CRWV Deep ITM Call Tsunami - $14M AI Cloud Infrastructure Play! (2025-09-28)

📅 September 29, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just loaded up $14 MILLION worth of deep in-the-money call options on CoreWeave, the AI cloud infrastructure powerhouse! This massive institutional bet on December $105 calls (with CRWV trading at $123.61) shows big money positioning for continued AI infrastructure dominance. With a $30.1B revenue backlog and major partnerships with OpenAI and NVIDIA, this isn't just another cloud play - it's a pure bet on AI's explosive growth! 🚀

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💰 Company Overview

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) is an AI-specialized cloud infrastructure provider with:
- Market Cap: $59.6 Billion
- Industry: Services-Prepackaged Software
- Primary Business: GPU-as-a-Service platforms optimized for AI workloads
- Key Differentiator: Bare-metal access to NVIDIA's latest GPUs with AI-tailored infrastructure

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📊 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

The Tape (September 29, 2025 @ 11:36:23):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
11:36:23	CRWV	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-12-19	$14M	$105	4.5K	422	4,500	$123.61	$31.70

Option Symbol: CRWV20251219C105

🤔 What This Actually Means

This deep ITM call purchase is a bullish power move! Here's what's happening:

• Deep ITM Strategy: With strike at $105 and stock at $123.61, these calls have $18.61 of intrinsic value
• Smart Money Protection: Deep ITM provides downside cushion while maintaining upside exposure
• Volume to OI Ratio: 10.7x (4,500 volume vs 422 OI) - massive unusual activity signal!
• Time Value: Paying $31.70 with $18.61 intrinsic = $13.09 time value for 81 days
• Delta Play: These deep ITM calls likely have 0.80+ delta - almost like owning stock but with leverage

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREME (979x average size!) - This happens maybe once a year! The $14M premium is nearly 1,000 times larger than typical CRWV option trades. We're talking serious institutional money here!

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

CoreWeave has been on an absolute tear with +205.7% YTD return! After IPO'ing at $40 in March, the stock has more than tripled to current levels around $122. The chart shows strong momentum with:

• All-time high: $185 reached in June before healthy consolidation
• Strong support: Building base around $100-$110 level
• Recent breakout: September rally from $90 lows showing renewed buying interest
• Volume patterns: Increasing institutional accumulation in recent weeks

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $122.31

The gamma chart reveals critical price magnets where options activity is concentrated:

🛡️ Support Levels (Blue Bars Below Price):
- $120 - Strongest support with highest gamma concentration (immediate floor)
- $115 - Secondary support level
- $105 - Deep support coinciding with the strike of today's massive call purchase
- $100 - Major psychological and gamma support floor

🎯 Resistance Levels (Orange Bars Above Price):
- $125 - Immediate resistance (2.1% above current)
- $130 - Strong resistance with heavy call gamma (6.2% upside)
- $135 - Major resistance level (10.3% upside)
- $140 - Extended target with significant call concentration (14.3% upside)
- $145 - Ultimate bull target (18.4% upside)

The heavy gamma at $120-125 creates a "sticky zone" where price tends to gravitate - perfect for the deep ITM call buyer to accumulate with reduced volatility risk!

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🎪 Catalysts

⏰ Upcoming Events

Q3 2025 Earnings - November 12, 2025
- Next earnings date confirmed for November 12
- Q3 guidance: Revenue $1.26-$1.30 billion per TipRanks
- Street expecting continued triple-digit growth

Infrastructure Expansion Milestones
- Scaling from 470 MW to over 900 MW active power by end of 2025 per Yahoo Finance
- $6 billion Lancaster, PA data center coming online
- Core Scientific acquisition adding 1.1 GW of power capacity

NVIDIA Blackwell GPU Rollout
- Next-gen Blackwell GPUs providing performance advantages
- CoreWeave has priority access through $6.3B NVIDIA agreement

✅ Recently Completed

OpenAI Mega-Deal Expansion
- Original $11.9 billion contract with additional $4 billion expansion
- Total OpenAI commitment now approaching $16 billion

Q2 2025 Earnings Beat
- Revenue of $1.21 billion, up 207% YoY
- Raised full-year 2025 guidance to $5.15-$5.35 billion
- $30.1 billion revenue backlog provides multi-year visibility

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels and catalyst analysis:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $140-$145 (Gamma resistance levels)

• Earnings beat drives re-rating higher
• AI infrastructure demand accelerates beyond expectations
• Wells Fargo's $170 target gains traction
• Deep ITM calls profit handsomely at these levels

😐 Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $125-$135 (Near-term gamma resistance)

• Steady execution on growth plans
• Stock grinds higher toward $145.31 average analyst target
• Gamma resistance at $130-$135 caps near-term upside
• Today's call buyer still profits nicely

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $115-$120 (Gamma support zone)

• Market-wide tech correction
• Profit-taking after 200%+ YTD run
• Strong gamma support at $120 provides floor
• Deep ITM calls retain most value with intrinsic cushion

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Covered Call Income

Play: Buy 100 CRWV shares, sell monthly $130 calls

• Collect premium while holding winner
• Capped upside at $130 (still 6% gain)
• Monthly income from high IV environment

Why this works: Gamma resistance at $130 makes it ideal strike for income generation

⚖️ Balanced: Bull Call Spread

Play: Buy $125 calls, sell $135 calls (Dec expiration)

• Lower cost than outright calls
• Profits from move to gamma resistance
• Defined risk with 3:1 reward potential

Why this works: Captures the move between gamma levels with less capital

🚀 Aggressive: Follow the Whale

Play: Buy $110 or $115 calls (Dec or Jan expiration)

• Slightly OTM for leverage
• Rides the institutional momentum
• Lower entry than today's whale

Why this works: If smart money is buying $105s at $31.70, cheaper strikes offer better risk/reward

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⚠️ Risk Factors

• Valuation concerns: Trading at 10-12x 2025 revenue - rich even for AI play
• Profitability timeline: Still losing money ($291M loss in Q2) despite strong revenue
• Capital intensity: Requires $20-23B capex for 2025 expansion plans
• Competition heating up: AWS, Azure, Google expanding AI capabilities
• Execution risk: Rapid scaling could face operational challenges
• Lock-up expiration: IPO lock-ups could create selling pressure

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: When someone drops $14 MILLION on deep ITM calls, they're not gambling - they're positioning with conviction! This trade screams "institutional accumulation" ahead of the November 12th earnings and continued AI infrastructure buildout.

If you own CRWV: Hold tight! The gamma setup shows strong support at $120 with room to $135-$140

If you're watching: The $120-$125 zone is your entry window - that's where the big money is defending

If you're bearish: Wait until after earnings - the gamma support and institutional buying make shorting dangerous here

Mark your calendar: November 12th earnings will be the next major catalyst. With a $30B backlog and partnerships with every major AI player, CoreWeave is positioned as the pure-play on AI infrastructure growth!

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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About CoreWeave: CoreWeave Inc is a modern cloud infrastructure technology company that offers the CoreWeave Cloud Platform consisting of proprietary software and cloud services, specializing in GPU-accelerated computing for AI workloads with a market cap of $59.6 billion in the services-prepackaged software sector.