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By Ainvest in options-flow —

CCOI: $4.2M Bullish Call Spread Detected (Sept 22)

Massive $4.2M institutional bet detected on CCOI. Someone just dropped $4.2 MILLION on a CCOI call spread this morning at 11:29:54! This sophisticated trade bought 10,000 contracts each of $20 and $30 strike calls expiring April 17, 2026 - a massive Unusual activity score: high/10. Detailed breakdow

🔥 CCOI Massive $4.2M Bullish Call Spread - Smart Money Betting on Turnaround! 🚀

📅 November 14, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $4.2 MILLION on a CCOI call spread this morning at 11:29:54! This sophisticated trade bought 10,000 contracts each of $20 and $30 strike calls expiring April 17, 2026 - a massive bullish bet on a beaten-down stock trading at just $17.65. With CCOI down 79% from its 52-week high following dividend cuts and credit downgrades, smart money is positioning for a dramatic recovery. Translation: Institutional investors are betting big that the wavelength services turnaround story will pay off!

📊 Company Overview

Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI) carries over one-fifth of the world's internet traffic on its network, providing high-capacity services to businesses:
- Market Cap: $819.3 Million (down from $4.2B peak)
- Industry: Communications Services
- Current Price: $17.65 (52-week range: $15.96 - $85.18)
- Primary Business: Dedicated internet access, virtual private networking, internet transit services, and emerging high-margin wavelength services

The company is executing a strategic pivot from legacy internet transit toward high-margin wavelength services (up 92.5% YoY) and IPv4 address leasing (up 55.5% YoY), while monetizing $144 million in data center assets acquired from Sprint.

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (November 14, 2025 @ 11:29:54):

Date Time Symbol Buy/Sell Call/Put Expiration Premium Strike Volume OI Size Spot Price Option Price
2025-11-14 11:29:54 CCOI BUY CALL 2026-04-17 $3.1M $20 10,000 - 10,000 $17.65 $3.10
2025-11-14 11:29:54 CCOI BUY CALL 2026-04-17 $1.1M $30 10,000 - 10,000 $17.65 $1.10

Option Symbols:
- CCOI20260417C20 (Long leg - $20 strike)
- CCOI20260417C30 (Short leg - $30 strike)

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a long call spread - a classic bullish strategy with defined risk! Here's what went down:

  • 💸 Net premium paid: $2.00 per spread × 10,000 = $2M net investment ($3.10 - $1.10)
  • 🎯 Bullish thesis: Expects CCOI to rally from $17.65 to $20-$30 range
  • ⏰ Strategic timing: 154 days to expiration captures Q4 earnings (Feb 26, 2026), data center sale (Q1 2026), and Investor Day (Q1 2026)
  • 📊 Size matters: 10,000 contracts represents 1 million shares worth ~$17.65M
  • 🏦 Institutional conviction: This is sophisticated positioning, not retail speculation

What's really happening here:

This trader is making a calculated bet on CCOI's turnaround story at a deeply discounted valuation. By buying the April 17 $20 calls and selling the April 17 $30 calls, they're paying $2.00 per spread for up to $10.00 profit potential - a 5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Maximum profit of $8M occurs if CCOI trades at or above $30 by April 2026. Breakeven is $22 (current price + $4.35 = 24% rally required).

Strategy detected: LONG_CALL_SPREAD (Bullish Speculation) - This is a directional bet that CCOI will rally significantly as the wavelength services pivot gains traction and the company deleverages through asset sales.

Unusual Score: 🌋 VOLCANIC (774x average size) - This happens maybe once a year for CCOI! The trade premium of $3.1M represents 774x the average CCOI option trade size of $4,003. This is literally in the top percentile of all CCOI trades - only surpassed by one larger trade at $2.6M in the past 30 days. Someone is making a MASSIVE conviction bet here.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

CCOI YTD Performance

Cogent Communications (CCOI) has experienced a brutal -78.6% decline YTD, falling from $82.59 on January 2, 2025 to current levels of $17.65. The chart tells a story of severe value destruction following disappointing Sprint customer churn and aggressive deleveraging.

