FIG Bullish Options Explosion - $7.5M AI Design Platform Bet!

📅 October 8, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $7.5M on bullish Figma options this morning at 10:01:19! This massive institutional flow includes a $5.6M bet on the October 10 $58 calls expiring in just 2 days, suggesting expectations for an immediate upward move. With the stock trading at $66.92, these deep in-the-money calls plus a spread of near-term positions signal smart money is loading up on FIG's AI-powered design platform momentum. Translation: Big institutions think FIG is about to rip higher, and they're betting millions on it RIGHT NOW!

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📊 Company Overview

Figma Inc. (FIG) is an AI-powered design platform transforming ideas into digital products and experiences with:
- Market Cap: $29.8 Billion
- Industry: Prepackaged Software (SaaS Design Platform)
- Business: Collaborative design tools with AI integration, competing with Adobe, Canva, and legacy design software
- Key Metrics: 13M+ monthly active users, 95% Fortune 500 penetration, 129% net dollar retention

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 8, 2025 @ 10:01:19):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
10:01:19	FIG	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-10-10	$5.6M	$58	6.1K	7.4K	5,999	$66.92	$9.28
10:01:19	FIG	ABOVE ASK	BUY	CALL	2025-10-17	$1.9M	$70	7.7K	3.9K	5,999	$66.92	$3.22
10:01:19	FIG	MID	SELL	PUT	2025-10-17	$1M	$61	6K	565	5,999	$66.92	$1.70
10:01:19	FIG	MID	BUY	PUT	2025-10-10	$72K	$44	6K	6.2K	5,999	$66.92	$0.12
10:01:19	FIG	MID	BUY	PUT	2025-10-10	$48K	$51	6.1K	8.1K	5,999	$66.92	$0.08

Net Bullish Premium: $7.5M in calls vs $1.1M in puts = 6.7:1 bullish ratio

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a sophisticated multi-leg bullish structure executed by institutional traders:

The Core Position ($5.6M at $58 strike):
- Deep in-the-money $58 calls expiring October 10 (2 days out!)
- These trade nearly 1:1 with stock movement (Delta ~0.99)
- Provides 100x leverage on 5,999 contracts = ~600K shares exposure
- This is basically a leveraged stock position with minimal time decay

The Upside Bet ($1.9M at $70 strike):
- October 17 $70 calls bought ABOVE ASK (aggressive!)
- Needs $3+ move to be profitable (4.5% upside)
- Paid premium to jump the queue - serious conviction!

Downside Protection (Puts):
- Sold $61 puts to collect $1M premium (reduces net cost)
- Bought cheap $44 and $51 puts as disaster insurance

The Strategy: This is a synthetic long stock position with upside lottery tickets and downside protection. The trader gets full upside participation with defined risk.

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (2,704x average size!) - The $5.6M trade scored a perfect 10/10 on unusualness. This happens maybe a few times a year in FIG options. Translation: This is NOT retail activity - this is a major institutional player making a huge directional bet!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

Figma's had a wild ride since its July 2025 IPO! After an explosive 250% surge on day one, the stock hit a peak around $143 in August before disappointing earnings guidance sent shares tumbling over 55% to current levels near $67.

Key observations:
- High volatility environment: Stock swings 10-15% on news
- Current position: Down 53% from August highs but stabilizing
- Recent catalyst: ChatGPT integration announcement drove 17%+ rally last week
- Trading range: Finding support in the $60-70 zone after post-earnings selloff

The chart shows FIG has established a base after the sharp decline. Smart money might be betting this is the bottom and positioning for a reversal rally!

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $69.11 (as of gamma snapshot at 12:05 PM)

The gamma chart reveals critical price levels that explain this massive bullish flow:

Resistance Levels (Orange Bars Above Price):
- $70 strike: MAJOR gamma wall with 4.74 total GEX (3.98 call gamma)
- This is where the trader bought $1.9M worth of calls!
- Market makers have massive hedging obligations here
- Breaking above $70 could trigger gamma squeeze as MMs buy stock to hedge
- $75 strike: Secondary resistance at 1.29 GEX
- $80 strike: Upper boundary at 1.44 GEX

Support Levels (Blue Bars Below Price):
- $68 strike: Immediate support with 0.52 GEX (just 1.6% below current price)
- $65 strike: STRONG support floor with 2.98 total GEX
- Largest put gamma concentration provides cushion
- This was yesterday's low - perfect double bottom setup
- $60 strike: MASSIVE support at 5.02 total GEX
- Both call and put gamma create strong floor
- Would take major negative catalyst to break below
- $58-59 strikes: Deep support cluster

Net GEX Bias: BULLISH (21.57 call GEX vs 9.03 put GEX = 2.4:1 ratio)

What This Means:
The gamma profile is heavily skewed bullish with major resistance at $70. Breaking above this level would force market makers to buy stock to hedge their short gamma position, potentially triggering an explosive move higher. The trader's $1.9M bet on $70 calls makes perfect tactical sense - it's the key level that unlocks upside momentum!

