GE Aerospace $3.5M Bullish Call Buy Before Earnings!

October 17, 2025 | Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $3.5 MILLION on GE calls at 13:24 today - just 4 days before earnings! This massive institutional bet is a bullish play on GE breaking above $300 into the November 14th expiration. With the stock up 77.6% YTD and earnings October 21st, smart money is positioning for an explosive post-earnings rally. Translation: Big money thinks GE has more room to run!

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📊 Company Overview

GE Aerospace (GE) is the global leader in designing, manufacturing, and servicing commercial aircraft engines with:
- Market Cap: $318 Billion
- Industry: Aircraft Engines & Aerospace Equipment
- Primary Business: Commercial engines (LEAP, GE9X, GEnx), defense propulsion, and high-margin services
- Key Advantage: $175 billion backlog providing revenue visibility through 2028+

GE transformed into a pure-play aerospace powerhouse after spinning off GE Vernova (energy) and GE Healthcare, allowing focused execution on aircraft engines and services.

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📊 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 17, 2025 @ 13:24:25):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
13:24:25	GE	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-11-14	$3.5M	$300	2.6K	40	2,600	$299.32	$13.39

What This Actually Means

This is a straight call purchase - the most straightforward bullish bet in options! The trader:

• Pays $3.5M in premium for the right to buy GE at $300
• Needs GE above $313.39 breakeven by November 14th expiration (28 days)
• Profits unlimited on any move above breakeven
• Maximum loss is the $3.5M premium paid
• Low open interest (40 contracts) means this is a brand new position, not rolling or closing

Unusual Score: HIGH (65x average size) - This happens a few times per year for GE!

Key Insight: The timing is critical - this trade was executed just 4 days before Q3 earnings on October 21st. The buyer expects either a massive earnings beat or game-changing guidance that propels GE significantly higher.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

GE is absolutely crushing it in 2025 with +77.6% YTD performance - nearly doubling from $168.59 to current levels around $299.48. After a brief dip in April, GE has been on an absolute tear since May.

Key observations:
- Momentum beast: Steady uptrend with higher highs throughout the year
- Moderate volatility: 31.5% implied volatility signals decent moves expected
- Near all-time highs: Trading just below the psychological $300 level
- Volume pattern: Increased institutional interest with consistent volume spikes
- Max drawdown: Only -21.4% shows resilience during market stress

The chart screams strength - GE is in a clean uptrend with no major resistance until $300, which this trade is betting it breaks through.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $299.43

The gamma landscape reveals a fascinating setup right at the $300 strike:

Call Gamma Resistance Zones (🟠):
- $300 strike: MASSIVE wall with 13.5M call gamma - this is where the battle will be fought!
- $305 strike: Secondary resistance at 1.4M call gamma
- $310 strike: Strong resistance at 2.3M call gamma
- $320 strike: Major resistance at 3.4M call gamma if momentum continues

Put Gamma Support Zones (🔵):
- $297.5 strike: Strongest support with 2.7M put gamma providing immediate floor
- $295 strike: Secondary support at 770K put gamma
- $290 strike: Solid support at 1.6M put gamma
- $280-$270 range: Deep support levels with 1-1.3M put gamma each

Critical Analysis:
- GE is sitting RIGHT AT the $300 resistance level with 18.5M total gamma (calls + puts)
- Net GEX shows +8.6M bullish bias at $300 strike - market makers will hedge by buying shares if it breaks through
- Strong put support at $297.50 creates a tight floor just $2 below current price
- Post-$300 breakout potential: Once GE clears $300, next resistance isn't until $305-$310

This gamma setup perfectly explains the trade logic - buy calls at $300 strike because breaking through this wall could trigger explosive upside as market makers chase the move!

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⚡ Catalysts

Upcoming Events (HIGH IMPACT)

Q3 2025 Earnings - October 21, 2025 (4 DAYS AWAY!)

Wall Street expects massive growth with GE firing on all cylinders:

• Revenue: $10.34 billion (+15.6% YoY) (Yahoo Finance)
• Adjusted EPS: $1.45-$1.46 (+26-27% YoY) (Yahoo Finance)
• Commercial Engines & Services Revenue: $8.25 billion (+17.8% YoY) (Yahoo Finance)
• Defense & Propulsion Technologies Revenue: $2.52 billion (+12.5% YoY) (Yahoo Finance)
• Beat streak: GE has beaten estimates for 4 straight quarters with average surprise of 16.1% (Yahoo Finance)
• Services revenue: Expected to continue double-digit growth with 23%+ margins

Why this matters: The options buyer is betting on another earnings beat + raised guidance combo that has become GE's signature move under CEO Larry Culp.