Key observations:
- 📉 Catastrophic decline: Stock collapsed from $85 peak to $15.96 low - down 81% at the trough
- 💔 Multiple selloff waves: Major drops in August (Q2 earnings miss), November (Q3 results + dividend cut)
- 🔴 Broken support: Lost $60, $40, $30, and $20 support levels in succession
- 📊 Oversold extremes: Trading near 52-week lows with extreme bearish sentiment
- ⚠️ Bounce attempt: Small recovery from $15.96 low to $17.65 - early signs of stabilization?

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

CCOI Gamma S/R

Current Price: $16.20

The gamma exposure map reveals critical price levels that could govern near-term price action around this severely oversold stock:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):
- $15.00 - Major floor with significant put gamma concentration (recent 52-week low area)
- $12.50 - Secondary support if $15 breaks (catastrophic scenario)
- $10.00 - Disaster floor with high put gamma

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):
- $17.50-$20 - Immediate resistance zone with concentrated call gamma (this is the $20 April calls target!)
- $25 - Major ceiling with heavy call positioning
- $30 - Strong resistance at the $30 April calls spread's max profit point
- $35-$40 - Extended resistance if turnaround gains traction

What this means for traders:

The gamma data shows CCOI trading in a critical zone just above major $15 support. The heavy call gamma concentration between $17.50-$30 represents significant resistance levels where market makers will hedge by selling stock. However, if CCOI breaks above $20 with conviction, the path to $25-$30 could accelerate as dealers cover short hedges.

Notice anything? The call spread buyer struck EXACTLY at the major gamma resistance levels of $20 calls and $30 calls. These are the natural price magnets based on options positioning. Smart targeting of technical levels.

Net GEX Bias: The overall gamma positioning shows elevated put gamma at lower strikes (indicating support) and concentrated call gamma at $20-$30 (indicating resistance). The stock needs fundamental catalysts to overcome these technical barriers.

Implied Move Analysis

CCOI Implied Move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (Nov 21 - 7 days): ±$2.06 (±12.72%) → Range: $14.22 - $18.18
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (Nov 21 - 7 days): ±$2.06 (±12.72%) → Range: $14.22 - $18.18
  • 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (Dec 19 - 35 days): ±$3.38 (±20.86%) → Range: $11.65 - $19.18
  • 📅 April OPEX (Apr 17 - 154 days - THIS TRADE!): ±$7.56 (±46.70%) → Range: $5.79 - $23.01

Translation for regular folks:

Options traders are pricing in a 12.7% move ($2.06) by next week - massive volatility for a beaten-down stock! The market expects continued wild swings, reflecting uncertainty around the turnaround execution.

The April 17th expiration (when this $4.2M trade expires) has an upper range of $23.01 - meaning the market thinks there's a realistic possibility CCOI could rally to $23 over the next 154 days. This aligns perfectly with the call spread buyer's thesis: get CCOI above $20 (profitable) with max profit at $30 if the recovery accelerates. The 46.7% implied move reflects the binary nature of this turnaround story - either it works and stock doubles, or it doesn't and stays depressed.

Key insight: The elevated implied volatility (46.7% for LEAPS!) creates expensive options, but also reflects the magnitude of potential moves in either direction. This trade is betting that the actual move will exceed even these elevated expectations.

🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Immediate Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q3 2025 Earnings - Released November 7, 2025

Cogent reported Q3 2025 results that beat EPS expectations but missed on revenue and EBITDA:

  • 📊 Service Revenue: $241.9M (down 5.9% YoY, down 1.7% sequentially) - missed estimates
  • 💰 Net Loss Per Share: $(0.87) vs. consensus of $(1.02) - 14.6% beat
  • 📉 Adjusted EBITDA: $73.78M (30.5% margin) - missed $77.3M estimate by 4.6%
  • ✅ Operating Cash Flow: $3.1M (turned positive from $(44.0)M in Q2)
  • 🚀 Wavelength Revenue: $10.2M (up 92.5% YoY, up 12.4% sequentially) - KEY GROWTH DRIVER
  • 📈 IPv4 Leasing: $17.5M (up 55.5% YoY, up 14.1% sequentially) - HIGH MARGIN

Market Reaction: Stock plummeted 21.5% to $30 immediately following results, with continued decline to $17.65 by today.

Dividend Slashed 97.5% (November 2025)

Cogent reduced its quarterly dividend from $0.805 per share to $0.02 per share, effective Q4 2025, to improve financial flexibility and accelerate deleveraging toward target 4x EBITDA leverage (current: 7.5x).