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events

Next Earnings Report - December 3, 2025 (Q3 2025)
- Wall Street watching for execution on 33% growth guidance (Q3 revenue ~$264M expected)
- Key focus: AI product traction from Config 2025 launches including Figma Make, Sites, Draw, and Buzz
- Enterprise expansion: Only 24% of Forbes Global 2000 spend >$100K annually - massive monetization runway
- Analyst expectations: Prove growth re-acceleration after Q2 deceleration from 46% to 41% to projected 33%
- Market impact: Critical test of whether AI features drive revenue or just maintain competitive parity

AI Platform Expansion (Config 2025 Announcements)
- Figma Make: AI prompt-to-code tool for creating functional prototypes, competing with GitHub Copilot and Cursor
- Figma Sites: Website builder targeting Webflow/Framer market share
- Figma Draw: Enhanced vector editing to compete directly with Adobe Illustrator
- Figma Buzz: Marketing asset creation tool taking on Canva's $32B market
- Platform consolidation thesis: If successful, these tools could reduce software stack from 5+ tools to one platform
- Risk factor: Expanding into crowded competitive markets against entrenched players

ChatGPT Integration Momentum
- Recent OpenAI partnership announcement sparked 17%+ rally in stock price
- Positions FIG at center of AI-powered design workflow trend alongside industry leaders
- Developer community excitement building around AI features and automation capabilities
- Monetization potential: AI features could justify premium pricing tier expansion

Enterprise Upsell Opportunity
- 95% of Fortune 500 penetration achieved through product-led growth model
- Only 24% of Forbes Global 2000 spend >$100K/year despite widespread adoption - significant monetization upside
- 70% of enterprise customers upgraded from lower pricing tiers in 2024 - strong upsell motion
- Large customer ($100K+ ARR) count grew 53% in 2024 vs 35% overall customer growth
- Land and expand working: 129% net dollar retention demonstrates pricing power

International Expansion Opportunity
- 85% of users outside US but only 53% of revenue is international - geographic arbitrage opportunity
- Product currently available in only 5 languages despite global user base
- Monetization gap: International ARPU trails US by meaningful margin, presenting expansion lever

Recently Completed

Q2 2025 Earnings (September 3, 2025)
- Revenue: $249.6M representing 41% YoY growth but deceleration from 46% in Q1 disappointed investors
- Net Dollar Retention: 129% (solid but declining) from previous quarters above 130%
- Full year guidance: ~$1.02B revenue (~37% growth) implies continued deceleration
- Stock reaction: Down 60% from post-IPO highs on growth concerns and valuation reset
- Key concern: Margin pressure from infrastructure scaling and new product investments

IPO Success (July 2025)
- NYSE debut saw 250% first-day surge to all-time highs near $143
- Raised capital after Adobe $20B acquisition collapsed due to regulatory antitrust concerns
- ~$30B valuation at current market cap despite 55% decline from peak
- Historical context: Rejection of Adobe deal proved fortuitous as Figma captured value directly

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, catalyst timeline, and technical setup:

🚀 Bull Case (40% chance)

Target: $75-80

Catalysts:
- Break above $70 gamma resistance triggers squeeze to $75
- Positive AI product adoption news from early Config 2025 users
- Enterprise deal announcements showing upsell momentum
- Broader tech rally lifts all boats

Gamma pathway: $70 break → $75 resistance test → potential run to $80 ceiling

Perfect scenario for the $70 call position! This trade pays off big if we see any positive AI momentum news in the next 9 days.

😐 Base Case (40% chance)

Target: $65-70 range

Catalysts:
- Continued consolidation after recent ChatGPT integration rally
- Mixed signals on AI product traction ahead of December earnings
- Market waiting for concrete revenue proof from new products
- Gamma support at $65 holds, resistance at $70 caps upside

Trade impact: The $58 ITM calls make money on any upward movement in this range. The $70 calls expire worthless but the structure still profits.

