KDP: $7.6M Collar Unwind - Institutional Player Closes Protection & Banks Profit!

November 13, 2025 | Unusual Activity Detected

The Quick Take

Someone just closed out a $7.6M collar position on KDP this afternoon! This defensive structure involved buying to close 126,000 contracts of $25 strike puts and selling to close 123,000 contracts of $27 strike calls, both expiring November 21st. With KDP trading at $27.08 and the stock down nearly 20% over the past three months, this institutional unwind signals either profit-taking on a protective position or a shift in market outlook ahead of the upcoming earnings catalyst. Translation: Smart money is taking chips off the table after protecting downside during the stock's recent selloff.

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Company Overview

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a leading beverage company in North America with a diversified portfolio spanning refreshment beverages and coffee:

• Market Cap: $36.31 Billion
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic (Consumer Staples)
• Current Price: $27.08 (November 13, 2025)
• Primary Business: Owns, manufactures, and distributes beverages and single-serve brewing systems across three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages ($9.3B revenue), U.S. Coffee ($4.0B revenue), and International operations
• Portfolio: 125+ owned, licensed, and partner brands including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Snapple, Keurig, Green Mountain Coffee, and Mott's

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The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 13, 2025 @ 12:47:19):

Date	Time	Symbol	Buy/Sell	Call/Put	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
2025-11-13	12:47:19	KDP	BUY	PUT	2025-11-21	$1.5M	$25	126K	129K	125,700	$27.08	$0.12
2025-11-13	12:47:19	KDP	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$6.1M	$27	123K	132K	122,400	$27.08	$0.50

What This Actually Means

This is a collar unwind - closing out a protective position that was established earlier. Here's what went down:

• Net credit received: $4.6M on the close ($6.1M from selling calls minus $1.5M spent on puts)
• Protection removed: The $25 puts that provided downside protection below current price have been bought back
• Upside cap removed: The $27 calls that capped gains above current levels have been closed
• Strategic timing: 8 days before November 21st expiration, closing before Q4 earnings (February 19, 2026) and major JDE Peet's acquisition milestones
• Massive size: Combined 248,400 contracts represents 24.8 million shares worth ~$672M
• Institutional positioning: This is sophisticated unwinding, not directional speculation

What's really happening here:

This trader originally established a Long Collar strategy - likely when KDP was trading higher around $30-33. The structure bought $25 puts for downside protection while selling $27 calls to finance the hedge. Now, with the stock at $27.08 (right at the short call strike) and having protected through the brutal selloff from $33.56 to $26.90 (-19.85%), they're closing the entire position and banking the net $4.6M credit received. This suggests either: (1) mission accomplished - the hedge served its purpose during the drawdown, or (2) outlook shifting more bullish ahead of catalysts.

Unusual Score: EXTREME (Z-scores of 6.75 for puts, 6.83 for calls) - Both legs classified as "EXTREMELY_UNUSUAL" with Vol/OI ratios of 0.977 and 0.932 indicating massive activity relative to existing open interest. The 1:1 volume pattern confirms this is a single coordinated trade, not separate flows.

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Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

KDP has had a challenging year - down 19.85% over the past three months from $33.56 (November 13, 2024) to $26.90 (November 12, 2025). The chart tells a story of initial strength followed by a sharp reversal driven by the JDE Peet's acquisition announcement.

Key observations:

• Major selloff post-acquisition announcement: Stock declined 11% immediately following the August 25, 2025 JDE Peet's announcement on concerns about the 33% premium paid and increased debt load
• Trading near 52-week lows: Current price of $27.08 well below 52-week range of $30.12 - $38.28
• Valuation compression: P/E ratio of 23.23 now sits 50% below historical average, suggesting the market has materially de-rated the stock
• Dividend support: 3.54% dividend yield ($0.92 annual) provides income cushion and potential support
• Volume patterns: Elevated trading volume during August-October selloff shows distribution, now stabilizing

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $26.995

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price magnets and barriers that will govern near-term price action:

Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $26.00 - Immediate support with 9.2B total gamma exposure (strongest nearby floor, only 3.7% below current)
• $25.00 - MAJOR structural floor with 46.3B gamma (HIGHEST PUT GAMMA - this is where the collar put strike was set! Not coincidental - exactly where this trade provided protection)
• $24.00 - Secondary support at 1.2B gamma (11.1% below current)
• $23.00 - Extended support zone with 0.3B gamma (14.8% below current)

Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $27.00 - MASSIVE resistance with 134.1B gamma (STRONGEST LEVEL ON ENTIRE CHART - exactly where short calls were struck!)
• $28.00 - Secondary ceiling at 16.5B gamma (3.7% overhead)
• $29.00 - Major resistance zone with 5.8B gamma (7.4% above current)
• $30.00 - Extended upside target at 5.6B gamma (11.1% rally required)
• $31.00 - Longer-term resistance at 2.8B gamma (14.8% above current)

What this means for traders:

KDP is trading in a CRITICAL zone - stuck directly between the two strikes of this collar ($25 support, $27 resistance). The gamma data shows $27 with absolutely CRUSHING resistance at 134.1B - the single largest level by far. This creates natural selling pressure as price approaches. The $25 level with 46.3B gamma is THE critical support - break below that and momentum could accelerate toward $24.

Notice the perfect positioning: The collar buyer struck EXACTLY at the two most significant gamma levels on the entire chart - $25 (strongest support) and $27 (strongest resistance). This wasn't luck - this was sophisticated positioning that recognized KDP would likely trade in this $25-27 range during the period of acquisition uncertainty.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish (166.8B call gamma vs 61.3B put gamma) - Overall positioning remains constructive, but immediate price action constrained by massive overhead resistance at $27.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• Weekly (Nov 21 - 8 days): ±$0.84 (±3.1%) → Range: $26.11 - $27.79
• Monthly OPEX (Dec 19 - 36 days): ±$1.47 (±5.4%) → Range: $25.48 - $28.42
• January OPEX (Jan 16 - 64 days): ±$1.89 (±7.0%) → Range: $25.06 - $28.84

Translation:

Options traders are pricing in relatively LOW volatility compared to the recent selloff - only a 3.1% move ($0.84) through November 21st expiration (where this collar expires). The market expects KDP to remain range-bound in the $26-28 zone over the next week, with somewhat larger moves into year-end.

The January 16th expiration has an upper range of $28.84 and lower range of $25.06 - meaning the market thinks KDP will likely stay within this $25-29 channel over the next 64 days. This aligns perfectly with the collar structure: protection at $25, cap at $27.

Key insight: The relatively modest implied volatility (compared to the 20% three-month decline) suggests the market believes the worst is over. The collar unwind may reflect this stabilization view.

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Trade Analysis: Long Collar Strategy Unwind

Strategy Structure

This was a textbook Long Collar (Protective Collar) position being closed:

Original Entry (estimated based on current close):
- Bought $25 PUT protection - Closed for $0.12 per contract
- Sold $27 CALL - Bought back for $0.50 per contract
- Net position: Long stock with protective collar

Close Transaction (November 13):
- Buy to close: 126,000 x $25 puts = $1.5M paid
- Sell to close: 123,000 x $27 calls = $6.1M received
- Net credit on unwind: $4.6M

Risk/Reward Profile

When originally established (likely at higher stock prices):

The collar provided:
- Downside protection: Any stock decline below $25 was fully hedged by the long puts
- Upside cap: Any gains above $27 were capped by the short calls
- Cost: Nearly zero or small net credit (selling $27 calls financed buying $25 puts)

Current unwind mechanics:

With stock at $27.08:
- Short $27 calls: Nearly at-the-money, expensive to buy back ($0.50)
- Long $25 puts: Deep out-of-the-money, cheap ($0.12)
- Net P&L on collar: Depends on original entry prices, but protected during 20% selloff

Greeks Analysis

At time of close:

Delta exposure:
- $25 puts (long): ~0.15 delta each = +18,900 deltas (bullish when long puts)
- $27 calls (short): ~0.50 delta each = -61,500 deltas (bearish when short calls)
- Net delta: -42,600 (mildly bearish position)
- After unwind: Trader returns to pure long stock exposure (bullish)

Theta decay:
- With 8 days to expiration, theta was working against both legs
- Calls decaying faster (higher premium) than puts
- Unwinding before final week theta acceleration was smart move

Vega:
- Position was short vega (net option seller via collar)
- Implied volatility declining post-selloff meant collar value decreasing
- Timing the unwind as IV normalizes captured value

Breakeven Analysis

For the collar position (from original entry):

Assuming original entry around $30-32 stock price:
- Maximum loss: Stock price down to $25 = Protected below this
- Maximum gain: Stock price up to $27 = Capped above this
- Actual outcome: Stock at $27.08 = Near maximum collar value

Key insight: This collar performed EXACTLY as designed - protected the downside during the 20% selloff while stock recovered back toward the upside cap. The trader is unwinding because the protection served its purpose.

