FIVE Unusual Options: $3.9M Retail Growth (Aug 18)
---...
🛍️ FIVE: Massive $2M Bet on Value Retail Boom!
📅 August 18, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Score: 8.5/10
🎯 The Quick Take
Holy moly! Someone just dropped $2 MILLION on Five Below calls right before earnings! 🚨 This isn't your neighbor Bob trading - these are institutional-sized bets targeting a 7-21% rally by September expiration. With the stock already up 42.7% YTD and Q2 earnings dropping August 27, big money is clearly positioning for a massive breakout!
Q1 2025 Highlights: Net sales jumped 19.5% to $970.5M with adjusted EPS of $0.86 beating consensus of $0.83. Comparable sales grew an impressive 7.1%!
📊 YTD Performance
Five Below has been on an absolute tear in 2025! The stock has rocketed from ~$99 at the start of the year to $141.42 currently, delivering a spectacular +42.73% YTD return. After bottoming around $56 in April, FIVE has nearly tripled off those lows in just 4 months. The recent consolidation around $140 looks like it's building energy for the next leg higher! 🚀
💰 The Options Tape Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened (12:46:06 PM)
Let me break down these massive trades that just hit the tape:
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | C/P | Strike | Expiration | Premium | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:46:06 | FIVE | MID | BUY | CALL | $150 | 2025-09-19 | $1.6M | 5K | 68 | 2,861 | $140.19 | $5.56 |
| 12:46:06 | FIVE | MID | BUY | CALL | $170 | 2025-09-19 | $369K | 5K | 11 | 2,861 | $140.19 | $1.29 |
Total Premium Deployed: $1,969,000 💸
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This is MASSIVE positioning ahead of catalysts! Here's the translation for us regular folks:
- 🎯 The $150 calls ($5.56 each): Big money expects FIVE to hit AT LEAST $155.56 for breakeven - that's just 10% away!
- 🚀 The $170 calls ($1.29 each): This is the "home run" bet - they're looking for $171+ (25% rally) for profits
- ⏰ September 19 expiration: Perfect timing to capture Q2 earnings (Aug 27) AND back-to-school sales data
- 📊 Volume vs Open Interest: The 150 strike saw 5K volume vs just 68 OI - that's 73x normal! Someone's loading up fresh!
🔥 Unusual Score Meter: 8.5/10
Let's break down why this activity is setting off alarms:
📈 Premium Size: 10/10 - $1.6M on a single strike? That's whale-level conviction! 🐋
📊 Volume/OI Ratio: 9/10
- 73x normal activity on the 150 strike
- 454x on the 170 strike (5K volume vs 11 OI)
⏰ Timing Score: 8/10 - Positioned perfectly for Q2 earnings catalyst - Back-to-school season in full swing
🎯 Strike Selection: 7/10 - Conservative 150 strike shows confidence - Aggressive 170 strike adds lottery ticket upside
🎪 Catalyst Calendar
Mark your calendars! Here's what's driving this action:
📅 Immediate Catalyst (9 Days Away!)
August 27, 2025 (After Close): Q2 2025 Earnings Release - Analysts expect EPS of ~$0.54 - Street looking for continued comp store growth after Q1's impressive 7.1% - Guidance update will be KEY!
🎒 Seasonal Catalyst (Happening NOW!)
Back-to-School Season: Five Below positions itself as a "one-stop destination" with $5 backpacks and school supplies - Peak selling season for the company - Major traffic driver for new customer acquisition
🏪 Growth Catalyst (Ongoing)
Store Expansion: 150 new stores planned for fiscal 2025 - 8.5% footprint expansion - Long-term target of 3,500 stores (currently ~1,800)
🎁 Q4 Setup (Building)
Holiday Season Prep: Five Below's extensive holiday merchandise drives massive Q4 performance - Christmas decorations and gifts under $5 - Historical Q4 strength could drive guidance raises
🎯 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on the options flow and technical setup, here's what we're looking at:
🚀 Bull Case: $165-170 (35% chance)
- Beat and raise quarter with strong back-to-school commentary
- Tariff concerns prove overblown with India sourcing office showing progress
- New CEO Winnie Park (former Forever 21 CEO) brings fresh momentum
- Options holders' dream scenario! 💰
⚖️ Base Case: $145-155 (50% chance)
- In-line earnings with maintained guidance
- Steady execution on store expansion
- Stock grinds higher into year-end
- 150 strike calls print money ✅
😰 Bear Case: $130-135 (15% chance)
- Earnings miss or guidance cut
- Tariff impact worse than expected (60% of goods from China)
- Discretionary spending slowdown hits teen shoppers
- Options expire worthless 💔
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "The Earnings Defender"
Buy 145/150 Call Spread for September - Cost: ~$2.50 per spread - Max Profit: $2.50 (100% return) - Breakeven: $147.50 - Why it works: Profits if stock moves just 4% higher
⚖️ Balanced: "Follow the Whales"
Buy September 150 Calls - Cost: ~$5.50 per contract - Breakeven: $155.50 - Target: $160+ for 100% gain - Why it works: Same trade as the smart money, but size appropriately!
🚀 Aggressive: "YOLO with Training Wheels"
Buy 155/170 Call Spread for September - Cost: ~$3.00 per spread - Max Profit: $12.00 (300% return!) - Breakeven: $158 - Why it works: Massive reward/risk if earnings deliver
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
- 🚢 Tariff Torpedo: Recent suspension of Chinese shipments could impact inventory and margins (~150 basis points impact expected)
- 💸 Teen Spending Slowdown: Discretionary retail always vulnerable in economic uncertainty
- 🏪 Competition Heating Up: Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and online players like Amazon's Haul and Temu pressuring market share
- 📊 High Expectations: Stock up 43% YTD means bar is HIGH for earnings beat
🏁 The Trader's Corner
Real talk: This is one of the clearest institutional positioning plays I've seen! When someone drops $1.6M on slightly OTM calls with just 32 days to expiration, they're not gambling - they've done their homework.
The combination of: - 📈 Strong YTD momentum (42.7% gain) - 🎯 Perfect catalyst timing (earnings in 9 days) - 💰 Massive premium deployment ($2M total) - 🎒 Peak seasonal strength (back-to-school)
...suggests big money knows something bullish is coming!
My take? The 150 strike calls look like the sweet spot - close enough to be achievable but far enough to provide leverage. If you're playing this, consider the call spreads to reduce cost and define risk.
And remember - when the whales are swimming, sometimes it pays to follow the current! 🐋
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: Someone with DEEP pockets just made a $2 million bet that Five Below explodes higher over the next month. With earnings 9 days away and back-to-school season in full swing, this looks like calculated institutional positioning, not speculation.
Action Plan: - Bulls: Consider September call spreads for defined risk exposure - Watching: Set alerts for $145 (support) and $150 (resistance/breakout) - Bears: Wait for post-earnings - shorting into this momentum is dangerous
Mark your calendar for August 27th - that earnings call could be fireworks! 🎆
Remember: Options trading is risky. Size your positions appropriately and never bet more than you can afford to lose. But when smart money makes moves this big, it definitely pays to pay attention! 👀
Not financial advice. Do your own research. Options involve risk of 100% loss.