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $58-65 floor

Catalysts:
- Competitive pressure from Adobe or Canva intensifies
- Negative AI product reviews or adoption concerns surface
- Broader market correction hits high-valuation SaaS names
- Growth deceleration fears resurface before earnings

Gamma support: Multiple layers at $65, $60, and $58 make deeper decline unlikely without major negative catalyst

Trade protection: The sold $61 puts and purchased $44/$51 puts limit downside risk in this scenario.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Ride the Support Levels

Play: Bull put spread at gamma support zones

Sell $65 puts, buy $60 puts (October 31 expiration)

Risk: $5 per spread max loss ($500 per contract)
Reward: $1.50-2.00 credit per spread collected upfront
Probability: ~70% chance of profit (stock stays above $65)

Why this works: Takes advantage of the massive 2.98 GEX support at $65. As long as FIG holds above this strong gamma floor, you keep the premium. The institutional flow suggests big money thinks $65 is the bottom.

⚖️ Balanced: Follow Smart Money to $70

Play: Buy near-the-money calls targeting $70 breakout

Buy $70 calls (October 17 expiration - same as institutional trade)

Risk: Premium paid (~$3.20 based on tape)
Reward: Unlimited upside if $70 breaks, potential 2-3x return to $75
Probability: ~40% chance of profit

Why this works: This is EXACTLY what the smart money bought for $1.9M above ask. If the institutional trader is right about near-term upside, this is the key strike. Breaking $70 unlocks gamma squeeze potential to $75-80.

🚀 Aggressive: Gamma Squeeze Lottery Ticket

Play: Out-of-the-money calls betting on explosive move

Buy $75 calls or $80 calls (November 15 expiration)

Risk: Premium paid (likely $0.50-1.50 per contract)
Reward: 5-10x potential if gamma squeeze materializes
Probability: ~20% chance of profit but asymmetric payoff

Why this works: If FIG breaks $70 and triggers market maker hedging flows, the move could be explosive to next resistance levels. The gamma concentration creates potential for non-linear price action. Only risk what you can afford to lose - this is a true lottery ticket!

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Growth Deceleration Concerns
- Q2 showed 41% growth declining from 46% in Q1 - trend could continue
- Q3 guidance of 33% growth signals further slowdown
- If December earnings disappoint again, stock could retest lows

Valuation Still Premium Despite Selloff
- Trading at ~25x forward sales vs Adobe at 7x and software peers at 12x
- Still priced for perfection despite 55% decline from highs
- Any execution misstep could cause further multiple compression

Intense Competitive Pressure
- Adobe still dominates with broader product suite and enterprise relationships
- Canva growing 35%+ revenue and targeting same enterprise customers
- New AI-native design tools could disrupt entire category

Near-Term Expiration Risk
- The $5.6M position expires in 2 DAYS (October 10)
- Needs immediate upward movement or position decays rapidly
- Suggests trader knows something or expects imminent catalyst

Gamma Resistance Reality
- $70 strike has massive 4.74 GEX creating natural ceiling
- Breaking through requires sustained buying pressure
- Market makers will sell into rallies above this level to hedge

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $7.5M options flow is one of the most unusual trades we've seen in FIG since its IPO. Scoring 2,704x average size on the main $5.6M position means this is NOT normal activity - this is a major institutional player making a massive directional bet with serious conviction.

What makes this interesting:
- The structure is sophisticated (synthetic long + upside calls + downside protection)
- Timing is aggressive (2-day expiration on main position suggests imminent catalyst expected)
- Size is unprecedented (scored perfect 10/10 on unusualness)
- Gamma setup supports the thesis ($70 break unlocks squeeze potential)

If you own FIG: The $65-68 support zone should hold based on gamma profile. Consider adding on dips to $65 or holding for potential $70+ breakout.

If you're watching: The next 2 days are critical for the main position. Watch for any news catalysts that might explain the urgency. A break above $70 could trigger rapid acceleration to $75-80 on gamma dynamics.

If you're bearish: The gamma support at $60-65 creates a strong floor. Any short-term puts should be above $60, and even then, you're fighting institutional flow and massive put gamma support.

Mark your calendar:
- October 10: Main $5.6M call position expires - watch for price action!
- October 17: Secondary $1.9M call position expires along with puts
- December 3: Q3 earnings - the real test for AI product traction

The big question: Does this trader know something about AI product adoption we don't? Or is this just a technical bet on oversold conditions after the 55% decline? Either way, when smart money bets this big with this urgency, retail traders should pay attention! 👀

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Options can expire worthless, resulting in total loss of premium paid.

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About Figma: Figma Inc. is engaged in transforming ideas into digital products and experiences with a $29.8 billion market cap in the prepackaged software sector. The company's AI-powered design platform serves 13M+ monthly active users and 95% of Fortune 500 companies.