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By Ainvest in options-flow —

HIMS: $8M Put Close Detected (Nov 12)

Someone just dropped $8M on HIMS options. Someone just bought $8 MILLION worth of HIMS puts at 12:29:20 today - protecting a position ahead of massive catalysts in Q1 2026! This defensive. Full analysis inside.

HIMS $8M Put Buy - Hedging Telehealth Revolution Before FDA Showdown!

📅 November 12, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just bought $8 MILLION worth of HIMS puts at 12:29:20 today - protecting a position ahead of massive catalysts in Q1 2026! This defensive trade bought 4,800 contracts of $55 strike puts expiring December 19th, striking 41% above current price while the stock trades at $39.01. With HIMS up +83.4% YTD despite Amazon competition and critical FDA GLP-1 compounding deadlines looming in February-May 2025, smart money is buying insurance on the telehealth darling. Translation: Institutional players hedging before binary regulatory events that could reshape the business!

📊 Company Overview

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform disrupting traditional healthcare delivery:
- Market Cap: $9.34 Billion
- Industry: Services - Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine
- Current Price: $39.01 (off 46% from $72.98 all-time high in February 2025)
- Primary Business: Telehealth subscriptions for erectile dysfunction, hair loss, skin care, mental health, weight loss (including compounded GLP-1 drugs), serving 2.4M subscribers across all 50 states and expanding to Europe

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 12, 2025 @ 12:29:20):

Time Symbol Side Buy/Sell Type Strike Expiration Premium Volume OI Size Spot Option Price
12:29:20 HIMS MID BUY PUT $55 2025-12-19 $8M 4.8K 14K 4,800 $39.01 $16.65

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a defensive hedge with an unusual twist - the $55 strike is 41% ABOVE current price! Here's what went down:

  • 💸 Substantial premium paid: $8M ($16.65 per contract × 4,800 contracts)
  • 🎯 Deep out-of-the-money protection: $55 strike provides insurance if stock somehow rallies then collapses
  • ⏰ Strategic timing: 37 days to expiration captures Q4 earnings (Feb 24), FDA semaglutide deadline (Feb 21), and FDA tirzepatide deadline (Feb 18)
  • 📊 Moderate size: 4,800 contracts represents 480,000 shares worth ~$18.7M
  • 🏦 Collar component?: This OTM put structure suggests part of a complex hedge, likely paired with short puts at lower strikes or long stock position

What's really happening here:
This trader likely owns a LARGE HIMS position that they've ridden from lower levels. The $55 puts struck 41% above market seems counterintuitive UNLESS this is part of a collar strategy. They may have sold $55 calls against their stock and are now buying $55 puts to protect against a scenario where stock rallies on good news (Q4 earnings beat, FDA clarity) then crashes on subsequent bad news (Amazon competition intensifies, regulatory restrictions).

Alternatively, this could be hedging a short put position - if they sold naked puts at $35-40 strikes betting on support, these $55 puts provide protection against explosive upside that would make those short puts profitable but leave them unhedged if stock subsequently collapses.

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (28,116x average size) - This happens NEVER! The Z-score of 2,391.78 is literally off the charts. We've seen ZERO trades of this magnitude in HIMS history. This is a size comparable to a small hedge fund's entire options allocation to one position.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

HIMS YTD Performance

Hims & Hers is up +83.4% YTD with current price of $39.01, though well off its February 2025 all-time high of $72.98 (down 46% from peak). The chart tells a rollercoaster story of explosive growth followed by brutal correction.

Key observations:
- 🚀 Explosive rally: Surged from $20s to $73 in early 2025 on GLP-1 momentum
- 📉 Severe correction: Lost 46% from ATH as Amazon competition announced (November) and regulatory concerns mounted
- 🎢 High volatility: Sharp moves characteristic of growth stocks with binary catalysts
- 📊 Recent stabilization: Trading around $38-40 range suggesting consolidation before next major catalyst
- ⚠️ 52-week range: $19.15 - $72.98 shows this stock can move 3-4x in either direction

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

HIMS Gamma Support/Resistance Levels

Current Price: $38.95

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price magnets and barriers around current levels:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $38 - Immediate support with 5.1B total gamma exposure (dealers will defend this level)
- $37 - Strong floor with 6.9B gamma (strongest nearby support!)
- $36 - Secondary support at 2.0B gamma
- $35 - Major structural floor with 5.0B gamma (psychological round number + options concentration)
- $30 - Deep support at 5.1B gamma (break here would be catastrophic)

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $40 - Immediate ceiling with 14.0B gamma (STRONGEST RESISTANCE - dealers will sell into rallies)
- $42 - Secondary resistance at 13.1B gamma (massive barrier just above)
- $45 - Major resistance zone with 9.8B gamma (rally stalls here)
- $50 - Extended resistance at 5.5B gamma
- $55 - Deep resistance at 3.9B gamma (EXACTLY where this put is struck!)