Scenario Analysis

What happens next depends on why they're unwinding:

Scenario 1: Bullish Outlook Shift (40% probability)
- Trader believes $25-27 range too conservative
- Expects positive catalysts (earnings, JDE Peet's approval, product launches)
- Removing collar to capture full upside above $27
- Stock target: $29-31 over next quarter

Scenario 2: Profit-Taking / Rebalancing (35% probability)
- Collar accomplished its mission (protected during selloff)
- Taking $4.6M credit and moving to cash or other positions
- De-risking before major binary events (earnings, deal close)
- Stock target: Neutral, no longer holding

Scenario 3: Rolling to New Protection (25% probability)
- Closing expiring collar (Nov 21 too near-term)
- Will establish new collar with later expiration (Jan/Mar)
- Adjusting strikes to current price levels ($24 puts / $29 calls)
- Stock target: Range-bound $24-29

Alternative Approaches

Instead of unwinding, trader could have:

1. Let it expire (8 days away):
2. Risk: Stock rallies above $27, short calls get assigned
3. Reward: Collect final theta decay on both legs

4. Why they didn't: Assignment risk at $27.08 too high

5. Close puts, keep short calls:

6. Generate income from covered calls while removing put cost
7. Cap upside at $27 but retain stock ownership

8. Why they didn't: Suggests bullish view or complete exit

9. Roll collar to later date:

10. Extend protection into 2026
11. Adjust strikes to wider range ($23/$30)
12. Why they didn't: Either exiting position or changing strategy

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Catalysts

Immediate Catalysts (Next 60 Days)

November 21, 2025 - Option Expiration (8 days away)

The collar expiration date is rapidly approaching:
- Current stock price of $27.08 is just above the $27 short call strike
- High probability of assignment if stock stays above $27
- Explains timing of unwind - avoid exercise complications

Q4 2025 Earnings - February 19, 2026 (98 days away)

KDP's fourth quarter earnings will be critical for validating the full-year 2025 guidance:

• Revenue estimate: Not yet available (typically released ~4 weeks before)
• 2025 FY guidance: High-single-digit constant currency sales growth (raised from mid-single-digit in October)
• EPS guidance: High-single-digit adjusted EPS growth
• Key metrics: U.S. Refreshment Beverages performance, Coffee segment stabilization, GHOST integration progress
• Critical topics: 2026 guidance including JDE Peet's transaction impact, GLP-1 drug consumption commentary, MI325X momentum

GHOST Distribution Integration (Ongoing through mid-2026)

The $1.65B GHOST energy drink acquisition continues ramping:
- Distribution transition to KDP's DSD network began March 2025
- $250M investment deployment through mid-2025
- Combined energy portfolio targeting $1B+ retail sales in 2025
- Integration completion expected mid-2026
- Revenue contribution already included in FY2025 guidance

Near-Term Catalysts (Q1-Q2 2026)

Product Launches - Q1 2026

KDP announced major flavor innovations launching early 2026:

• Dr Pepper Blackberry: Permanent flavor in regular and zero sugar, targeting blackberry CSD category growing 2x faster than overall category
• 7UP Tropical: Mango and peach flavors
• Snapple Peach Tea & Lemonade: New variety expansion
• A&W Ice Cream Sundae: Regular and zero sugar varieties
• RC Cola Zero Sugar: National launch
• Bai Strawberry Varieties: Two new varieties

Expected revenue impact: Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut set record as most successful limited-time CSD offering in 2024 - new innovations could contribute 1-3% incremental growth.

JDE Peet's Regulatory Milestones

The transformational $18B JDE Peet's acquisition progresses toward H1 2026 close:

• Dutch AFM filing: No later than November 16, 2025 (3 days away!)
• U.S. antitrust review: Filed and under review
• Dutch Works Council: Received positive advice
• Tender offer: Expected Q1-Q2 2026
• Transaction close: H1 2026 target
• Post-close separation: KDP will split into two independent companies (Refreshment Beverages and Global Coffee)
• Synergies: $400M cost synergies over 3 years

Financing secured: $7B from private equity firms to fund acquisition.

