AI: MASSIVE $7.7 MILLION Bear Raid Hits C3ai - Are Institutions Bailing Out?
Someone just DUMPED **$77 MILLION** worth of C3.ai call options in a single trade - that's an absolutely VOLCANIC **10/10 unusual score**! 🌋 This monster sell is **80,323x larger than average** [AI](h...
📅 September 15, 2025 | 🔥 Volcanic Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just DUMPED $7.7 MILLION worth of C3.ai call options in a single trade - that's an absolutely VOLCANIC 10/10 unusual score! 🌋 This monster sell is 80,323x larger than average AI option trades - we've literally NEVER seen anything like this before! With AI down -49.93% YTD and trading at $17.43, institutional traders are aggressively selling the $17.50 November calls, betting this beaten-down AI stock won't recover anytime soon. This is serious "get out while you can" money making moves! 😰
🏢 Company Overview
C3.ai Inc (AI) is an enterprise artificial intelligence software company that provides software-as-a-service applications enabling customers to rapidly develop, deploy, and operate large-scale Enterprise AI applications.
- Market Cap: $2.26 billion
- Sector: Services - Prepackaged Software
- Current Price: $17.43
- YTD Performance: -49.93% 📉
The company offers over 130 turnkey Enterprise AI applications across industries, with particular strength in manufacturing, federal/defense, and energy sectors.
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
Here's the massive bear trade that hit the tape at 15:19:03:
| Time | Symbol | Side | Type | Strike | Expiration | Premium | Volume | OI | Size | Spot Price | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:19:03 | AI | BID | SELL | CALL | $17.5 | 2025-11-21 | $7.7M | 46K | 4K | 45,605 | $17.43 |
Option Symbol: AI20251121C17.5
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This trade scored a 10/10 VOLCANIC unusual score -
Here's the translation for us regular folks:
The Call Sell (Bearish Signal): - Collecting $1.68 per contract in premium - Selling 45,605 contracts (that's MASSIVE!) - Strike at $17.50 (barely above current price) - Expiration: November 21, 2025 (67 days away)
What the whale is saying: - "I'm collecting $7.7M betting AI won't rise above $17.50 by November" - This is either profit-taking on existing long calls OR opening a massive bearish position - Unusualness: 80,323x larger than average AI option trade!
Translation: Someone with SERIOUS institutional money is either: 1. Taking massive profits off the table (if they owned these calls) 2. Making a gigantic bearish bet that AI stays below $17.50 3. Knows something about upcoming earnings/guidance that we don't! 👀
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
📈 AI Year-to-Date Performance with Volume Analysis
Looking at the YTD performance, AI has been absolutely CRUSHED:
Key Metrics: - 📉 YTD Return: -49.93% (Ouch!) - 📊 Current Price: $17.36 - 🏁 Start of Year: $34.67 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -58.14% (brutal!) - 💔 Volatility: 5.14%
Technical Levels: - 📍 Current: $17.36 - 🎯 Strike Sold: $17.50 (just 0.8% above!) - 📉 YTD High: ~$35 (50% below peak) - 😰 Support: Looking for a floor around $15-16
The chart shows AI has been in a persistent downtrend all year, with brief rallies getting sold hard. The recent August-September period saw another leg down from $35 to current levels. Volume spikes on down days suggest continued distribution! 📉
🎪 Catalysts & Recent Developments
❌ Past Events (Already Happened)
Q1 2026 Earnings Disaster - August 2025 - Revenue plunged 19% YoY to $70.3M (missed guidance by ~$34M!) - First revenue guidance miss in several quarters - Free cash flow turned negative at -$34.3M - Multiple analyst downgrades followed
CEO Transition - September 1, 2025 - Founder Tom Siebel stepped down due to health issues - Stephen Ehikian took over as new CEO - Siebel called Q1 performance "completely unacceptable"
🔮 Upcoming Catalysts
Q2 2026 Earnings - November 2025 - Guidance suggests continued weakness: $72-80M revenue - This whale is betting earnings won't save the stock! - Consensus expects continued losses
C3 Transform Conference - November 2025 - Major product announcements expected - New Agentic AI platform showcase - Partnership updates
Microsoft Partnership Expansion - Ongoing - 73% of Q4 deals closed through partners - Targeting 600+ accounts with Microsoft - C3.ai apps now in Azure sales catalog
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
Based on this massive bearish flow and deteriorating fundamentals:
😰 Bear Case (50% chance)
Target: $12-$15 by year-end - Q2 earnings disappoint again - New CEO struggles with turnaround - Partner momentum fails to materialize - This whale's thesis plays out perfectly
😐 Base Case (35% chance)
Target: $16-$19 - Stock ranges sideways in current zone - Mixed results from partnership push - Slow stabilization under new leadership - November $17.50 calls expire worthless
🚀 Bull Case (15% chance)
Target: $20-$25 - Major partnership breakthrough - Agentic AI platform gains traction - Q2 shows revenue stabilization - This whale gets squeezed above $17.50!
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative Play: "Wait for the Bottom"
- Strategy: Watch for support at $15, then buy shares
- Why it works: Let the selling exhaust first
- Risk: Could miss the reversal
- Target: 20-30% bounce from established floor
⚖️ Balanced Play: "Sell the Bounce"
- Strategy: Sell $20 calls on any rally, 30-45 days out
- Premium: ~$0.50-$0.75 per contract
- Why it works: Follow the whale's bearish thesis
- Risk: Stock recovers stronger than expected
🚀 Aggressive Play: "Contrarian Long"
- Strategy: Buy $15 puts for November (hedge) + shares at $17
- Cost: ~$0.30 for puts + $17 for shares
- Why it works: Protected downside, unlimited upside
- Risk: Continued deterioration below $15
⚠️ Risk Factors
Let's keep it real - here's what could go wrong (or right):
Downside Risks: - Revenue Collapse: Q1 miss was brutal, Q2 could be worse - Leadership Uncertainty: New CEO needs time to stabilize - Cash Burn: Negative FCF is concerning at -$34M/quarter - Competition: Microsoft, Google, AWS all have competing solutions - Valuation: Still trading at high multiples despite losses
Upside Risks (for bears): - Partnership Surprise: Microsoft relationship could accelerate - AI Hype Return: Sector rotation back to AI stocks - Balance Sheet: Still has $712M in cash - Short Squeeze: Heavy short interest could fuel rally
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: Someone just made the BIGGEST bearish bet we've EVER seen on AI - a $7.7 million call sale that's 80,323x larger than average! This isn't just unusual, it's VOLCANIC! 🌋
Here's your action plan:
If you own AI: - Consider taking profits on any bounce toward $18-19 - This whale clearly doesn't believe in a near-term recovery - Watch the November $17.50 level like a hawk
If you're watching: - Let this selling pressure play out first - $15 could be interesting support for a bounce play - Q2 earnings in November will be make-or-break
If you're bearish: - You've got a $7.7 million whale on your side! - Consider selling calls on rallies - November expiration is your friend
Mark your calendar: November 21st (option expiration) - if AI is below $17.50, this whale keeps ALL $7.7 million in premium! 💰
Remember: When someone sells $7.7 million worth of calls on a stock that's already down 50%, they're either taking massive profits or they know something brutal is coming. Given AI's recent performance disaster and leadership chaos, this looks like smart money heading for the exits! 🚪💨
⚠️ Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. This whale-sized trade is extraordinary and represents institutional positioning. The 80,323x unusual score indicates this is unprecedented activity. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice - just one trader sharing what the big money is doing!