What this means for traders:
HIMS is trading right below the strongest resistance at $40 (14.0B gamma - the single largest level on the board). Market makers holding massive call positions will hedge by selling stock as price approaches $40, creating a natural ceiling. The $37-38 support zone should provide a floor under normal conditions.

Notice the $55 put strike? It sits at a gamma level with 3.9B total exposure - this is where dealers have positioned for upside scenarios. If HIMS rallies to $55 (41% gain), these puts would be worthless but would have provided protection during the journey. This strongly suggests the put buyer expects volatility in BOTH directions, not just downside.

Net GEX Bias: Slightly Bullish (higher call gamma in nearby strikes) - But positioning is complex with resistance overhead limiting upside potential.

Implied Move Analysis

HIMS Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (Nov 14 - 2 days): ±$1.97 (±5.0%) → Range: $37.62 - $41.24
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (Nov 21 - 9 days): ±$3.39 (±8.6%) → Range: $36.04 - $42.82
  • 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 37 days - THIS TRADE!): ±$6.65 (±16.9%) → Range: $33.28 - $47.78
  • 📅 Yearly LEAPS (Dec 2026 - 401 days): ±$24.08 (±61.1%) → Range: $13.94 - $64.92

Translation for regular folks:
Options traders are pricing in a 5% move ($2) by Friday and an 8.6% move ($3.40) through November OPEX. But here's where it gets interesting: by the December 19th expiration (when this trade expires), the market expects a MASSIVE 17% move ($6.65). That's huge volatility for a $9.3B market cap stock!

The December expiration has an upper range of $47.78 - still well below the $55 put strike. For these $55 puts to have intrinsic value at expiration, HIMS would need to rally 41% to $55+ THEN collapse back below $55. The market thinks there's less than 10% probability of that happening based on current pricing.

Key insight: The put buyer is paying $16.65 for protection that's almost entirely time value (zero intrinsic value). They're betting on explosive moves - likely anticipating Q4 earnings beat drives stock toward $50-55 range, then regulatory/competitive concerns cause collapse. This is NOT a simple bearish bet - it's a sophisticated volatility play.

🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts (Next 60 Days)

Q4 2024 & Full-Year Earnings - February 24, 2025 (104 DAYS AWAY!) 📊

HIMS will report fiscal Q4 and full-year 2024 results on Monday, February 24, 2025 after market close. This is THE catalyst within the December 19th options window. Wall Street consensus and expectations:

What to watch: HIMS has massively beaten expectations in recent quarters - Q3 2024 revenue of $401.6M beat by delivering 77% growth. However, at current $39 price (down from $73 ATH), the market has already priced in significant risk. A beat may not be enough - guidance for Q1 2025 and commentary on FDA compounding deadlines will be CRITICAL.

Historical performance: In Q3 earnings (Nov 4, 2024), HIMS reported $401.6M revenue vs $226.7M in Q3 2023, with net income of $75.6M and Adjusted EBITDA of $51.1M. Stock initially rallied but has since given back gains due to competitive threats.

🚀 Critical Near-Term Catalysts (Q1 2025)

FDA GLP-1 Compounding Deadlines - FEBRUARY-MAY 2025 SHOWDOWN! ⚖️

This is THE BINARY CATALYST that makes or breaks the investment thesis. FDA decisions on compounded GLP-1 drugs will determine if HIMS can continue selling $199/month semaglutide:

Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) Timeline:
- February 21, 2025: FDA determined semaglutide shortage is resolved
- April 22, 2025: Prohibition on compounded semaglutide for state-licensed pharmacies
- May 22, 2025: Deadline for outsourcing facilities to cease compounding
- Revenue at Risk: $225M in annual GLP-1 revenue (15-20% of total)

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) Timeline:
- February 18, 2025: Deadline for state-licensed pharmacies to cease tirzepatide compounding
- March 19, 2025: Final deadline for outsourcing facilities
- Court Ruling: District court denied preliminary injunction on March 5, 2025, upholding FDA's shortage resolution

HIMS Response Strategy: The company intends to continue through "personalization" of doses, a legally permitted approach to mitigate side effects. However, this remains LEGALLY UNTESTED and could face FDA enforcement.

