CNR: Someone Just SOLD $44 MILLION in Calls - Coal Giants Moonshot Capped!

📅 September 10, 2025 | 🌋 VOLCANIC Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Holy smokes! A massive institutional player just collected $4.4 MILLION in premium by selling 5,000 CNR calls at the $90 strike! 🐋 This scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score - that's literally UNPRECEDENTED, 2,166x larger than average! With CNR down -29% YTD but sitting at $72.01, someone's betting BIG that this coal merger titan won't rocket past $98.80 by December 2026. Time to dig into what they know! 👀

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🏢 Company Introduction

Core Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CNR) is a major producer and exporter of coal, operating longwall mining operations across North America. Born from the January 2025 merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources, CNR is now one of the largest coal mining companies in the region.

Key Company Stats: - 💰 Market Cap: $3.76 billion - 🏭 Industry: Bituminous Coal & Lignite Mining
- ⛏️ Business: Produces both metallurgical coal (for steel production) and high-CV thermal coal (for power generation) - 📍 Operations: 11 mines including 8 longwall operations across North America - 🚢 Export Infrastructure: Owns two strategic terminals on US Eastern Seaboard

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Check out this monster trade that hit the tape at 12:53 PM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
12:53:20	CNR	SELL	CALL	$90	$4.4M	5K	0	5,000	$72.01	$8.80

Option Symbol: CNR20261218C90
Expiration: December 18, 2026 (464 days away!)

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score -

Here's the translation for us regular folks:

The Call Sell (Bearish/Neutral Signal): - Collecting $8.80 per contract in premium - Betting CNR won't exceed $90 by December 2026 - Breakeven for buyer: $98.80 - Max profit for seller: $4.4 MILLION if CNR stays below $90

The Strategy Breakdown: - This is either a covered call from a massive shareholder - Or a naked call sell betting against a major rally - With 464 days to expiration, that's serious time decay working for the seller - Unusualness: 2,166x larger than average CNR option trade!

Translation: Someone with DEEP pockets thinks CNR's upside is capped around $90-98 over the next 15 months. They're happy to collect $4.4M betting against a moonshot! 💸

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

Looking at the YTD performance, CNR has been struggling:

Key Metrics: - 📉 YTD Return: -28.95% (Ouch!) - 📊 Current Price: $72.41 - 📈 Start of Year: $101.91 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -37.47% (hit in March) - 💪 Volatility: 7.34

Technical Levels: - 🎯 Current: $72.41 - 🚀 Strike Target: $90 (24.3% upside) - 💰 Breakeven for Call Buyer: $98.80 (36.5% upside needed) - 😰 YTD Low: ~$64 (support level)

Translation: CNR has been beaten down this year, but this whale thinks the recovery won't exceed $90-98 even with 15 months to work with! 🎯

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🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events 🚀

🏗️ Leer South Mine Restart - Q4 2025 - Expected to resume production after combustion incident - Cost reduction to low $90s per ton from current $94-98 range - Insurance recovery exceeding $100 million expected - Volume recovery for metallurgical coal segment

💰 Merger Synergies Realization - Ongoing - Raised synergy targets to $125-150M annually (up from $110-140M) - Integration progress accelerating - Material margin improvements expected

📋 Q3 Earnings - Late October 2025 - Consensus EPS: ~$1.00 (Q2 was -$0.70 due to merger costs) - Revenue expected around $1.1B - Watch for Leer South restart updates

📊 Q4 Earnings - February 2026 - Full year 2025 EPS consensus: $3.96 - 2026 EPS consensus: $11.44 (54% growth expected!)

Past Events (Already Happened) ✅

🤝 Merger Completed - January 2025 - CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources merged - Created 11-mine coal giant - $1 billion share repurchase program authorized

💥 Leer South Incident - January 2025 - Combustion incident halted longwall operations - Four-month equipment repositioning required - Insurance claims in process

📊 Q2 2025 Results - August 5, 2025 - Revenue: $1.10B (beat estimates) - EPS: -$0.70 (missed by $2.01 due to merger costs)

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive call sale and upcoming catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (25% chance)

Target: $85-$95 by December 2026 - Leer South restart exceeds expectations - Coal prices surge on Asian demand - Merger synergies beat targets - Still below the $98.80 breakeven for call buyers!

⚖️ Base Case (50% chance)

Target: $75-$85 - Steady recovery as operations normalize - Synergies realized as planned - Coal market remains stable - Call seller keeps entire $4.4M premium

😰 Bear Case (25% chance)

Target: $60-$70 - Leer South delays continue - Coal market weakens further - Integration challenges persist - Call seller wins BIG

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Coal Collector"

• Strategy: Sell $65 puts, 30-45 days out
• Premium: ~$1.50-2.00 per contract
• Why it works: Collect premium with 10% downside cushion
• Risk: Assignment if CNR drops below $65

⚖️ Balanced Play: "Recovery Spread"

• Strategy: Buy $75/$85 call spread for March 2026
• Cost: ~$2.50 per spread
• Max profit: $7.50 per spread (200% return)
• Why it works: Captures recovery upside with limited risk

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Fade the Whale"

• Strategy: Buy $90 calls for June 2026 (shorter dated than whale)
• Cost: ~$3-4 per contract
• Why it works: If CNR recovers faster than expected, these could print
• Risk: Total loss if CNR doesn't reach $93-94

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

• Operational Risk: Leer South delays could extend beyond Q4
• Coal Market Headwinds: Global energy transition accelerating
• Merger Integration: Complex integration of two major companies
• Regulatory Pressure: Coal industry faces increasing scrutiny
• China Demand: Asian coal demand could weaken

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made the BIGGEST options bet we've EVER seen on CNR - selling $4.4 million worth of calls that's 2,166x larger than average! This isn't your neighbor Bob - this is institutional money betting CNR won't exceed $98.80 even with 15 months to get there! 🐋

Here's your action plan:

If you own CNR: - Consider selling covered calls yourself - premium is JUICY - Watch the $85-90 resistance zone carefully - December 2026 gives plenty of time for recovery

If you're watching: - Any dip toward $65-68 could be an entry opportunity - Leer South restart in Q4 is THE catalyst to watch - Monitor coal prices and Asian demand trends

If you're bearish: - This whale agrees with you up to a point - Consider put spreads rather than outright shorts - $90-98 appears to be strong resistance

Mark your calendar: Q4 2025 (Leer South restart) and December 18, 2026 (option expiration) are going to be PIVOTAL! 📅

Remember: When someone sells $4.4 million in calls on a stock that's already down 29%, they're either incredibly confident about the ceiling or managing a massive position. Given CNR's coal market challenges and merger integration risks, this whale might just be onto something! 💎

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⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This whale-sized bet is extraordinary and not typical. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big money is doing!