Boeing 777X Entry Into Service (2026)

The GE9X engine powers Boeing's next-generation widebody:
- GE secured largest widebody engine deal ever with Qatar Airways - over 400 GE9X and GEnx engines
- Long-term revenue stream with high-margin services contracts
- Additional orders from Korean Air and British Airways

Record $175 Billion Backlog Providing Revenue Visibility

GE operates with exceptional revenue visibility through 2028+:
- Massive $175 billion total backlog (AInvest)
- Services backlog exceeds $170 billion from long-term maintenance contracts (SEC Filing)
- Commercial services revenue grew 29% in Q2 2025 with 23% operating margins (Yahoo Finance)
- Services expected to grow at double-digit rates through 2028 (SEC Filing)
- Installed base growth: GEnx engines ~2x increase, LEAP engines ~3x increase by 2030 (GE Investor Presentation)

LEAP Engine Production Ramp

The CFM LEAP engine (joint venture with Safran) is GE's growth engine:
- Delivered 975 LEAP engines in Q2 2025
- Engine deliveries up 45% YoY with supply chain improvements showing results (SEC Filing)
- FLIGHT DECK initiative improved supplier performance: material input up 10% sequentially, suppliers delivering >95% of committed volume (SEC Filing)
- Powers Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX - the world's best-selling narrowbody aircraft

Recently Completed Events

Raised 2025 & 2028 Guidance (July 2025)

GE shocked Wall Street by significantly raising both near and long-term targets:

2025 Guidance (Updated):
- Adjusted revenue growth: Mid-teens (previously low-double-digits) (SEC Filing)
- Operating profit: $8.2-$8.5B (up from $7.8-$8.2B)
- Adjusted EPS: $5.60-$5.80 (up from $5.10-$5.45)
- Free cash flow: $6.5-$6.9B with >100% conversion (Yahoo Finance)

2028 Outlook (Updated):
- Revenue CAGR (2024-2028): Double-digit growth (SEC Filing)
- Operating profit: ~$11.5B (+$1.5B from prior outlook)
- Adjusted EPS: ~$8.40
- Free cash flow: ~$8.5B (+$1.5B improvement) (GE Investor Presentation)
- Capital returns to shareholders: Increased 20% to ~$24B for 2024-2026
- Sustainable capital returns: At least 70% of free cash flow via dividends and buybacks beyond 2026 (SEC Filing)

China Market Access Restored (July 2025)

The US government lifted export restrictions allowing GE to resume shipping:
- LEAP-1C engines for COMAC C919 aircraft (Source: Reuters)
- CF34 engines for C909 regional jets
- China targets 50 C919 aircraft production in 2025
- Long-term potential: 2,000+ C919 aircraft over 20 years

Defense & Propulsion Technology Expansion

GE's defense segment is accelerating with elevated spending and next-gen programs:
- Defense orders grew 24% in Q2 2025 (AInvest)
- Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP): GE developing XA102 adaptive engine for F-47 stealth fighter, proposing to skip technology maturation phase and accelerate fielding by 3-4 years (Breaking Defense)
- Improved Turbine Engine Program (ITEP/T901): Congressional support remains strong with $175 million earmarked, GE pitching faster fielding timelines (Breaking Defense)
- Hypersonic propulsion: Developing liquid ramjet and dual-mode ramjet engines with rotating detonation combustion for hypersonic missiles (Breaking Defense)
- Kratos partnership: Teamed with Kratos Defense to develop GEK1500 engine (1,500-lb thrust) for Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), demonstrations beginning 2026 (GE Aerospace)

GE Catalyst Turboprop FAA Certification (February 2025)

The advanced Catalyst engine received FAA certification after 8,000+ test hours:
- First clean-sheet turboprop of the 21st century
- 16:1 overall pressure ratio enabling 18% better fuel consumption and 10% higher cruise power vs competitors (GE Aerospace)
- Will power Textron Beechcraft Denali (certification expected 2026)
- Competes directly with Pratt & Whitney's dominant PT6 engine (51,000+ units produced) (Wikipedia)
- GE investing up to $1B in the program
- Production ramping at GE's Czech Republic facility (Flight Global)

RISE Program: Next-Generation Engine Technology

GE's CFM RISE (Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines) program represents major R&D investment in ultra-efficient propulsion:
- Program completed more than 350 tests including advanced high-pressure turbine blade cooling and full-size Open Fan blade testing (SEC Filing)
- Targets 20% improvement in fuel efficiency versus current LEAP engines (Monexa)
- Positions GE competitively against Rolls-Royce UltraFan and Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan technologies
- Aligns with industry decarbonization goals and provides long-term competitive differentiator

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🎯 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, earnings catalyst, and technical setup for analysis:

Bull Case (40% chance)

Target: $315-$325

Path to get there:
- GE crushes Q3 earnings with another 15%+ beat like last quarter
- Services revenue growth accelerates beyond 29% seen in Q2
- Company raises 2025 guidance again or provides aggressive Q4 outlook
- Breaks through $300 gamma wall triggering market maker buying
- Next resistance at $305-$310 provides temporary pause before continuation

Why this could happen:
The 16.1% average earnings beat streak suggests GE consistently under-promises and over-delivers. The $175 billion backlog provides perfect revenue visibility, and LEAP engine production ramp improvements could drive upside surprise.

