CRCL: $138M Deep ITM Put Position - Synthetic Short

November 13, 2025 | Unusual Activity Detected

The Quick Take

Someone just deployed a $138 MILLION bearish put position on CRCL at 14:44:16 today, buying deep in-the-money puts across two strikes: $102M in $200 puts expiring Nov 21st and $36M in $125 puts expiring Nov 14th. With CRCL trading at $84.38, these puts are already $115.62 and $40.62 in-the-money respectively, functioning like synthetic short stock positions with built-in downside acceleration. Translation: Someone is making a massive leveraged bet that CRCL continues crashing - or they're locking in profits on a short position using protective puts as an exit strategy.

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Company Overview

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) is the issuer of USDC, the second-largest U.S. dollar stablecoin with $73.7 billion in circulation as of Q3 2025:

• Market Cap: $19.22 billion
• Industry: Financial Services / Cryptocurrency Infrastructure
• Current Price: $84.38 (down 72% from June 2025 peak of $299)
• Primary Business: USDC stablecoin issuance, earning revenue from interest on reserves backing the stablecoin
• Recent Performance: Down 35% over the past 3 months despite beating Q3 earnings expectations

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The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 13, 2025 @ 14:44:16):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
14:44:16	CRCL	ASK	BUY	PUT $200	2025-11-21	$102M	$200	10K	3.1K	10,000	$84.38	$115.75
14:44:16	CRCL	ASK	BUY	PUT $125	2025-11-14	$36M	$125	8.9K	1.8K	8,900	$84.38	$40.60

What This Actually Means

This is deep in-the-money put buying - a sophisticated bearish strategy with two possible interpretations. Here's what went down:

• Massive premium paid: Combined $138M ($102M + $36M) - one of the largest single-day bearish bets on CRCL
• Deep ITM strikes: The $200 put is $115.62 in-the-money, the $125 put is $40.62 in-the-money
• Extremely short dated: Nov 14th expiry is just 1 day away, Nov 21st is only 8 days out
• Size matters: 18,900 total contracts representing exposure to 1.89 million shares
• Near-delta-1.00: These deep ITM puts move almost dollar-for-dollar with stock like a short position

Two Possible Scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Synthetic Short / Continued Bearish Bet:
This trader is using deep ITM puts to create a synthetic short position. Buying the $200 put at $115.75 gives them nearly the same profit profile as shorting stock at $84.25 ($200 strike - $115.75 premium), but with defined risk if CRCL somehow rallies. Every $1 drop in CRCL = ~$1 profit (delta near -1.00). This is a massive leveraged bearish bet that CRCL continues its 72% decline from IPO peak.

Scenario 2 - Protective Exit Strategy:
Alternatively, this could be someone who shorted CRCL much higher (around $200 or $125) and is now using these deep ITM puts to lock in profits without closing the short. By buying puts at their original short price, they guarantee they can deliver shares at those levels even if CRCL somehow rockets higher. This would be a sophisticated way to lock in a 58-137% short profit.

The dual-strike structure and massive size suggest this is likely Scenario 1 - a continuation bet that CRCL crashes further, possibly related to the December lock-up expiration, regulatory concerns, or USDC competition fears.

Unusual Score: EXTREME (Z-scores of 45.56 and 37.22) - These trades are literally off the charts unusual for CRCL. The $102M position represents one of the largest bearish bets on this stock since inception.

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Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

CRCL has been absolutely crushed since its June 2025 IPO - down 72% from peak of $299 with current price of $84.38. The chart tells a brutal story of relentless selling pressure:

Key observations:
- Post-IPO disaster: After peaking at $299 in June, CRCL has been in freefall
- Failed rallies: Every bounce attempt has been sold aggressively
- Volume spikes on down days: Classic distribution pattern showing institutional selling
- Support breaking: Stock recently broke below $85 support, now testing $80
- Declining volatility: Despite the drop, volatility is compressing - calm before the storm?

