COP Unusual Options Report - August 14, 2025: Same-Day Energy Momentum
EXTREME UNUSUAL ACTIVITY DETECTED in COP options expiring TODAY (August 15, 2025) with a sophisticated synthetic long position established through simultaneous call buying and put selling at critical strike levels.
COP Unusual Options Activity Analysis
ConocoPhillips | August 15, 2025 (Expiring Today)
Executive Summary
EXTREME UNUSUAL ACTIVITY DETECTED in COP options expiring TODAY (August 15, 2025) with a sophisticated synthetic long position established through simultaneous call buying and put selling at critical strike levels.
Key Highlights
- Combined Premium: $4.39M deployed across two-leg strategy
- Strategy: Synthetic long via $95 call purchase + $90 put sale
- Timing: Both legs executed at 11:51:56 AM (0DTE)
- Positioning: Aggressive bullish stance with downside obligation at $90
📈 YTD Performance
COP Year-to-Date Performance (2025)
Current Price: $95.65 | YTD Change: -4.43%
📈 YTD Performance
Current Price: $95.65 | YTD Change: -4.43%
Down 4.43% YTD, COP might be finding support here as energy markets stabilize, making this aggressive 0DTE synthetic long position particularly notable.
Unusualness Score: 9.7/10
UNUSUALNESS METER
[████████████████████░] 97%
EXTREME
Score Breakdown
- Volume vs OI Ratio: 94% of open interest traded (exceptional)
- Premium Size: $4M+ single trade (institutional scale)
- Expiration Timing: 0DTE positions (maximum gamma)
- Strategy Complexity: Coordinated multi-leg execution
- Market Impact: Significant for near-term price action
📊 Options Tape Breakdown
🐋 WHALE ALERT: Synthetic Long Position!
📈 Trade Metrics Dashboard
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total Volume | 134,000 contracts | Massive institutional flow! |
| Total Premium | $4.4M deployed | Hedge fund level capital |
| Spot Price | $95.15 | Current trading level |
| Strike Range | $90-$95 | ATM calls, OTM puts |
| Days to Expiry | 0 days | EXPIRES TODAY! |
| Strategy | Synthetic Long | Maximum leverage play |
🎬 The Actual Trade Tape
📊 Order Flow: Simultaneous execution at 11:51:56
🎯 Execution: MID (Balanced fills on both legs)
| Time | Side | Type | Strike | Exp | Volume | Premium | Spot | Fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:51:56 | 🟢 BUY | 📈 CALL | $95 | 2025-08-15 | 49,000 | $4M | $95.15 | $0.83 |
| 11:51:56 | 🔴 SELL | 📉 PUT | $90 | 2025-08-15 | 56,000 | $389K | $95.15 | $0.07 |
Trade Analysis Details
Trade 1: Call Purchase (Bullish Leg)
- Total Premium Paid: $4,025,500
- Strike vs Spot: At-the-money ($95 strike vs $95.15 spot)
- Volume/OI Ratio: 94.2% (49K volume / 52K OI)
- Greeks Exposure:
- Delta: +24,250 (assuming 0.50 delta)
- Gamma: Maximum (ATM on expiration day)
- Theta: -$402,550/day (full premium decay)
Trade 2: Put Sale (Income/Obligation)
- Premium Collected: $389,000
- Strike vs Spot: 5.3% out-of-money
- Volume/OI Ratio: 91.8% (56K volume / 61K OI)
- Downside Obligation: $7.695M if assigned
- Breakeven: $89.93 (after premium)
Risk Profile
- Seller obligated to buy 8.55M shares at $90 if COP closes below strike
- Premium collected provides minimal cushion (0.08% protection)
- Massive size suggests institutional risk appetite
Combined Strategy Analysis
Synthetic Long Position
The simultaneous execution creates a leveraged bullish position with defined risk parameters:
Strategy Mathematics
Net Premium Outlay: $4,025,500 - $598,500 = $3,427,000
Effective Leverage: 13.4M shares of directional exposure
Capital Efficiency: $3.4M controls $1.3B notional
Payoff Structure at Expiration (Today 4:00 PM)
| COP Price | Call P&L | Put P&L | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | -$4.03M | -$427.5M | -$431.5M |
