📅 November 28, 2025 | 🔥 HOLIDAY POSITIONING: MCD's $137M Post-Crisis Butterfly + GOOG's $49.4M Profit-Taking + 6 More Strategic Plays | ⚠️ Consumer Spending, AI Leadership & Crypto Volatility Dominate Thanksgiving Week

🎯 The $288M Black Friday Institutional Wave: McDonald's Leads

🔥 UNPRECEDENTED DIVERSITY: We tracked $288 MILLION in strategic options positioning across 8 sectors during Thanksgiving week - headlined by McDonald's historic $137M broken wing butterfly (biggest fast-food options bet post-E.coli recovery), Google's $49.4M dual-strategy profit-taking at gamma resistance, and ServiceNow's $64.4M put spread unwind ahead of December stock split vote. This isn't random holiday trading - institutions are positioning for consumer spending validation, AI leadership tests, and crypto volatility heading into year-end.

Total Flow Tracked: $288,000,000 💰 Most Strategic: MCD $137M broken wing butterfly (controlled downside bet on recovery trajectory) Tech Profit-Taking: GOOG $49.4M closing winners + opening shorts at exact gamma ceiling Biggest Unwind: NOW $64.4M exiting bearish position ahead of split vote + earnings Crypto Volatility: RIOT $9.8M bear call spread as mining economics deteriorate post-halving

📊 Market Snapshot: What's Happening Today

🚀 THE COMPLETE INSTITUTIONAL LINEUP: All 8 Strategic Positions

1. 🍔 MCD - The $137M E.coli Recovery Volatility Play

DECODE THE MASSIVE BROKEN WING BUTTERFLY POST-CRISIS POSITIONING

• Flow: $137M broken wing butterfly (profits from controlled consolidation $255-260 over next 21 days)
• What's Happening: Recovering from October 2024 E.coli outbreak that drove Q4 same-store sales down 1.4%, deploying $100M recovery investment with McValue platform launching January 7, 2025
• YTD Performance: Down from highs but stabilizing at $311.82 as crisis containment progresses
• The Big Question: Will institutional money profit if MCD consolidates 2-5% lower into McValue launch rather than immediate recovery?
• Catalyst: McValue platform launch January 7, 2025 expected to drive full Q2 2025 recovery per management guidance
• Expiration: Monthly OPEX December 19, 2025 (21 days)

2. 🌐 GOOG - The $49.4M Profit-Taking at Gamma Ceiling

ANALYZE WHY BIG MONEY EXITS $30M WINNERS AND OPENS $19.4M SHORTS AT EXACT RESISTANCE

• Flow: $49.4M dual-strategy ($30M closing profitable longs + $19.4M opening new shorts at $320 gamma ceiling)
• What's Happening: Gemini 3.0 achieved 1501 Elo score November 18 establishing AI leadership, but ad tech antitrust remedies trial September 22, 2025 threatens forced divestiture of majority revenue-generating advertising products
• YTD Performance: Trading at $320.28, hitting strongest gamma resistance level (501.42B gamma exposure)
• The Big Question: Do institutions expect AI victory can't overcome ad tech regulatory risk through December?
• Catalyst: Ad tech antitrust trial September 22, 2025 + AI product monetization timeline through December 19 expiration
• Expiration: Monthly OPEX/Quarterly Triple Witch December 19, 2025 (21 days)

3. 🔧 NOW - The $64.4M Derisking Before Dual Catalysts

UNDERSTAND WHY INSTITUTIONS EXIT $64.4M BEARISH BET AHEAD OF STOCK SPLIT

• Flow: $64.4M bear put spread being closed (institutions satisfied with profits after NOW down 32% from $1,198 peak)
• What's Happening: 5-for-1 stock split shareholder vote December 5 (7 days away) and Q4 2024 earnings January 29, 2026 (62 days away) creating dual volatility events driving position unwind
• YTD Performance: Down 32% from peak to $819.20, with trader eliminating delta exposure and assignment risk
• The Big Question: Does closing suggest institutions expect consolidation $780-$840 rather than continued downside?
• Catalyst: Stock split vote December 5 + Q4 earnings January 29, 2026
• Expiration: Monthly January 16, 2026 (49 days)