Credit Rating Downgrade (August 2025)

S&P downgraded Cogent to 'B' from 'B+', citing leverage surge to 7.5x as of June 30, 2025, up from 5.5x at year-end 2024.

🚀 Upcoming Catalysts (Next 6 Months - Within Option Expiration!)

Q4 2025 Earnings Release - February 26, 2026 📊

Cogent will report Q4 2025 results before market open on February 26, 2026. This is THE critical catalyst for validating the turnaround thesis. Key metrics to watch:

  • Wavelength Services Trajectory: Can growth continue at 90%+ YoY rates? (Q3: $10.2M)
  • IPv4 Leasing Expansion: Sustaining 55%+ growth? (Q3: $17.5M)
  • Sprint Customer Churn: Has the 24% annual decline rate stabilized?
  • Cash Flow & Deleveraging: Progress toward 4x leverage target from current 7.5x
  • Revenue Stability: Can total service revenue stabilize after 5.9% YoY decline?

Strategic Investor Day - Q1 2026 🎪

Management plans to host an Investor Day in first quarter of 2026 to detail long-term strategy. Expected topics:

Data Center Sale Closing - Expected Q1 2026 💰

The $144 million data center sale (two facilities from Sprint acquisition) is expected to close in early 2026. Proceeds directed toward:
- Debt reduction to improve 7.5x leverage metrics
- Working capital for wavelength network expansion
- Potential funding for additional facility conversions

This represents immediate validation of asset monetization strategy and provides tangible deleveraging progress.

Wavelength Services Network Expansion - Ongoing Through 2026 🌐

Cogent aggressively expanding optical wavelength footprint in attractive market:

Quarterly Revenue Progression:
- Q1 2025: $14.4M wavelength (up 42.0% YoY)
- Q2 2025: $15.3M wavelength (up 40.1% YoY)
- Q3 2025: $10.2M wavelength (up 92.5% YoY)

Additional Data Center Sales - Potential 2026 🏢

Management in active negotiations to sell or lease remaining 22 data centers from Sprint acquisition. Potential transaction value estimated at $1.4-$1.8 billion based on similar pricing to initial sale ($72M per facility average). This could be transformational for deleveraging and validating hidden asset value.

⚠️ Risk Catalysts (Negative)

Wavelength Scaling Execution Risk ⚖️

While wavelength revenue grew 92.5% YoY to $10.2M in Q3, this represents less than 5% of total service revenue. Achieving material contribution (20%+ of total) requires:
- Sustained 50%+ quarterly growth rates over multiple years
- Converting 4,687 opportunity backlog at significantly higher rates
- Competing against larger, better-capitalized players (Lumen, AT&T, Verizon)

Continued Sprint Customer Churn 📉

Acquired Sprint revenue declining at approximately 24% annually. Total customer connections down 10.3% YoY. If legacy business declines faster than wavelength growth, total revenue continues shrinking.

High Leverage & Credit Concerns 💳

At 7.5x leverage, Cogent faces:
- Rising interest expense on $2.6B debt load
- Covenant risk if EBITDA deteriorates further
- Limited capital markets access at 'B' rating
- S&P warning of potential further downgrades if leverage stays above 6x

Regulatory Threats ⚖️

While no current issues, historical net neutrality framework changes could impact interconnection economics and backbone provider positioning.

Insider Selling Pattern 🚨

Significant insider selling raises governance concerns:
- CEO Dave Schaeffer sold $22.5M worth (818,909 shares at $27.50) in August - described as "lender-enforced"
- Director Sheryl Kennedy sold 2,400 shares at $21.34 in November
- Zero insider buying over past year despite 79% stock decline

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios for this call spread:

📈 Bull Case (35% probability)

Target: $25-$35

How we get there:
- 🚀 Q4 earnings show wavelength revenue exceeding $12M with sustained 50%+ growth
- 💰 $144M data center sale closes successfully, demonstrating asset monetization capability
- 📊 Investor Day in Q1 2026 provides credible roadmap to 25% wavelength market share and revenue growth
- 🏢 Additional data center sales announced (potential $1.4-$1.8B value for remaining facilities)
- 📉 Sprint churn stabilizes, showing legacy decline bottoming
- 💳 Leverage trajectory improves toward 6x target, reducing credit concerns
- 📈 Breakthrough gamma resistance at $20-$25 on sustained buying

Call spread P&L: MAXIMUM PROFIT of $8M if stock reaches $30+ (400% return on $2M investment)

Key catalyst timing: Data center sale + Investor Day both expected Q1 2026, well before April expiration. Perfect timing for re-rating if execution delivers.