Market Position & Brand Momentum

Dr Pepper Market Leadership:

Dr Pepper achieved historic milestone in 2024:
- 8.3% U.S. soda market share by volume, overtaking Pepsi (also 8.3%) as #2 brand behind Coca-Cola (19.2%)
- First time Dr Pepper surpassed Pepsi in market position
- Retail dollar consumption advanced 8.7% with market share gains in ~85% of cold beverage categories

Operating Performance:

Full-year 2024 results demonstrate execution strength:
- Net sales: $15.35B, up 3.6% (3.9% constant currency)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.92, up 7.8%
- Operating margin improved 120 bps to 25.9% despite inflationary pressures
- U.S. Refreshment Beverages: $9.3B (+5.8%), 30.7% margins

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Risk Factors

JDE Peet's Integration Risk (High Severity)

The $18B acquisition represents a transformational deal for a $36B company:
- Execution complexity: Merging coffee operations across multiple geographies followed by separation into two companies
- Debt burden: $7B private equity financing materially increases leverage
- Valuation concerns: 33% premium paid raised analyst questions - triggered multiple downgrades
- Timeline uncertainty: H1 2026 close subject to regulatory approvals; separation adds complexity
- Market reaction: Stock fell 11% on announcement day

Analyst downgrades post-announcement:
- BNP Paribas: Neutral → Underperform, $24 target
- Barclays: Overweight → Equal-Weight, $39 → $26 target
- Current consensus: $33.20 average target (range $24-$41)

Coffee Segment Weakness (Medium Severity)

Persistent challenges in coffee business:
- U.S. Coffee sales declined 2.6% in FY2024 to $4.0B
- At-home coffee category remains "muted"
- K-Cup pod pricing pressure throughout 2024
- Turnaround depends on Keurig Alta adoption (new brewer and K-Rounds plastic-free pods)

GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Headwinds (Medium-High Severity)

Existential threat to sugary beverage consumption:
- Consumer staples faced 2024 headwinds from GLP-1 concerns
- 9+ obesity drugs expected by 2027 - adoption accelerating
- Reduced caloric intake among GLP-1 users could pressure CSD, juice, energy categories
- Mitigation: Zero sugar portfolio expansion (Dr Pepper Zero Sugar, A&W Zero Sugar)

Valuation & Market Concerns (Medium Severity)

Current trading levels reflect significant uncertainty:
- P/E ratio: 23.23 (50% below historical average)
- Recent performance: Down 19.85% over three months
- 52-week range: $30.12 - $38.28 (currently near lows)
- Dividend yield: 3.54% (provides support but limits growth perception)

Geographic Concentration (Medium Severity)

Limited diversification creates risk:
- ~85% revenue from U.S./Canada markets
- Constrains growth opportunities vs. global peers (Coca-Cola, PepsiCo)
- JDE Peet's partially addresses this but will separate post-acquisition

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Price Targets & Probabilities

Bull Case (30% probability)

Target: $31-33

How we get there:
- Q4 earnings exceed raised guidance with revenue growth at high end of high-single-digit range
- GHOST integration progressing ahead of schedule with $1B+ energy portfolio validated
- JDE Peet's regulatory approvals proceed smoothly, closing H1 2026 as planned
- Dr Pepper market share gains continue, validating brand momentum
- New product launches (Dr Pepper Blackberry, etc.) drive incremental growth
- Coffee segment stabilizes with Keurig Alta gaining traction
- Synergy targets from JDE Peet's ($400M over 3 years) appear achievable
- Stock re-rates toward historical P/E multiple as execution derisks

Key metrics needed:
- U.S. Refreshment Beverages growth sustained above 5%
- Coffee segment returning to flat to positive growth
- Gross margins expanding (proving pricing power)
- 2026 guidance incorporating JDE Peet's accretion

Probability: 30% because it requires successful execution across multiple fronts while integrating transformational acquisition. Current valuation discount suggests market skeptical.

Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $26-29 range (CONSOLIDATION)

Most likely scenario:
- Solid Q4 earnings meeting raised FY2025 guidance
- GHOST integration proceeding on schedule without major issues
- JDE Peet's deal closes H1 2026 with typical integration challenges
- Dr Pepper momentum continues but CSD category remains low-growth
- Coffee segment remains challenged but not deteriorating
- Stock trades within gamma support ($25-26) and resistance ($27-29) bands
- Market awaits proof points on JDE Peet's synergies before re-rating
- Dividend yield of 3.54% provides support, limiting downside
- Volatility settles post-acquisition uncertainty

This aligns with the collar unwind timing: Trader protected through worst of selloff ($33 → $27), now expects range-bound action as uncertainty resolves. The $26-29 range matches implied move projections.