The technical picture is unambiguous: this is a stock in a severe downtrend with no signs of bottoming. The option buyer is clearly betting this trend accelerates dramatically.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $81.62

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price levels that could govern near-term price action:

Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $80 - Strongest support with 5.02B total gamma exposure (4.62B put gamma) - THIS IS THE LINE IN THE SAND
- $75 - Secondary support at 1.90B gamma (1.61B put gamma)
- $70 - Deep support at 1.05B gamma (0.89B put gamma)

Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $83 - Immediate ceiling with 1.56B gamma (1.34B put gamma)
- $85 - Major resistance at 4.32B gamma (4.03B put gamma) - second strongest level
- $90 - Heavy resistance zone with 6.11B gamma (4.62B put gamma) - STRONGEST OVERALL LEVEL

What this means for traders:

CRCL is sitting RIGHT ON TOP of its strongest support at $80 with 5.02B gamma. This is make-or-break territory. If the stock breaks below $80, there's not much support until $75, then a 5-point gap to $70. The put buyers are clearly betting that $80 breaks and the stock cascades lower quickly.

Notice the massive resistance at $90 (6.11B gamma) - this acts like a ceiling preventing any meaningful rally attempts. The net GEX bias is bearish (-14.65B put gamma vs call gamma), confirming the market is positioned for downside.

Net GEX Bias: Strongly Bearish (21.53B call gamma vs 36.17B put gamma = -14.65B net) - Market makers are positioned for downside volatility.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• Weekly (Nov 14 - 1 day): ±$3.97 (±4.62%) → Range: $82.99 - $90.52
• Monthly OPEX (Nov 21 - 8 days): ±$8.07 (±9.39%) → Range: $77.89 - $94.04
• Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 36 days): ±$15.11 (±17.58%) → Range: $70.33 - $101.60
• LEAPS (Dec 2026 - 400 days): ±$46.58 (±54.18%) → Range: $43.70 - $149.39

Translation for regular folks:

The options market is pricing in modest moves over the short term - only 4.6% by tomorrow and 9.4% through Nov 21st expiration. This is CRITICAL because the put buyer paid for strikes that require MUCH LARGER moves:

• For the $125 puts to profit by tomorrow, stock needs to drop below $84.40 (current is $84.38) - essentially flat
• For the $200 puts to profit by Nov 21st, stock needs to drop below $84.25 - also nearly flat

Key insight: The put buyer is betting on a MASSIVE move that the broader options market is NOT pricing in. They're essentially saying "the market is wrong about CRCL's stability - something catastrophic is coming." The weekly implied range only goes down to $83, but these puts need the stock to stay below $84 to have any value.

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Catalysts

Immediate Catalysts (Next 7 Days)

IPO Lock-up Expiration - December 2, 2025 (19 DAYS AWAY!)

Circle's IPO lock-up period expires on December 2, 2025 (180 days post-IPO). This could unleash MASSIVE selling pressure:

• Early Release Already Happened: JP Morgan released 11.5M shares in August after stock traded 15% above IPO for 5 days
• Secondary Offering Precedent: 10M share offering in August caused 5% drop
• Stock Already Crushed: Down 40% from June high of $198.62 to September low of $127.13 before earnings
• Insider Selling Likely: CEO Allaire and shareholders already sold in August offering, suggesting little confidence

Why this matters for the put trades: Lock-up is December 2nd, but the market may start selling in anticipation starting NOW. The put buyer could be front-running this massive supply event. With 1-8 days to expiration, they're betting the selling pressure begins immediately rather than waiting until December.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (ONGOING HEADWIND)

Circle's business model is completely dependent on interest income from USDC reserves. Each 25 basis point cut reduces EBITDA by ~$100M:

• Total Projected Cuts: 100 basis points through 2026
• Revenue Impact: $618M hit (23% of total revenue) if cuts realized
• Q3 Impact Already Visible: Reserve return rate fell 96 bps to 4.15% in Q3
• December FOMC Meeting: Another 25 bps cut likely on December 18th

Recent Operating Expense Guidance Increase (November 12th)

Just yesterday, Circle reported Q3 earnings and raised operating expense guidance to $495-510M from $475-490M. Despite beating earnings, the stock fell 12.21% on cost concerns:

• Baird Downgrade: Lowered price target to $110 from $144 on November 13th citing cost concerns
• Margin Pressure: Rising costs + declining interest income = profit squeeze
• Market Reaction: Immediate 12% drop shows market is worried

Near-Term Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

Arc Blockchain Mainnet Launch (2026)

Circle launched its Arc blockchain public testnet on October 28, 2025 with 100+ institutional partners including BlackRock, Visa, HSBC, Mastercard, Goldman Sachs:

• Mainnet Target: 2026 (specific date not announced)
• StableFX Platform: Launched onchain FX engine on November 13, 2025
• Native Token: Company exploring token launch to drive network participation
• Strategic Importance: Diversifies revenue beyond interest income dependency

Upside potential: If Arc succeeds, it positions Circle as blockchain infrastructure provider with recurring revenue independent of interest rates.

