GOOG - $52.6M Option Wave Before Earnings

October 28, 2025 | Unusual Activity Detected

The Quick Take

Someone just unleashed $52.6M in options activity on Alphabet (GOOG) at 10:48:29 AM - and here's the plot twist: 93.7% of it is call selling! This massive institutional play collected premium across strikes from $240-$305, with the biggest chunk ($13M) hitting the deep in-the-money $240 November calls. With earnings tomorrow after close, smart money is positioning for defined-range action. Translation: Big players think GOOG has run too hot too fast!

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Company Overview

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google, deriving most revenue from advertising sales:

• Market Cap: $3.26 Trillion
• Industry: Services - Computer Programming, Data Processing, etc.
• Primary Business: Search advertising, Google Cloud, YouTube, Waymo autonomous vehicles, and AI infrastructure
• Current Price: $267.66 (trading near all-time highs)

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The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 28, 2025 @ 10:48:29):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:48:29	GOOG	BID	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$13M	$240	4.4K	11K	4,322	$267.66	$30.70
10:48:29	GOOG	MID	SELL	CALL	2026-01-16	$12M	$280	9.8K	6K	8,730	$267.66	$13.90
10:48:29	GOOG	MID	BUY	CALL	2026-02-20	$11M	$285	6.7K	8.4K	6,538	$267.66	$16.80
10:48:29	GOOG	MID	SELL	CALL	2026-01-16	$5.8M	$305	8.8K	487	8,730	$267.66	$6.70
10:48:29	GOOG	BID	SELL	CALL	2025-11-21	$5.7M	$260	3.7K	8.9K	3,480	$267.66	$16.25
10:48:29	GOOG	BID	SELL	PUT	2026-01-16	$3.3M	$240	5.3K	2.1K	5,240	$267.66	$6.25
10:48:29	GOOG	BID	SELL	CALL	2026-02-20	$1.8M	$285	7.8K	8.4K	1,092	$267.66	$16.75

Total Activity: $52.6M premium across 7 trades

What This Actually Means

This is sophisticated premium collection ahead of earnings! The institutional player:

• Collected $41.6M by selling calls across multiple strikes and expirations
• Spent $11M buying protective calls at $285 strike (February expiration)
• Net premium collected: $30.6M (that's instant profit if positioned correctly)
• Call-to-Put Ratio: 14.94:1 - overwhelmingly call-focused activity

Strategy Breakdown:
- The $240 Nov calls ($13M) are deep ITM - likely covered call writing or closing existing positions
- The $280-$305 calls sold are betting GOOG won't break dramatically higher
- The $285 calls bought ($11M) provide upside protection - classic calendar spread logic
- Minimal put selling ($3.3M) shows no fear of downside

Unusual Score: EXTREME (5,928x average size) - This is unprecedented! Z-score of 309.93 means we've seen only 4 larger trades in the past 30 days. This happens maybe a few times a year!

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Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

Alphabet is absolutely crushing it in 2025 with +42% YTD performance, making it one of the best-performing Magnificent Seven stocks! According to CNBC, this marks the sharpest rally in 20 years.

Key observations:
- Recent breakout: Trading at $267.66, just shy of the all-time high of $271.38 hit recently
- Momentum surge: Up 52% over the past 52 weeks with accelerating pace in Q4
- Regulatory clarity: September 2025 antitrust ruling was a best-case outcome - Google keeps Chrome and Android, maintains Apple deal
- Multiple catalysts converging: AI leadership, cloud growth, robotaxi expansion all firing simultaneously

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $268.71

The gamma data reveals critical battle zones that perfectly explain this options activity:

Resistance Levels (Call Gamma - Orange bars above price):
- $270 (0.5% away): Immediate resistance with 11.91M gamma - this is the psychological round number
- $275 (2.3% away): Secondary wall with 9.21M gamma
- $280 (4.2% away): Major resistance zone with 10.85M gamma - aligns with sold calls!
- $285 (6.1% away): Heavy resistance at 16.14M gamma - explains the protective call buying here
- $290 (7.9% away): Additional barrier with 15.08M gamma
- $300 (11.6% away): Psychological level with 7.00M gamma

Support Levels (Put Gamma - Blue bars below price):
- $260 (3.2% away): Strongest support with 10.53M net gamma - major floor
- $255 (5.1% away): Secondary support with 2.80M net gamma
- $250 (7.0% away): Strong floor with 6.02M net gamma
- $240 (10.7% away): Deep support at 2.40M net gamma - aligns with sold puts!

