FIG: Massive $10.3 MILLION Trade Signals Major Volatility Ahead!
Someone just executed a **$10.3 MILLION** protective collar on Figma with perfect timing - buying $5.9M in puts while selling $4.4M in calls at the SAME $55 strike! 🐋 With a **10/10 VOLCANIC unusual s...
📅 September 15, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just executed a $10.3 MILLION protective trade on Figma with perfect timing - buying $5.9M in puts while selling $4.4M in calls at the SAME $55 strike! 🐋 With a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score that's 2,849x larger than average, this institutional whale is bracing for serious volatility ahead! After FIG's incredible 157% YTD run to $53.50, this massive hedge suggests they're protecting gains while capping upside - classic "take some chips off the table" move! 🎰
🏢 Company Overview
Figma Inc ($FIG) is the cloud-based collaborative design platform that went public on July 31, 2025, in one of the year's most successful tech IPOs! 🎨
Key Stats: - 💰 Market Cap: $26.0 Billion - 🏭 Industry: Prepackaged Software - 🌐 Sector: Technology/SaaS - 📊 Business: Transforming ideas into digital products and experiences across the entire software creation lifecycle
Figma has become the go-to design platform for 95% of Fortune 500 companies with over 13 million monthly active users. The company's revolutionary real-time collaboration tools have disrupted Adobe's dominance in the design space! 💪
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
Check out this monster protective collar that hit the tape at 13:29:33:
| Time | Symbol | Side | Type | Strike | Expiration | Premium | Volume | OI | Size | Spot Price | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:29:33 | FIG | BUY | PUT | $55 | 2025-11-21 | $5.9M | 7K | 450 | 7,000 | $52.90 | $8.40 |
| 13:29:33 | FIG | SELL | CALL | $55 | 2025-11-21 | $4.4M | 7.1K | 1.1K | 7,000 | $52.90 | $6.30 |
Total Premium: $10.3M ($5.9M + $4.4M) Net Debit: $1.5M ($5.9M paid - $4.4M collected) Option Symbols: FIG20251121P55 / FIG20251121C55
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This trade scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score - literally UNPRECEDENTED activity! 🌋
Here's the translation for us regular folks:
The Put Buy (Protection): - Paying $8.40 per contract for downside insurance - Protected below $55 (currently $52.90) - Maximum loss capped at $46.60 ($55 - $8.40) - Total cost: $5.9 MILLION
The Call Sell (Capping Upside): - Collecting $6.30 per contract premium - Obligated to sell at $55 if called away - Caps gains at $55 (only 3.97% upside) - Total collected: $4.4 MILLION
The Combined Strategy (Protective Collar): - Net cost: $1.5M ($2.10 per share) - Protected below $55, capped at $55 - Unusualness: 2,849x larger than average FIG option trade! - This happens LITERALLY NEVER - we've never seen anything like this in FIG!
Translation: This whale owns a TON of FIG stock and is saying "I made 157% this year, time to protect my gains but I'll cap my upside to pay for the insurance!" Smart money taking profits! 💡
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
📈 FIG Year-to-Date Performance with Volume Analysis
Looking at the YTD performance, FIG has been on an absolute moonshot:
Key Metrics: - 🚀 YTD Return: +156.99% (!!!) - 📊 Current Price: $53.50 - 📈 Start of Year: $20.82 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -83.94% (hit during market correction) - 💪 Volatility: 23.73%
Technical Levels: - 🎯 Current: $53.50 - 🚨 Strike Level: $55 (both put and call) - 🛡️ Protection Zone: Below $55 - 🔒 Upside Cap: $55 (only 2.8% upside room) - 📉 Breakeven: $52.90 (current spot price)
The chart shows FIG exploded from $20 to nearly $60 in August (hitting a 500% peak!), then pulled back to current levels. This collar trade suggests the whale thinks we're in for more chop! 🎢
🎪 Catalysts
✅ Recent Events (Already Happened)
IPO Success Story: - July 31, 2025: Figma IPO raises $1.2B - Largest VC-backed tech IPO in years! - Q2 2025 Earnings Beat - 41% revenue growth but guidance disappointed
Product Launches: - AI-powered suite including Figma Make, Sites, Buzz, and Draw - Payload CMS acquisition completed for backend capabilities
🔮 Upcoming Catalysts
Q3 2025 Earnings - Late October - Guidance: $263-265M revenue (33% YoY growth) - Market watching for growth reacceleration - Key focus on AI monetization progress
Lock-up Expiration Risk - June 2026 - 54% of shares in extended lock-up - Potential selling pressure ahead - Employee vesting schedules matter
AI Product Rollouts - Q4 2025 - Figma Cortex AI launch expected - Full-stack productivity platform transformation - Competition with Adobe heating up
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)
Target: $65+ by year-end - AI features drive massive adoption - Enterprise expansion accelerates - Beat and raise Q3 guidance - Break through $55 resistance
😐 Base Case (50% chance)
Target: $50-55 range-bound - Consolidation after massive YTD gains - Growth deceleration continues - Collar trade suggests institutional positioning for sideways action - November expiration aligns with this view
😰 Bear Case (25% chance)
Target: $40-45 correction - Growth disappoints further - AI competition intensifies - Lock-up expiration fears mount - Valuation compression at 30x sales
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "Follow the Whale"
Strategy: Buy FIG20251121P50 puts - Cost: ~$4.50 per contract - Protection below $50 - Smart if you own shares and want cheaper insurance - Risk: Premium paid if stock stays above $50
⚖️ Balanced: "Volatility Play"
Strategy: Sell FIG20251121C60 calls if you own shares - Collect: ~$3.80 premium - Generate income while capped at $60 - Works if stock stays below $60 through November - Risk: Miss gains above $60
🚀 Aggressive: "Reversal Bet"
Strategy: Buy FIG20251219C55 calls (December) - Cost: ~$7.20 per contract - Bet on breakout above collar resistance - Play the Q3 earnings catalyst - Risk: Total premium if no breakout
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:
📉 Valuation Risk: Trading at 30x sales is EXPENSIVE 🔒 Lock-up Overhang: 54% of shares locked until June 2026 🤖 AI Competition: Tools like Lovable, Bolt, V0 threatening market share 📊 Growth Deceleration: From 46% to 33% growth is concerning 💸 Margin Pressure: Heavy AI investment eating into profitability
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: When someone drops $10.3 MILLION on a protective collar with a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score, you pay attention! This whale made bank on FIG's 157% run and is now playing defense - protecting downside while giving up just 3% upside potential.
If you own FIG: Consider taking some profits or buying protection like this whale If you're watching: Wait for a break above $55 or below $50 for direction If you're bearish: The whale's protection suggests downside risk is real
Mark your calendar for November 21 - that's when this massive collar expires and we'll see if this whale called the top or just played it too safe! Until then, expect FIG to chop around in the $50-55 range while the market digests this massive hedge.
Remember: When institutional money spends $1.5M net on protection after a 157% gain, they're not gambling - they're preserving capital. Sometimes the best trade is protecting your wins! 💪
⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This unusual activity doesn't guarantee future price movement. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.