🚀 GLXY Digital Assets Giant: $14.9M Put Hedge on Fresh ATH! 💰
Crypto whale takes profit: $14.9M in put protection after all-time highs. Strategic hedging reveals key support levels. Complete analysis with entry points and gamma framework.
📅 October 24, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected
📊 Company Overview
Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY) is a digital assets and data center infrastructure powerhouse delivering solutions that accelerate progress in finance and artificial intelligence:
- Market Cap: $6.92 Billion
- Industry: Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies
- Current Price: $40.29
- Primary Business: Digital asset trading, asset management, staking, lending, and AI data center infrastructure
Galaxy Digital operates at the intersection of crypto finance and AI infrastructure - think of it as a Wall Street firm reimagined for the digital age, now expanding into the AI data center boom!
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just dropped $14.9M in put protection on Galaxy Digital right after the stock hit all-time highs following record Q3 earnings! This massive institutional hedge at $40.50 and $39 strikes (with the stock trading at $40.29) screams "take profits and protect gains" after the epic +180% YTD rally. Translation: Smart money is locking in gains while staying positioned for more upside!
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
The Tape (October 24, 2025 @ 10:54:00):
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:54:00 | GLXY | MID | BUY | PUT | 2025-10-31 | $8.9M | $40.5 | 40K | 56 | 39,999 | $40.29 | $2.23 |
| 10:54:00 | GLXY | ASK | BUY | PUT | 2025-10-31 | $6M | $39 | 40K | 2.9K | 39,999 | $40.29 | $1.5 |
Total Put Protection: $14.9M in near-term puts expiring October 31st
Option Symbols:
- GLXY20251031P40.5 (at-the-money protection)
- GLXY20251031P39 (slightly out-of-the-money floor)
🤓 What This Actually Means
This is classic institutional profit protection after a massive run! The trader is:
- Buying 40,000 contracts of $40.50 puts at $2.23 each = $8.9M
- Buying 40,000 contracts of $39 puts at $1.50 each = $6M
- Creating a protective collar around the $39-$40.50 zone
- Expiration in just 7 days (October 31st) - this is SHORT-TERM protection
- Hedging roughly $1.6B worth of stock (40K contracts × 100 shares × $40 = $160M)
Why this matters: After stock tripled this year and just hit fresh all-time highs at $40.60, someone's taking $15M of insurance against a short-term pullback. This isn't bearish - it's smart risk management after an epic rally!
Unusual Score: 🌋 VOLCANIC (4,001x average size) - This is unprecedented! We've never seen put protection of this magnitude on GLXY. The average premium is only $2,225 - this $8.9M single trade is literally thousands of times larger than typical activity.
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
YTD Chart Analysis
Galaxy Digital is having an absolutely monster year - up +180% YTD and trading at fresh all-time highs! 🚀
Key observations:
- Parabolic rally: From $14 in January to $40+ today
- Recent breakout: Smashed through $36 resistance after Q3 earnings beat on October 21st
- All-time highs: Just touched $40.60 - literally the highest GLXY has ever traded
- Volume spike: Massive institutional interest following strategic investment announcement
- 52-week range: $13.50 - $40.60 (currently at the tippy top!)
The chart screams "take some chips off the table" - which perfectly explains this massive put hedge!
Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis
Current Price: $40.31
The gamma analysis reveals critical levels that explain this hedging activity:
Support Levels (Blue Bars - Put Gamma):
- 💪 $40.00 (STRONGEST): Net GEX +4.31M - This is the mother of all support levels with 7.2M total gamma
- 🛡️ $37.50: Net GEX -6.66M (put-heavy) - Major floor if we dip below $39
- 🛡️ $39.00: Net GEX -0.79M - Intermediate support
- 🛡️ $38.00: Net GEX -0.44M - Secondary cushion
- 🛡️ $36.00: Net GEX -3.80M - Last line of defense
Resistance Levels (Orange Bars - Call Gamma):
- ⚡ $41.00 (NEAREST): Net GEX +1.05M - First ceiling at 0.7% above current price
- ⚡ $42.00: Net GEX +1.06M - Second resistance at 4.2% above
- ⚡ $45.00: Net GEX +3.92M - Major barrier at 11.6% above (analyst target zone)
What this means:
- Current price sitting RIGHT ON TOP of the $40 support fortress
- Market makers will defend $40 aggressively (positive gamma = they buy dips, sell rips)
- The $41-$42 zone is the next battleground
- Put buying makes perfect sense here - protecting the $40 fortress from the upside
Net GEX Bias: Bullish (+8.45M net call gamma) - Options market still expects upside, but resistance is real above $41
🎪 Catalysts
🔮 Upcoming Events
Q4 2025 Earnings - Expected Q1 2026
- Next earnings call expected January 8-9, 2026
- Q4 2025 full-year results projected for March 30, 2026
- Market will focus on Helios Phase I progress updates
- Digital asset trading volumes into year-end will be critical
- GalaxyOne user adoption metrics will be key
Helios AI Data Center Phase I Launch - H1 2026 (MAJOR CATALYST)
- 133 MW coming online in first half of 2026
- CoreWeave committed to full 800 MW capacity
- Expected to generate $1B+ in average annual revenue over 15-year lease
- This is THE major catalyst for 2026-2027 - first revenue generation from AI infrastructure business
- Will fundamentally transform Galaxy's revenue mix and valuation multiple
Helios Phase II & III Buildout - Throughout 2027
- Phase II: 260 MW delivery throughout 2027
- Phase III: Additional 133 MW completes 800 MW commitment
- Potential expansion to 3.5 GW at full buildout (2.7 GW additional capacity under study)
- Full buildout could position Helios as one of largest AI data center campuses globally
GalaxyOne Retail Platform Scaling - Ongoing
- Launched October 6, 2025 - still brand new!