Net Gamma Bias: Bullish (150.27M call gamma vs 44.29M put gamma)

This gamma structure shows massive resistance building from $270-$300, which perfectly validates the call selling strategy! Market makers will be selling into rallies above these strikes, creating natural ceilings.

Implied Move Analysis

Options Market Expectations:

• Weekly (Oct 31): ±5.51% move = $253-$283 range (3 days)
• Monthly OPEX (Nov 21): ±7.41% move = $245-$288 range (24 days)
• Quarterly (Dec 19): ±9.53% move = $236-$294 range (52 days)

Key Insight: The November monthly range of $245-$288 encompasses ALL the sold call strikes ($280, $285, $305), suggesting the institutional player believes GOOG will stay within implied boundaries!

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Catalysts

Immediate Catalysts

Q3 2025 Earnings - October 29, 2025 (TOMORROW After Close)

This is THE catalyst everyone's positioning for! According to MarketPulse, GOOG could cross the $100 billion quarterly revenue milestone for the first time!

Consensus Estimates:
- Revenue: $99.75-$99.9B (13-13.4% YoY growth) - sources: MarketPulse, Yahoo Finance
- EPS: $2.26-$2.28 (7-8% YoY growth) - sources: Benzinga, MarketPulse
- Google Cloud Revenue: $14.66B (29-32% YoY growth) - sources: ainvest, Yahoo Finance
- Advertising Revenue: $72.45B (10% YoY growth) - source: Yahoo Finance

Why this matters: GOOG has beaten earnings estimates in nine consecutive quarters with an average 15.96% surprise. The options market is pricing in about 5.5% move - but history suggests bigger moves are possible!

AI Leadership & Expansion

Gemini Enterprise Launch (October 2025)

According to Google Cloud's blog, Google just launched Gemini Enterprise - a comprehensive agentic AI platform for businesses. CNBC reports major enterprise clients including KPMG, TCS, Vodafone, and Virgin Voyages are already adopting it.

Key features and validation:
- Specialized agents for Deep Research, NotebookLM, data analytics - source: Google Cloud Blog
- Over 400 million Gemini users already - source: TradingKey
- AI Overviews serves over 2 billion monthly users (up from 1.5B in Q1) - source: TradingKey
- Major partnerships with KPMG and TCS

Gemini AI Competition Success

Yahoo Finance reports Gemini AI recently won a gold medal at a major international AI competition - historic milestone validating Google's AI leadership against competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Gemini App Redesign - TikTok-Style Feed

According to Morningstar via MarketWatch, Google is testing a redesigned Gemini interface with a TikTok-style scrollable feed that could significantly boost user engagement and monetization. This multimodal chatbot approach is shaping up as the future of AI assistants and could drive viral adoption.

Cloud Infrastructure & TPU Breakthrough

Google Cloud Growth Acceleration

Explosive growth metrics according to Yahoo Finance and CNBC:

• Q2 2025 Cloud Revenue: $13.6B (32% YoY growth) - source: CNBC
• Cloud backlog: Reached $106B in Q2, expecting $110B in Q3 (15% QoQ increase) - sources: CNBC, IG
• Operating margin improving: Now at 20.7% - source: CNBC
• 2025 CapEx guidance: Raised to $85 billion (up from $75B) with 2026 projections at $111B - sources: CNBC, ainvest

Major TPU Commercialization Breakthrough

The massive multi-billion dollar TPU deal with Anthropic (deploying 1 million TPUs to train Claude AI models) validates Google's decade-long investment in custom AI silicon, per ainvest coverage and TradingKey analysis. This creates a competitive moat against Nvidia in AI hardware and represents a major inflection point for TPU commercialization after years of internal-only use.

