5% cheaper
- Risk: Assignment if stock drops below $21

⚖️ Balanced Strategy

$22/$24 Call Spread (November expiration)
- Buy $22 calls, sell $24 calls
- Captures upside to resistance with defined risk
- Max gain if LYFT hits $24 by expiration

🚀 Aggressive YOLO

Buy $25 Calls (January 2026)
- Bet on Q3 earnings surprise breaking resistance
- Cheap lottery tickets if autonomous narrative accelerates
- Risk: Total loss if stock stays below $25

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Valuation stretched: P/E of 59.5x is pricing in perfection 📊
• Autonomous timeline risk: 2026 rollouts could face delays
• Competition: Uber's also partnering with autonomous players
• Today's flow is BEARISH: $13M in call selling vs $3.2M put buying
• Profit-taking zone: Up 40% in a month = natural selling pressure

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: Smart money just placed $16.2M in bearish bets after LYFT's massive rally - and this isn't normal activity, it's 12,152x larger than average! 🌋

The institutional playbook is clear: They're selling calls to cap upside at $23-35 and buying deep puts for disaster insurance. After a 40% moonshot on Waymo news, they're saying "show me the money" on actual autonomous deployment in 2026.

Mark your calendar:
- Own it: Wait for a pullback to $20-21 support
- Trading it: Play the $22-23 range with defined risk spreads
- Bearish: Those massive call sales at $23 are your short entry

The gamma setup suggests we're stuck in the $22-23 zone near-term. Unless Q3 earnings (coming late October) deliver a massive surprise, the path of least resistance is sideways to slightly down from here. Today's monster option activity is institutional money voting with their wallets - and they're voting "sell the news" after this epic rally! 💰

Company Overview:
- Market Cap: $9.16B
- Sector: Business Services (ride-sharing platform)
- Shares Outstanding: 397.9M
- Headquarters: San Francisco, CA
- Employees: 2,934

Options trading involves significant risk and isn't suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only - always do your own research and manage position sizes appropriately!