- 8% APY Galaxy Premium Yield for accredited investors
- 4% APY FDIC-insured cash accounts
- Commission-free trading of 2,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs
- Crypto trading for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Paxos Gold
- User growth metrics in upcoming earnings will be key
- Led by Zac Prince (former BlockFi CEO) - experienced retail crypto leader
- Platform aims to bridge traditional and digital finance
Bitcoin & Crypto Market Catalysts - Ongoing
- Galaxy maintains 17,102+ BTC in treasury holdings as of Q2 2025
- Total net digital asset holdings: ~$1.2 billion
- Strategic conviction in Bitcoin as foundational digital economy asset
- Any Bitcoin rally to $100K+ would significantly benefit trading volumes and treasury value
- Institutional crypto adoption trends favor Galaxy's positioning
Tokenization & Innovation Leadership
- First-ever tokenization of SEC-registered public equity on Solana (September 2025)
- Partnership with Superstate demonstrates Web3 finance innovation
- Positions Galaxy at forefront of blockchain-based securities
✅ Recently Completed (Already Happened)
Record Q3 2025 Results - Announced October 21, 2025
- Net Income: $505M (vs $33.3M loss in Q3 2024) - absolute blowout! 💥
- Adjusted EBITDA: $629M (up 198% from Q2)
- Diluted EPS: $1.01 ($1.12 adjusted) vs $0.38 estimate - crushed expectations by 200%!
- Revenue: $29.2B vs $17.2B estimate
- Total Equity: $3.2B (up 21% QoQ)
- Cash & Stablecoins: $1.9B (up 62% from Q2)
- Record digital asset trading volumes increased 140% QoQ
- Massive $9B Bitcoin transaction (80,000+ BTC) for a client
- 1,532 trading counterparties (up 6% from Q2)
- Average loan book size of $1.8B (up 60% from Q2)
- Assets Under Management (AUM): ~$9 billion
- Assets Under Stake: $3.1 billion
$460M Strategic Investment Closed - October 2025
- 9,027,778 Class A shares issued at $36 per share
- $325M net proceeds to Galaxy for Helios buildout and general corporate purposes
- From a leading global asset manager
- Validates the Helios business model at premium valuation
- Expected close: October 17, 2025
$1.4B Project Financing for Helios - Closed August 2025
- Fully funds Phase I development (133 MW)
- De-risks execution on data center buildout
- Non-recourse project financing - doesn't burden Galaxy's balance sheet
- Demonstrates institutional confidence in Helios business model
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Using gamma levels, analyst targets, and catalyst timing, here's the roadmap:
🚀 Bull Case (30% chance)
Target: $50-$57 by March 2026
Key drivers:
- Helios Phase I comes online ahead of schedule (H1 2026)
- Bitcoin rallies to $100K+ driving trading volume surge
- GalaxyOne user adoption exceeds expectations
- Energy market tightness benefits data center pricing
Gamma resistance to overcome:
- Must break through $45 barrier (3.92M gamma wall)
- Clear path above $45 toward analyst targets
Analyst support:
- Benchmark: $57 target (42.5% upside from $40)
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $53 target (raised from $45)
- Canaccord Genuity: $50 target (raised from $34)
- BTIG: $50 target (raised from $35)
- Rosenblatt: $46 target (raised from $44)
Risk-reward: This requires continued flawless execution + crypto bull market continuation
😐 Base Case (50% chance)
Target: $39-$45 range through Q1 2026
Key drivers:
- Stock consolidates recent 180% rally in $40 gamma fortress zone
- Mixed crypto market conditions (no major breakout or breakdown)
- Helios Phase I on track but no early completion
- Q4 earnings solid but not spectacular
Gamma dynamics:
- $40 support holds firm (4.31M net GEX)
- $41-$42 resistance zone caps upside near-term
- Range-bound trading while market digests gains
Analyst consensus:
- Average price target: $44.63 (8-10% upside)
- "Strong Buy" rating with 9 Buy ratings, 2 Hold, 0 Sell
Risk-reward: This is the "digest and consolidate" scenario - healthy and most likely
😰 Bear Case (20% chance)
Target: $32-$37 range
Key drivers:
- Crypto market correction (Bitcoin breaks down from current levels)
- Helios Phase I construction delays
- Rising data center buildout costs eat into margins
- GalaxyOne adoption disappoints
- Broader tech selloff affects high-growth stocks
Gamma support levels:
- $37.50 becomes critical floor (6.66M put gamma)
- $36 is last line of defense (3.80M put gamma)
- Below $36 would invalidate the bull thesis
Risk factors:
- Client concentration risk with CoreWeave
- Execution risk on data center buildout
- Crypto regulatory uncertainty
Risk-reward: Would need fundamental deterioration - unlikely given strong Q3 results
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: Follow the Institutional Hedge
Play: Buy protective puts at key support levels
Strategy:
- Buy January 2026 $37.50 puts if you own stock
- Or buy December $38 puts for near-term protection
Risk: Premium paid (likely $2-3 per contract)
Reward: Protects against 10-15% downside while keeping upside
Why this works: The pros are paying up for protection after a massive run - that's your signal to do the same if you own shares. Better to pay $2-3 for peace of mind than watch $10+ evaporate in a correction.