4. ⛏️ RIOT - The $9.8M Bear Bet on Mining Economics

SEE WHY SMART MONEY CAPS UPSIDE AS BITCOIN MINING COSTS EXPLODE 10X

• Flow: $9.8M bear call spread (expecting RIOT stays below $17.31 as post-halving economics deteriorate)
• What's Happening: Post-halving mining costs exploded 10x to $32,216 per BTC from $3,831 in 2023 with no positive catalyst before January 16 expiration (Q4 earnings don't report until February 24)
• YTD Performance: Struggling with deteriorated mining economics, with $16 short strike sitting exactly on strongest gamma support (24.16M total gamma)
• The Big Question: Can RIOT survive when mining costs exceed Bitcoin spot prices?
• Catalyst: Post-halving mining economics assessment through January, Q4 earnings February 24 (after expiration)
• Expiration: Monthly January 16, 2026 (49 days)

5. 💳 HOOD - The $11M Crypto Boom Bull Spread

DISCOVER THE SOPHISTICATED $3.2M DEBIT SPREAD TARGETING 20% UPSIDE

• Flow: $11M bull call spread (structured $3.2M net debit for 213% return potential capping downside)
• What's Happening: Q4 2024 earnings February 12, 2025 expected to deliver $1B+ revenue (up 100% YoY) riding explosive crypto volume growth of 500% month-over-month in November, plus Bitstamp acquisition closure expected H1 2025
• YTD Performance: Benefiting from crypto trading surge, with position expiring 8 days after earnings catalyst
• The Big Question: Can crypto momentum sustain through Q1 2026 or is this the cycle peak?
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings February 12, 2025 + Bitstamp acquisition closure H1 2025
• Expiration: Quarterly-type February 20, 2026 (84 days)

6. 💾 SNDK - The $8.7M S&P Inclusion + NAND Pricing Play

ANALYZE THE PERFECTLY-TIMED INSTITUTIONAL BET ON PASSIVE INFLOWS

• Flow: $8.7M concentrated December $240 call buying (3,950 contracts deployed in under 5 minutes at exact gamma resistance)
• What's Happening: S&P 500 inclusion November 28 driving $500M+ passive inflows, plus aggressive 50% NAND flash price increases for November 2025 contracts amid supply shortages extending through 2027
• YTD Performance: Trading at $234.25, needs only 2.5% move to reach $240 strike, 12% to breakeven at $262
• The Big Question: Will dual catalysts (index inclusion + NAND pricing) drive the 12% breakeven move in 21 days?
• Catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion effective November 28 + NAND pricing power through 2027
• Expiration: Monthly OPEX December 19, 2025 (21 days)

7. 👟 DECK - The $3M Contrarian Tariff Recovery Bet

UNPACK WHY SOMEONE PAID $3M FOR DEEP ITM CALLS AFTER 57% DECLINE

• Flow: $3M deep ITM call buy (300,000 shares controlled with only $0.19 time value, creating $26.6M exposure)
• What's Happening: Facing $150M tariff impact with 50% mitigation target through selective price increases and supplier negotiations, critical Black Friday-December holiday sales for UGG winter boots and HOKA gifting momentum testing brand pricing power
• YTD Performance: Down 57% to 12.7x P/E (37% sector discount), with trader betting selloff overdone
• The Big Question: Can DECK's brand power sustain pricing through tariffs during critical holiday season?
• Catalyst: Black Friday through December holiday sales results + tariff mitigation execution
• Expiration: Weekly December 5, 2025 (7 days)

8. 🚢 STNG - The $1.4M Tanker Fleet Modernization

EXPLORE THE LEVERAGED BET ON $180M FLEET EXPANSION

• Flow: $1.4M ITM call positioning (paid $4.50 for calls already $2.91 ITM, creating leveraged exposure with downside protection)
• What's Happening: Fleet modernization with $180M MR newbuilding purchase and first-ever VLCC entry ($256M crude tanker order), Q3 earnings expected late October following Q2's 26% beat
• YTD Performance: Trading at $57.33 with buyer securing position at strongest gamma support level ($55)
• The Big Question: Will fleet expansion drive earnings growth to justify current valuation?
• Catalyst: Q3 earnings announcement + fleet delivery timeline updates
• Expiration: Monthly/Quarterly December 19, 2025 (21 days)