Why this matters for the $55 put trade: These deadlines fall EXACTLY within the December 19th expiration window. If FDA aggressively enforces restrictions or HIMS personalization strategy fails legal scrutiny, the stock could collapse from $40 to $20-25 range (losing 50%+ as GLP-1 growth story unravels). The $55 put provides protection if stock rallies into earnings THEN crashes on regulatory clarity.

Amazon One Medical Competitive Threat - November 2024 ⚠️

Amazon launched expanded telehealth services in November 2024, directly competing with HIMS's core offerings:

Ongoing impact: Amazon hasn't yet launched GLP-1 offerings, but if they do with discounted pricing, it would be devastating. The 22% stock decline shows market is VERY nervous about Amazon's scale advantages.

🏥 Product Expansion Catalysts (2025-2026)

Menopause/Perimenopause Specialty - October 2025 Launch 💊

Major women's health expansion announced October 15, 2025:

European Market Expansion via Zava Acquisition - 2025-2026 🌍

International expansion announced June 2025:

Generic Liraglutide Launch - 2025 💉

Alternative GLP-1 product launched to diversify weight loss portfolio:

  • 💊 Product: Generic liraglutide at $299/month (older, less effective GLP-1)
  • 🛡️ Strategic Hedge: Provides regulatory insurance if compounded semaglutide/tirzepatide access ends
  • ⚠️ Efficacy Concern: Liraglutide is less effective than newer GLP-1 agonists (patients may not adopt)

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Novo Nordisk Partnership Termination - June 2025 💔

Devastating partnership loss that sent stock plunging:

Potential Eli Lilly Partnership - Status Unclear 🤷

DEA Telemedicine Rule Uncertainty - Extended Through 2025 📜

Separate regulatory risk beyond FDA compounding issues:

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts through December 19th expiration:

📈 Bull Case (25% probability)

Target: $47-$50

How we get there:
- 💪 Q4 earnings CRUSH with revenue toward $480M (beating $470M consensus)
- 📈 Subscriber growth accelerates beyond 2.0M to 2.3M+ driven by menopause specialty launch
- 💵 ARPU continues climbing toward $80/month (from $73 in Q3)
- 🎯 Q1 2025 guidance surprises to upside at $480-500M revenue
- 🤝 Announces brand-name GLP-1 partnership with Eli Lilly (discounted Zepbound access for cash patients)
- 📊 FDA provides CLARITY that personalized compounding can continue (removes regulatory overhang)
- 🌍 European expansion (Zava) showing strong early traction
- 📈 Breakout above $40 gamma resistance on sustained buying triggers rally to $45-50

Key metrics needed:
- GLP-1 revenue growth sustaining despite regulatory uncertainty
- Evidence that Amazon competition NOT impacting subscriber acquisition
- Proof that business can scale beyond GLP-1 dependency

Probability assessment: Only 25% because it requires MULTIPLE positives to align - earnings beat + regulatory clarity + competitive resilience. Gamma resistance at $40-42 creates mechanical headwinds. Stock already down 46% from ATH, so "good news" may already be priced in at $39.

🎯 Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $33-$42 range (CHOPPY CONSOLIDATION)

Most likely scenario:
- ✅ Solid Q4 earnings meeting/slightly beating expectations ($470-475M revenue)
- 📱 Subscriber growth continues but decelerating (2.1-2.2M range)
- ⚖️ FDA guidance remains AMBIGUOUS on compounding personalization (uncertainty persists)
- 🤖 No major positive or negative news on Eli Lilly/Novo partnerships
- 📊 Q1 2025 guidance in-line ($450-470M), not exciting but not disappointing
- 🔄 Amazon competition acknowledged but not yet impacting metrics materially
- 💤 Menopause/Europe launches progressing but too early to show significant revenue
- 🎢 Trading within gamma support ($37) and resistance ($40-42) bands through December
- 📉 Implied volatility remains elevated (17% for December) reflecting uncertainty

This is the most likely outcome: Stock consolidates around $35-40 range as investors wait for CLARITY on February FDA deadlines. The $55 puts expire worthless, but the put buyer doesn't care - they paid $16.65 for insurance during a period of maximum uncertainty.

Why 50% probability: No clear catalyst to drive meaningful move in either direction before December expiration. Earnings likely already priced in. FDA clarity won't come until February. Amazon impact takes time to show up in metrics.

📉 Bear Case (25% probability)

Target: $25-$33 (BREAK SUPPORT!)