This trade prints big money in this scenario - breakeven at $313.39 means profit zone starts here.

Base Case (40% chance)

Target: $295-$310 range

Path to get there:
- GE meets earnings expectations with in-line results
- No major guidance changes - steady as she goes
- Stock bounces between gamma support at $297.50 and resistance at $300-$310
- Consolidates recent 77.6% YTD gains before next major catalyst

Why this is most likely:
After nearly doubling YTD, some consolidation makes sense. GE has already priced in a lot of good news with its rally from $168 to $300. Meeting expectations keeps the uptrend intact without explosive moves.

This trade struggles here - needs to break above $313 to profit, which is harder if stock stays range-bound.

Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $280-$295

Path to get there:
- Earnings disappointment on supply chain constraints affecting LEAP deliveries
- Boeing 737 MAX production issues slow engine demand more than expected
- Broader market correction pulls down high-flyers like GE
- Profit-taking after 77.6% YTD run
- Falls through $297.50 support toward $290-$295 gamma support zone

Why this could happen:
Valuation is stretched after the massive rally. Any hiccup in the growth story could trigger fast selling. Cost pressures related to specific projects were mentioned as a concern.

This trade loses maximum $3.5M - calls expire worthless if GE stays below $300.

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💡 Trading Ideas

Conservative: Sell Cash-Secured Puts

Play: Sell November 14th $290 puts

Collect premium while waiting to own GE at an effective cost basis below $285

Risk: Assigned at $290 if stock drops 3%
Reward: Keep premium if GE stays above $290

Why this works: Strong gamma support at $290-$297.50 makes assignment unlikely. You get paid to wait for a better entry into a great company.

Balanced: Bull Call Spread

Play: Buy November 14th $300 calls, sell $310 calls

Risk: $5-6 per spread max loss
Reward: $4-5 profit if GE closes above $310

Why this works: Follows the smart money direction with defined risk. Gamma resistance at $310 provides natural profit target. Risk-reward of roughly 1:1 is fair for 28-day trade.

Aggressive: Follow the Whale

Play: Buy November 14th $300 calls or $305 calls

Risk: Premium paid (100% loss possible)
Reward: Unlimited if earnings catalyst triggers breakout

Why this works: Direct bet on earnings beat. If GE moves to $315-320 post-earnings, these calls could 3-5x. November expiration gives time for post-earnings momentum.

Sizing: Keep position size to 1-3% of portfolio max - these expire in 28 days!

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Earnings timing risk - Options decay accelerates into expiration. If GE doesn't move quickly post-earnings, theta burn will hurt.

Supply chain constraints - Raw material availability and labor shortages continue challenging LEAP production ramps. Any update suggesting delays could disappoint.

Boeing exposure - GE's LEAP engines power the 737 MAX. Boeing's ongoing production issues directly impact GE's engine delivery volumes.

Valuation stretched - Up 77.6% YTD already. Stock trades at premium multiples expecting continued growth. Any miss could trigger sharp correction.

China geopolitical risk - While export restrictions were lifted in July, US-China tensions could flare again affecting COMAC engine sales.

High gamma resistance at $300 - The 18.5M total gamma concentration means GE could ping-pong around $300 level. Breaking through requires serious buying pressure.

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🏁 The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $3.5M call purchase is a sophisticated bet on GE breaking out post-earnings. The timing - just 4 days before Q3 results - suggests someone has conviction in another beat-and-raise quarter.

The setup is compelling:
- GE has beaten earnings for 4 straight quarters by an average of 16%
- $175 billion backlog provides perfect revenue visibility
- LEAP engine production improvements showing progress
- China market reopened adding growth opportunity
- Already raised 2025 and 2028 guidance in July - could do it again

The risks are real:
- Already up 77.6% YTD - lot of good news priced in
- Needs to break through massive $300 gamma wall
- Supply chain issues could limit upside
- 28 days to expiration means theta decay accelerates

If you own GE: Hold through earnings with a tight stop at $290 support. Consider selling some covered calls at $305-$310 to collect premium.

If you're watching: Wait for earnings reaction. If GE breaks $300 with volume, that's your entry signal for the continuation move.

If you're bearish: This is NOT the trade for you. Wait for evidence of momentum breaking before shorting - fighting this trend has been painful all year.

Mark your calendar: October 21st before market open. This earnings report will determine if GE breaks $300 or consolidates. The options buyer is betting on a breakout!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The October 21st earnings catalyst creates binary risk - GE could gap significantly in either direction.

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About GE: GE is the global leader in designing, manufacturing, and servicing commercial aircraft engines with a $318 billion market cap in the electronic & electrical equipment sector. The company operates the most extensive installed base of approximately 70,000 engines and generates substantial recurring revenue from long-term service contracts through its partnership with Safran in the CFM joint venture.