| $90 | -$4.03M | +$599K | -$3.43M |
| $95 | -$4.03M | +$599K | -$3.43M |
| $96 | +$820K | +$599K | +$1.42M |
| $97 | +$5.67M | +$599K | +$6.27M |
| $100 | +$20.2M | +$599K | +$20.8M |
Breakeven: $95.71 (0.6% above current)
Maximum Loss: $3.43M (between $90-$95)
Profit Acceleration: Above $95 strike
Market Context & Catalysts
Intraday Technicals
- Current Price: $95.15 (testing resistance)
- VWAP: Likely near $95 given ATM strike selection
- Volume: Elevated with options activity
- Price Action: Consolidating near day's highs
Potential Catalysts (Same-Day)
- Energy Sector: Crude oil momentum
- Market Hours: 4.2 hours until expiration
- Gamma Effect: Dealers likely short gamma, amplifying moves
- Pin Risk: Significant around $95 strike
Implied Volatility Analysis
- 0DTE Premium: $0.83 for ATM = 0.87% expected move
- Implied Daily Move: ±$0.83 (market pricing contained movement)
- Skew Signal: Put sale at $90 suggests floor confidence
Institutional Positioning Insights
Strategy Interpretation
This appears to be a high-conviction directional bet with three possible scenarios:
- Momentum Continuation Play
- Trader expects COP to break above $95 resistance TODAY
- Using 0DTE for maximum leverage on anticipated move
-
Put sale finances portion of call premium
-
Event-Driven Position
- Possible knowledge of afternoon news/announcement
- Structured to profit from sharp move above $96
-
Downside protection via put premium to $90
-
Gamma Squeeze Setup
- Creating dealer hedging pressure at $95
- If price moves up, dealers must buy shares
- Self-reinforcing upward momentum potential
Risk Management Analysis
- Defined Maximum Loss: $3.43M (acceptable for institution)
- Asymmetric Payoff: 6:1 upside potential at $97
- Time Decay: Complete by 4:00 PM today
- Assignment Risk: Prepared to own shares at $90
Key Risk Factors
Immediate Risks (Next 4 Hours)
Highlights:
• Theta Decay: -$1M per hour on call premium
• Pin Risk: High probability of $95 pin given size
• Gamma Volatility: Extreme sensitivity to price moves
Additional 1 points omitted for brevity
Structural Risks
- Put Assignment: $7.7M obligation if COP < $90
- Opportunity Cost: $3.4M locked for speculation
- Market Risk: Broader selloff could trigger losses
Trading Implications
For Market Participants
If Bullish on COP:
- Consider $96-$97 calls for cheaper upside participation
- Watch for follow-through above $95.50
- Monitor volume surges as confirmation
If Neutral/Bearish:
- Avoid shorting near $95 (gamma squeeze risk)
- Put spreads below $90 may be mispriced
- Consider volatility plays if IV expands
Price Levels to Watch
- $95.00: Major gamma strike (pin magnet)
- $95.71: Strategy breakeven
- $96.00: Profit acceleration point
- $90.00: Put strike support/obligation
Conclusion
This represents exceptional unusual activity with clear institutional fingerprints. The combination of:
- Massive premium deployment ($4.4M)
- Same-day expiration timing
- Coordinated two-leg execution
- Near-complete OI consumption
...suggests a time-sensitive, high-conviction bullish bet expecting COP to move decisively above $95 before today's close. The put sale at $90 both reduces cost and indicates confidence in support at that level.
Probability Assessment:
- 35% chance of closing above $96 (profitable)
- 40% chance of $94-$96 range (max loss)
- 25% chance below $94 (partial loss recovery)
The 9.7/10 unusualness score reflects the extreme nature of deploying $4M in premium for positions expiring in hours, making this one of the most aggressive institutional bets observable in the options market.
Analysis generated at 12:30 PM ET, August 15, 2025
Data reflects trades executed at 11:51:56 AM
All options expire at 4:00 PM ET today