Downside risk: Development delays, lack of adoption, or technical issues could further damage credibility with stock already down 72% from peak.

Competitive Threats from Bank Tokenized Deposits

UK banks are launching blockchain-based deposits favored by Bank of England, threatening Circle's institutional appeal:

• Bank Advantages: Deposit insurance, interest-bearing, regulatory clarity
• USDC Disadvantage: No interest paid to holders, limiting retail appeal
• Institutional Preference Risk: Banks may prefer deposit-backed solutions over stablecoins

Tether Competition

Despite regulatory gaps, Tether maintains 61% market share vs Circle's 25%:

• Network Effects: $137.5B USDT circulation vs $73.7B USDC
• Liquidity Advantage: USDT 2.4x larger provides better pricing power
• Growth Gap Narrowing: USDC grew 78% in 2024 vs Tether's 50%, but still trailing overall

Q4 2025 Earnings - April 1, 2026

Next earnings release expected April 1, 2026. Key metrics to watch:

• Impact of Q4 rate cuts on reserve income
• Operating expense execution vs raised guidance
• USDC circulation growth trajectory
• Progress on "Other Revenue" diversification ($90-100M FY target)

Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Revenue Concentration Crisis

Nearly 100% of revenue comes from USDC reserve interest, creating existential risk:

• $618M Revenue Hit Projected: From 100 bps Fed cuts (23% of revenue)
• Diversification Minimal: "Other Revenue" only $90-100M guidance (12-13% of total)
• Margin Compression: Reserve return rate fell 96 bps to 4.15% in Q3
• No Viable Alternatives: Arc blockchain years away from material revenue contribution

Valuation Stretched Despite Crash

Even after falling 72% from peak, valuation remains concerning:

• Market Cap: $19.22B for a business with single revenue stream facing structural decline
• Revenue Quality: Interest income is not recurring like SaaS - it depends on macro rates
• Profitability Uncertainty: Rising opex + declining revenue = margin squeeze ahead

Lock-up Expiration Tsunami

December 2nd lock-up expiration could flood market with insider shares:

• Historical Pattern: Stock fell 40% from June to September partly on dilution concerns
• Recent Secondary: 10M share offering pressured stock -5%
• Insider Sentiment: CEO and shareholders already selling suggests low confidence
• Supply Shock Risk: Massive insider selling could break $80 support, triggering cascade

USDC Depegging Risk

While USDC maintains 1:1 peg, market confidence is crucial:

• Regulatory Uncertainty: GENIUS Act implementation still in progress
• Bank Run Scenario: If confidence breaks, USDC holders could redeem en masse
• Circle Solvency: Company holds reserves, but liquidity crunch could cause temporary depeg
• Precedent: SVB collapse in March 2023 briefly depegged USDC to $0.87

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Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios through November 21st expiration:

Bull Case (15% probability)

Target: $95-$105

How we get there:
- Market suddenly realizes CRCL is oversold at -72% from peak
- Major institutional partnership announced (beyond Arc testnet participants)
- USDC circulation growth accelerates beyond 40% CAGR target
- Treasury announces favorable GENIUS Act implementation rules
- Short squeeze as put buyers get trapped on failed collapse scenario

Key metrics needed:
- Break above $90 gamma resistance with volume
- USDC circulation hitting $80B+ milestone
- Positive regulatory developments

Probability assessment: Only 15% because the fundamental headwinds (rate cuts, rising costs, competition) haven't changed. Stock is in severe downtrend with no signs of bottoming.

