ABNB: Massive Hedging Flow Ahead of November Earnings!
Someone just loaded up **$8 MILLION** in [ABNB](https://www.ainvest.com/stocks/NASDAQ-ABNB/?utm_source=optionlabs&utm_medium=post) puts right before the crucial Q3 earnings on November 6! 🐋 This monst...
📅 September 15, 2025 | 🔥 Extreme Unusual Activity Detected
🎯 The Quick Take
Someone just loaded up huge hedging flow in ABNB puts right before the crucial Q3 earnings on November 6! 🐋 This monster trade scored a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - activity that's 2,292x larger than average and happens maybe once a year! With ABNB down -8.32% YTD to $120.54 and regulatory battles heating up in NYC and Europe, this whale is positioning for potential downside ahead of a make-or-break earnings report.
🏘️ Company Overview
Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) is the world's largest online alternative accommodation platform: - Description: Global booking services for 8M+ active listings from 5M+ hosts across nearly every country - Market Cap: $75.0 billion - Sector: Services to Dwellings & Other Buildings - Founded: 2008 | Listed: December 2020
💰 The Option Flow Breakdown
📊 What Just Happened
Let me break down this massive bearish positioning that hit the tape:
| Time | Symbol | Side | Type | Expiration | Premium | Strike | Volume | OI | Size | Spot | Option Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $2.6M | $145 | 2.4K | 313 | 1,080 | $120.72 | $24.35 |
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2026-01-16 | $317K | $200 | 40 | 9 | 40 | $120.72 | $79.35 |
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2026-01-16 | $653K | $180 | 110 | 27 | 110 | $120.72 | $59.35 |
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2026-01-16 | $8M | $170 | 1.6K | 635 | 1,630 | $120.72 | $49.35 |
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $859K | $155 | 450 | 69 | 250 | $120.72 | $34.35 |
| 15:10:05 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $6M | $140 | 4.2K | 2.2K | 3,110 | $120.72 | $19.35 |
| 14:27:33 | ABNB | SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $2.2M | $140 | 1.1K | 2.2K | 1,100 | $120.21 | $19.75 |
| 14:27:33 | ABNB | SELL | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $695K | $155 | 200 | 69 | 200 | $120.21 | $34.75 |
| 14:27:33 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2025-09-19 | $3.2M | $145 | 1.3K | 313 | 1,300 | $120.21 | $24.75 |
| 14:27:21 | ABNB | BUY | PUT | 2027-01-15 | $347K | $100 | 400 | 2.5K | 400 | $120.21 | $8.68 |
🤓 What This Actually Means
Real talk: This trade scored a 9/10 EXTREME unusual score - that's "happens maybe once a year" territory! 🌋
Here's the translation for us regular folks:
The Big Picture: - Total bearish premium deployed: ~$18M across multiple strikes - The whale is most aggressive on the $170 strike Jan 2026 puts ($8M position!) - Multiple expiration dates: September 2025, January 2026, and even January 2027 - Earlier sells at 14:27 suggest position rolling/adjustment
Strike Analysis: - $170 Put (Jan 2026): The monster $8M bet - expecting ABNB below $120 (current price) - $140-$145 Puts (Sept): Near-term protection for Q3 earnings - $180-$200 Puts (Jan 2026): Deep OTM catastrophe insurance
Unusualness Factor: - 2,292x larger than average ABNB option trade! - Only 3 trades this size in the last 30 days - Percentile rank: 100% (literally the biggest we've seen!)