Search Dominance Despite AI Disruption

Search Remains King

Despite AI cannibalization concerns, TradingKey analysis shows:

• Google holds 90.4% global search market share (Bing: 4.08%) - source: TradingKey
• AI Overviews are expanding search usage, not replacing it - AI integration enhances keyword-based ad monetization - source: TradingKey
• Search ad revenue grew 12% YoY to $54.2B in Q2 with similar growth expected in Q3 - sources: Morningstar via MarketWatch, ainvest

Waymo Robotaxi Scaling & Global Expansion

Rapid Domestic Scaling

The Driverless Digest reports Waymo is rapidly scaling autonomous ride-hailing:

• Currently providing 250,000+ trips per week across 5 major US cities (Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta) - source: The Driverless Digest
• Completed over 10 million paid rides and 100 million autonomous miles - source: The Driverless Digest
• Building 239,000 sq ft Phoenix facility to expand fleet from 1,500 to 3,500 vehicles - sources: CNET, The Driverless Digest
• Additional launches planned in Miami, Nashville, Denver, Seattle, Dallas, and Washington D.C. in 2026 - source: The Driverless Digest

International Expansion - European Beachhead

According to CNBC and CNET:
- Expanding to London (2026 launch) as first European market - represents major international validation
- Partnership with Hyundai to integrate Waymo Driver into Ioniq 5 SUVs - source: CNET

Waymo's $45B valuation represents significant optionality for Alphabet's future revenue diversification beyond advertising - source: The Driverless Digest

YouTube Monetization Evolution

Continued Revenue Growth

YouTube continues showing strong momentum with 13% YoY ad revenue growth to $9.8B in Q2 per ainvest coverage. YouTube Shorts monetization is approaching parity with traditional long-form videos in several markets, unlocking further revenue expansion.

Recently Completed - Major Overhangs Removed

September 2025 Antitrust Ruling - Best Case Outcome

According to CNN, Reuters, and The Street:

• Google will NOT be forced to divest Chrome or Android - source: CNN
• Can continue paying Apple for default search placement (worth $61B annually in gross search revenue) - source: NTU
• Must share some search data with competitors but maintains core business structure - source: Reuters

This "best-case outcome" removed a major overhang and allowed investors to focus on fundamentals, contributing to the recent 42% YTD surge - source: The Street

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Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts:

Bull Case (30% probability)

Target: $285-$300

Catalysts:
- Earnings beat on all metrics with $100B+ revenue surprise
- Google Cloud growth accelerates beyond 32% with improved margins
- Gemini Enterprise customer wins exceed expectations
- Analyst upgrades following earnings - JPMorgan already raised target to $300, joined by Oppenheimer ($300) and KeyBanc ($300)

Technical drivers:
- Break above $270 gamma resistance with momentum
- Implied move upper range of $288 provides runway
- Major call gamma wall at $285-$290 would be tested

Risk to options strategy: The $280-$305 sold calls would face pressure, but the $285 protective calls limit losses.

Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $260-$280 range

Scenario:
- In-line earnings beat with no major surprises
- AI spending concerns temper enthusiasm - CapEx at $85B in 2025 per CNBC
- Stock consolidates after 42% YTD run
- Trades within gamma support ($260) and first resistance ($280)

Technical drivers:
- Implied move weekly range of $253-$283 contains price
- Gamma levels create natural ceiling at $280
- Put gamma at $260 provides strong floor

Perfect scenario for this spread strategy! All sold calls expire worthless, premium collected is pure profit.

Bear Case (20% probability)

Target: $245-$260

Catalysts:
- Earnings disappoint on Search revenue growth
- CapEx guidance increases beyond $85B, pressuring margins
- Competition from OpenAI ChatGPT Atlas browser gains traction per Morningstar analysis
- Broader market correction affecting mega-cap tech

Technical drivers:
- Break below $260 gamma support
- Implied move lower range of $253 would be tested
- Put gamma at $250 provides secondary floor

Strategy performance: All sold calls profit, protective puts at $240 limit downside exposure.

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Trading Ideas

Conservative: Follow the Premium Collectors

Play: Bull put spread (November expiration)

Sell $255 puts, buy $245 puts

Setup:
- Credit collected: ~$2.50 per spread
- Max risk: $10 per spread (width minus credit)
- Max profit: $2.50 per spread
- Breakeven: $252.50

Why this works: Aligns with gamma support at $255 and implied move lower bound at $253. You profit if GOOG stays above $252.50 through Nov expiration. Smart money is betting on range-bound action, so collect premium in the same direction!

Risk: If earnings tank and GOOG drops below $245, you lose the full spread width. Size accordingly - this is defined risk.

Balanced: Iron Condor the Uncertainty

Play: Iron condor (November expiration)

Sell $255/$245 put spread + Sell $285/$295 call spread

Setup:
- Total credit: ~$4.50 per condor
- Max risk: $10 per condor (minus credit = $5.50 net risk)
- Max profit: $4.50 per condor
- Profit range: $250-$290 at expiration

Why this works: Captures premium on both sides while staying within implied move boundaries ($245-$288). Gamma resistance at $285 and support at $255 create natural boundaries. With IV likely to crush post-earnings, time decay works in your favor.