⏰ URGENT: Critical Catalysts This Quarter

🚨 7 DAYS TO DECK BLACK FRIDAY TEST (December 5)

DECK Weekly Expiration - Holiday sales validation for UGG/HOKA pricing power under tariff pressure

⚡ 7 DAYS TO NOW SPLIT VOTE (December 5)

NOW Position Unwind - 5-for-1 stock split shareholder vote driving $64.4M derisking

🍔 21 DAYS TO DECEMBER OPEX WAVE

Multiple major positions expire December 19:

• MCD - December 19 - Broken wing butterfly resolution, profits if $255-260 consolidation
• GOOG - December 19 - Dual-strategy expires, tests $310-325 range-bound thesis
• SNDK - December 19 - S&P inclusion + NAND pricing validation
• STNG - December 19 - Fleet modernization story resolution

📊 January-February Earnings Catalysts

• NOW - January 29 - Q4 earnings post-split (62 days away)
• HOOD - February 12 - Q4 earnings testing $1B+ revenue milestone from crypto surge

🗓️ Product & Regulatory Milestones

• MCD - January 7, 2025 - McValue platform launch expected to complete E.coli recovery
• GOOG - September 22, 2025 - Ad tech antitrust remedies trial threatening advertising divestiture

💡 Smart Money Themes: What Institutions Are Betting

🍔 Consumer Spending Validation ($140M Combined: 49% of Flow)

Testing Brand Pricing Power Through Inflation:

• → MCD: $137M broken wing butterfly - E.coli recovery trajectory bet
• → DECK: $3M deep ITM calls - tariff pricing power through holiday season

🌐 Big Tech Profit-Taking & Derisking ($113.4M: 39% of Flow)

Institutions Locking Gains at Resistance:

• → GOOG: $49.4M closing winners + new shorts - profit-taking at gamma ceiling
• → NOW: $64.4M put spread unwind - eliminating delta before split vote

⛏️ Crypto Volatility Positioning ($20.8M Bullish vs Bearish Split)

Divergent Bets on Digital Assets:

• → HOOD: $11M bull spread - riding crypto trading volume explosion
• → RIOT: $9.8M bear spread - mining economics deterioration bet

💾 Semiconductor Pricing Power ($8.7M Concentrated Bet)

Index Inclusion + Supply Dynamics:

• → SNDK: $8.7M December calls - S&P 500 passive flows + NAND pricing surge

🎯 Your Action Plan: Strategies for Each Investor Type

🎰 YOLO Trader (High Risk/High Reward - Max 1-2% per position)

⚠️ EXTREME RISK - Binary outcomes, expect total loss

Primary High-Risk Plays:

1. Black Friday lottery: DECK weekly $160 calls - 7 days to holiday sales validation (EXTREME time decay)
   • Why: If UGG/HOKA pricing power holds through tariffs, stock gaps 15%+
   • Risk: Weekly expiration = total loss if flat/down, even slight gains decay rapidly
   • Exit: Take 100%+ gains immediately, don't hold past December 2
2. Crypto volatility: HOOD February call spreads - riding 500% MoM volume surge
   • Why: If crypto momentum sustains, $1B+ Q4 revenue drives major beat
   • Risk: Crypto reversal kills thesis, IV crush post-earnings February 12
   • Exit: Scale out 50% at 50% gain, close all before earnings unless thesis strengthens
3. Semiconductor moonshot: SNDK December $260 calls - S&P inclusion + NAND pricing
   • Why: Dual catalysts (passive inflows + pricing power) could drive 15%+ move
   • Risk: Already at gamma resistance, needs 12%+ move in 21 days to profit
   • Exit: Close at 100% gain or December 15 (whichever comes first)

Critical YOLO Rules:

• Never exceed 2% portfolio per position
• These are lottery tickets, not investments
• Accept 80%+ positions will expire worthless
• Take profits at 100%+ immediately

