By Ainvest in options-flow — 05 Sep 2025

CAR Unusual Options: $2.6M Long-Term Bull Call (Sep 5)

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🚗 CAR: Someone Just Placed a $2.6 MILLION Bet on Avis's Autonomous Future!

📅 September 5, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

A whale just loaded up $2.6 MILLION on CAR call options targeting $185 by January 2026! 🐋 This isn't your average trade - it's an 8/10 EXTREME unusual score, literally 213x larger than the average CAR option trade! With CAR already up 94% YTD and trading at $156.18, someone's betting BIG that Avis's revolutionary Waymo partnership and premium service expansion will drive shares even higher! 🚀

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

Here's the monster trade that hit the tape at 9:50 AM:

Time	Symbol	Side	Type	Strike	Premium	Volume	OI	Size	Spot Price	Option Price
09:50:42	CAR20260116C185	BUY	CALL	$185	$2.6M	2.7K	2.1K	2,700	$158.75	$9.60

Expiration: January 16, 2026 (133 days away!)

🤓 What This Actually Means

Real talk: This trade scored an 8/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's "once in a year" territory! 🔥

Let me break down what this whale is thinking:

The Call Buy Strategy: - Paying $9.60 per contract (total $2.6M premium) - Right to buy CAR at $185 - Breakeven: $194.60 - Current price: $156.18 - Needs 24.5% upside to breakeven - Unusualness: 213x larger than average CAR option trade!

Translation: Someone with serious conviction is betting that CAR's transformation story isn't just hype - they're putting $2.6 million where their mouth is! This isn't hedging, this is pure directional bullishness! 🎯

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

CAR YTD Chart

Looking at the YTD performance, CAR has been on an absolute rollercoaster:

Key Metrics: - 🚀 YTD Return: +94.15% (Almost doubled!) - 📊 Current Price: $156.18 - 📈 Start of Year: $80.44 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -73.26% (March low) - 💪 Volatility: 42.48%

Technical Levels: - 🎯 Current: $156.18 - 🚀 Strike Target: $185 (18.5% upside) - 📈 52-week High: $212.81 - 📉 52-week Low: $54.03

Translation: CAR has been volatile but trending up HARD! After bottoming in March, it's up over 100% from lows. This whale is betting the momentum continues! 📈

🎪 Catalysts

Upcoming Events 🔮

🤖 Waymo Autonomous Vehicle Partnership - 2026 Launch

Full autonomous ride-hailing service launching in Dallas
Already testing vehicles in Dallas streets
Avis handles all fleet operations, maintenance, and infrastructure
Plans to expand to multiple cities after Dallas launch
Revolutionary shift from rental company to mobility ecosystem leader!

💎 Avis First Premium Service - Rolling Out Now

Curbside pick-up and drop-off service
Dedicated concierge for premium customers
Current-model-year luxury vehicles only
Higher margins than traditional rentals

⚡ EV Infrastructure Expansion - Houston Airport Live

Partnership with EverCharge and SK Group
Large-scale EV charging stations deployment
30% emissions reduction target by 2030
Leading the industry in fleet electrification

📊 Q3 2025 Earnings - October 30, 2025

Guidance: At least $1B adjusted EBITDA for 2025
Q2 showed 29% EBITDA growth despite flat revenue
Fleet costs improving: $300/month (down 13%)

Past Events (Already Happened) ✅

Q2 2025 Results - July 29, 2025

Fleet Modernization Strategy - Implemented 2024-2025

Accelerated fleet rotation reducing costs
One-time $2.3B impairment taken
More predictable fleet costs going forward

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Based on the massive option flow and transformational catalysts:

🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)

Target: $200-$220 by January 2026 - Waymo partnership exceeds expectations - Premium service drives margin expansion - EV transition positions as industry leader - This whale's $185 calls print massively!

⚖️ Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $165-$185 - Steady execution on partnerships - Gradual margin improvement - Market recognizes transformation story - Stock approaches strike price by expiration

😰 Bear Case (20% chance)

Target: $120-$140 - Execution issues with Waymo launch - Travel demand softens - High debt levels concern investors - Whale loses most of the $2.6M premium

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Rent Collector"

Strategy: Sell $140 puts, 45-60 days out
Premium: ~$3-4 per contract
Why it works: Collect premium with 10% downside cushion
Risk: Assignment if CAR drops below $140

⚖️ Balanced Play: "The Transformation Bet"

Strategy: Buy $160/$180 call spread for December
Cost: ~$5 per spread
Max profit: $15 per spread (200% return)
Why it works: Limited risk, solid reward if CAR continues climbing

🚀 Aggressive Play: "Follow the Whale"

Strategy: Buy $185 calls for January 2026 (same as the whale!)
Cost: ~$9-10 per contract
Why it works: Same thesis as the $2.6M whale
Risk: Total loss if CAR doesn't reach $195

⚠️ Risk Factors

Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong:

Valuation Concerns: Up 94% YTD - lots of good news priced in
Debt Burden: $33.6B enterprise value vs $5.5B market cap
Waymo Execution Risk: Autonomous vehicles are complex - delays possible
Economic Sensitivity: Travel demand could soften in recession
Competition: Traditional rental companies and new mobility players

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just made a $2.6 MILLION bet on CAR that's 213x larger than average - that's not just unusual, it's EXTREME! 🌋

Here's your action plan:

If you own CAR: - Hold tight! This whale sees something big - Consider taking some profits above $180 - Watch the $185 level closely near January expiration

If you're watching: - Any pullback toward $145-$150 could be an entry - Waymo partnership launch is THE catalyst to watch - October earnings could provide next leg up

If you're bearish: - You're fighting against $2.6 million in conviction - Wait for clear breakdown below $140 - Watch debt levels and execution risks closely

Mark your calendar: January 16, 2026 (option expiration) and the Waymo Dallas launch in 2026 are going to be HUGE! 🚗

Remember: When someone bets $2.6 million on a stock that's already up 94%, they either know something we don't, or they're about to learn an expensive lesson. Given CAR's transformation from rental company to mobility ecosystem leader, my money's on the former! 💰

About the Company: Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ: CAR) is a $5.5 billion automotive vehicle rental and car-sharing services provider operating the Avis, Budget, and Zipcar brands. The company specializes in auto rental & leasing services and is transforming into a mobility ecosystem leader through strategic partnerships and technology investments.

⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This whale-sized bet is extraordinary and not typical. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big money is doing!