Position sizing: For every 100 shares owned, buy 1 put contract
⚖️ Balanced: Play the Range with Put Credit Spreads
Play: Sell put spreads in the $37.50-$40 zone (November expiration)
Strategy:
- Sell November $39 puts
- Buy November $37 puts
- Collect $0.75-$1.00 credit per spread
Risk: $2 per spread maximum loss ($200 per contract)
Reward: $75-100 premium collected (38-50% ROI if GLXY stays above $39)
Why this works: Gamma support at $40 is massive, and you're getting paid to bet the stock holds above $37-39 support into November. The pros just showed us where they think the floor is!
Probability of profit: ~70% (stock stays above $39)
🚀 Aggressive: Counter-Trade with Bull Call Spreads
Play: Buy call spreads betting the rally continues
Strategy:
- Buy December $42 calls
- Sell December $47 calls
- Net debit: $1.50-$2.00 per spread
Risk: $150-200 per spread maximum loss
Reward: $5 width = $500 max profit (150-250% ROI if GLXY hits $47+)
Why this works: If the put hedges are just profit protection (not a bearish bet), the stock could easily push toward analyst targets at $50-57. You're betting against the hedges and with the analyst upgrades.
Catalyst timing: Position for Helios Phase I updates and Q4 earnings strength
Breakeven: ~$43.50-44 (needs to rally 8-9% by December)
⚠️ Risk Factors
Be aware of what could go wrong:
- Vertical rally exhaustion: Up 180% YTD and at all-time highs - some consolidation or pullback is natural
- Crypto market correlation: Galaxy's trading volumes surge and fall with Bitcoin - crypto winter would hurt
- Execution risk on Helios: Data center buildout is capital-intensive and complex - delays could disappoint
- Client concentration: Heavy reliance on CoreWeave for data center revenue - if they struggle, Galaxy feels it
- GalaxyOne adoption: New retail platform needs to prove it can scale and compete with established players
- Regulatory uncertainty: Crypto regulations remain in flux - adverse rulings could impact operations
- High valuation: At $6.92B market cap and trading near analyst targets, upside may be limited near-term
- Liquidity in options: Smaller cap name means wider bid-ask spreads and lower options liquidity
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: This $14.9M put protection play is textbook institutional profit-taking after an absolute monster run! Galaxy Digital crushed Q3 earnings, the stock rallied to fresh all-time highs at $40.60, and now the smart money is buying insurance on their gains.
This isn't bearish - it's smart! After tripling your money in 10 months, you don't just sit there naked. You protect your gains while staying positioned for more upside. That's exactly what this massive put buyer is doing.
If you own GLXY: Consider following their lead with protective puts at $37.50-$39 strikes. The gamma data shows fortress-level support at $40, so you're protecting a very real floor. You've made incredible gains - a few bucks of insurance is worth it!
If you're watching: The stock just hit all-time highs and faces resistance at $41-42 (gamma) and $44-45 (analyst targets). Near-term consolidation in the $38-42 range is highly probable. Wait for a dip toward $38-39 support or a breakout above $42 on volume before entering.
If you're bullish: Focus on 2026 catalysts like Helios Phase I launch (H1 2026) and GalaxyOne adoption metrics. Buy longer-dated calls (January-March 2026) to position for the data center revenue inflection point.
Mark your calendar:
- January 8-9, 2026: Next earnings call - expect Helios updates
- H1 2026: Helios Phase I comes online - this is THE catalyst!
- March 30, 2026: Q4 2025 earnings - full year results
The opportunity: Galaxy sits at the intersection of two mega-trends: institutional crypto adoption + AI infrastructure buildout. Record Q3 results prove the crypto business is firing, and Helios represents $1B+ in new annual revenue starting in 2026. The put protection is just smart money locking in gains while staying positioned for the next leg up!
Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About Galaxy Digital: Galaxy Digital Inc. is a leading digital assets and data center infrastructure firm with $6.92B market cap in the security brokers, dealers & flotation companies sector. The company delivers solutions that accelerate progress in finance and artificial intelligence through institutional-grade digital asset services and AI data center infrastructure development.