Base Case (40% probability)

Target: $70-$85 range (CONTINUED DECLINE)

Most likely scenario:
- Stock continues grinding lower toward lock-up expiration
- Rate cut headwinds continue pressuring revenue outlook
- Operating expenses rise as guided, squeezing margins
- No major positive catalysts emerge in next 8 days
- $80 support breaks, stock drifts to $75 then $70 gamma levels
- Put buyers make modest profits on $125 puts, lose on $200 puts

Why 40% probability: This is a stock in a downtrend that's likely to continue declining, but not at the catastrophic pace the put buyer is betting on. Gradual erosion to $70-75 seems more likely than immediate collapse to sub-$50.

Bear Case (45% probability)

Target: $50-$70 (ACCELERATED COLLAPSE)

What could go wrong:
- Lock-up front-running: Market begins selling NOW in anticipation of December 2nd flood
- USDC depegging event: Even temporary depeg to $0.95 would crater confidence
- Regulatory setback: GENIUS Act implementation delays or unfavorable terms
- Major customer defection: Large institution switches from USDC to bank tokenized deposits
- Broader crypto selloff: Bitcoin/ETH weakness drags all crypto infrastructure stocks
- Fed hawkish surprise: Additional rate cuts accelerate, worsening revenue outlook
- Break below $80: Triggers cascade through $75 to $70, then momentum selling to $50s

Critical support levels:
- $80: Major gamma floor - CURRENTLY TESTING
- $75: Secondary support - 7.5% drop from current
- $70: Deep support - 16% drop from current
- $50: Disaster scenario - 40% drop from current

Probability assessment: 45% because the put buyer clearly sees something we don't. The combination of lock-up expiration, rate cuts, rising costs, and technical breakdown creates perfect storm. If $80 breaks, there's not much support until $50-60 range.

Put P&L in Bear Case:
- Stock at $70 by Nov 14: $125 puts worth $55, profit = $14.40/share × 8,900 = $128M gain (356% ROI!)
- Stock at $60 by Nov 21: $200 puts worth $140, profit = $24.25/share × 10,000 = $242M gain (238% ROI!)
- Stock at $50 by Nov 21: $200 puts worth $150, profit = $34.25/share × 10,000 = $342M gain (335% ROI!)

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Trading Ideas

Conservative: Stay Away (Recommended)

Play: Avoid CRCL entirely until this resolves

Why this works:
- Extreme volatility incoming: Someone just bet $138M on collapse - this isn't normal
- Lock-up overhang: December 2nd expiration creates massive uncertainty
- Fundamental deterioration: Rate cuts + rising costs = profit squeeze
- Technical breakdown: Stock testing $80 support, break likely given downtrend
- Better opportunities elsewhere: Why fight this mess when there are cleaner setups?

Action plan:
- Watch from sidelines until lock-up passes (December 2nd)
- Look for stabilization above $80 for 5+ consecutive days
- Wait for positive catalyst (Arc mainnet launch, regulatory clarity)
- Need to see operating expense control and revenue diversification progress

Risk level: None (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

Expected outcome: Avoid potential -20-40% drawdown. Maintain capital for better opportunities.

Balanced: Bear Put Spread (Copy The Smart Money)

Play: IF stock rallies to $88-90, sell tight bear put spread

Structure: Buy $85 puts, Sell $80 puts (December 19 expiration)

Why this works:
- Defined risk: $5 wide spread = $500 max risk per spread
- High probability: Stock already in downtrend, betting on continuation
- Gamma support target: $80 is strongest support - spread captures move to that level
- Time on your side: 36 days to expiration gives time for lock-up pressure to build
- Better entry on bounce: Wait for rally to resistance before entering

Estimated P&L:
- Pay ~$2.00-2.50 net debit per spread (enter only if stock at $88-90)
- Max profit: $250-300 if CRCL below $80 at December expiration
- Max loss: $200-250 if CRCL above $85 (defined and limited)
- Breakeven: ~$82.50-83.00
- Risk/Reward: ~1:1 which is acceptable for high-probability directional play

Entry timing:
- ONLY enter if stock rallies to $88-90 resistance first
- Skip if stock already below $82 (spread too close to at-the-money)
- Monitor $80 support - if it breaks before entry, abandon trade

Position sizing: Risk only 2-5% of portfolio (directional speculation)

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, bearish directional) | Skill level: Intermediate

Aggressive: Long Volatility Straddle (EXTREME RISK!)