Translation: Someone with DEEP pockets is betting massive that ABNB faces serious headwinds. This isn't hedging - this is conviction! 😰
📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up
📈 ABNB Year-to-Date Performance with Volume Analysis
Looking at the YTD performance, ABNB is struggling:
Key Metrics: - 📉 YTD Return: -8.32% (underperforming the market) - 📊 Current Price: $120.54 - 📈 Start of Year: $131.48 - 🔴 Max Drawdown: -34.52% (brutal!) - 💪 Volatility: 8.96%
Technical Levels: - 🎯 Current: $120.54 - 😰 Key Put Strikes: $170 (41% above), $145 (20% above), $140 (16% above) - 🛡️ Support Zone: $100-105 (2027 LEAP strike area) - 💔 Year Low Territory: Testing recent lows
The chart shows ABNB has been in a downtrend since March, with failed rallies and lower highs. This whale is betting the pain continues! 📉
🎪 Catalysts
Upcoming Events 🔮
Q3 2025 Earnings - November 6, 2025 (After Market)
- Street expecting EPS of $2.30
- Critical guidance on Q4 margin compression
- Focus on travel demand normalization
Airbnb Services & Experiences 2.0 - May 2025 Launch
- Full roll-out of new revenue streams
- $200M allocated to new offerings
- Could add $1B revenue by 2027
FIFA World Cup 2026 Partnership
- Official Alternative Accommodation partner
- Deloitte projects $3.6B incremental host revenue
- 380,000 guest arrivals expected
LA Olympics 2028
- TOP Olympic Partner through 2028
- Host-driven inventory strategy
Regulatory Headwinds 🚨
New York City Local Law 18
- De facto cap on short-term rental supply
- Fines up to $5k/day for violations
- Lobbying for Intro 1107 reform
EU Regulation 2024/1028
- Mandatory host-registration numbers
- Platform data-sharing requirements
- Roll-out across member states by mid-2026
Past Events ✅
$6B Share Buyback Authorization (Q2 2025)
- Management cites undervaluation at P/E 29x
- Could retire ~8% of shares by 2026
🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities
😰 Bear Case (45% chance) - Target: $95-100
- Regulatory crackdowns intensify in major cities
- Travel demand continues to normalize post-pandemic
- Margin compression from new investments
- This is what our whale is betting on!
😐 Base Case (40% chance) - Target: $115-125
- Steady state with mixed regulatory outcomes
- FIFA/Olympics provide episodic boosts
- Services launch partially successful
🚀 Bull Case (15% chance) - Target: $145-160
- Regulatory moderation in NYC/EU
- AI-first app drives margin expansion
- Experiences & Services exceed expectations
💡 Trading Ideas
🛡️ Conservative: "Whale Watch Strategy"
- Wait for Q3 earnings before entering
- If ABNB drops below $110, consider selling cash-secured puts at $100
- Collect premium while waiting for a better entry
- Risk: Assignment at $100 (17% below current)
⚖️ Balanced: "Follow the Smart Money"
- Buy ABNB20250919P140 at ~$19.35
- Hedge with selling ABNB20250919P125 at ~$10
- Net cost: ~$9.35 for $15 spread
- Max profit: $5.65 (60% return) if ABNB below $125
🚀 Aggressive: "YOLO Bear Raid"
- Buy ABNB20260116P170 at ~$49.35 (following the whale)
- This needs ABNB below $120 to profit
- High risk, high reward play
- Only for those who believe in significant downside
⚠️ Risk Factors
What could make this bearish bet go wrong:
- 🏠 NYC regulatory reform (Intro 1107) could unlock urban supply
- 🌍 FIFA World Cup 2026 could drive massive booking surge
- 💵 $6B buyback program provides price support
- 🤖 AI-first platform could expand margins faster than expected
- 📈 Travel rebound stronger than anticipated
🎯 The Bottom Line
Real talk: When someone drops $8 MILLION on puts with a 9/10 unusual score, you pay attention! 👀 This isn't casual hedging - this is a massive directional bet that ABNB faces serious challenges ahead.
Here's the deal:
If you own ABNB: - Consider protective puts or trimming position before Q3 earnings - Watch the $120 support level closely - Set stop losses if you're not comfortable with potential downside
If you're watching: - Mark November 6 earnings on your calendar - Look for entry below $110 if bearish thesis plays out - Consider the contrarian bull case if oversold
If you're bearish: - The whale's positioning suggests downside to $100-120 range - September puts for earnings play, January 2026 for longer-term view - Size appropriately - this is still a $75B company!
The lesson: Institutional money is betting BIG against travel's post-pandemic darling. With regulatory battles, margin pressures, and tough comps ahead, this whale might be onto something. But remember - even whales can be wrong! Trade smart, not hard! 💪
Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.