AVGO Bull Spread Bonanza - $16.5M Wall Street Chess Move! - September 24, 2025
Institutional traders just dropped $16.5M on AVGO options in an unusual 2,349/10 rated play. Someone just orchestrated a $16.5M complex spread strategy on Broadcom at 10:03:21 AM today! This institutional trader bought $8.8M in December $350 c Exclusive analysis includes whale po
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just orchestrated a $16.5M complex spread strategy on Broadcom at 10:03:21 AM today! This institutional trader bought $8.8M in December $350 calls while simultaneously selling $4.7M in $300 puts and $3M in $410 calls, creating a sophisticated risk-defined bullish play. With AI chip orders exploding and OpenAI partnership delivering $10B incremental revenue in 2026, smart money is positioning for controlled upside through year-end. Translation: Big players are betting AVGO marches higher but stays below $410!
💰 Company Overview
Broadcom Inc. is the sixth-largest semiconductor company globally with over $30 billion in annual revenue. Operating in the semiconductors & related devices sector, AVGO has expanded into various software businesses and now commands a $1.6 trillion market cap. The company has emerged as a dominant AI infrastructure player with custom chip solutions driving exceptional growth.
📊 The Option Flow Breakdown
The Tape (September 24, 2025 @ 10:03:21)
| Time | Symbol | Side | Buy/Sell | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:03:21 | AVGO | ASK | BUY | CALL | 2025-12-19 | $8.8M | $350 | 3.6K | 4.8K | 3,460 | $336.24 | $25.55 |
| 10:03:21 | AVGO | BID | SELL | PUT | 2025-12-19 | $4.7M | $300 | 3.5K | 3K | 3,460 | $336.24 | $13.55 |
| 10:03:21 | AVGO | MID | SELL | CALL | 2025-12-19 | $3M | $410 | 3.6K | 2.1K | 3,460 | $336.24 | $8.70 |
Total Premium Involved: $16.5M across 10,380 contracts
🤓 What This Actually Means
This is a risk-defined bull spread with put financing - basically the Rolls-Royce of bullish strategies! The trader:
- Bought deep OTM $350 calls for $8.8M - needs AVGO above $375.55 to profit
- Sold far OTM $300 puts for $4.7M - collects premium while expressing confidence above $300
- Sold way OTM $410 calls for $3M - caps upside but reduces cost basis significantly
- Net debit: ~$1.1M (extremely capital efficient for this exposure!)
- Max profit zone: $375-$410 by December expiration
- 86 days to expiration - plenty of time for AI catalysts to play out
Unusual Score: EXTREME (2,349x average size) - This happens maybe once a year! 🔥
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
YTD Chart
Broadcom is having a phenomenal year with strong momentum building into year-end. The stock has been consolidating after its recent run, setting up for the next leg higher as AI revenue acceleration continues. Current trading at $336.80 shows we're in prime position for breakout with multiple catalysts ahead.
Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis
Current Price: $336.80
The gamma profile reveals critical levels that validate this massive institutional positioning:
- 🔵 Major Support Levels (Put Gamma):
- $330: Strongest support with 19.2 total gamma - just 2% below current price
- $320: Secondary support at 12.5 gamma - 5% cushion
-
$300: Deep support matching the put strike sold - 10.9% downside protection
-
🟠 Key Resistance Levels (Call Gamma):
- $340: Immediate resistance with 18.0 gamma - less than 1% away!
- $350: Major resistance and call strike target with 15.4 gamma
- $360: Strong ceiling at 11.1 gamma
- $370: Extended target with 9.2 gamma
- $400: Ultimate resistance zone
The trader's strikes align PERFECTLY with gamma walls - selling puts at deep support ($300) and capping at extended resistance ($410). They're playing the expected range like a fiddle!
🎪 Catalysts
Upcoming Events
Q4 2025 Earnings - December 11-12, 2025
- MarketChameleon and Yahoo Finance confirm next earnings
- Guidance: $17.4B revenue (+24% YoY) with AI revenue at $6.2B (+66% YoY) per investor relations
- Eleven consecutive quarters of AI growth momentum
OpenAI Partnership Explosion - H2 2026
- $10 billion incremental AI orders from fourth customer (OpenAI)
- Near doubling of total AI revenue for 2026 per Morningstar analysis
- Shipments beginning at "strong pace" in 2026
VMware Integration Synergies
- VCF 9.0 deployment with $30B total contract value
- 90%+ of top 10,000 VMware customers migrated to platform
Recently Completed
Q3 2025 Results - September 4, 2025
- Beat expectations with AI chip sales growth
- Infrastructure software sales rising per Zacks analysis
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on gamma levels and catalyst timeline:
🚀 Bull Case (35% chance)
- Target: $370-$400 (Major gamma resistance zones)
- OpenAI partnership details exceed expectations
- AI revenue hits $20B+ in FY2025 as projected
- December earnings deliver massive beat
- VMware synergies accelerate faster than expected
😐 Base Case (50% chance)
- Target: $340-$360 (Current gamma concentration zone)
- Stock gravitates to high gamma area between strikes
- Steady AI growth continues without major surprises
- Range-bound action through December expiration
- Institutional spread profits from time decay
😰 Bear Case (15% chance)
- Target: $320-$330 (Gamma support floors)
- Nvidia's $100B OpenAI investment creates competitive pressure
- Valuation concerns at 53x P/E trigger profit-taking
- Market rotation out of high-multiple semis
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative Play: "The Income Collector"
- Sell AVGO20251219P320 for ~$5.50 premium
- Collect $550 per contract with 5% downside cushion
- Win if AVGO stays above $320 (strong gamma support)
- Risk: Assignment if drops below $314.50
⚖️ Balanced Play: "Mini Institution"
- Buy AVGO20251219C345 for ~$18.00
- Sell AVGO20251219C365 for ~$10.00
- Net debit: $8.00 ($800 per spread)
- Max profit: $1,200 if AVGO above $365
- Breakeven: $353
🚀 Aggressive Play: "Gamma Surfer"
- Buy AVGO20251219C350 straight up for ~$25.55
- Same strike as the whale!
- Massive leverage to AI catalyst surprise
- Risk: Entire premium if below $350 at expiration
⚠️ Risk Factors
Real talk - here's what could mess this up:
- Valuation stretched at 53x earnings vs sector average of 28x
- Nvidia competition with that massive $100B OpenAI war chest
- Customer concentration - too dependent on hyperscalers
- Regulatory scrutiny from mega-acquisitions could create headwinds
- Wide bid-ask spreads on options - check fills carefully!
🎯 The Bottom Line
Here's the deal: Someone with DEEP pockets just structured a brilliant play betting AVGO powers higher but stays under $410 through December. With $10B in OpenAI orders coming, AI revenue exploding 66% YoY, and earnings in 2 weeks after expiration, this looks like positioning ahead of major catalysts.
Action Plan:
- If you own it: Hold tight - institutional money sees higher prices ahead
- If you're watching: The $340 gamma wall is your entry signal if we break above
- If you're bearish: That $330 support better break or you're fighting the tide
Mark your calendar for December 11th earnings - that's when the real fireworks begin! Until then, this $16.5M position suggests we're range-bound between $330-$370 with upside bias.
Remember: Options can expire worthless. Size positions accordingly and never risk more than you can afford to lose! 🎰
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past unusual activity does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.