Play: Buy straddle betting on MASSIVE move either direction

Structure: Buy $85 calls + Buy $85 puts (December 19 expiration)

Why this could work:
- Massive unusual activity: $138M put position suggests BIG move coming
- Lock-up catalyst: December 2nd expiration creates binary event risk
- Compressed volatility: Despite 72% decline, IV relatively modest
- Gamma inflection: Stock sitting at major support/resistance zones
- Either direction wins: Don't need to be right on direction, just magnitude

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):
- EXPENSIVE: Straddle costs ~$12-15 ($1,200-1,500 per straddle)
- Time decay: Theta burns -$50-75/day
- IV crush risk: If move happens slowly, IV collapse kills value
- Need BIG move: Stock needs to move 20%+ either way to profit
- Two-way risk: Could stay in $75-90 range and lose entire premium

Estimated P&L:
- Cost: ~$12-15 per straddle
- Profit scenario: Stock moves to $100+ or $65- (20%+ move) = $15-20 gain (100%+ ROI)
- Home run: Stock moves to $110 or $55 (30%+ move) = $25+ gain (150%+ ROI)
- Loss scenario: Stock ends $75-95 range = lose $7-12 (50-80% loss)
- Total loss: Stock flat at $85 = lose entire $12-15 (100% loss)

Breakeven points:
- Upside breakeven: ~$100 (need 18% rally)
- Downside breakeven: ~$70 (need 17% drop)

CRITICAL WARNING - DO NOT attempt unless you:
- Can afford to lose ENTIRE premium
- Understand volatility and time decay mechanics
- Can monitor position daily and take profits quickly
- Accept that you're betting AGAINST the current implied volatility
- Plan to close within 1-2 days of major move (don't hold to expiration)

Risk level: EXTREME (can lose 100% of premium) | Skill level: Advanced only

Probability of profit: ~35% (need exceptional move to overcome cost)

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Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

• Lock-up expiration in 19 days (December 2nd): 180-day IPO lock-up period expires, potentially flooding market with insider shares. Historical precedent: stock fell 40% from June ($198) to September ($127) partly on dilution concerns. Recent 10M share secondary offering caused 5% drop. If insiders rush to exit at current levels, could cascade through $80 support to $70 or lower.

• Revenue model facing existential crisis: Nearly 100% of revenue from interest on USDC reserves. Fed rate cuts projected to eliminate $618M (23% of revenue). Reserve return rate already fell 96 bps to 4.15% in Q3. "Other Revenue" diversification only $90-100M (12-13%) - insufficient to offset interest income decline. This is structural, not cyclical.

• Operating expense expansion squeezing margins: Circle raised opex guidance to $495-510M from $475-490M despite revenue headwinds. Stock fell 12.21% on November 12th on cost concerns. Baird lowered price target to $110 from $144 citing cost pressures. Rising costs + declining revenue = margin compression spiral.

• Competitive threats from bank tokenized deposits: UK banks launching blockchain-based deposits with Bank of England endorsement. Banks offer deposit insurance, interest earnings, and regulatory clarity that USDC cannot match. Institutional treasurers may prefer native banking solutions over stablecoins, threatening Circle's institutional appeal.

• Tether's 2.4x market share advantage: Despite USDC's regulatory compliance edge, Tether maintains 61% market share ($137.5B) vs Circle's 25% ($73.7B). Network effects create powerful moat. USDC grew 78% in 2024 vs Tether's 50%, but still significantly trailing. Market share gains are incremental, not transformative.

• USDC depegging risk (tail scenario): While USDC maintains 1:1 peg, confidence is fragile. SVB collapse in March 2023 briefly depegged USDC to $0.87. Any liquidity crisis, regulatory action, or bank run scenario could trigger temporary depeg, causing panic redemptions. Even brief depeg would devastate Circle's credibility and institutional adoption.

• $138M bearish bet signals insider knowledge: This isn't normal hedging - $102M in $200 puts + $36M in $125 puts with 1-8 days to expiration is EXTREME directional speculation. When someone risks this much on near-term collapse, they likely know something the market doesn't. Z-scores of 45.56 and 37.22 indicate this is historically unprecedented activity.

• Technical breakdown at $80 support: Stock testing strongest gamma support at $80 (5.02B total gamma). If this breaks, next support at $75 (7.5% drop), then $70 (16% drop). Downtrend since June peak shows no signs of reversal. Net GEX bias is bearish (-14.65B), confirming market positioned for downside.

