AMD Call Buying Spree - $56M Bullish Bet on AI Chip Dominance!

October 16, 2025 | Unusual Activity Detected

The Quick Take

Someone just loaded up $56M worth of bullish call options on AMD targeting March 2026! This massive institutional play at the $150-$155 strikes is a direct bet on AMD's AI chip deals with OpenAI and Oracle paying off. With the stock at $235 and these deep in-the-money calls, this trader is betting the AI wave keeps AMD flying higher. Translation: Smart money thinks AMD's AI story is just getting started!

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Company Overview

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) designs digital semiconductors for PCs, gaming, data centers, AI, and automotive applications:
- Market Cap: $387.21 Billion
- Industry: Semiconductors & Related Devices
- Business Focus: High-performance CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators (Instinct MI series), EPYC server processors
- Key Advantage: Direct competitor to NVIDIA in AI chips, winning major cloud deals

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The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (October 16, 2025 @ 15:33:20-21):

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	Type	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
15:33:21	AMD	MID	BUY	CALL	2026-03-20	$16M	$150	4K	4.4K	1,682	$235.10	$92.88
15:33:21	AMD	MID	BUY	CALL	2026-03-20	$15M	$155	4K	4.9K	1,682	$235.10	$88.80
15:33:20	AMD	MID	BUY	CALL	2026-03-20	$13M	$150	1.4K	4.4K	1,392	$235.10	$92.88
15:33:20	AMD	MID	BUY	CALL	2026-03-20	$12M	$155	1.4K	4.9K	1,392	$235.10	$88.80
15:33:21	AMD	MID	SELL	CALL	2026-03-20	$7.9M	$150	2.3K	4.4K	851	$235.10	$92.91

Net Position: Accumulated $56M in long call exposure across $150 and $155 strikes expiring March 20, 2026

What This Actually Means

This is a massive bullish accumulation of deep in-the-money calls! The trader:

• Bought $150 strike calls for $16M + $13M = $29M total
• Bought $155 strike calls for $15M + $12M = $27M total
• Small hedge sold 851 contracts at $150 for $7.9M
• Net bullish exposure: $56M with 5 months until expiration
• Deep ITM strikes ($150/$155 vs $235 current) = high delta exposure = acts like owning 6,000+ shares
• March 2026 expiration gives time for OpenAI/Oracle AI chip deployments to materialize

Trade Size Context: Size of a small hedge fund position - this is institutional money making a long-term AI infrastructure bet!

Unusual Score: SIGNIFICANT (4,000-5,500 contracts vs typical 100-200) - This happens a few times per quarter on major catalyst plays

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Technical Setup / Chart Analysis

YTD Performance Chart

AMD is absolutely crushing it this year with +94.4% YTD performance - nearly doubling from $120 to $235!

Key observations:
- Monster rally: From April lows around $80 to current $235 - that's a 194% move
- Recent breakout: Explosive October surge coinciding with OpenAI partnership announcement
- High volatility: 62.5% implied volatility signals continued big moves expected
- Momentum strong: Trading near YTD highs with volume confirming the move
- Max drawdown: -39.6% earlier in year now fully recovered and then some

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $234.56

The gamma chart reveals some fascinating dynamics around AMD's current levels:

Resistance Levels (Orange Bars - Call Gamma Above):
- $235 (strongest resistance): Net GEX of $5.6M - we're RIGHT AT THIS LEVEL NOW
- $237.50: Secondary resistance at $3.9M net GEX
- $240 (major wall): Heavy call gamma at $29M net GEX - big psychological level
- $250: Another significant resistance zone with $21.3M net GEX

Support Levels (Blue Bars - Put Gamma Below):
- $232.50 (strongest support): Net GEX of $10M - just 0.4% below current price
- $230: Major support floor with $17.3M net GEX
- $225: Secondary support at $230 level provides 4% cushion
- $220: Deeper support zone with solid put gamma protection
- $200: Major psychological support level

Market Structure:
- Net GEX Bias: BULLISH (Total call gamma $286M vs put gamma $126M)
- Price action: Currently testing gamma resistance at $235, next target $240
- Market maker positioning: Heavy call selling above means MM will hedge by buying stock on rallies
- Options magnet: The $240 level has massive gamma - price tends to gravitate toward high gamma zones

This gamma setup shows AMD is in a bullish consolidation zone with strong support below and clear resistance targets above. The massive call buying we're seeing aligns with breaking through these resistance levels!