🎯 Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $18-$24 range

Most likely scenario:
- ✅ Q4 earnings meet/slightly beat with continued wavelength growth, but not explosive
- 💰 Data center sale closes as expected, providing modest deleveraging
- 📊 Investor Day well-received but awaits execution proof points
- 🇨🇳 Sprint churn continues but doesn't accelerate from current pace
- 💳 Leverage remains elevated at 6-7x, requiring more time to reach targets
- 📈 Stock recovers to $20-$24 range (13-36% upside) but faces resistance at $25
- 🔄 Trading within gamma resistance bands, awaits next catalyst

Call spread P&L: Partial profit of $0-$4 per spread ($0-$4M total) depending on final price. Breakeven at $22.

This is the "show me" scenario: Stock recovers from oversold levels as worst-case fears don't materialize, but full bull thesis requires more proof. The spread makes some money but doesn't hit max profit.

📉 Bear Case (20% probability)

Target: $12-$17

What could go wrong:
- 😰 Q4 earnings disappoint with wavelength growth slowing or revenue declining faster
- 🏢 Data center sale encounters delays or falls through
- 📊 Investor Day lacks credible long-term plan, markets remain skeptical
- 💳 Credit rating downgraded again if leverage doesn't improve
- 📉 Sprint churn accelerates beyond 24% annual rate
- 🔴 Breaking below $15 support triggers capitulation selling
- ⚖️ Covenant concerns emerge if EBITDA deteriorates further

Call spread P&L: MAXIMUM LOSS of $2M (100% of premium paid) if stock stays below $20

Important note: The call spread has defined, limited risk. Unlike naked calls, maximum loss is capped at the $2M net premium paid, regardless of how low CCOI trades.

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait for Q4 Earnings Clarity

Play: Stay on sidelines until after February 26, 2026 earnings provide execution visibility

Why this works:
- ⏰ Earnings in 104 days creates major catalyst uncertainty - too binary to commit now
- 📊 Turnaround stories require proof points - wavelength growth must sustain
- 💳 High leverage (7.5x) creates downside risk if execution disappoints
- 🎯 Better entry likely post-earnings if thesis validates
- 📉 Stock already down 79% - could go lower on continued disappointment

Action plan:
- 👀 Watch February 26 earnings closely for wavelength revenue, IPv4 growth, cash flow
- 🎯 Look for Q4 wavelength revenue >$12M (sustained high growth) as buy signal
- ✅ Confirm data center sale closure and deleveraging progress
- 📊 Monitor Investor Day presentation for credible long-term strategy
- 💰 Consider stock entry at $15-$17 if all catalysts align positively

Risk level: Minimal (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

⚖️ Balanced: Partial Stock Position with Defined Risk

Play: Buy small stock position at current levels with tight stop loss

Structure: Buy 500-1000 shares at $17-$18, set stop at $14.50 (recent support)

Why this works:
- 💰 Limited capital at risk with defined stop loss
- 🎯 Positioning for recovery rally if wavelength story gains traction
- 📊 Stock trading near 52-week lows ($15.96) provides favorable risk/reward
- ⏰ 154 days until April allows multiple catalyst opportunities
- 🛡️ Stop at $14.50 limits downside to 17-19% while capturing upside to $25-$30 (47-76%)

Estimated P&L:
- 📈 Upside target: $25 (first resistance) = +38% gain
- 📉 Downside protection: $14.50 stop = -17% max loss
- 🎯 Risk/reward ratio: 2.2:1 (favorable)

Entry timing: Scale in at $17.00-$17.50, add on strength above $18

Risk level: Moderate (defined stop loss) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: Replicate the Call Spread (ADVANCED ONLY!)