• Arc blockchain years from revenue contribution: While Arc testnet launched October 28th with 100+ partners, mainnet not until sometime in 2026. Revenue from blockchain fees will be minimal initially. This doesn't solve near-term revenue crisis from rate cuts. Execution risk remains high - delays or adoption failures would further damage credibility.

• Valuation disconnect despite 72% crash: Even at $84, company valued at $19.22B for single revenue stream facing structural decline. This isn't a diversified fintech - it's a bet that interest rates stay high enough to generate profits from USDC reserves. If rates decline as Fed projects, the business model breaks. No comparable companies because Circle is first publicly-traded stablecoin issuer.

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The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just bet $138 MILLION that CRCL is about to completely implode within the next 1-8 days. This is one of the most aggressive bearish positions we've ever seen - buying $200 puts when the stock is at $84 is essentially betting on total destruction.

What this trade tells us:
- Catastrophic event expected: The trader believes something will cause CRCL to collapse by 40-50%+ in days, not weeks
- Lock-up front-running: Most likely betting market begins selling NOW ahead of December 2nd expiration flood
- Insider knowledge possibility: This level of conviction on near-term collapse suggests access to non-public information
- Binary catalyst: The 1-day and 8-day expirations indicate they expect a specific event, not gradual decline
- All-in bearish: This isn't hedging - this is pure directional speculation with defined timeline

This IS a "something is very wrong" signal - not business as usual.

If you own CRCL:
- Exit immediately if you're not comfortable with -30-50% downside risk in next 2 weeks
- Set HARD STOP at $80 (major gamma support) to protect remaining capital
- If holding for long-term Arc blockchain thesis, recognize you're fighting massive near-term headwinds
- Consider trimming 50-75% at current levels, keep only long-term core position
- Do NOT average down if $80 breaks - wait for stabilization

If you're watching from sidelines:
- DO NOT buy the dip until lock-up passes (December 2nd) and technical stabilization confirmed
- Wait for 5+ consecutive days above $80 with decreasing volume before considering entry
- Better entries likely at $70 or lower if $80 support breaks as expected
- Long-term bullish thesis (USDC growth, Arc blockchain, GENIUS Act) remains intact but timing is terrible
- Patience will be rewarded - there will be better entry points

If you're bearish:
- This $138M position validates bearish thesis but timing is VERY aggressive
- Safer approach: Wait for rally to $88-90 resistance, then sell bear put spreads
- Buying naked puts at current levels is extremely expensive and risky
- If $80 breaks with volume, that's confirmation to enter short positions
- Target $75, then $70, then $60 on accelerated breakdown

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- November 14 (Thursday) - Expiration of $36M in $125 puts
- November 21 (Thursday) - Expiration of $102M in $200 puts
- December 2 (Monday) - IPO lock-up expiration (THE BIG ONE)
- December 18 - Likely Fed rate cut announcement
- April 1, 2026 - Q4 FY2025 earnings report
- 2026 TBD - Arc blockchain mainnet launch

Final verdict: The fundamental story around Circle's USDC growth (108% YoY circulation growth to $73.7B), regulatory compliance advantage from GENIUS Act, and Arc blockchain infrastructure play is INTACT for patient long-term investors. However, near-term (next 1-3 months) faces PERFECT STORM of headwinds: lock-up expiration flooding supply, rate cuts crushing revenue, rising operating expenses squeezing margins, bank tokenized deposit competition, and technical breakdown at critical $80 support.

The $138M bearish bet is a CLEAR WARNING: Stay away until this resolves. When someone with this much capital bets on imminent collapse with such short timeframes, they're usually right about the direction even if timing is slightly off.

Wait for stabilization. Protect your capital. The opportunity will still be here in 2-3 months at better prices and lower risk. Don't try to catch this falling knife.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 45.56 Z-score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent CRCL history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. The $200 and $125 put strikes are extremely out-of-the-money and likely to expire worthless unless a catastrophic event occurs. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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About Circle Internet Group: Circle is the issuer of USDC, the second-largest U.S. dollar stablecoin with $73.7 billion in circulation as of Q3 2025. The company generates revenue primarily from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, with market cap of $19.22 billion in the Financial Services / Cryptocurrency Infrastructure sector.