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Catalysts

Upcoming Events

OpenAI AI Infrastructure Deployment - Late 2026
- Multi-billion-dollar deal for 6 GW of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs starting with 1 GW deployment (Source)
- Projected to contribute tens of billions in annual revenue by 2027
- OpenAI can acquire up to 160M AMD shares (10% stake) as part of partnership (Source)

Oracle Cloud AI Expansion - Q3 2026
- Oracle deploying 50,000 AMD MI450 series AI chips in hyperscale cloud infrastructure (Source)
- Expands through 2027 with potential for additional orders
- Marks AMD's breakthrough in enterprise AI cloud market

UBS Global Technology and AI Conference - December 3, 2025
- CEO Dr. Lisa Su presenting at major tech conference (Source)
- Expected updates on AI strategy, MI450 production ramp, and partnership details
- Historical catalyst: AMD conferences often provide positive guidance surprises

Barclays Global Technology Conference - December 10, 2025
- Second major investor presentation in December (Source)
- Potential for detailed financial modeling on AI segment revenue ($20-27B annual target)
- Analyst price target upgrades likely if strong guidance provided (Source)

MI350/MI450 "Helios" AI Rack Production Ramp - 2026
- Full-stack AI server rack deployment ramping through 2026
- Simplifies data center adoption for large cloud customers
- Expected to drive accelerated market share gains vs competitors

Recently Completed

Q2 2025 Earnings Beat - August 2025
- Record quarterly revenue at $7.7 billion driven by data center segment (Source)
- Data center revenue growing 50%+ year-over-year (Source)
- Strong Q3 2025 guidance with expectations for AI acceleration in H2

Server Market Share Milestone - Q2 2025
- AMD server market share surged to 39% from low 30s% range (Source)
- EPYC processors gaining traction in cloud and enterprise
- Clear path to 40%+ market share by year-end

OpenAI Partnership Announcement - October 2025
- Landmark deal announced mid-October driving stock surge (Source)
- Validates AMD's MI series competitive positioning vs NVIDIA
- Opens door for additional hyperscaler AI deals

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Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, catalyst timeline, and current momentum:

Bull Case (40% chance)

Target: $250-$280 by March 2026

Path to success:
- Breaks through $240 gamma resistance on strong volume
- December investor conferences provide upbeat AI revenue guidance
- Additional hyperscaler AI chip wins announced (Microsoft, Google, Meta potential)
- MI450 production ramp meets or exceeds expectations
- Analyst price targets move toward $300 (some already projecting this - Source)

Why $150/$155 calls print money: Deep ITM calls worth $95-125 of intrinsic value at $250, capturing $5-33 per contract gains (5-35% return)

Gamma support: $250 resistance becomes support once broken, creating launching pad

Base Case (45% chance)

Target: $220-$250 range through March 2026

Expected scenario:
- Consolidates in current gamma bands between $220-$240
- Gradual appreciation as AI chip deployments begin materializing
- Quarterly earnings show steady progress but no major surprises
- Market digests recent 94% YTD gains with healthy consolidation

Why $150/$155 calls still work: Even at $230, these calls retain $75-80 intrinsic value, limiting downside

Gamma dynamics: Strong support at $230 and $220 provides floor, resistance at $240/$250 caps upside

Bear Case (15% chance)

Target: $200-$220 by March 2026

Risk factors:
- AI chip demand concerns or deployment delays from OpenAI/Oracle
- NVIDIA announces competitive response that threatens AMD market share gains
- Broader semiconductor downturn on macro concerns
- Production issues with MI450 series or yields disappoint

Impact on calls: $150 calls still worth $50-70 intrinsic value at $200 - max loss limited to 25-30% due to deep ITM positioning