Play: Copy the institutional trade - buy call spread at similar strikes

Structure: Buy April 17, 2026 $20 calls, Sell April 17, 2026 $30 calls

Why this could work:
- 🎯 Follow the smart money - $4.2M institutional trade shows conviction
- 💸 Limited risk ($2.00/spread) with high reward potential ($10 max profit = 5:1)
- 📊 Defined risk structure caps losses unlike naked calls
- 🏦 Positioned for 13% move to $20 (profitable) or 70% move to $30 (max profit)
- ⏰ 154 days provides time for multiple catalysts to play out
- 📈 Leveraged upside if turnaround materializes

Why this could blow up (SERIOUS RISKS):
- 💥 100% LOSS if stock stays below $20 - entire premium gone
- 😱 Already down 79% YTD - could continue lower on execution failures
- 🚨 High leverage (7.5x) creates bankruptcy risk if deleveraging fails
- ⚠️ Dividend eliminated - no income support for stock price
- 📉 Analyst price targets averaging $29 still implies downside risk from current positioning
- 💰 Options expensive due to 46.7% implied volatility - paying premium for risk
- 🎢 Binary catalyst events (earnings, data center sale, Investor Day) create win-or-lose scenarios

Estimated P&L (based on current pricing):
- 💰 Cost: ~$2.00 per spread (net debit after buying $20 calls, selling $30 calls)
- 📈 Max profit: $8.00 per spread if CCOI ≥ $30 at expiration (400% return)
- 🎯 Breakeven: $22.00 (current $17.65 + $4.35 = 24.7% rally required)
- 📉 Max loss: $2.00 per spread if CCOI < $20 at expiration (100% loss)

Position sizing recommendation:
- 🛡️ Only risk 1-2% of portfolio on this speculative play
- 💼 Example: $10,000 portfolio = max $200 risk = 1 contract
- ⚠️ Do NOT "bet the farm" - this is a high-risk turnaround story

Risk level: EXTREME (binary outcome, 100% loss possible) | Skill level: Advanced only

⚠️ WARNING: DO NOT attempt this trade unless you:
- Understand call spreads and their mechanics completely
- Can afford to lose 100% of premium paid
- Have experience with turnaround situations and execution risk
- Accept that 79% YTD decline could continue if catalysts disappoint
- Recognize this is speculation on binary catalysts, not conservative investing
- Have thoroughly researched Cogent's business model and competitive position

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

  • 💳 Extreme leverage creates bankruptcy risk: At 7.5x net debt/EBITDA, Cogent has minimal margin for error. If EBITDA declines further or refinancing becomes difficult, covenant violations or distressed scenarios become realistic. S&P already warned of further downgrades if leverage stays above 6x.

  • 🎢 Turnaround execution highly uncertain: Wavelength services must grow from $10.2M quarterly to $50M+ quarterly to offset legacy revenue declines. This requires 10-15x growth while competing against Lumen, AT&T, Verizon. Historical precedent shows most carrier turnarounds fail.

  • 📉 Sprint customer churn continues unabated: Legacy business declining 24% annually with net-centric DIA down double-digits and corporate revenue down 11.4% YoY. If this accelerates, even strong wavelength growth can't offset the headwinds.

  • 🏢 Data center sale could fall through: The $144M transaction is non-binding letter of intent, not definitive agreement. If it fails to close or remaining 22 facilities prove unsellable, the asset monetization thesis collapses and deleveraging path becomes questionable.

  • 🚨 Massive insider selling signals low confidence: CEO sold $22.5M at $27.50 (described as "lender-enforced"), zero insider buying despite 79% decline. When management sells at higher prices and won't buy at 70% discounts, that's concerning signal about private information.

  • 📊 Analyst skepticism persists despite low price: Average price target of $29 with 5 Hold ratings, 2 Sell ratings, only 1 Buy. Recent downgrades from Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UBS all cite execution concerns. Professional investors remain unconvinced.

  • 💸 No dividend support for stock price: 97.5% dividend cut to $0.02/share eliminated income attraction. Previous yield provided valuation floor - now pure capital appreciation play on uncertain turnaround.

  • ⏰ Binary catalyst events create win-or-lose outcomes: Q4 earnings (Feb 26), data center sale (Q1), Investor Day (Q1) all happen within option expiration window. Each is binary - execute perfectly and stock rallies, disappoint and it falls further. No margin for error.

  • 🎯 Gamma resistance at $20-$30 creates technical barriers: Heavy call positioning at spread strikes means market makers will sell into rallies to hedge. Needs fundamental momentum to overcome technical selling pressure.

  • 💰 Options premium expensive at 46.7% implied volatility: Paying significant premium for these calls due to elevated volatility expectations. If stock grinds sideways, theta decay erodes value even without price decline.