Probability: 50% because fundamentals are solid (Dr Pepper strength, margin expansion, raised guidance) but major acquisition creates uncertainty that takes time to resolve. Most institutional players will hold and wait.

Bear Case (20% probability)

Target: $23-25

What could go wrong:
- JDE Peet's regulatory delays or unexpected conditions imposed
- Q4 earnings disappoint or 2026 guidance conservative due to integration drag
- Coffee segment deterioration accelerates, undermining turnaround thesis
- GLP-1 adoption impacts beverage consumption more than expected
- GHOST integration hits snags, reducing energy portfolio potential
- Broader macro recession reduces consumer spending on premium beverages
- Debt from JDE Peet's acquisition weighs on valuation multiples
- Private label pressure intensifies across categories
- Break below $26 gamma support triggers technical selling toward $25, then $23

Critical support levels:
- $26: Immediate floor (9.2B gamma) - must hold
- $25: Major support (46.3B gamma) - THE LINE IN THE SAND
- $24: Extended floor (1.2B gamma) - disaster scenario

Probability: 20% because fundamentals remain solid (Dr Pepper momentum, operating leverage, diversified portfolio) and valuation already compressed. Requires multiple negative catalysts to break structural $25 support. However, execution risk on $18B deal is real.

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Trading Ideas

Conservative: Dividend Harvester Strategy

Play: Accumulate shares in $25-27 range for 3.54% dividend yield while optionality resolves

Why this works:
- Valuation attractive at 23.2x P/E (50% below historical average)
- $25 gamma support provides technical floor (46.3B)
- Dividend of $0.92 annual ($0.23 quarterly) offers income while waiting
- Dr Pepper momentum validates revenue growth story
- JDE Peet's catalyst provides asymmetric upside if integration succeeds
- Limited downside with stock at 3-month lows, 19.85% off recent highs

Action plan:
- Scale into position between $25-27 (average in over 2-4 weeks)
- Target 3-5% portfolio allocation
- Reinvest dividends for compounding
- Hold through Q4 earnings and JDE Peet's close
- Exit plan: Sell covered calls at $29-30 strikes 60-90 days out to generate additional income

Risk level: Low (dividend provides cushion, gamma support limits downside)
Skill level: Beginner-friendly
Time horizon: 6-12 months

Balanced: Post-Earnings Covered Call

Play: Buy stock at $26-27, sell monthly covered calls at $28-29 strikes

Structure:
- Buy 100 shares KDP at $26.50 = $2,650 cost basis
- Sell 1x $28 call (30-45 days out) for ~$0.40-0.50 premium

Why this works:
- Generate 1.5-2% monthly income from call premium + 3.54% annual dividend
- $28 strike above current resistance (16.5B gamma) - low assignment risk
- If assigned at $28, achieve 5.7% gain + premium collected + dividend
- Premium reduces effective cost basis and downside risk
- Gamma resistance at $27-28 makes upside capped anyway

Estimated returns:
- Premium income: ~$40-50 per month per 100 shares (1.5-1.9% monthly)
- Dividend income: ~$23 per quarter per 100 shares (0.87% quarterly)
- Total yield: ~20-25% annualized if repeatable

Entry timing:
- Wait for any post-earnings pullback toward $26
- Start selling calls 2-3 days after volatility settles
- Roll calls if stock approaches $28 to avoid assignment

Position sizing: 5-10% of portfolio (core income position)
Risk level: Moderate (stock ownership risk, capped upside)
Skill level: Intermediate

Aggressive: Long-Term Bull Put Spread (Advanced)

Play: Sell put spread betting on $25 support holding into Q1 2026

Structure:
- Sell 1x $26 PUT (March 2026 expiration)
- Buy 1x $24 PUT (March 2026 expiration)
- Net credit: ~$0.60-0.80 per spread ($60-80 collected)