Gamma floor: $200 has substantial put gamma providing downside support

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Trading Ideas

Conservative: Ride the Wave with Shares

Play: Buy AMD stock at current levels with tight stop

Buy shares at $235, set stop-loss at $220 (gamma support)

Risk: $15 per share (6.4% downside)
Reward: Target $250-260 (10-11% upside) by December conferences

Why this works: Strong momentum, clear catalysts, gamma support provides floor. You get exposure without options time decay

Balanced: Follow Smart Money with Call Spreads

Play: Bull call spread targeting next gamma resistance (Dec 2025 or Jan 2026 expiration)

Buy $240 calls, sell $260 calls (Dec 2025)

Risk: $8-12 debit per spread max loss
Reward: $20 max profit if AMD reaches $260+

Why this works: Captures move through gamma resistance while limiting cost. December conferences catalyst before expiration

Aggressive: LEAP Calls for AI Mega-Trend

Play: Long-dated calls to leverage AI infrastructure buildout

Buy $240 calls or $250 calls (March 2026 - same expiry as whale trade)

Risk: $30-40 premium paid per contract
Reward: Unlimited upside if AI story accelerates

Why this works: Aligns with institutional positioning. March 2026 captures MI450 deployment phase. High leverage to upside moves

Note: Could also sell $200 puts to finance call purchases - collects premium while building position at support

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Risk Factors

AI Competition Intensifies
- NVIDIA still dominates with 80%+ AI accelerator market share
- Could respond aggressively on pricing or release competitive products
- AMD needs to execute flawlessly on MI450 production and deployment

Execution Risk on Major Deals
- OpenAI 6 GW deployment is massive - any delays could disappoint
- Oracle deployment on tight timeline - production/supply chain challenges possible
- Projected $20-27B AI segment revenue sets high bar (Source)

Valuation Extended
- Up 94% YTD creates elevated expectations priced in
- Any guidance miss could trigger sharp correction
- Options premiums expensive due to 62.5% implied volatility

Macro Headwinds
- Broader semiconductor cycle concerns could pressure entire sector
- Interest rate environment impacts growth stock valuations
- Geopolitical risks (China tensions, export controls) could impact sales

Technical Overhead
- $240 and $250 represent major gamma resistance requiring significant catalyst to break
- Profit-taking likely near round numbers
- Recent parabolic move could need time to consolidate

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The Bottom Line

Real talk: This $56M deep ITM call position tells us institutional money is making a serious long-term bet on AMD's AI chip future. Unlike speculative lottery tickets, these $150/$155 strikes are strategic positions that act like leveraged stock ownership - the trader gets 5 months to capture AMD's AI infrastructure buildout with OpenAI and Oracle.

The smart money thesis: AMD is winning share in the AI accelerator market at exactly the right time. The OpenAI partnership is a game-changer - potentially tens of billions in revenue starting 2027. These March 2026 calls bridge the gap to when those deployments begin materializing.

If you own AMD: Hold tight and let the AI story play out. The gamma chart shows strong support at $230 and $220 if we pull back. Consider taking partial profits above $250 at major resistance.

If you're watching: Wait for a pullback to the $220-225 support zone for better entry, OR use the December investor conferences (Dec 3 & 10) as potential catalysts for entry if Lisa Su provides strong guidance.

If you're bearish: Fighting this tape is dangerous with momentum this strong and catalysts lined up. If you must play the short side, wait for clear reversal signals above $250 resistance.

Mark your calendar:
- December 3: UBS Tech Conference - could provide AI guidance catalyst
- December 10: Barclays Conference - watch for analyst upgrades
- March 20, 2026: Option expiration - by then MI450 deployments should be underway

Final thought: When institutional money commits $56M to deep ITM calls with 5-month duration, they've done their homework on catalysts and positioning. This isn't speculation - it's conviction. The AI infrastructure wave is real, and AMD is positioning as the #2 player behind NVIDIA. Sometimes the best trade is following smart money.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Options can expire worthless.

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About AMD: Advanced Micro Devices designs digital semiconductors for PCs, gaming consoles, data centers (including artificial intelligence), industrial, and automotive applications with a $387 billion market cap in the semiconductors & related devices sector.