AI Unusual Option Trades 2025-08-12: $9.9M Put Fortress - Smart Money's Massive Hedge!
Institutional options flow analysis for C3.ai (AI) from August 12, 2025. Premium analysis of unusual activity, smart money positioning, and trading opportunities across multiple risk levels.
🐻 C3.ai Options Alert: $9.9M PUT Fortress - Smart Money's Massive Hedge!
📅 August 13, 2025 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected | 🎯 Strategy: Large Put Spread / Downside Protection
🎯 The Quick Take
Holy moly! Smart money just dropped $9.9 MILLION on put protection for C3.ai, creating a massive 120,000-contract fortress! They bought the $17 and $15.50 strikes when the stock was at $16.455 - positioning for more pain after that brutal 25% earnings crash! This isn't speculation - this is institutional-sized downside protection! 🛡️
Translation for us regular folks: Someone's either protecting a massive long position or betting big that AI's post-earnings disaster isn't over. With 60K volume = OI on BOTH strikes, this is completely fresh positioning! 💎
📊 Options Tape Breakdown
🐋 WHALE ALERT: Massive Put Spread Detected!
📈 Trade Metrics Dashboard
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total Volume | 120,000 contracts | Institutional fortress building! |
| Total Premium | $9.9M | Smart money protection |
| Spot Price | $16.455 | Current stock price |
| Strikes Selected | $17 & $15.50 | Put spread structure |
| Days to Expiry | 9 days | 2025-08-22 expiration - VERY short! |
| Volume/OI Ratio | 1:1 on BOTH | Completely fresh positioning! |
🎬 The Actual Trade Tape
🕐 Time: 09:59:09 AM
📊 Order Type: Block trades (institutional size)
🎯 Execution: At MID (negotiated fills)
| Time | Side | Type | Strike | Expiry | Volume | Open Interest | Premium | Spot Price | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:59:09 | 🟢 BUY | 📉 PUT | $17 | 2025-08-22 | 60,000 | 60,000 | $7.1M | $16.455 | MID |
| 09:59:09 | 🟢 BUY | 📉 PUT | $15.50 | 2025-08-22 | 60,000 | 60,000 | $2.8M | $16.455 | MID |
⚡ Strategy Detection: PUT SPREAD / DOWNSIDE FORTRESS
What This Means in Plain English: - 🎯 TWO-STRIKE STRUCTURE: Long $17 puts + Long $15.50 puts = bearish spread or massive hedge - 💰 POST-EARNINGS POSITIONING: Coming right after that 25% crash on Aug 11! - 📊 VOLUME = OPEN INTEREST: Both strikes show 60K volume matching OI = brand new positions - ⏰ 9 DAYS TO EXPIRY: Ultra-short dated - expecting immediate action!
Translation: This is either a massive hedge on a long position OR someone's betting the pain isn't over after that "completely unacceptable" Q1 miss! The two-strike structure gives them protection from $17 down to $15.50! 💎
🎯 What The Smart Money Knows
The Setup They're Playing:
Entry Point: $17/$15.50 put spread (with stock at $16.455)
Intrinsic Value: $17 strike already 55 cents ITM!
Spread Width: $1.50 between strikes
Total Investment: $9.9M in premium
Breakeven (if spread): ~$16.27 on the $17 strike
First Target: $15.50 (lower strike)
Moon Target: $14.70 (Aug 11 low)
Why NOW? Post-Earnings Context:
- 💥 Fresh Off 25% Crash
- Stock plummeted from $22 to $16 on Aug 11
-
🏥 CEO Health Crisis & Leadership Uncertainty
- CEO Tom Siebel experiencing "significant visual impairment"
-
Board initiated CEO succession search
-
📊 September 3 Earnings Call Looming
- Full Q1 results scheduled for September 3
-
Market expecting more bad news?
-
🔴 Technical Breakdown
- Stock broke ALL major moving averages
- RSI at 33 signaling oversold but can get MORE oversold
- Next support at $14.70 (Aug 11 low)
💡 How Different Traders Should Play This
🎰 YOLO Traders
"I want to ride the bear train!" - Play: $16 2025-08-22 puts (slightly OTM) - Cost: ~$0.60 per contract - Risk: -100% if above $16 - Reward: +200-300% if hits $14.70 - Position Size: 1-2% of account MAX
🏄 Swing Traders
"I'll play the bounce or breakdown" - Play: Straddle at $16.50 (Sep expiry) - Cost: ~$2.50 per straddle - Why Better: Profits from big move either way - Position Size: 2-3% of account
💎 Premium Collectors
"I'll sell calls above resistance" - Play: Sell $18 calls for 2025-08-30 - Collect: $0.45 premium - Risk: Stock rallies above $18.45 - Win If: Stock stays below $18
👶 Entry Level Investors
"I'm learning, keep it simple" - Play: WAIT for confirmation - Watch: $14.70 support level - If Holds: Consider small long position - If Breaks: Stay away!
⚠️ The Risks (Let's Keep It Real)
What Could Go Wrong: - 📈 Dead Cat Bounce: Oversold stocks can rip higher fast - 📊 Sep 3 Surprise: Management could pull a rabbit out of the hat - 🏢 Microsoft Partnership: Could accelerate faster than expected - ⏰ Time Decay: These puts expire in 9 DAYS! - 🎯 It's Just a Hedge: Maybe they're long 500K shares!
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: This $9.9M put position is MASSIVE for a stock trading at $16: 1. Someone's protecting against further downside after that 25% crash 2. The $17 strike is already ITM - they want immediate protection 3. Fresh positioning (volume = OI) means this is NEW money positioning 4. 9-day expiry suggests they expect action FAST
This screams either massive hedge or conviction that more pain is coming!
📋 Your Action Checklist
✅ If Bearish: Consider smaller put positions, not $9.9M worth!
✅ Set Alerts: $14.70 (support), $17 (upper strike), $15.50 (lower strike)
✅ Mark Calendar: 2025-08-22 expiration, Sep 3 earnings
✅ Watch For: CEO replacement news, sales reorganization updates
✅ Risk Management: This could be a hedge - don't bet the farm!
📊 Quick Reference Card
| Metric | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | AI | C3.ai Inc. |
| Strategy | Put Spread/Hedge | Downside protection play |
| Premium | $9.9M | Institutional size |
| Contracts | 120,000 total | Massive position |
| Strikes | $17 & $15.50 | Spread structure |
| Spot Price | $16.455 | Current stock price |
| Option Price ($17) | $1.19 | Already ITM by $0.55 |
| Option Price ($15.50) | $0.46 | OTM protection |
| Expiration | 2025-08-22 | 9 days - VERY short! |
| Breakeven | $16.27 | On the $17 strike |
| Volume/OI | 1:1 both strikes | Completely fresh |
| Execution | MID price | Negotiated fills |
| Risk Level | 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4/5) | High risk short-dated puts |
🏷️ Tags for This Trade
Time Horizon: #Weekly (9 days)
Strategy Type: #PutSpread #WhaleFollowing
Risk Level: #HighRisk
Trader Types: #YOLO #SwingTrade #PremiumSelling
⚠️ Disclaimer: This $9.9M put position could be a hedge against a massive long position or genuine bearish conviction. The 9-day expiry makes this extremely time-sensitive. Remember that C3.ai just crashed 25% and is in oversold territory - dead cat bounces are common. Size your trades appropriately. This is education, not financial advice! 🎲