🔥 CRWV Institutional Rotation - $48M Option Flow Tells The Story!
Institutional whale alert: $135.0M premium detected on CRWV options (1,189x average size). Massive institutional money just rotated $48M through CRWV options today, with both buying and selling of calls ahead of the critical Core Scientific ... Full analysis reveals gamma exposure levels, catalyst t
📅 October 3, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Massive institutional money just rotated $48M through CRWV options today, with both buying and selling of calls ahead of the critical Core Scientific merger vote on October 30th! This 1,189x average-sized flow shows big players positioning for volatility - with some loading up on March 2026 $165 calls while others took profits on November strikes. Translation: Smart money is playing both sides of the merger decision while locking in massive premiums!
📊 Company Overview
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) is a specialized AI infrastructure powerhouse with:
- Market Cap: $68.3 Billion
- Industry: Cloud Infrastructure & Prepackaged Software
- Primary Business: AI cloud computing platform for complex infrastructure at scale
- Headquarters: Springfield, NJ
- Key Focus: High-performance cloud services for AI model development
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
The Tape (October 3, 2025):
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price | Option Symbol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:31:51 | CRWV | MID | BUY | CALL | 2025-10-17 | $16M | $135 | 21K | 29K | 18,989 | $134.61 | $8.23 | CRWV20251017C135 |
| 14:31:51 | CRWV | MID | SELL | CALL | 2025-11-21 | $17M | $160 | 21K | 9.8K | 18,989 | $134.61 | $8.98 | CRWV20251121C160 |
| 13:28:57 | CRWV | ASK | BUY | CALL | 2026-03-20 | $15M | $165 | 7.1K | 43K | 7,000 | $135.36 | $21 | CRWV20260320C165 |
Total Flow: $48M across three massive trades
🤔 What This Actually Means
This is sophisticated calendar spread positioning - institutions are:
- Near-term bullish bet: Buying $16M worth of October 17 $135 calls (just 2 weeks out!)
- Taking profits: Selling November $160 calls to lock in $17M premium
- Long-term positioning: Loading up on March 2026 $165 calls for $15M
The combination suggests hedged bullishness - they expect near-term movement but are protecting against downside by selling higher strikes and collecting premium.
Unusual Score: 🔥 1,189x average size - This level of activity happens maybe once a year!
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
YTD Chart Analysis
CRWV has shown strong momentum in 2025, with the stock currently trading at $134.61, positioning itself for potential breakout ahead of multiple catalysts.
Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis
Key Gamma Levels from Options Activity:
🛡️ Support Zones (Blue bars - Put gamma concentration):
- $130 strike: Strongest support with 18.65 total gamma exposure (3.4% below current)
- $125 strike: Secondary support at 7.1% below current
- $120 strike: Deep support at 10.9% below current price
🚀 Resistance Zones (Orange bars - Call gamma concentration):
- $135 strike: MASSIVE resistance with 32.12 total gamma (0.3% above - we're RIGHT HERE!)
- $136 strike: Secondary resistance with 17.14 gamma (1% above)
- $140 strike: Next major level at 4% above current
- $145 strike: Extended target at 7.7% above
- $150 strike: Aggressive target at 11.4% above
The current price sits directly at the $135 mega-gamma level - this creates a "pinning effect" where price tends to gravitate toward high gamma strikes. Breaking above $135 decisively could trigger rapid movement to $140.
🎪 Catalysts
⚡ Upcoming Events
- October 30, 2025 - Core Scientific Merger Vote 🗳️
- Special shareholder meeting for $9B all-stock acquisition
- Major shareholders opposing the deal
- If approved: CRWV gains massive infrastructure control
-
If rejected: Alternative expansion strategies needed
-
November 11-14, 2025 - Q3 Earnings 📊
- Deutsche Bank adds to Catalyst Call Buy list expecting strong Q3 results
- Focus on margin improvements and profitability path
- Updated 2026 guidance critical for Meta contract ramp
✅ Recently Secured Wins
- $14.2B Meta Partnership
- Multi-year cloud computing deal through 2031
-
Massive revenue diversification from Microsoft/OpenAI concentration
-
$22.4B OpenAI Commitment
- Extended partnership securing decade-long revenue
-
Total backlog now exceeds $44B
-
NVIDIA GB300 Deployment
- First to deploy cutting-edge hardware
- Maintains competitive edge in AI compute
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on gamma levels and catalyst positioning:
🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)
Target: $145-150
- Merger approval + strong Q3 earnings
- Meta contract exceeds expectations
- Break above $135 gamma wall triggers squeeze to $145 resistance
- Extended move possible to $150 (major gamma level)
😐 Base Case (50% chance)
Target: $130-140
- Price stays pinned between major gamma levels
- Merger uncertainty keeps range-bound action
- Strong support at $130, resistance at $135-136
- Options market expects this consolidation
😰 Bear Case (25% chance)
Target: $120-125
- Merger rejection causes sell-off
- Tests $125 support (secondary gamma level)
- Worst case sees $120 (10% down) with strong put support
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative Play: "Merger Hedge"
- Sell Nov 21 $140 calls for $6.50 premium
- Collect income while stock consolidates
- Protected if merger drama causes volatility
- Risk: Missing upside above $140
⚖️ Balanced Play: "Gamma Surf"
- Buy Oct 17 $135 calls at $8.23 (following the whale!)
- Play the break above gamma wall
- Stop loss if falls below $132
- Target: $140 (4% move = 50% gain on calls)
🚀 Aggressive Play: "Merger Moonshot"
- Buy Nov 21 $145 calls at $4.20
- Bet on merger approval + earnings beat
- Maximum risk: Premium paid
- Potential 200% gain if hits $150
⚠️ Risk Factors
Real talk - here's what could go wrong:
- Merger failure: Two Seas Capital actively opposing - rejection tanks stock
- Execution risk: Heavy debt load + current unprofitability
- AI bubble concerns: If AI demand disappoints, CRWV gets crushed
- Competition: Major cloud players could squeeze margins
- Key contract risk: Over-reliance on Meta/OpenAI partnerships
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: Someone with DEEP pockets just placed a sophisticated $48M options bet that essentially says "CRWV is going somewhere fast, but we're hedging our bets." The 1,189x unusual activity combined with the October 30th merger vote creates a powder keg situation.
Action Plan:
- If you own it: Consider selling some calls above $140 to collect premium during consolidation
- If you're watching: Wait for break above $135 with volume for entry
- If you're bearish: The $130 put support is strong - wait for catalyst failure
Mark your calendar: October 30th merger vote is THE binary event. Options market is pricing in 8-10% move either direction. The smart money is playing both sides - maybe we should too!
Remember: This isn't your average options flow - at 1,189x normal size, this is institutional repositioning ahead of major catalysts. Trade accordingly! 💪
Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk. The unusual activity detected does not guarantee future price movements. Always conduct your own research and manage position sizes appropriately.