Risk: Large move in either direction breaches your wings. If GOOG rockets past $295 or crashes below $245, you take max loss. Manage at 50% profit or 2x loss.

Aggressive: Counter-Trade the Call Sellers

Play: Long calls above sold strikes (December/January expiration)

Buy $290 calls or $295 calls

Setup:
- Cost: ~$8-12 per contract (depends on strike/expiration)
- Max risk: Premium paid
- Max profit: Unlimited above breakeven
- Breakeven: Strike + premium paid

Why this works: If the institutional player is wrong and GOOG blows past earnings expectations, the massive call selling creates a vacuum above $285-$290. Historical data shows GOOG beats by 15.96% on average - if Cloud or AI metrics surprise huge, analyst upgrades to $300+ could fuel a rip.

Risk: Premium evaporates if GOOG stays range-bound or sells off. This is asymmetric risk - small bet for large potential payoff. Only allocate 1-2% of portfolio.

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Risk Factors

Earnings Timing
Tomorrow's earnings could invalidate all technical levels instantly. The 5.5% implied move means anything from $254-$282 is "expected" - but GOOG's history of 15.96% average beats suggests larger moves possible.

CapEx Concerns
CNBC reports Wall Street is hyper-focused on AI infrastructure spending. Google's $85B 2025 CapEx is massive - any increase could pressure margins and spook investors despite revenue growth.

AI Competition
Morningstar analysis highlights OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser and Sora video app as potential Search threats. While Google holds 90.4% market share, AI-native products could disrupt faster than expected.

Valuation Stretch
At $267 after a 42% YTD run, GOOG trades at 24x 2026 projected earnings per analyst consensus. While reasonable for the growth, any disappointment could trigger profit-taking from momentum chasers.

Regulatory Uncertainty
Despite the September best-case ruling, data sharing requirements and potential future antitrust actions remain overhangs. The DOJ could appeal or push for stricter remedies.

IV Crush
Options are priced for big moves ahead of earnings. Post-announcement, implied volatility will collapse 30-50% regardless of direction. If you're long options, you're fighting time decay and vega collapse even if you're right on direction!

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The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $52.6M options wave is sophisticated institutional positioning before Alphabet's biggest earnings test of the year. The overwhelming call selling (93.7% of activity) tells us smart money thinks the 42% YTD rally has priced in the good news.

The gamma data backs this up: Massive resistance at $270-$290 creates natural ceilings where market makers will sell into strength. The implied move of $245-$288 encompasses all the sold call strikes - this trader is betting GOOG stays within predicted boundaries.

But here's the counter-argument: GOOG has beaten estimates for nine straight quarters by 15.96% on average. The Gemini Enterprise launch, TPU commercialization breakthrough, Waymo scaling, and regulatory clarity are ALL new catalysts not fully priced in. If tomorrow's earnings show Cloud growth above 32% or AI monetization inflecting, analyst upgrades to $300+ could breach every resistance level.

If you own GOOG: Consider trimming 25-33% ahead of earnings to lock in gains from the 42% run. Keep core position for long-term AI thesis.

If you're watching: The post-earnings volatility creates opportunity. If GOOG sells off to $255-260 support, that's a gift. If it rips through $285, momentum could carry to $300+ as analysts play catch-up.

If you're trading options: The premium selling strategy makes sense for neutral-to-slightly-bullish outlook. But size appropriately - this is a $3.26 trillion company with binary catalysts tomorrow. Don't bet the farm!

Mark your calendar:
- October 29, 2025 (Tomorrow After Close): Q3 earnings - the $100B revenue milestone test
- November 21, 2025: Monthly OPEX - when the big premium collection positions expire
- Q4 2025: Google Cloud expected to hit $110B backlog, Waymo European expansion

The options market is pricing in a 5.5% move, but history shows GOOG doesn't do "calm" earnings!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The unusual activity described represents institutional positioning and should not be interpreted as a trading signal. Always do your own due diligence and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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About Alphabet (GOOG): Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google, deriving revenue from advertising, cloud computing, YouTube, autonomous vehicles, and AI infrastructure. With a $3.26 trillion market cap, it's the leader in search (90.4% market share) and a fast-growing cloud provider competing with AWS and Azure.