⚖️ Swing Trader (Balanced Risk - 3-5% per position, 2-8 week horizon)

Target 30-100% gains with defined catalysts

Primary Swing Plays:

1. Recovery catalyst basket: MCD butterfly structure - controlled downside into January 7 McValue launch
   • Setup: Replicate broken wing butterfly targeting $255-260 consolidation
   • Timeline: Hold through December 19 expiration, reassess if McValue launch delayed
   • Risk management: Close if MCD breaks below $250 (structure breaks down)
2. Crypto momentum play: HOOD bull call spreads - position into February 12 earnings
   • Setup: Buy January-February $38/$42 bull call spreads (copy institutional structure)
   • Timeline: Enter on pullbacks, hold through earnings (8 days post-catalyst for theta decay)
   • Risk management: Close 50% at 50% gain, stop loss at 30% of debit paid
3. Index inclusion play: SNDK December calls - ride passive inflows + NAND pricing
   • Setup: Buy December $240-250 call spreads to cap cost vs naked calls
   • Timeline: 21-day window to December 19, target exit December 10-12 for theta protection
   • Risk management: Take 75% profits at 60% gains, don't hold past December 15

Swing Trading Discipline:

• Stop loss at 30% of premium paid (non-negotiable)
• Take 50% position off at 50% gains, let rest run
• Close 5 days before expiration to avoid terminal theta decay
• Never add to losing positions without fresh catalyst

💰 Premium Collector (Income Strategy - Target 5-10% monthly)

Harvest elevated IV from institutional positioning

Primary Income Plays:

1. High IV harvesting: MCD covered calls - sell $320-325 strikes into December 19
   • Why: $137M butterfly creates volatility spike, harvest premium from upside cap
   • Structure: Own 100 shares MCD ($31,182), sell 1x December $320 call (collect $400-600)
   • Risk: Called away if MCD rallies >10% (acceptable if you want to take profits)
2. Calendar spread income: GOOG January/March calendars - copy institutional time spread strategy
   • Why: Institutions playing range-bound $310-325, benefit from theta differential
   • Structure: Sell January $325 calls, buy March $325 calls (net credit or small debit)
   • Risk: GOOG breaks out above $325 on AI momentum stronger than antitrust concerns
3. Contrarian premium: RIOT weekly short calls - sell into bearish positioning
   • Why: $9.8M bear spread validates downside bias, sell OTM calls for weekly income
   • Structure: Sell weekly $18-19 calls, roll weekly (mining economics deteriorating)
   • Risk: Bitcoin surprise rally destroys short call thesis

Premium Collection Rules:

• Only sell premium on stocks you're willing to own (MCD, GOOG quality)
• Close winners at 50-60% max profit (don't wait for full decay)
• Roll losing positions before they're deep ITM (protect capital)
• Maintain 20% cash reserve for margin calls (never fully deployed)

🛡️ Entry Level Investor (Learning Mode - Start Small)

Build experience before scaling capital

Recommended Starting Points:

1. Paper trade first (MANDATORY 30 days):
   • Practice MCD butterfly structure to learn multi-leg spreads
   • Track GOOG profit-taking to understand gamma resistance selling
   • Monitor HOOD bull spread to see how leverage amplifies gains/losses
2. Start with shares (avoid options initially):
   • MCD shares - quality consumer brand recovering from temporary crisis
   • GOOG shares - AI leadership despite antitrust headwinds
3. Educational focus (study these mechanics):
   • Broken wing butterfly: Study MCD's $137M structure to understand volatility plays
   • Profit-taking discipline: Observe GOOG closing $30M winners at resistance
   • Spread risk management: Track NOW's $64.4M unwind showing institutional derisking

Entry Level Critical Rules:

• Never risk more than 1% per position (even on shares initially)
• Don't trade weekly options until 100+ trades of experience
• Avoid earnings plays entirely for first year (IV crush will destroy you)
• If you don't understand Greeks (delta, theta, vega), study before any options trading

Learning Timeline:

• Months 1-3: Paper trading only, study institutional strategies
• Months 4-6: Real money in shares only (max 1% per position)
• Months 7-12: Begin simple spreads (bull call, bear put) with max 0.5% risk
• Year 2+: Graduate to complex structures after proven discipline

🚨 What Could Destroy These Trades

😱 If You're Following the Bulls

Consumer Spending Plays (MCD, DECK):

• Holiday sales disappoint as tariff-driven price increases kill demand
• MCD McValue launch delayed or ineffective at recapturing traffic post-E.coli
• DECK holiday season UGG/HOKA sales miss as consumer shifts to value brands
• Consumer confidence crashes in December, driving broader retail selloff

Crypto Momentum (HOOD):

• Bitcoin crashes below $50K on regulatory crackdown or exchange hacks
• Crypto trading volumes collapse December-January (seasonality pattern)
• Q4 earnings February 12 miss despite volume strength (margin compression)
• Bitstamp acquisition falls apart or regulatory issues delay close

Semiconductor Pricing (SNDK):

• S&P 500 inclusion flows already priced in (buy rumor, sell news)
• NAND pricing power collapses as supply glut emerges Q1 2026
• Hyperscaler AI spending slowdown reduces enterprise SSD demand
• Competition intensifies from Samsung/SK Hynix with aggressive pricing

Tanker Shipping (STNG):

• Crude oil demand slowdown reduces tanker utilization rates
• Fleet expansion costs higher than modeled (inflation on shipbuilding)
• Q3 earnings disappoint despite Q2 beat (inconsistent performance)

😰 If You're Following the Bears

Tech Shorts (GOOG):

• Gemini 3.0 monetization exceeds expectations, AI revenue ramps faster
• Ad tech antitrust settlement more favorable than expected (no forced divestiture)
• GOOG breaks above $325 gamma resistance on sustained AI momentum
• Google Cloud AI services drive surprise Q4 beat

Crypto Mining Bears (RIOT):

• Bitcoin surprise rally to $80K+ overcomes mining economics headwinds
• RIOT announces major AI cloud partnerships reducing BTC dependency
• Post-halving economics better than modeled (efficiency improvements)
• Short squeeze if crypto sentiment shifts dramatically positive

Derisking Plays (NOW):

• Stock split creates unexpected buying pressure (retail FOMO)
• Q4 earnings January 29 massive beat changes narrative
• NOW rallies >10% invalidating $780-840 consolidation range thesis

⏰ This Week's Critical Dates & Catalysts

📊 This Week (November 28 - December 5):

• November 28: SNDK S&P 500 inclusion effective - $500M+ passive inflows begin
• November 29: Black Friday sales kickoff - DECK UGG/HOKA pricing power test
• December 5: NOW 5-for-1 stock split vote - $64.4M position unwind catalyst
• December 5: DECK weekly options expire - 7-day holiday sales resolution

🗓️ December Catalysts (Critical Month):

• December 19: MASSIVE OPEX - MCD, GOOG, SNDK, STNG all expire same day
  • MCD broken wing butterfly profits if $255-260 consolidation achieved
  • GOOG dual-strategy tests $310-325 range thesis
  • SNDK S&P flows + NAND pricing validate in 21 days
  • STNG fleet expansion story resolves

📈 Q1 2026 Major Events:

• January 7, 2025: MCD McValue platform launch - full E.coli recovery catalyst
• January 16, 2026: NOW position expiry + RIOT bear spread expiry
• January 29, 2026: NOW Q4 earnings post-split (62 days away)
• February 12, 2025: HOOD Q4 earnings - $1B+ revenue test
• February 20, 2026: HOOD quarterly expiration (8 days after earnings)

🔬 Long-Term Regulatory/Product Milestones:

• H1 2025: HOOD Bitstamp acquisition closure expected
• Q2 2025: MCD full E.coli recovery projected per management
• September 22, 2025: GOOG ad tech antitrust remedies trial - forced divestiture risk
• Through 2027: SNDK NAND pricing power expected to sustain per supply dynamics

🎯 The Bottom Line: $288M Positioning for Year-End Catalysts

This Thanksgiving week flow represents sophisticated institutional positioning for major Q4/Q1 catalysts. $288 million spread across consumer recovery validation (MCD $137M E.coli comeback), big tech profit-taking (GOOG $49.4M at gamma ceiling), enterprise software derisking (NOW $64.4M split vote), and crypto volatility divergence (HOOD bullish vs RIOT bearish). The unified theme: institutions preparing for binary events rather than speculating on trends.