What could go wrong:
- 😰 Q4 earnings miss or weak Q1 guidance disappoints at current valuation
- 🚨 FDA issues enforcement warning on "personalized" compounding strategy BEFORE February deadlines
- 📉 Management commentary on earnings call acknowledges $225M GLP-1 revenue at risk with no clear mitigation plan
- 💰 Amazon competition data shows meaningful subscriber slowdown (especially in hair loss/ED core verticals)
- 🏥 Generic liraglutide adoption proves weak (patients don't want inferior GLP-1 at $299)
- 🌍 European expansion stumbles (Zava integration issues, unfamiliar regulations)
- ⚖️ Eli Lilly partnership talks fall apart (Lilly unwilling to offer discount pricing)
- 💸 Operating margins compress as customer acquisition costs spike fighting Amazon
- 🔨 Break below $37 gamma support triggers cascade selling to $33, then $30

Critical support levels:
- 🛡️ $37: Strong gamma floor (6.9B) - MUST HOLD or momentum shifts bearish
- 🛡️ $35: Secondary support (5.0B gamma) - psychological round number
- 🛡️ $30: Deep support (5.1B gamma) - disaster scenario, back to May 2024 levels

Probability assessment: 25% because while risks are REAL and significant (FDA, Amazon, partnerships), HIMS has demonstrated exceptional execution historically. Q3 2024 revenue of $401.6M (up 77% YoY) with net income of $75.6M shows this is a profitable, rapidly growing business. Management has navigated challenges before. Bears need MULTIPLE negative catalysts to align.

For the $55 put trade: In bear case where stock drops to $30, these $55 puts are STILL worthless at expiration (OTM by $25). This confirms the trade is NOT a simple bearish bet but rather a complex hedge against volatility or part of a collar structure.

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait for Post-Earnings FDA Clarity

Play: Stay on sidelines until after February 24th earnings AND FDA deadline clarity

Why this works:
- ⏰ December 19th expiration happens BEFORE both major catalysts (Q4 earnings Feb 24, FDA deadlines Feb 18-21)
- 💸 Implied volatility elevated at 17% - options expensive
- 📊 Stock down 46% from ATH but still up 83% YTD - unclear if more downside or recovery ahead
- 🎯 Better entry likely after binary events resolve - either $45+ (bull case) or $30-33 (bear case)
- 🤔 This massive $8M put buy signals sophisticated players are WORRIED - why fight the tape?

Action plan:
- 👀 Watch December 19th OPEX for positioning clues (where does stock settle after options expiration?)
- 🎯 Monitor Q4 earnings February 24th closely for: 1) GLP-1 revenue trajectory, 2) FDA strategy commentary, 3) Amazon competition impact, 4) Q1 2025 guidance
- ✅ Wait for FDA clarity on "personalized compounding" legal strategy (February-March deadlines)
- 📊 Look for entry around $33-35 (support zone) if bear case plays out, or $42-44 if bull case confirmed
- ⚠️ Avoid catching falling knife if FDA aggressively restricts compounding

Risk level: Minimal (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

Expected outcome: Preserve capital during period of maximum uncertainty. Get clarity on business model sustainability. Enter at better risk/reward after binary events resolve.

⚖️ Balanced: Defined-Risk Put Spread (Copy The Hedge Structure)

Play: After earnings, sell put spread around support levels

Structure: Buy $37 puts, Sell $33 puts (February 20, 2026 expiration - captures Q4 earnings + FDA deadlines)

Why this works:
- 📊 Defined risk spread ($4 wide = $400 max risk per spread)
- 🎯 Targets gamma support zone at $37 (6.9B) and $33 (near $30 support)
- ⏰ February expiration captures ALL major catalysts: Q4 earnings (Feb 24), FDA semaglutide deadline (Feb 21), FDA tirzepatide deadline (Feb 18)
- 🛡️ Profits if HIMS trades down toward support but loses if stock holds above $37
- 💰 Reasonable credit collection (~$1.50-2.00 per spread post-IV crush)

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Collect ~$1.50-2.00 credit per spread
- 📈 Max profit: $150-200 if HIMS below $33 at February expiration
- 📉 Max loss: $200-250 if HIMS above $37 (defined and limited)
- 🎯 Breakeven: ~$35.00-35.50
- 📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:0.75 (acceptable for defensive positioning)

Entry timing:
- ⏰ Enter AFTER December 19th options expiration (avoid current elevated IV)
- 🎯 Only enter if stock trading $38-40 range (gives room to work down to strikes)
- ❌ Skip if stock already below $35 (spread too close to ATM)

Position sizing: Risk only 2-3% of portfolio (this is directional speculation on support levels)

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, bearish tilt) | Skill level: Intermediate

Why this mirrors institutional thinking: The massive put buy suggests smart money expects volatility around these levels. This spread structure captures downside if their thesis plays out while limiting risk.