Why this could work:
- $25 is MASSIVE gamma support (46.3B) - would take multiple catalysts to break
- March expiration captures Q4 earnings and JDE Peet's milestones
- Defined risk: $2 wide spread = $200 max loss, $60-80 credit = $120-140 risk
- Breakeven: ~$25.20-25.40 (7% downside cushion from current $27)
- If stock stays above $26, keep entire credit (30-40% ROI on risk)
- Selling at-the-money $26 put captures high premium due to support

Why this could blow up:
- JDE Peet's deal falls through or major negative news
- Coffee segment deterioration accelerates
- Macro recession drives consumer staples lower
- Stock breaks $25 support, spread goes full loss

Estimated P&L:
- Max profit: $60-80 if stock above $26 at March expiration (30-40% ROI)
- Max loss: $120-140 if stock below $24 (60-70% loss on capital at risk)
- Breakeven: ~$25.20-25.40

CRITICAL WARNING:
- Only attempt if you can afford assignment at $26 (put could be exercised)
- Requires margin account for short options
- Need to monitor closely as expiration approaches
- Consider taking profits at 50-60% max gain rather than holding to expiration

Risk level: High (undefined assignment risk, directional bet)
Skill level: Advanced only
Probability of profit: ~65% (based on $26 strike with $25.20 breakeven)

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The Bottom Line

Real talk: A sophisticated player just unwound a $7.6M collar position that protected them through KDP's brutal 20% selloff from $33 to $27. This isn't a directional bet - it's smart money that accomplished its mission (downside protection) and is now repositioning for the next phase.

What this trade tells us:

• Protection worked: The $25 puts hedged the entire decline below that level (stock bottomed at $26.90)
• Maximum collar value achieved: Stock recovered to $27.08, right at the short call strike where the collar caps gains
• Strategic exit: Closing 8 days before expiration avoids assignment complications and banks $4.6M net credit
• Outlook shift: Either bullish (removing cap to participate in upside) or neutral (taking profits and moving on)

This is NOT a "sell everything" signal - it's a "mission accomplished, time to reassess" signal.

If you own KDP:
- Valuation attractive at 23.2x P/E (50% discount to historical average)
- 3.54% dividend yield provides income support
- $25-27 gamma range likely contains price action near-term
- Dr Pepper momentum validates growth story
- Consider selling covered calls at $28-29 to generate income while holding
- Stop loss: Break below $25 (major gamma support) would be concerning

If you're watching from sidelines:
- Wait for any post-earnings pullback toward $25-26 for entry
- Strong risk/reward with gamma support at $25 (46.3B), resistance at $27 (134.1B)
- Dividend income provides cushion while waiting for catalysts
- JDE Peet's deal provides asymmetric upside if execution succeeds
- Coffee weakness and GLP-1 concerns already priced into current levels

If you're bearish:
- Hard to make bear case at current valuations (P/E 50% below average)
- $25 gamma support is MASSIVE - would need multiple catalysts to break
- Dr Pepper market share gains and margin expansion support fundamentals
- Better to wait for failed rally above $28 to initiate shorts
- Put spreads below $25 offer defined-risk way to play downside if support breaks

Key dates to watch:

• November 16, 2025: Dutch AFM filing deadline for JDE Peet's offer memorandum (3 days!)
• November 21, 2025: Collar expiration date
• February 19, 2026: Q4 2025 earnings release
• Q1-Q2 2026: Product launches (Dr Pepper Blackberry, 7UP Tropical, etc.)
• H1 2026: JDE Peet's transaction close target
• Mid-2026: GHOST integration completion, post-acquisition separation begins

Final verdict: KDP's story is transitioning from "defensive value play during acquisition uncertainty" to "show me execution on integration." The collar unwind signals the protection phase is over. At current prices with strong dividend support and massive gamma floor at $25, the risk/reward favors patient accumulation for those who believe in the Dr Pepper momentum and JDE Peet's strategic rationale. The next 90 days (earnings + deal milestones) will determine whether the stock breaks out above $27 resistance or consolidates in the $25-27 range.

Be patient. Let catalysts unfold. The beverage market isn't going anywhere, and neither is Dr Pepper's market share dominance.

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The "EXTREMELY_UNUSUAL" classification reflects the Z-scores and volume relative to open interest - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Collar strategies have defined risk but require understanding of exercise and assignment. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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About Keurig Dr Pepper: Keurig Dr Pepper is a leading beverage company in North America with a portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands, operating through U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments with annual revenue exceeding $15 billion in the Consumer Staples sector.