The biggest questions this week answers:

1. Can McDonald's $137M broken wing butterfly profit from controlled recovery into McValue launch? - Tests whether institutions correctly positioned for gradual healing vs immediate snapback
2. Why did Google institutions close $30M winners and open $19.4M shorts at exact gamma resistance? - Reveals smart money conviction that AI leadership can't overcome antitrust risk through December
3. Does ServiceNow's $64.4M unwind signal consolidation expectations around stock split? - Suggests derisking into dual volatility events rather than directional conviction
4. Will Robinhood's $11M bull spread capture crypto surge or get crushed by momentum reversal? - Tests whether 500% MoM volume growth sustainable through Q1 2026

Your move: This diverse Black Friday positioning suggests institutions hedging multiple scenarios rather than taking concentrated directional bets. Follow the themes that align with your risk tolerance - but remember these sophisticated multi-leg strategies may be parts of larger portfolios we can't see.

⚠️ CRITICAL REMINDER: Don't blindly follow institutional trades. They have hedges, research access, and risk management we don't see. DECK's 7-day weekly expiration is EXTREME risk. MCD's broken wing butterfly requires understanding volatility surfaces. Always practice proper position sizing and risk management.

🔗 Complete Analysis Links by Theme

🍔 Consumer Spending & Recovery Plays:

• MCD $137M Broken Wing Butterfly - E.coli Recovery Volatility Strategy
• DECK $3M Deep ITM Calls - Tariff Pricing Power Through Holiday Season

🌐 Big Tech Positioning & Derisking:

• GOOG $49.4M Dual Strategy - Profit-Taking at Gamma Ceiling
• NOW $64.4M Put Spread Unwind - Derisking Before Stock Split Vote

⛏️ Crypto & Digital Assets Volatility:

• HOOD $11M Bull Call Spread - Riding 500% Volume Surge
• RIOT $9.8M Bear Call Spread - Mining Economics Deterioration

💾 Semiconductor Pricing Power:

• SNDK $8.7M Concentrated Call Buy - S&P Inclusion + NAND Pricing

🚢 Industrial & Shipping:

• STNG $1.4M ITM Call Positioning - Fleet Modernization Bet

🏷️ Expiration Tags: Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & LEAPs

⚡ Weekly (December 5 - 7 Days)

• DECK - Black Friday through Cyber Monday holiday sales validation (EXTREME time decay risk)

📅 Monthly (December 19 - 21 Days)

• MCD - Broken wing butterfly profits from $255-260 consolidation
• GOOG - Dual-strategy tests range-bound $310-325 thesis
• SNDK - S&P 500 passive inflows + NAND pricing power
• STNG - Fleet modernization $180M MR + VLCC validation

🗓️ Quarterly/Monthly-Plus (January-February)

• NOW - January 16 expiry (49 days) - Split vote Dec 5 + earnings Jan 29
• RIOT - January 16 expiry (49 days) - Mining economics deterioration
• HOOD - February 20 expiry (84 days) - Q4 earnings Feb 12 + Bitstamp closure

🚀 No LEAPs This Cycle

All positions are short-to-medium term (7-84 days), reflecting tactical positioning around near-term catalysts rather than multi-year structural bets. Contrast to typical institutional LEAPS we see - this is event-driven trading.