  • 🔴 Already at 52-week lows - can go lower: Just because stock is down 79% doesn't mean it can't fall another 50%. Plenty of carriers have gone to zero through bankruptcy. $15.96 recent low could break on continued bad news.

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made a $4.2M bet that Cogent's turnaround story is real - and they're smart enough to use a defined-risk call spread instead of naked calls. That shows conviction tempered with prudence.

What this trade tells us:
- 🎯 Sophisticated player expects CCOI to reach $20-$30 range by April 2026 (13-70% upside)
- 💰 They're willing to risk $2M for potential $8M profit (5:1 reward-to-risk)
- ⚖️ Using call spread shows discipline - limiting downside while capturing upside
- 📊 Timing suggests confidence in Q4 earnings, data center sale, and Investor Day catalysts

If you own CCOI:
- ✅ Strong hands required - this is a multi-quarter turnaround story requiring patience
- 📊 Validate thesis with Q4 earnings Feb 26 - wavelength >$12M and positive cash flow critical
- ⏰ Data center sale closure in Q1 provides tangible proof of asset monetization
- 🎯 If catalysts deliver, $25-$35 becomes realistic 6-12 month target
- 🛡️ Set mental stop at $14-$15 (recent support) to protect against execution failure

If you're watching from sidelines:
- ⏰ February 26, 2026 is the moment of truth - Q4 earnings will validate or refute turnaround thesis
- 🎯 Post-earnings clarity on wavelength trajectory, cash flow, and deleveraging progress needed
- 📈 Looking for confirmation of wavelength services sustaining 50%+ growth and $144M data center sale closure
- 🚀 Longer-term, wavelength market growing to $9.41B by 2030 and 4,687 opportunity pipeline are legitimate catalysts
- ⚠️ Current valuation ($819M market cap) requires successful execution - high risk but compelling upside if it works

If you're bearish:
- 🎯 Short case has merit given 7.5x leverage, 24% Sprint churn, and execution uncertainty
- 📊 Wait for earnings rallies to initiate short positions - shorting at 52-week lows risky
- ⚠️ Be aware that data center sales or positive wavelength news could trigger sharp short squeezes
- 📉 Put spreads ($20/$15 or $17.50/$12.50) offer defined risk way to play downside
- ⏰ Timing critical: If Q4 earnings positive, short thesis weakens significantly

Mark your calendar - Key dates:
- 📅 February 26, 2026 - Q4 FY2025 earnings report (104 days away)
- 📅 Q1 2026 (March-April) - Strategic Investor Day expected
- 📅 Q1 2026 (January-March) - $144M data center sale expected to close
- 📅 April 17, 2026 - Option expiration date for this $4.2M call spread (154 days)

Final verdict: This is a high-conviction, high-risk bet on a deeply distressed turnaround story. The institutional trade using a call spread (not naked calls) shows smart risk management - limiting downside to $2M while capturing up to $8M upside. At 774x average trade size, this is clearly someone with strong conviction and significant resources.

The thesis is simple but challenging: wavelength services and IPv4 leasing (combined growing 70%+ YoY) will grow fast enough to offset legacy decline, while asset sales provide deleveraging and validate hidden value. If it works, stock could easily double or triple from $17.65. If it doesn't, stock could fall to $10-$12 or lower.

This is NOT for conservative investors. Only consider if you:
1. Understand and accept 100% loss potential on options
2. Believe in management's ability to execute complex turnaround
3. Can tolerate extreme volatility (46.7% implied vol)
4. Have thoroughly researched the wavelength services competitive landscape
5. Accept this is speculation on binary catalysts, not prudent investing

For most investors, waiting for Q4 earnings clarity on February 26 is the prudent path. If wavelength growth sustains and data center sale closes, the risk/reward improves dramatically. If not, you've avoided a value trap.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 774x unusual score reflects this specific trade's size relative to recent CCOI history - it does not imply the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Cogent faces significant execution risk, high leverage (7.5x), and uncertain turnaround trajectory. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Turnaround stories have high failure rates - this is speculative positioning.

About Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI): Cogent carries over one-fifth of the world's internet traffic on its network with an $819 million market cap, providing high-capacity services to businesses in the Communications Services industry. The company is executing a strategic pivot from legacy internet transit toward high-margin wavelength services and IPv4 address leasing while monetizing data center assets.

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