🚀 Aggressive: Volatility Straddle - Bet on BIG MOVE Either Way (ADVANCED ONLY!)

Play: Buy straddle betting on post-earnings explosive move exceeding implied

Structure: Buy $40 calls + Buy $40 puts (February 20, 2026 expiration)

Why this could work:
- 💥 Implied move only 17% but catalysts suggest potential for 30-40% move either direction
- 🎰 Betting the Street is UNDERPRICING the binary nature of FDA decisions
- 📊 At current valuation, stock could EXPLODE to $55-60 (FDA clarity, partnership announced) OR collapse to $25-28 (GLP-1 access lost)
- 🚀 Captures both Q4 earnings AND FDA deadlines in single position
- ⚡ Only need stock to move >20% either way to profit (exceed $48 or below $32)
- 📈 Maximum gamma exposure at $40 creates explosive potential for gap moves

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):
- 💸 EXPENSIVE: Straddle costs ~$12-14 ($1,200-1,400 per straddle)
- ⏰ TIME DECAY KILLER: Theta burns -$40-50/day as expiration approaches
- 😱 IV CRUSH: Even if stock moves 15%, IV collapse could still result in LOSS on both legs
- 📊 Two-way risk: Stock could stay in $35-42 range (base case) and you lose entire premium
- 🎢 Need 30%+ move to breakeven after IV crush factored in
- ⚠️ Earnings could be "good but not amazing" - stock gaps to $42-44 (only 10% move) and straddle loses 40-50%

Estimated P&L:
- 💰 Cost: ~$12-14 per straddle (using Feb 20 expiration to capture all catalysts)
- 📈 Profit scenario: Stock moves to $55+ or $26- (35%+ move) = $15-20 gain (100-140% ROI)
- 🚀 Home run: Stock moves to $60+ or $20- (40%+ move) = $20-25+ gain (150%+ ROI)
- 📉 Loss scenario: Stock ends $35-45 range = lose $8-13 (60-90% loss)
- 💀 Total loss: Stock flat at $40 = lose entire $12-14 (100% loss)

Breakeven points:
- 📈 Upside breakeven: ~$52-54 (need 35% rally)
- 📉 Downside breakeven: ~$26-28 (need 30% drop)

CRITICAL WARNING - DO NOT attempt unless you:
- ✅ Understand FDA compounding rules and can assess regulatory probability
- ✅ Can afford to lose ENTIRE premium (very real possibility in base case scenario)
- ✅ Understand you're betting AGAINST the options market's implied probability
- ✅ Can monitor position daily and take profits quickly if big move occurs
- ✅ Accept that even if you're RIGHT on direction, IV crush could cause loss
- ⏰ Plan to close position within 48 hours post-earnings (don't hold to expiration)

Risk level: EXTREME (can lose 100% of premium) | Skill level: Advanced only

Probability of profit: ~35% (lower than implied 50% due to IV crush, but higher than simple directional trades if catalysts deliver big moves)

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just spent $8 MILLION on out-of-the-money HIMS puts struck 41% ABOVE current price. This isn't a simple bearish bet - it's a sophisticated hedge against complex scenarios playing out over the next 37 days into December expiration, with even bigger catalysts (Q4 earnings, FDA deadlines) just beyond the horizon in February 2025.

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Sophisticated player expects EXTREME VOLATILITY through Q1 2026 (not just downside, but big moves in both directions)
- 💰 The $55 strike OTM structure suggests collar hedging or protection against "rally then collapse" scenario
- ⚖️ They're worried enough about tail risks to pay $16.65/share (43% of stock price!) for protection that has ZERO intrinsic value
- 📊 The unprecedented 28,116x average size shows this is a MAJOR institutional position, likely representing multi-hundred-million dollar equity exposure
- ⏰ Timing (December 19 expiration) captures initial volatility but expires BEFORE the two biggest catalysts (Q4 earnings Feb 24, FDA deadlines Feb 18-21)

This is NOT a "sell everything" signal - it's a "buckle up for massive volatility" signal.

