💥 AFRM Call Sweep Alert: Unusual Score 8.7/10 - Institutions Load $1.9M in OTM Strikes Ahead of Earnings

Quick Take

Heavy call buying hit AFRM tape at 12:02:56 with institutions sweeping $5.5M in premium across 12 blocks. Smart money selling near-the-money $80 strikes (expiring 8/22) while aggressively buying $87-$100 strikes for 8/29 expiry - classic pre-earnings positioning for explosive upside beyond consolidation zone.

YTD Performance Snapshot

AFRM has delivered +26.02% YTD return, currently trading at $78.78 after recovering from April lows near $36. The stock shows strong momentum with higher lows established since May, suggesting accumulation phase ahead of multiple catalysts.

Key Price Levels: - Current: $78.78 - YTD High: ~$80 (February peak) - YTD Low: ~$36 (April bottom) - Resistance: $80-82 zone - Support: $70-72 zone

The Options Tape Breakdown

Complete Trade Data (12:02:56 timestamp cluster)

Time	Symbol	Side	Buy/Sell	C/P	Expiration	Premium	Strike	Volume	OI	Size	Spot	Option Price
12:02:56	AFRM	BELOW BID	SELL	CALL	2025-08-22	$1M	80	12K	12K	6,400	$79.18	$1.63
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$1.9M	87	11K	108	6,400	$79.18	$2.97
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$410K	100	9.6K	75	6,400	$79.18	$0.64
12:02:56	AFRM	BELOW BID	SELL	CALL	2025-08-22	$260K	80	5.4K	12K	1,597	$79.18	$1.63
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$474K	87	3.2K	108	1,597	$79.18	$2.97
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$474K	87	1.6K	108	1,597	$79.18	$2.97
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$102K	100	3.2K	75	1,597	$79.18	$0.64
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$102K	100	1.6K	75	1,597	$79.18	$0.64
12:02:56	AFRM	BELOW BID	SELL	CALL	2025-08-22	$260K	80	3.8K	12K	1,597	$79.18	$1.63
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$68K	100	11K	75	1,066	$79.18	$0.64
12:02:56	AFRM	BELOW BID	SELL	CALL	2025-08-22	$174K	80	13K	12K	1,066	$79.18	$1.63
12:02:56	AFRM	MID	BUY	CALL	2025-08-29	$317K	87	4.3K	108	1,066	$79.18	$2.97

Block Trade Analysis (12:02:56 timestamp cluster)

SELLS (Near-Term Hedging): - $80 Strike (8/22 expiry): - 4 blocks totaling 34.6K contracts - Premium collected: $1.69M - Trade type: BELOW BID sells - Interpretation: Overwriting or premium harvesting

BUYS (Bullish Positioning): - $87 Strike (8/29 expiry): - 5 blocks totaling 24.8K contracts
- Premium paid: $2.98M - Trade type: MID buys - Interpretation: Aggressive upside speculation

• $100 Strike (8/29 expiry):
• 5 blocks totaling 28.2K contracts
• Premium paid: $754K
• Trade type: MID buys
• Interpretation: Lottery ticket positioning

Trade Flow Metrics

• Total Volume: 87.6K contracts
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 1.53:1 (bullish skew)
• Premium Flow: $5.42M total ($3.73M buys vs $1.69M sells)
• Spot Reference: $79.18 at execution
• Open Interest Context: Low OI on buy strikes (75-108) vs high OI on sell strikes (12K) indicates fresh positioning

Unusual Score Meter: 8.7/10

Score Breakdown:

• Premium Size (9/10): $1.9M single block premium on $87 calls - institutional size
• Strike Selection (8/10): 10%+ OTM targeting post-earnings move
• Timing Factor (9/10): Positioned 10 days before Q4 earnings (8/28)
• Volume Spike (8/10): 12 blocks in single timestamp - coordinated execution
• Directional Conviction (9/10): Clear bullish skew with calendar spread characteristics

Verdict: Smart money is financing upside lottery tickets by selling premium at current resistance. Classic pre-catalyst positioning pattern.

Catalyst Calendar & Market Movers

Immediate Term (Next 30 Days)

• August 28, 2025 (AMC): Q4 FY25 Earnings Call^29^31 - Street expects first GAAP profitable quarter with EPS $0.62^2
• September 2025: Fed's first expected rate cut^34 - Direct benefit to AFRM's funding costs

Near-Term Growth Drivers (Q3-Q4 2025)

• Apple Pay Integration: iOS 18 rollout enabling BNPL at any merchant^10^14 - Massive TAM expansion
• Stripe Terminal: >1M in-store POS devices going live^21^22 - Offline GMV inflection point
• Costco Holiday Push: BNPL for $500-$17,500 purchases to 129M members^23^26 - High-ticket volume spike expected

Regulatory & Funding Tailwinds

• CFPB Backing Off: Trump-era CFPB shelved June 2024 BNPL rule^47^49 - Regulatory clarity improving
• $4B Sixth Street Deal: Fresh forward-flow funding through 2028^5^9 - Supports >$20B originations

Trading Playbook

Strategy 1: Calendar Spread Mimic

Setup: Sell 8/22 $80C, Buy 8/29 $87C - Captures IV crush on near-term - Maintains upside exposure through earnings - Risk: $700 per spread

Strategy 2: Outright Speculation

Setup: Buy 8/29 $87C or $100C - Pure directional play on earnings beat - Lower capital requirement - Risk: 100% premium loss if stock <$87

Strategy 3: Risk Reversal

Setup: Sell 8/29 $75P, Buy 8/29 $87C - Synthetic long with leverage - Minimal upfront cost - Risk: Assignment below $75

The Trader's Corner

Today's flow screams institutional conviction. The simultaneous execution across 12 blocks at identical timestamps isn't retail - it's coordinated desk trading. The pattern suggests:

1. Near-term consolidation expected: Hence the $80 strike sales
2. Post-earnings breakout anticipated: Heavy $87-$100 buying
3. Capital efficiency play: Using near-dated premium to finance longer-dated upside

The 94% repeat customer metric from Q3^28 combined with Apple Pay/Stripe integrations^10^21 creates a perfect storm for GMV acceleration. With active consumers at 22 million (+10% y/y) and GMV hitting $8.6 billion (+36% y/y)^1, the company's RLTC margin of 4.1% sits comfortably within its 3-4% target range^2.

Delinquencies remain below 1% on the core pay-in-four product^3, significantly better than credit card averages. The May 2025 securitization garnered 'A' ratings from Fitch with >33% AAA subordination^37, supporting cheap term funding even before anticipated Fed cuts.

If AFRM delivers on its FY26 guidance with positive GAAP EPS^2, these $100 strikes could go from $0.64 to $5+ overnight.

Bottom Line: Follow the smart money but size appropriately. This setup has home-run potential but carries earnings binary risk.

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Options flow data as of August 18, 2025, 12:02:56 ET. Not financial advice.