⚠️ Risk Management: Learn From Today's Institutional Discipline

What Today's $288M Teaches About Position Management:

1. MCD's Broken Wing Butterfly Shows Volatility Discipline:

• Institutions aren't betting on explosive recovery - they profit from CONTROLLED consolidation
• Structure makes money if MCD drifts 2-5% lower into McValue launch
• Lesson: Don't need directional home runs; consistent base hits with defined risk win long-term

2. GOOG's Profit-Taking at Gamma Ceiling Shows Exit Discipline:

• Smart money closed $30M winners at exact resistance (501.42B gamma)
• Simultaneously opened $19.4M shorts - not abandoning thesis, just managing risk
• Lesson: Take profits when technical resistance aligns with fundamental concerns

3. NOW's $64.4M Unwind Shows Derisking Around Binary Events:

• Position up (NOW down 32% from peak), but two volatility events coming (split + earnings)
• Chose to exit rather than risk assignment or adverse move
• Lesson: Sometimes exiting with profits beats riding through uncertainty

4. RIOT Bear Spread Shows Precise Strike Selection:

• $16 short strike sits EXACTLY on strongest gamma support (24.16M exposure)
• Not random - technically sophisticated placement beyond directional view
• Lesson: Combine technical levels (gamma) with fundamental thesis for highest probability

Universal Risk Rules (Reinforced by Today's Flow):

Position Sizing (Non-Negotiable):

• YOLO: 1-2% max (even if you "love" the trade - DECK weekly is lottery ticket)
• Swing: 3-5% max (MCD butterfly, HOOD spreads)
• Premium: 10-15% total sold premium allocation
• Entry Level: 1% max until 100+ trades (learn before scaling)

Stop Losses (Prevent Disaster):

• Options: 20-30% loss = immediate exit (theta decay accelerates losses)
• Weekly options: 50% loss = exit (DECK 7-day expiry unforgiving)
• Spreads: 50% of max loss (don't let defined risk become total loss)

Profit-Taking (Prevent Regret):

• Take 50% at 50% gain (lock in base hit)
• Take another 25% at 100% gain (secure double)
• Trail final 25% with 20% stop (let winners run with protection)

Time Decay Awareness (Theta Kills):

• Weekly options lose 10-20% value PER DAY in final week (DECK extreme risk)
• Monthly options enter rapid decay 14-21 days before expiry (close by December 10 if holding December 19)
• Never hold options into expiration week without specific catalyst

Earnings Risk (IV Crush is Real):

• HOOD February 20 expiry is 8 days AFTER February 12 earnings
• IV will spike into earnings, then collapse even if direction correct
• Consider closing before earnings or using spreads to cap IV crush damage

Today's Specific Warnings:

McDonald's Complexity ($137M):

• Broken wing butterfly is NOT beginner strategy
• Requires understanding volatility surfaces, skew, and gamma exposure
• If you don't know how to construct this, DON'T trade it
• Study first, trade later

DECK Weekly Lottery ($3M):

• 7-day expiration = 95%+ probability of total loss
• Even if directionally correct, need 10%+ move to profit
• This is institutional speculation with <1% of portfolio
• Retail copying with 10% of portfolio = recipe for disaster

Crypto Divergence (HOOD bull vs RIOT bear):

• Institutions playing BOTH sides (not consensus directional)
• Suggests uncertainty about crypto trajectory Q4/Q1
• Don't assume crypto rally = buy everything; smart money hedging

⚠️ Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The unusual activity tracked here represents sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios not visible to retail traders. MCD's $137M broken wing butterfly requires advanced understanding of volatility trading. DECK's 7-day weekly expiration carries extreme time decay risk with 95%+ probability of total loss. GOOG's dual-strategy positioning suggests institutions expect range-bound trading, not explosive moves. Always practice proper risk management, never risk more than you can afford to lose completely, and strongly consider paper trading complex strategies for 30+ days before committing real capital. Entry level investors should avoid weekly options, earnings plays, and multi-leg spreads until achieving 100+ trades of experience. Past institutional positioning does not guarantee future performance.

📊 Flow Summary:

• Total Tracked: $288,000,000
• Largest Position: MCD $137M (48% of total flow - broken wing butterfly)
• Theme Leaders: Consumer Recovery $140M (49%), Tech Derisking $113.4M (39%), Crypto Volatility $20.8M (7%)
• Tickers Analyzed: 8 companies across consumer, technology, crypto, semiconductors, industrial
• Expiry Range: December 5, 2025 (weekly) through February 20, 2026 (quarterly)
• Key Insight: Tactical event-driven positioning (7-84 days) vs strategic multi-year LEAPs - institutions trading catalysts, not trends