If you own HIMS:
- ✅ Consider trimming 20-30% at $38-40 levels (lock in 80%+ YTD gains, reduce exposure)
- 📊 If holding through catalysts, set MENTAL STOP at $33 (break below $35-37 support = game over)
- ⏰ Don't get greedy - up 83% YTD is EXCELLENT. Protecting profits is smart given binary FDA risk.
- 🎯 Could add back shares if: 1) FDA provides clarity on personalized compounding (regulatory risk removed), OR 2) Stock crashes to $30-33 on panic (support zone with business model intact)
- 🛡️ Consider buying protective puts at $37 strike if holding large position through February (copy institutional hedging strategy at reasonable cost post-IV crush)

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ⏰ December 19, 2025 - Watch options expiration and positioning
- ⏰ February 18-21, 2025 - FDA compounding deadlines (THE BINARY CATALYST)
- ⏰ February 24, 2025 after close - Q4 FY2024 earnings report
- 🎯 WAIT for clarity on these catalysts before establishing position
- 📈 Post-earnings pullback to $33-35 support would be attractive IF: 1) FDA allows personalized compounding, 2) Q4 results show Amazon competition not impacting metrics, 3) Brand partnership announced (Lilly or Novo)
- 🚀 Longer-term (6-12 months), European expansion, menopause specialty ($1B Hers revenue target 2026), and diversification beyond GLP-1s are legitimate re-rating catalysts IF regulatory risk resolved
- ⚠️ Current valuation (69.8x P/E) requires PERFECT execution across multiple fronts - no margin for error

If you're bearish:
- 🎯 Wait for FDA enforcement action or negative Q4 earnings before initiating shorts
- 📊 First support at $37 (6.9B gamma), major support at $35 (5.0B gamma), deep support at $30
- ⚠️ Post-February put spreads ($37/$33 or $35/$30) offer defined-risk way to play downside after catalysts
- 📉 Watch for break below $35 - that's the trigger for cascade to $28-30 range
- ⏰ Timing is CRITICAL: Premature bearish positioning risks getting squeezed (36.67% short interest creates explosive upside potential on any good news)

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 December 19, 2025 - Quarterly OPEX, expiration of this $8M put trade
- 📅 February 18, 2025 - FDA tirzepatide compounding deadline for state pharmacies
- 📅 February 21, 2025 - FDA semaglutide shortage resolution effective date
- 📅 February 24, 2025 (Monday) after close - Q4 FY2024 earnings report
- 📅 March 19, 2025 - FDA tirzepatide deadline for outsourcing facilities
- 📅 April 22, 2025 - FDA semaglutide deadline for state pharmacies
- 📅 May 5, 2025 - Q1 FY2025 earnings (post-FDA deadline, will show impact)
- 📅 May 22, 2025 - FDA semaglutide deadline for outsourcing facilities

Final verdict: HIMS's long-term digital health story remains INCREDIBLY compelling - 2.4M subscribers growing 38% YoY, ARPU increasing 52.7% to $84/month, expanding to Europe, launching menopause specialty targeting $1B Hers revenue. BUT, at 69.8x P/E after 83% YTD gain with binary FDA risk in February and Amazon competition ramping, the risk/reward is NO LONGER favorable for aggressive positioning right now.

The $8M institutional put buy is a CLEAR signal: smart money is hedging at current levels before major catalysts resolve. This doesn't mean HIMS crashes - it means the next 3 months are going to be EXTREMELY volatile with potential for 30-40% moves in either direction. Position sizing and risk management are CRITICAL.

Be patient. Let February catalysts clear. Look for better entry points at $33-35 (bear case) or $45-50 (bull case). The telehealth revolution will still be here in 3 months, and you'll sleep better at night knowing you didn't catch a falling knife OR chase an overextended rally.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. Protect your capital. 💪

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 28,116x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent HIMS history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. FDA regulatory decisions create binary event risk with potential for 40%+ moves either direction. The $55 put strike 41% above current price suggests complex hedging strategy not applicable to most retail traders. Short interest of 36.67% creates potential for violent short squeezes on positive news.

About Hims & Hers Health, Inc.: Hims & Hers, launched in 2017, is a telehealth platform that connects patients and healthcare providers to offer treatment options for specialties like erectile dysfunction, hair loss, skin care, mental health, and weight loss. Its offerings include generic, branded, and compounded prescription drugs as well as over-the-counter medicines, cosmetics, and supplements. The platform, which has more than 2 million subscribers, is available in all 50 states and certain European markets like the UK, with a market cap of $9.34 billion in the Services - Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine industry.

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